A Few Quick Thoughts

[businesslawyer]

1. WVU out and the XII stopping at X means the Big East will survive, for now. Boise will join -- once they are in the BCS club it's going to be very difficult for them to be pushed out of it, and they know this. There will be a planned 12 team Big East football league for 2014.

2. ND has no interest whatsoever in ever playing sports in the new, less prestigious Big East. They will use the Big East's survival to give them more time to negotiate their best deal without seeming desperate, but in 15 months they will have announced they are leaving.

3. Most importantly, if I am Big East commissioner, the moment I have my conference rebuilt I am shopping my TV rights to Fox and Comcast. That will be a breach of the Big East's contract with ESPN. So what? What is ESPN going to do -- sue the Big East? Given what they've done and what DeFillippo is quoted as saying they've done? If I'm representing ESPN, there is no way, no way, I let ESPN initiate that law suit. I either negotiate a deal that gets the Big East to reup with ESPN or I let them go, but you let sleeping dogs lie.

 

[UConnJim]

I disagree. ND is staying in the BE for non-football sports. A basketball league with Louisville, UConn, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Nova, Marquette, ND,... is a decent conference. If Louisville left, I would agree with you. ND got exactly what they wanted and I would not be surprised if ND has agreed to play Texas in football to keep the Big 12 at 10.

 

[huskyrob1]

Boise State would be crazy to join this league IMO. Everyone is being cordial and nicey nice to Marinade on his bus tour of the Rockies and I'm sure he is eating well but I think the only thing he gets out of this is free veal marsala and some antipast. If Marinade had been a football guy maybe he would get some real positive feedback but they all know where he came from, that he's a basketball guy, and that no matter what he says he is beholden to the bball onlys.

 

[zls44]

3. Most importantly, if I am Big East commissioner, the moment I have my conference rebuilt I am shopping my TV rights to Fox and Comcast. That will be a breach of the Big East's contract with ESPN. So what? What is ESPN going to do -- sue the Big East? Given what they've done and what DeFillippo is quoted as saying they've done? If I'm representing ESPN, there is no way, no way, I let ESPN initiate that law suit. I either negotiate a deal that gets the Big East to reup with ESPN or I let them go, but you let sleeping dogs lie.

This is, word for word, what C-USA did. They got a deal with Fox for a conference package, negotiating it during the exclusive window with ESPN. ESPN sued anyway. Know what the settlement was? ESPN got the FB title game.

ESPN has one C-USA game all year- and it's the highest-rated one. They got the only game worth anything from C-USA, without having to broadcast Rice-Tulane to get it. Fox got squeezed out of the highest-profile event C-USA has.

I doubt Fox or Comcast want to get burned twice.

 

[businesslawyer]

But there is a huge, huge difference. There is a public statement against interest by an AD saying ESPN acted in a manner that violated its conference with the Big East. Unless you can point me to a comparable fact in the CUSA situation.

ESPN is not initiating suit against the Big East. It would be a lose, lose proposition.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

I disagree. ND is staying in the BE for non-football sports. A basketball league with Louisville, UConn, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Nova, Marquette, ND,... is a decent conference. If Louisville left, I would agree with you. ND got exactly what they wanted and I would not be surprised if ND has agreed to play Texas in football to keep the Big 12 at 10.

I don't think ND is leaving either. ND is getting exactly what they want and will not be giving up football independence any time soon.

 

[UConnJim]

Boise State would be crazy to join this league IMO. Everyone is being cordial and nicey nice to Marinade on his bus tour of the Rockies and I'm sure he is eating well but I think the only thing he gets out of this is free veal marsala and some antipast. If Marinade had been a football guy maybe he would get some real positive feedback but they all know where he came from, that he's a basketball guy, and that no matter what he says he is beholden to the bball onlys.

Boise St would be crazy to not join this conference for football. Basically, the new BE will take the remaining BE schools plus the best of CUSA and the MWC and forming a conference with an automatic BCS bid and a championship game. The MWC/CUSA merger is better than this?

 

[zls44]

But there is a huge, huge difference. There is a public statement against interest by an AD saying ESPN acted in a manner that violated its conference with the Big East. Unless you can point me to a comparable fact in the CUSA situation.

ESPN is not initiating suit against the Big East. It would be a lose, lose proposition.

The theory is that ESPN is trying to destroy the Big East, so that it has major TV deals with all the conferences funneling into the BCS, with the Big East losing a bid that goes at-large. It wants to totally control football TV under this argument.

But, if the Big East keeps it's BCS bid, and you think ESPN wants to control all the BCS TV, then why wouldn't they want to keep the Big East? The logic flaws at that point.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

Boise St would be crazy to not join this conference for football. Basically, the new BE will take the remaining BE schools plus the best of CUSA and the MWC and forming a conference with an automatic BCS bid and a championship game. The MWC/CUSA merger is better than this?

