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Message: [QUOTE="Jimbo, post: 2105426, member: 6751"] Oh sure, I understand that the percentages will continue to change. As it happens, UConn is now down to 48%, probably because Maryland just won, but I can't quibble with that. I just have a very hard time believing that Baylor crushing Texas Southern, even by 89 points, should move the needle as much as it did. Baylor's chances of winning the tournament increased from 23% to 32%, which is a pretty huge jump. I can understand seeing that kind of shift if one of the other top contenders gets knocked off, but I don't get it here. And if it's because the model was wowed by the absurd margin of victory, then maybe they should consider some kind of MOV cap. When an opponent is that badly outmatched, it shouldn't matter whether Baylor won by 69 or 79 or 89. At least, I don't think it has any real predictive meaning as far as the probability of Baylor winning this tournament, which is the model's purpose. [/QUOTE]