A Closer examination of the Undefeated teams | The Boneyard
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A Closer examination of the Undefeated teams

DefenseBB

DefenseBB

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Happy Holidays everyone!

Being home with not much to watch or do, I started looking at the team offensive stats of the AP top 25 teams that morphed into 39 as I have an affinity for some members whose teams are on the outside of the Top 25. As my offensive analysis included the OOC rating, I then looked at the 12 undefeated teams to see if I could glean anything. Basically, the bulk of the undefeated teams are a direct result of their soft non-conference schedule. Some of these teams have dreadful Efficiency stats.
As a reminder, the efficiency score takes all the positives teams do-points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks then subtracts the negatives (missed shots, turnovers, missed free throws and then divide by the games played. The player version is basically one fifth of this team score (5 players on a court).

By AP Voting
  • #1 UConn Efficiency Team rating 123.6 OOC #2 Comment: Legitimate team worthy
  • #2 Texas Team rating 120.3 OOC #6 Comment: Legitimate team worthy
  • #5 LSU Tm 144.5 OOC #66 Comment: Very Good offensive team with an uncanny high efficiency built upon a poor OOC. Of concern to Tiger fans is the rather high 14.5 Turnovers per game against poor competition. Plausible worthy but need to see them against better competition.
  • #6 Maryland Tm 113.8 OOC #67 Comment: Good team but this is a below elite offensive team having more Turnovers than Steals. Will lose eventually at UCLA on 1/18 or sooner like Illinois.
  • #7 TCU Tm 119.6 OOC #88 Comment: Good but if you thought Kim played a pathetic non-conference schedule, Mark Campbell's is worse. At least Kim can say her conference is very hard....Massey has them with 2 losses but given the dearth of good teams in the Big 12, I am not so sure
  • #10 Iowa State Tm 120.1 OOC #49 Comment: Good team built entirely upon Crooks ability to dominate the paint. What happens in Big 12 play with coaches who learn to front her? Massey has them with 2 losses as well, also on 1/18 while at West Virginia.
  • #11 Vanderbilt tm 112.1 OOC #86 Comment: Good team but Shea needs to up her OOC as this is pathetic. On the plus side, she does have one of only 7 Top 25 teams with a positive Steal minus Turnovers stat (UConn, Texas, LSU, ND, tOSU and Mich State). They play LSU on 1/4.
  • #23 Texas Tech Tm 94.1 OOC #64 Comment: Smoke and mirrors. This is a poor offensive team built upon a poor non-conference schedule. Just when you thought Marlene Stallings had left TT, her ghost of scheduling appeared like Marley...They are projected to lose at West Virginia on 1/7
  • #24 Nebraska Tm 115.3 OOC #84 Comment: Even with the poor non-conference schedule, I was surprised how good this team is offensively. There are only 18 teams greater than 100 score and only 10 greater than Nebraska's 115. I will keep an eye on this team and not be so harsh. While Massey has them losing at home vs. SoCal on 12/29, I don't think so but AT IOWA on 1/1?
  • #25 Alabama Tm 95.0 OOC #154 Comment: Kristy has taken steroids to Mulkey's soft OOC effort. Pause for a second, there are 363 D1 teams and Curry has as average of #154. Mind boggling. Add in her poor offensive rating, propensity for turnovers 14.8 per game and only 8.4 steals and this is completely SMOKE and MIRRORS-shame on the voters! Rude awakening coming on 1/1 AT South Carolina...
  • NR Arizona State Tm 84.1 OOC #98 Comment: Molly Miller has done a great job rebuilding this mess in year 1....but this is a bad offensive team built entirely against poor competition. I am rooting for as this undefeated record is still impressive in year 1. Next up are at UTAH and at BYU, both projected losses by Massey. I think Molly beats UTAH but loses to BYU.
  • NR Georgia Tm 98.0 OOC #165 Comment: One way to save your job is to play the WORST schedule of the 37 teams I track. She plays at Ole Miss on 1/1, then at home vs. LSU on 1/8.
Over the next week, we should see Alabama, Georgia lose and then the next week see Nebraska, Arizona State, Vandy and Maryland take a tumble.

Of these 12, I can see 6 making the Sweet 16 and a 7th as a long shot. Despite the great start, I am not sure Georgia or ASU make the NCAAT.
  1. UConn
  2. Texas
  3. LSU
  4. TCU
  5. Maryland
  6. Iowa State
  7. Vanderbilt
 
I'm flying in the Lincoln tomorrow to watch the USC Nebraska game. Love the announcers for the Huskers and they've scored 80 plus points in every game this season. I'm really looking forward to an exciting contest on my day trip to Lincoln.

