40% of the way through the season...

[tzznandrew]

I first posted these stats back in November, after 6 games, and now that we're through 12 it seems like a great time to look and see what/if anything has changed. Since that, though, the NET has come out, so I'm adding this to the list.

NET

9. Houston
33. Cincy
----
56. UCF
77. Temple
83. UConn
----
101. Tulsa
103. USF
109. Memphis
133. Wichita
150. SMU
----
240. Tulane
258. ECU

Sagarin

14. Cincy
33. Houston
34. UCF
----
74. UConn
84. Temple
----
98. Memphis
110. Wichita
116. SMU
118. Tulsa
----
177. USF
209. Tulane
244. ECU

KenPom

23. Cincy
36. Houston
44. UCF
----
78. UConn
82. Temple
94. SMU
----
111. Wichita
120. Memphis
122. Tulsa
----
191. USF
215. Tulane
261. ECU

BPI

21. Cincy
30. Houston
37. UCF
55. Temple
----
76. UConn
85. SMU
----
129. Tulsa
130. Wichita
143. Memphis
----
191. USF
226. Tulane
282. ECU

Massey

17. Houston
21. Cincy
----
52. UCF
55. Temple
----
89. Wichita
92. UConn
93. Tulsa
----
117. Memphis
135. USF
137. SMU
----
203 Tulane
259. ECU

So, Cincy has been a big riser pretty much across the board. They all tell the same story, though: Cincy and Houston are pretty much tournament locks provided they don't collapse or have major injuries. Each also has a good shot at a 4 or 5 seed, or maybe a little better.

UCF is a bubble team, but right now, by the metrics alone would probably be a 50-50 team. Temple and UConn are both on the outside looking in, probably NIT teams. Tulsa has put itself in the conversation of the NIT.

The conference looks balanced, with Cincy and Houston being chances for Q1 wins even at home. Temple and UCF may also be Q1 wins on the road, if you can get them. UConn is close to that line as well, in the NET.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Looks about right. We have 1 quality win that isn't looking so quality anymore. That's not going to get it done on Selection Sunday.

Probably need 15 conference wins (regular season + AACT) to have a shot at an at-large bid, though beating Nova could alleviate that slightly.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Looks about right. We have 1 quality win that isn't looking so quality anymore. That's not going to get it done on Selection Sunday.

Probably need 15 conference wins (regular season + AACT) to have a shot at an at-large bid, though beating Nova could alleviate that slightly.

I think this number is pretty accurate. It may be 13-14 depending on how the bubble looks, but this is def the range.

In looking at our games in conference, UConn has to avoid the bad loss. They need to sweep USF, East Carolina and Tulane. There is 5 wins right there.

The next group is the middle group of the conference. We have H/H with SMU and Witchia State, with road games at Tulsa and at Memphis. Ideally you split on the road, and pick up 2 home wins here. That give you 4 wins out of this group, and 9 conference wins.

Then then top tier teams @tzznandrew was talking about. Houston, Cincinnati, UCF and Temple. H/H with everyone except Houston, who play at home. We have 7 games here. Even if you just win your home games, thats 4 wins and 13 conference wins.

This would put us firmly on the bubble with 22-23 wins depending on what happens Saturday. Win a game or two in the American and we should be in.

Beating Villanova Saturday would give us a little wiggle room here.

 

[tzznandrew]

They really need to perform decently on the road, since they had no true road games in OOC. They probably gotta get one of Cincy/UCF/Temple on the road.

This is a year where our OOC schedule is really going to kill us if we just tread water and win only the games we're supposed to win.

 

[Storrs South]

From Haslametrics who has UConn at 55 :Haslametrics: A unique approach to college basketball analysis

 

[UofCT]

Would an American regular season championship put us in regardless of AAC Tournament results?

 

[UConnStats]

Would an American regular season championship put us in regardless of AAC Tournament results?

As long as the other teams don't beat up on Houston and Cincy then it's possible.

 

[the Q]

From Haslametrics who has UConn at 55 :Haslametrics: A unique approach to college basketball analysis

Just based on how it graded the same it passes the smell test, at about 83%. Which is good enough for fancy number crunching like this