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3rd in Rpi

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UChusky916

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All this does is prove that RPI is not a reliable system, especially this early on.
 

BUHusky

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I agree, RPI this early in the season is worthless.

Also, if you want a better rating system go to kenpom.com. UConn is currently ranked 28th using his analysis.
 
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It not that early on.

We have played 13 games and have 18 to go. We are 3 games from being past halfway.
 
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I don't trust a system that rates our RPI that highly; we really haven't played anyone that good.

I believe KenPom's. Of course, that #28 will go up in February as we play the tough BE teams.
 
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He also has Wisconsin as his number 1 team in the country. And he is a meteorologist. He had some good stats before the paywalls went up but I think his ranking system is a joke.
 
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How in God's name does Duke rank so high with its pre-conference sked??? These numbers just don't look very realistic to me.
They played OSU, Kansas and Michigan State. Who have we played?
 
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Michigan as well, with the slate we've played UConn fans can take this year off griping about other teams' schedules.
 
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To give you an idea of how meaningless the RPI is at this time IU beat the UK (9 RPI) and OSU (12 RPI). Their only loss was to #5 RPI MSU but their RPI is only 17. Why? Even though they have 3 games against top RPI ranked teams going 2-1, their SOS is horrible (97 overall but 214 OOC) knocking their overall RPI down.

In other words it is still far too early for the RPI to make much sense. Conference play has just begun and expect the RPIs for the major conf teams to improve and the ones for the mid to low majors to digress. With that said, for UConn to have an RPI where it is now considering what the OOC sched looked like before the season began is a good thing. Our BE schedule should have enough RPI-SOS punch to keep UConn high as long as they and the top of the BE (SU, UL, GU, SH, etc.) keep on winning. I don't see any of the other conferences having that much of a leg up on the Big East for many of their top teams to leap over our top conference teams. But since the BE hasn't dominated the OOC slate as they did last season, which helped many of our teams to maintain high RPIs, my guess would be that if the BE teams beats up on each other the RPIs might suffer a tad.
 
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The reason our RPI is so high is because we haven't really played any terrible teams. Although UConn hasn't played any great teams yet, most of the so called cupcakes they've played haven't really been awful teams. Teams like Wagner, Fairfield, and Columbia are decent teams. The only below .500 teams UConn has played are Coppin State and Holy Cross.
 
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The reason our RPI is so high is because we haven't really played any terrible teams. Although UConn hasn't played any great teams yet, most of the so called cupcakes they've played haven't really been awful teams. Teams like Wagner, Fairfield, and Columbia are decent teams. The only below .500 teams UConn has played are Coppin State and Holy Cross.

Good point. Usually our non conference schedule is a mix of a couple really good teams and a couple atrocious teams. This year we kind of ended up in between. We didn't have any super good teams on the pre conference slate, but also some of the usual cupcakes have turned out to be pretty competitive, as you stated above.

This year reminds me more of the usual Duke OOC schedule. Schedule a few good, not great teams, and play "bad teams" ranked in the top 150 RPI rather than RPI's in the 250's & 300's.
 

Fishy

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I feel that this board should involve crayons sometimes.

As Palantine said, we're 13 games in now...the RPI is not meaningless. What it means is that nearly halfway through the season, and effectively through the the out-of-conference portion of the year, UConn is where they need to be to secure a one or two seed.

Despite the best efforts of some peeps in the thread, unfortunately, we're going to have to live with this piece of good news. My condolences to all affected.

There's probably not even enough time to petition the selection committee to use the obviously more accurate and imminently more damning Ken Pom ratings.

I shall gnash my teeth and wail appropriately.
 

BUHusky

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As Palantine said, we're 13 games in now...the RPI is not meaningless. What it means is that nearly halfway through the season, and effectively through the the out-of-conference portion of the year, UConn is where they need to be to secure a one or two seed.

So using your logic, Seton Hall is also where they need to be to secure a one or two seed. Riiiiiiiiight. The RPI is absolutely meaningless prior to the start conference play because even though UConn has played almost half their schedule (i.e. 13 games) you can't compare the teams they've already played to the Big East teams they have yet to play. Again, if you are arguing that the RPI is meaningful at this current point in time, then you are also arguing that Seton Hall is one of the best teams in the country at this current point in time. Sorry to break it to you guys, but Seton Hall is probably not going to make the NCAA tournament.

I would love to see what the 2006-2007 team's RPI was at this same point. I do remember that team cruised through a sub-par early season schedule thereby earning themselves a top 10 ranking in the polls. I'm sure their RPI prior to Big East play was freaking outstanding. But then Big East play started, they started playing actual NCAA tournament level opponents, and we all know how that season ended. Same story with the 2009-2010 team.

Now I'm not saying something like that will happen to the this year's team. In fact, I'm pretty confident that this year's team is pretty damn good, is only going to get better as the season progresses, and will end up doing very well for themselves when all is said and done. So please don't try to include me in the group of doom and gloom posters on this board who think that everything about this team sucks.

My point is simply that it's a complete joke to take any stock in RPI numbers at this point in the season, especially before the team has been tested by the minefield known as the Big East conference. Perhaps we can all revisit UConn's RPI at a time when it actually means something, like in mid-February.
 