The Sun Devils do travel to Utah for a game to end the year. I watched closely as Utah edged the kitties down in the dirty t by one point after building a huge lead in the first half. The analysis of the top of this thread is dead right on this is a defensive first second and third team. In the win over Colorado they came out in the first quarter and shot the lights out to score 25 points. They're going to need that kind of offensive performance on the road to be Utah so I have my fingers crossed. If Molly is going to lead them to the dance they're going to need at least two upsets in conference play

Molly Miller has done an amazing job in Tempe. I'm stunned that she was able to shift the culture and recruit in players after the damage done by the fiasco of the previous 3 years. Clearly Miller has a philosophy and approach that works. I have my fingers crossed that the Devils are able to be .500 in conference and if that's the case Miller is hands down coach of the year. Massey has the Devils as underdogs and all but three of their remaining games.

Having seen Texas in person to defeat South Carolina and UCLA I can tell you their defense is off the hook. While injuries have shortened their bench, Booker and Harmon are elite, complete players. Carlton was a revelation to me and Jordan plays with maturity. It's interesting because I'm thinking the NCAA would place Texas in the Fort Worth region. Is there a scenario where the Huskies would play the Longhorns in an elite eight game? If so that would be a shame because these are the two best teams in the country with Dawn Staley's squad a close third. And who knows with her latest addition maybe the French girl pushes them into the national championship game?
 
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visitingcock said:
I. Wish I had your confidence in us. I see us as a probable Elite 8, but lack of depth among our bigs is a glaring limitation
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I’m maybe more confident than you about that final four. Still, losing Watkins and Kitts (and Fagin!) off the front line hurts SC’s chances. And adding Latson to the backcourt doesn’t really move them forward. She just fills the gap left by Tehina and Mil. But even staying even with last season’s team looks like a probable final four to me. They are big enough to challenge the biggest teams. If they fall short, it will be in the backcourt. I’ve said this and been wrong before, but I continue to think that much depends on what Tessa can do. And I continue to expect Maryam and Adhel to underwhelm.
 
azfan said:
I'm flying in the Lincoln tomorrow to watch the USC Nebraska game. Love the announcers for the Huskers and they've scored 80 plus points in every game this season. I'm really looking forward to an exciting contest on my day trip to Lincoln.

The Sun Devils do travel to Utah for a game to end the year. I watched closely as Utah edged the kitties down in the dirty t by one point after building a huge lead in the first half. The analysis of the top of this thread is dead right on this is a defensive first second and third team. In the win over Colorado they came out in the first quarter and shot the lights out to score 25 points. They're going to need that kind of offensive performance on the road to be Utah so I have my fingers crossed. If Molly is going to lead them to the dance they're going to need at least two upsets in conference play

Molly Miller has done an amazing job in Tempe. I'm stunned that she was able to shift the culture and recruit in players after the damage done by the fiasco of the previous 3 years. Clearly Miller has a philosophy and approach that works. I have my fingers crossed that the Devils are able to be .500 in conference and if that's the case Miller is hands down coach of the year. Massey has the Devils as underdogs and all but three of their remaining games.

Having seen Texas in person to defeat South Carolina and UCLA I can tell you their defense is off the hook. While injuries have shortened their bench, Booker and Harmon are elite, complete players. Carlton was a revelation to me and Jordan plays with maturity. It's interesting because I'm thinking the NCAA would place Texas in the Fort Worth region. Is there a scenario where the Huskies would play the Longhorns in an elite eight game? If so that would be a shame because these are the two best teams in the country with Dawn Staley's squad a close third. And who knows with her latest addition maybe the French girl pushes them into the national championship game?
Expand ...
No. That would require them to be the #1 and #8 overall seeds (in either order). Essentially impossible at this point in the season.
 
azfan said:
. . ..

Having seen Texas in person to defeat South Carolina and UCLA I can tell you their defense is off the hook. While injuries have shortened their bench, Booker and Harmon are elite, complete players. Carlton was a revelation to me and Jordan plays with maturity. It's interesting because I'm thinking the NCAA would place Texas in the Fort Worth region. Is there a scenario where the Huskies would play the Longhorns in an elite eight game? If so that would be a shame because these are the two best teams in the country with Dawn Staley's squad a close third. And who knows with her latest addition maybe the French girl pushes them into the national championship game?
Expand ...


I’ve seen a lot of Texas in the past year and was not surprised in any way. Vic has always coached defense VERY well. Carlton didn’t surprise either because I followed her closely during recruitment . And Lee was among the SEC’s better looking freshmen last year. I am not impressed with Cunningham at post and never have been. Though she is their starter she is no match for Okot.

