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Message: [QUOTE="auror, post: 4570519, member: 1329"] Final update. We lost Nova from Q1 overnight (finished #76). Bolded if top 3 in a category, red if last. [TABLE] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD]UConn[/TD] [TD]Xavier[/TD] [TD]Indiana[/TD] [TD]Virginia[/TD] [TD]Duke[/TD] [TD]Tennessee[/TD] [TD]Kansas St[/TD] [TD]Baylor[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Record[/TD] [TD][B]25-8[/B][/TD] [TD]25-9[/TD] [TD][COLOR=rgb(209, 72, 65)]22-11[/COLOR][/TD] [TD][B]25-7[/B][/TD] [TD][B]26-8[/B][/TD] [TD]23-10[/TD] [TD]23-9[/TD] [TD]22-10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NET[/TD] [TD][B]8[/B][/TD] [TD]22[/TD] [TD][COLOR=rgb(209, 72, 65)]30[/COLOR][/TD] [TD]26[/TD] [TD]16[/TD] [TD][B]4[/B][/TD] [TD]23[/TD] [TD][B]15[/B][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Predict Ave[/TD] [TD][B]5[/B][/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]22[/TD] [TD][COLOR=rgb(209, 72, 65)]28[/COLOR][/TD] [TD]17[/TD] [TD][B]6[/B][/TD] [TD]26[/TD] [TD][B]13[/B][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Resume Ave[/TD] [TD]16[/TD] [TD]17[/TD] [TD][COLOR=rgb(209, 72, 65)]19.5[/COLOR][/TD] [TD]17.5[/TD] [TD][B]13.5[/B][/TD] [TD]19[/TD] [TD][B]14.5[/B][/TD] [TD][B]10[/B][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]SoS (non-conf)[/TD] [TD]42 (92)[/TD] [TD]30 (50)[/TD] [TD][B]12 (104)[/B][/TD] [TD]71 (39)[/TD] [TD]57 (70)[/TD] [TD]32 (46)[/TD] [TD][B]16 (310)[/B][/TD] [TD][B]2 (42)[/B][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Q1 (Q1A)[/TD] [TD]6-6 (3-4)[/TD] [TD][B]8-6 (4-5)[/B][/TD] [TD][COLOR=rgb(209, 72, 65)]6-8 (4-6)[/COLOR][/TD] [TD]5-5 (1-3)[/TD] [TD]5-6 (1-4)[/TD] [TD]7-7 (3-4)[/TD] [TD][B]9-8 (4-5)[/B][/TD] [TD][B]11-10 (6-6)[/B][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Q2[/TD] [TD][B]6-1[/B][/TD] [TD][B]5-1[/B][/TD] [TD]6-2[/TD] [TD][B]5-1[/B][/TD] [TD]7-2[/TD] [TD][COLOR=rgb(209, 72, 65)]3-3[/COLOR][/TD] [TD]4-1[/TD] [TD][B]4-0[/B][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Q1+2[/TD] [TD][B]12-7[/B][/TD] [TD][B]13-7[/B][/TD] [TD]12-10[/TD] [TD][B]10-6[/B][/TD] [TD]12-8[/TD] [TD][COLOR=rgb(209, 72, 65)]10-10[/COLOR][/TD] [TD]13-9[/TD] [TD]15-10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bad Losses[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD][COLOR=rgb(209, 72, 65)]2[/COLOR][/TD] [TD][B]0[/B][/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD][B]0[/B][/TD] [TD][B]0[/B][/TD] [TD][B]0[/B][/TD] [TD][B]0[/B][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Away/Neutral[/TD] [TD][B]10-6[/B][/TD] [TD][B]10-6[/B][/TD] [TD][COLOR=rgb(209, 72, 65)]7-9[/COLOR][/TD] [TD][B]10-6[/B][/TD] [TD]10-8[/TD] [TD]9-8[/TD] [TD]7-8[/TD] [TD]8-7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Net Bolds/Reds[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]-3[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] So based on my completely arbitrary seat of the paints bolds/reds model, Baylor is clearly ahead. Followed by UConn, and then Kansas St. This lines up exactly with Bracket Matrix (although they have KSt ahead of UConn). UConn resume is overall solid and strong on predictive, Q2 and away from home. Baylor has strong everything. Indiana doesn't belong in this grouping. Duke's metrics are better than I thought when I looked recently, and overall they don't have a lot of holes. If they had done better in Q1, they might have had a chance for a 3, but I don't see the committee giving a team with a losing Q1 record a 3-seed. It's between them and Xavier for the top 4 I think, unless the committee favors predictive metrics in which case Tennessee is in the mix. But the bracket reveal makes me think not so much. But I am still a bit worried the committee may just swap us for those head to head reasons. Hopefully there is enough resume distance that the committee doesn't look at us and Xavier and say: 1) Xavier swept them, 2) Xavier had better conference record, 3) Xavier made it farther in conference tournament. Right now it's their 2 bad losses (and how they affected their metrics) that are keeping them out of the 3 seed mix. [/QUOTE]

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