Fishy

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The first straw man merit badge of 2012 is heading to BU. Please...take a moment to tell me exactly where the weakness is in UConn's resume. If I'm wrong and UConn is not where they should be to gain a top seed, please, show me the light. We're in the here and now, so don't tell me about February.

Because I see 12-1, ranked in the top ten, RPI is in the top 5...I must be missing something. And stating that UConn could fall from their current position if they lose is not an argument - it's merely repackaging the obvious as insight. They are where they have to be on January 2nd.

The out of conference season is over. UConn is in the top 5 of the RPI, a metric used to seed the NCAA tournament. Thirteen of the 33 to 35 games that UConn and Seton Hall and Syracuse and everyone else will be measured on are in the books. If anyone thinks that is meaningless and being third or thirtieth or fiftieth or 200th right now is of equal value, forget basketball, I recommend remedial math.
 

RS9999X

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I feel that this board should involve crayons sometimes.

As Palantine said, we're 13 games in now...the RPI is not meaningless. What it means is that nearly halfway through the season, and effectively through the the out-of-conference portion of the year, UConn is where they need to be to secure a one or two seed.

Despite the best efforts of some peeps in the thread, unfortunately, we're going to have to live with this piece of good news. My condolences to all affected.

There's probably not even enough time to petition the selection committee to use the obviously more accurate and imminently more damning Ken Pom ratings.

I shall gnash my teeth and wail appropriately.

If KenPom's rankings were gospel than teams would schedule to accomodate Pomeroy's ratings as they do the RPI now.

There are other considerations with ratings like Pomeroy: Better rankings for single game betting and single game matchups aren't necessarily better for evaluating best seasonal performance or Nitty Gritty sheets that emulate the NCAA sheets for selection and seeding. Pomeroy includes stuff like margin of victory weighted towards high margin victories over higher ranked teams

Jan1 is about the best time of year for getting OOC RPI. Ranked 2nd as a conference means the BE will get the benefit of a doubt come last 4 in. Cincinatti is in trouble with a 119 RPI and 11-3. That's like the old Syracuse model where they'd bring 20 wins to the table with an RPI of 65.
 

BUHusky

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O Fishy, my Fishy, it would be really swell if you actually read what I (or anyone else) actually wrote before blasting off on a tangent. Contrary to your allegation, I never said UConn did not deserve the #3 spot in the RPI. Sure, in my first post I did point out that Ken Pom has them ranked 28th using his analysis, but that has nothing to do with the merits of their #3 spot in RPI. The RPI has it's formula and using the current data set, the formula says UConn is #3. That is fine and there is no one arguing that. Even going the non-statistical route (i.e. going the eye test route) UConn has beaten solid competition and at times looked pretty impressive doing it.

Rather, I've been arguing that it's completely worthless to take any stock in the RPI on January freaking 2nd. It's too damn early. It doesn't matter what type of ranking/rating is being used (e.g. RPI, Ken Pomeroy, Lunardi, etc.), it's still way too early to derive any useful long term projections from from the current data set. And since you brought up equal value, I'm not sure how you can look at Seton Hall and Indiana's current positions in the RPI and then go on to argue that the current RPI is not completely meaningless.

Sure, UConn has played 13 games so far and all 13 of those games will be looked over by the selection committee. But the importance of those 13 games is completely dwarfed by the importance of the remaining games on their schedule. If you or anyone else thinks that those early out-of-conference games are equally as important as most of the upcoming Big East games when the selection committee studies UConn's resume on selection Sunday, then you are beyond help and probably love the BCS.

Attacking the the usefulness of RPI in early January (which is what I've been doing) is very different from attacking UConn's current resume for a top seed (which is what you are accusing me of doing). If anything, based on your foregoing posts, you are the #1 man of straw in this thread.

Alas Fishy, I joyfully wait your next snark-laden pontification in which you inevitably call me an idiot and reference my need for crayons, abacuses, diapers, and a haircut.
 
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If you look at the current RPI, it looks like a good indicator. SHU is no doubt high, but hey have played very well in the early part for the schedule.

My guess is that at the end of the season it looks very similar to today, The majority if not 80-90% of the top ten will be intact and the same with the top twenty.
 

Fishy

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O Fishy, my Fishy, it would be really swell if you actually read what I (or anyone else) actually wrote before blasting off on a tangent. Contrary to your allegation, I never said UConn did not deserve the #3 spot in the RPI. (Blah, blah)
Alas Fishy, I joyfully wait your next snark-laden pontification in which you inevitably call me an idiot and reference my need for crayons, abacuses, diapers, and a haircut.

You said it was meaningless. I said you were wrong.

You are.

The rest is noise.
 
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I think that the RPI is the only rating system that matters. I followed KenPom for years, and apart from his breakdown of teams in four factors, the overall "rating' seems to make no sense to me. How can we end up #10 in his rating last year having won the national championship? Even last week, UConn beats St Johns, covers the spread, and drops 4 spots in his system. To me, that makes no sense. Where is the "reward" factor? And he wants us to pay for such wise analysis!
His system says nothing about tournament seeding, and in the end RPI says everything.
 

BUHusky

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You said it was meaningless. I said you were wrong.

You are.

The rest is noise.

Your reasoning and argumentation skills are unmatched! I'm sure you've won many arguments over the years using inductive reasoning and various other logical fallacies. You sir, are champion of the internets.
 
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