Well, you have no insight on this particular family, nor the Texas coaching staff; that part is obvious. You can be as pessimistic as you want, but your pessimism is based on factors or other situations that have nothing to do with Texas.
There is no precedent of this coaching staff pulling scholarships (that we know of). We have verbal commitments from two 2017 players, one of who is a former Lady Longhorn hoopster's daughter, and a 2018 player. Time will tell if those players end up signing their LOIs when the time comes. If they do, it will validate that it wasn't "too early" for them to have made their verbal commitments 3-4 years in advance of NSD.
In November, we will have two 2015 recruits who will sign their LOIs after having been committed to Texas for over 2 years. So, that is a pretty long time, IMO, and it appears everything will work out for said recruits and the coaching staff that recruited them.