A freebie in 2013?

[Oldbones]

From time to time, especially when discussing South Carolina's 2017 championship, folks on the BY remind us that the 2012-2013 UCONN team was also very lucky not to have to face Baylor in the NCAA Tournament, somehow getting a freebie. I'm not so sure. Here are some things to consider:

2013 UCONN team obliterated the non-Baylor field in the NCAA Tournament, winning by 68, 33, 26, 30, 18, and then by 33 in the Championship Game against the recent vanquishers of Baylor. UCONN had six current or future All-Americans, plus Kiah Stokes. After missing the Idaho game, Stewie emerged as a force to be reckoned with, earning the first of four FF MOPs.

There was never much difference anyhow between UCONN and Baylor in their head-to head matches during the Griner Era. After a 20-point win by UCONN in 2010, the differences were, 1(W), 5(L) and 6(L). Even the 2011-2012 40-0 Baylor team won by only 5, one of three games they won that year by 5 or fewer.

Louisville was not the only 2012-2013 loss for Baylor. Stanford beat them on a neutral court. A few weeks later, UCONN beat Stanford 61-35 on their home court. Yes, Louisville had an unconscious shooting game against Baylor, but it happens, as it did on 4/3/2011 in Indianapolis ND vs. UCONN. Ouch. I suggest that UCONN, with one occurrence of over .500 shooting against them in 15 years, would not have let that happened. In fact, a week later, they didn't.

Baylor struggled other times to close the deal in the NCAA during the Griner Era, losing to UCONN in 2010, losing in 2011 to an Aggie team they beat several times during the same season, and then the loss to Louisville in 2013. Only in 2012 NCAAs, where they notably did not have to play UCONN either, courtesy of ND, did they finish on top.

The 2013Tournament UCONN was clearly a different team from the one that lost its own BE Tournament a few weeks earlier. In addition to the scores noted above, let's look at the Notre Dame games: after previously losing to them by 1, 9(OT) and 2, in each case letting the game get away at the very end, UCONN beat ND handily, by 18, in the NCAAs, coasting home from a 20+ point mid-4Q lead, in a game they could have won by 30. That's a 20-plus point improvement against ND. UCONN lost to Baylor by six points a few weeks before the Tournament, a game that got away at the end. Couldn't this "new" UCONN team have had a similar improvement against Baylor?

 

[RegisteredUconn]

One thing that stood out to me in that N.D. series that year, where the Huskies went 1-3 against the Irish, was that UConn outscored N.D. in total despite losing 3 of the 4 games. Arguable, we could have gone at least 3-1 if we could have shut the door when leading late.

 

[cbraarj]

Uconn beats Baylor in 2013 NC game!

 

[bballnut90]

From time to time, especially when discussing South Carolina's 2017 championship, folks on the BY remind us that the 2012-2013 UCONN team was also very lucky not to have to face Baylor in the NCAA Tournament, somehow getting a freebie. I'm not so sure. Here are some things to consider:

2013 UCONN team obliterated the non-Baylor field in the NCAA Tournament, winning by 68, 33, 26, 30, 18, and then by 33 in the Championship Game against the recent vanquishers of Baylor. UCONN had six current or future All-Americans, plus Kiah Stokes. After missing the Idaho game, Stewie emerged as a force to be reckoned with, earning the first of four FF MOPs.

There was never much difference anyhow between UCONN and Baylor in their head-to head matches during the Griner Era. After a 20-point win by UCONN in 2010, the differences were, 1(W), 5(L) and 6(L). Even the 2011-2012 40-0 Baylor team won by only 5, one of three games they won that year by 5 or fewer.

Louisville was not the only 2012-2013 loss for Baylor. Stanford beat them on a neutral court. A few weeks later, UCONN beat Stanford 61-35 on their home court. Yes, Louisville had an unconscious shooting game against Baylor, but it happens, as it did on 4/3/2011 in Indianapolis ND vs. UCONN. Ouch. I suggest that UCONN, with one occurrence of over .500 shooting against them in 15 years, would not have let that happened. In fact, a week later, they didn't.

Baylor struggled other times to close the deal in the NCAA during the Griner Era, losing to UCONN in 2010, losing in 2011 to an Aggie team they beat several times during the same season, and then the loss to Louisville in 2013. Only in 2012 NCAAs, where they notably did not have to play UCONN either, courtesy of ND, did they finish on top.

The 2013Tournament UCONN was clearly a different team from the one that lost its own BE Tournament a few weeks earlier. In addition to the scores noted above, let's look at the Notre Dame games: after previously losing to them by 1, 9(OT) and 2, in each case letting the game get away at the very end, UCONN beat ND handily, by 18, in the NCAAs, coasting home from a 20+ point mid-4Q lead, in a game they could have won by 30. That's a 20-plus point improvement against ND. UCONN lost to Baylor by six points a few weeks before the Tournament, a game that got away at the end. Couldn't this "new" UCONN team have had a similar improvement against Baylor?

I don't think it was a slam dunk that Baylor beats UCONN in the Finals, but it made UCONN's path to a title MUCH easier as Baylor was the heavy favorite to repeat. No one had been successful in stopping Griner her last 2 years at Baylor and she had massive games against Dolson and UCONN both seasons. While Notre Dame had squeaked out wins over the Huskies and made plays down the stretch, Baylor just appeared to be a better team than Connecticut during 2013 aside from the Louisville game.

I also don't think it's accurate to bring up 2010 or 2011 vs. UCONN...they had Maya Moore both years and both teams were significantly different in 2013 in terms of roster makeup and experience. In 2010 it was a long shot that Baylor would even make the Final Four, so to get there alone was an accomplishment rather than a failure to seal the deal. Sims was also injured in the Stanford game, so I wouldn't overanalyze that. Moreover, UCONN historically beats teams in a more dominating fashion than their competition, even if the competition is better than UCONN in a head to head matchup.

Also, you're exaggerating UCONN's win over Notre Dame in 2013. It was never a 20 point game on the verge of being a 30 point blowout. The largest lead was very late by 19 points, and it was just a 6 point game with 6 minutes to go. More competitive than you're making it out to be. Notre Dame's big 3 (Diggins/McBride/Loyd) all really struggled shooting the ball (13-52 combined) and missed several looks they usually make. UCONN was the better team that night, no doubt, but I don't think UCONN had improved to the point of being 20 points better than ND as much as they were on that night and played their best game while ND didn't.

To get back on topic, as far as fans bringing up how SC lucked out by not having to face UCONN last year...I think they 100% caught a much larger break than UCONN did in 2013. SC has never been able to keep a game competitive against Connecticut and UCONN had a much better year as a whole than SC did up to that point. If they did play each other, I personally would've put huge betting money on a UCONN victory. If UCONN played Baylor in 2013, I would've bet on Baylor, but I think it would've been a more competitive game than SC/UCONN.

At the end of the day, Baylor didn't get the job done against Louisville which opened up an easier door for UCONN, and UCONN didn't get the job done against Mississippi State in 2017 which opened up the door for SC. Both 2013 UCONN and 2017 South Carolina were deserving champions.