The MW CUSA merger if pretty much doomed. It may or may not even be worth it at this point. That is why they made up that story about the Big East being interested in joining them even though the Big East has no incentive to even entertain the idea.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

The theory is that ESPN is trying to destroy the Big East, so that it has major TV deals with all the conferences funneling into the BCS, with the Big East losing a bid that goes at-large. It wants to totally control football TV under this argument.

But, if the Big East keeps it's BCS bid, and you think ESPN wants to control all the BCS TV, then why wouldn't they want to keep the Big East? The logic flaws at that point.

I think ESPN will still bid on the new Big East and may still get a portion of it but I think Fox and Comcast will both get a piece as well.

 

[HuskyHawk]

BL is talking about the discovery process. If ESPN has anything in its closet it doesn't want the BE to see, they can't afford to litigate. The counter-claim from the BE would make the original ESPN suit look like a drop in the bucket. Civil antitrust suits get treble damages under the Clayton act. Then the DOJ and FTC would jump in as well, and start looking at everything they've ever done.

This leads me to the Big East 27 month period. So if a school just breaks that contract, then what? The BE can sue, but will not likely get a permanent injunction, at least not beyond the 2012 season. So what would the damages be? Probably hard to prove and not so great as to prevent a school like WVU from jumping now. If they do, and Pitt and Syracuse take the same approach. The BE AQ status is gone no matter who they add, as we won't meet the 2 year requirement.

 

[businesslawyer]

If the Big East is not destroyed, they will want it. I raised the possibility that they will end up outbidding Comcast and Fox. My statement was merely a legal one, but one I fully stand by: that ESPN is not going to sue the Big East for breaking the contract by violating the no-shop provision because they have far more to lose in that lawsuit than they have to gain.

 

[CTMike]

Can Boise State (or any potential additions) build in safeguards such that if BE membership changes further before they officially join the conference, they can reevaluate their commitments?

 

[businesslawyer]

This leads me to the Big East 27 month period. So if a school just breaks that contract, then what?

1. A good litigator would have a chance of winning a suit for the Big East against ESPN with no evidence beyond the DeFillipo quote. And there will be more evidence.

2. No school is leaving the Big EAst football conference early if it keeps the Big EAst from meeting the 8 teams together for 2 years test. The damages for killing the Big EAst by breaching that obligation would be far, far in excess of what anyone has to gain by doing so. And I think the chances for an injunction would, actually be very good. The only way teams are leaving early is if the Big East stops playing football altogether, or if the BCS conferences change the BCS rules so the Big East stays an AQ despite the lack of continuity. Maybe that happens, as the SEC, Big XII and ACC would all like this to happen quickly.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

1. A good litigator would have a chance of winning a suit for the Big East against ESPN with no evidence beyond the DeFillipo quote. And there will be more evidence.

2. No school is leaving the Big EAst football conference early if it keeps the Big EAst from meeting the 8 teams together for 2 years test. The damages for killing the Big EAst by breaching that obligation would be far, far in excess of what anyone has to gain by doing so. And I think the chances for an injunction would, actually be very good. The only way teams are leaving early is if the Big East stops playing football altogether, or if the BCS conferences change the BCS rules so the Big East stays an AQ despite the lack of continuity. Maybe that happens, as the SEC, Big XII and ACC would all like this to happen quickly.

The other option is that the Big East is able to add it's new members for next season. If that happens then we are good for the 2013 evaluation. If we are getting $21 million per defector for them to leave early, the conference can certainly expedite it's own expansion.

 

[The Funster]

But there is a huge, huge difference. There is a public statement against interest by an AD saying ESPN acted in a manner that violated its conference with the Big East. Unless you can point me to a comparable fact in the CUSA situation.

ESPN is not initiating suit against the Big East. It would be a lose, lose proposition.

Are you saying that ESPN would not want to iniate a suit because they would not want their internal conversations to become public?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Very surprised the Big 12 stopped at 10. Texas has reasserted control.

Disagree on Notre Dame, but am long past caring what they do.

If the Big East was smart, which it isn't, they would have Boise, SMU and friends form a new conference (NewCo) and begin negotiating TV rights for that league, then have it merge into the Big East at some point in the future. Or, do what you say. Either way, ESPN is not suing after what they pulled. I suspect there is a meaningful component of the Big East that wants to sue ESPN right now but is holding off because they don't want to initiate a lawsuit. ESPN could relieve them of that problem if it was so stupid as to begin a legal action to enforce a contract it has violated itself.