I think we matchup well but depth at post is a concern Okot’s foul trouble cost us in the first matchup this season. I don’t think Tournebize or Dauda) has the physical strength to match up with the Texas bigs as a freshman. TAC is not ready to face a Carleton or any post on Texas team. Hope the 18,000 fams at home can pull us through in Columbia.
 
visitingcock said:
I think we matchup well but depth at post is a concern Okot’s foul trouble cost us in the first matchup this season. I don’t think Tournebize or Dauda) has the physical strength to match up with the Texas bigs as a freshman. TAC is not ready to face a Carleton or any post on Texas team. Hope the 18,000 fams at home can pull us through in Columbia.
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These are good points. But something in me rebels at the thought of Texas sweeping the series with SC.
 
visitingcock said:
I. Wish I had your confidence in us. I see us as a probable Elite 8, but lack of depth among our bigs is a glaring limitation
Expand ...
I'm confident in your team. IMO your team is a beast,. Not as great as your 3 teams prior to last year. But a beast.
 
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While Georgia does have a weaker schedule this year - it's not exactly coach's fault that Florida State and Georgia Tech are far weaker than usual this year. That said, the Kansas win is holding up nicely as a decent win against a fellow bubble team.
 
azfan said:
I'm flying in the Lincoln tomorrow to watch the USC Nebraska game. Love the announcers for the Huskers and they've scored 80 plus points in every game this season. I'm really looking forward to an exciting contest on my day trip to Lincoln.

The Sun Devils do travel to Utah for a game to end the year. I watched closely as Utah edged the kitties down in the dirty t by one point after building a huge lead in the first half. The analysis of the top of this thread is dead right on this is a defensive first second and third team. In the win over Colorado they came out in the first quarter and shot the lights out to score 25 points. They're going to need that kind of offensive performance on the road to be Utah so I have my fingers crossed. If Molly is going to lead them to the dance they're going to need at least two upsets in conference play

Molly Miller has done an amazing job in Tempe. I'm stunned that she was able to shift the culture and recruit in players after the damage done by the fiasco of the previous 3 years. Clearly Miller has a philosophy and approach that works. I have my fingers crossed that the Devils are able to be .500 in conference and if that's the case Miller is hands down coach of the year. Massey has the Devils as underdogs and all but three of their remaining games.

Having seen Texas in person to defeat South Carolina and UCLA I can tell you their defense is off the hook. While injuries have shortened their bench, Booker and Harmon are elite, complete players. Carlton was a revelation to me and Jordan plays with maturity. It's interesting because I'm thinking the NCAA would place Texas in the Fort Worth region. Is there a scenario where the Huskies would play the Longhorns in an elite eight game? If so that would be a shame because these are the two best teams in the country with Dawn Staley's squad a close third. And who knows with her latest addition maybe the French girl pushes them into the national championship game?
Expand ...
You might be able to beat Utah. They played fairly well in the 2nd quarter, and Arizona stunk out the gym, and were outscored 20 - 4. Arizona beat them in every other quarter, but only came within one point, as you note. Minus the 2nd quarter, I didn't think they looked all that impressive. While I don't root "for" ASU, I won't be rooting against you, either. Will stay neutral in that one.
 
Ok, so the "blood bath" of New Year's day is over and now there are 7 left
  1. ASU 15-0 who play BYU on 1/3, UCF on 1/7 and then TCU on 1/11
  2. Texas Tech 15-0 and play Az 1/3 then WVU on 1/7 and a few easy games until BYU 1/21
  3. ISU is 14-0 and plays Baylor on 1/4, WVU on 1/11 and Ok State on 1/18 as the potential tough games. Texas Tech is 1/28 and TCU is 2/22
  4. TCU is 14-0 and has Utah 1/3, Ok State 1/7, ASU 1/11 and WVU 1/14
  5. Texas is 16-0 and has Ole Miss 1/4, LSU on 1/11 and at SC on 1/15
  6. Vanderbilt 14-0 has LSU at home on 1/4 and at SC on 1/25
  7. UConn is 14-0 and despite KK Arnold's absence, will not be tested until 1/19 vs ND and 2/1 vs. Tennessee.
 
GoChips20 said:
No. That would require them to be the #1 and #8 overall seeds (in either order). Essentially impossible at this point in the season.
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Would it be possible at the end of the season?
 
azfan said:
Would it be possible at the end of the season?
Expand ...
Either UConn or Texas falling to the #8 overall would be one of the most shocking slides we’ve seen in a long time. There seems to be a clear-cut top 4 and UConn/Texas are 1-2 on that list. Maybe LSU or TCU can sneak in there, but still, that’s 5/6 at worst and even that seems highly unlikely.

Don’t get me wrong, UConn is a better team than South Carolina right now, but not having the SC game this year really clears the path for UConn to go undefeated up to the tournament.
 
GoChips20 said:
Either UConn or Texas falling to the #8 overall would be one of the most shocking slides we’ve seen in a long time. There seems to be a clear-cut top 4 and UConn/Texas are 1-2 on that list. Maybe LSU or TCU can sneak in there, but still, that’s 5/6 at worst and even that seems highly unlikely.
Expand ...