 

[businesslawyer]

Very surprised the Big 12 stopped at 10. Texas has reasserted control.

Disagree on Notre Dame, but am long past caring what they do.

If the Big East was smart, which it isn't, they would have Boise, SMU and friends form a new conference (NewCo) and begin negotiating TV rights for that league, then have it merge into the Big East at some point in the future. Or, do what you say. Either way, ESPN is not suing after what they pulled. I suspect there is a meaningful component of the Big East that wants to sue ESPN right now but is holding off because they don't want to initiate a lawsuit. ESPN could relieve them of that problem if it was so stupid as to begin a legal action to enforce a contract it has violated itself.

ESPN is not that stupid.

 

[businesslawyer]

Are you saying that ESPN would not want to iniate a suit because they would not want their internal conversations to become public?

If ESPN sues the Big East for breach, the Big East's defense will be that you breached first by not acting in good faith, and not dealing with us fairly, by assisting other conferences in a decision to carve us up while you were our television partner, and therefore not only do we not owe you damages, you owe us damages. ESPN will defend those claims if they have to, but will not push them forward by starting a litigation.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

Very surprised the Big 12 stopped at 10. Texas has reasserted control.

If the Big East was smart, which it isn't, they would have Boise, SMU and friends form a new conference (NewCo) and begin negotiating TV rights for that league, then have it merge into the Big East at some point in the future.

It would definitely be interesting if they tried to form a new league effective immediately and tried to get the new TV deal effective for next season. I'm concerned what that would mean for the BCS bid attached to the Big East though, but if it could be worked out it would surely be the best possible outcome for the BE. I think we will have a chance at getting the new schools for next year but I'm pretty sure the new deal will have to wait until 2013.

 

[The Funster]

If ESPN sues the Big East for breach, the Big East's defense will be that you breached first by not acting in good faith, and not dealing with us fairly, by assisting other conferences in a decision to carve us up while you were our television partner, and therefore not only do we not owe you damages, you owe us damages. ESPN will defend those claims if they have to, but will not push them forward by starting a litigation.

OK, I get it. It would be risk/reward assessment on ESPN's part and they'd be like, "Uh, yeah, we'll pass".

 

[huskyrob1]

Boise St would be crazy to not join this conference for football. Basically, the new BE will take the remaining BE schools plus the best of CUSA and the MWC and forming a conference with an automatic BCS bid and a championship game. The MWC/CUSA merger is better than this?

The only way they would join is if Marinara waves the exit fee, which of course would not happen. Also they'd be smart to ask the question why Marinatto isn't inviting schools in all sports to replace the all sports schools lost? Why just football? Threr are some obvious answers to that question, but underneath those obvious answers are a can of worms for Boise, Air Force, or any others Marinade is begging. I'd be shocked if they join.

 

[HuskyHawk]

It would definitely be interesting if they tried to form a new league effective immediately and tried to get the new TV deal effective for next season. I'm concerned what that would mean for the BCS bid attached to the Big East though, but if it could be worked out it would surely be the best possible outcome for the BE. I think we will have a chance at getting the new schools for next year but I'm pretty sure the new deal will have to wait until 2013.

It's not clear how that would work. If the BE is smart, the new FB conference won't even take the BE name. It's somewhat tarnished for football anyway, and the BCS bid isn't linked to the name.

 

[Hoophound]

I think Biz nailed it. ND will stick around until the ACC caves on some of their demands. Also, while I may have been wrong in my prediction that UConn is in the ACC by June and possibly even by Christmas, I still think we might be. The ACC is vulnerable to a raid and they need to expand to 16. That conference just isn't strong enough as it is. They may still push the Irish by going to 15 with UConn and threatening ND with Rutgers. The ACC is the only conference that needs to get to 16 to ensure survival. This new Big East will be better than the ACC in football. The ACC needs to kill the Big East or they assume too much risk.

If I am wrong, I can live with the new BE. I actually think it will be very good and the BE will once again rise from the dead. If we go on with this current plan, I think we will all be laughing about our panic in a couple years. Houston, SMU and UCF are going to explode in the BE. My biggest fear is that we don't rise to the occasion. PP better recruit his ass off because I think these southern schoools are about to make a splash that most people just don't seem to fathom.

 

[gars44]

But there is a huge, huge difference. There is a public statement against interest by an AD saying ESPN acted in a manner that violated its conference with the Big East. Unless you can point me to a comparable fact in the CUSA situation.

ESPN is not initiating suit against the Big East. It would be a lose, lose proposition.

Why do this publicly? Old saying: When you see trouble walking down the street, don't go out to meet it. Boise State, Houston, virtually anyone not now in the Big East can float proposals with anyone they want without coming close to violating any contracts. In our position, why burn bridges with anyone?