You may be thinking of a 2nd round (round of 32) game, which is where 1 seeds can play 8 seeds. An elite eight game, which is the regional championship, can involve 1 seed vs. 2 seed games.

So I suppose it's theoretically possible that one of those two teams could stay a 1 seed and the other could lose some games where they were favored to drop to a 2. UConn's margin is thinner than Texas's here; if they lose 2 games before the tournament they will probably drop, and maybe also with 1 loss, depending on how. Texas could drop if it has multiple bad losses, or too many good losses (4? 5?) in conference play.

In either of those scenarios, I would hope that the selection committee would have enough wisdom to keep them separate, though. Unless our losses are based on a very depleted roster (injuries), we would be a strong 2 seed.
 
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iri10 said:
You may be thinking of a 2nd round (round of 32) game, which is where 1 seeds can play 8 seeds. An elite eight game, which is the regional championship, can involve 1 seed vs. 2 seed games.

So I suppose it's theoretically possible that one of those two teams could stay a 1 seed and the other could lose some games where they were favored to drop to a 2. UConn's margin is thinner than Texas's here; if they lose 2 games before the tournament they will probably drop, and maybe also with 1 loss, depending on how. Texas could drop if it has multiple bad losses, or too many good losses (4? 5?) in conference play.

In either of those scenarios, I would hope that the selection committee would have enough wisdom to keep them separate, though. Unless our losses are based on a very depleted roster (injuries), we would be a strong 2 seed.
Expand ...
By #8 overall seed, I was referring to the weakest 2-seed that, using the committee’s S-curve, will be paired with the overall #1 seed in the same Elite Eight region. To answer OP’s question, UConn or Texas would need to be in the same region to meet before the Final Four and that’s highly unlikely
 
GoChips20 said:
By #8 overall seed, I was referring to the weakest 2-seed that, using the committee’s S-curve, will be paired with the overall #1 seed in the same Elite Eight region. To answer OP’s question, UConn or Texas would need to be in the same region to meet before the Final Four and that’s highly unlikely
Expand ...

Ah, you're right, I misread that part of your original post. I do agree that it's not hugely likely. It can maybe happen if something serious goes wrong with one of the teams, but as they're currently constituted, it would be unusual.
 
DefenseBB said:
NR Arizona State Tm 84.1 OOC #98 Comment: Molly Miller has done a great job rebuilding this mess in year 1....but this is a bad offensive team built entirely against poor competition. I am rooting for as this undefeated record is still impressive in year 1. Next up are at UTAH and at BYU, both projected losses by Massey. I think Molly beats UTAH but loses to BYU.
  • NR Georgia Tm 98.0 OOC #165 Comment: One way to save your job is to play the WORST schedule of the 37 teams I track. She plays at Ole Miss on 1/1, then at home vs. LSU on 1/8.
Over the next week, we should see Alabama, Georgia lose and then the next week see Nebraska, Arizona State, Vandy and Maryland take a tumble.

Of these 12, I can see 6 making the Sweet 16 and a 7th as a long shot. Despite the great start, I am not sure Georgia or ASU make the NCAAT.
  1. UConn
  2. Texas
  3. LSU
  4. TCU
  5. Maryland
  6. Iowa State
  7. Vanderbilt
Expand ...
You were on point with the 1 point win at Utah. I also fear you will be correct about today's game at Provo

Defense travels, but Gibb may well be the difference. Benally has been amazing, playing with maturity for a frosh. For the Devils to win Gabby Elliot will need a super game and we will need some production from the bench..... Deb Davenport I'm looking at you.
 
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Two up and two down yesterday. Three more games today -

1767528937923.jpeg
 
I don’t know anything about Texas Tech. They weren’t on my pre-season Big 12 watchlist. Are they a threat to challenge for the conference lead? Any All Conference candidates ?

I expect LSU to bounce back today even though Vandy has some good players and excellent chemistry. Ole Miss may be scrappy and keep it tight against Texas but the Horns are tough on their home court and Vic knows how to coach in games like this.

It’s a good day for wbb on TV
 
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visitingcock said:
I don’t know anything about Texas Tech. They weren’t on my pre-season Big 12 watchlist. Are they a threat to challenge for the conference lead? Any All Conference candidates ?

I expect LSU to bounce back today even though Vandy has some good players and excellent chemistry. Ole Miss may be scrappy and keep it tight against Texas but the Horns are tough on their home court and Vic knows how to coach in games like this.

It’s a good day for wbb on TV
Expand ...
Well a few things-they played a truly awful OOC to pad their record, they did get significant NIL money, they did have a big win AT Baylor (who I still think is overrated), they play in a fairly soft conference so they can get on a pretty good run of wins. TCU is not as strong as everyone thought so yes, Tech could actually look good in the polls for a while.
 
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