#25 Oklahoma State at West Virginia

[Plebe]

Don't let the #25 designation fool you: Oklahoma State, after a disastrous loss to Kansas earlier in the week, is fighting for its life on the bubble at this point.

Both teams have sagging RPIs (in the mid-60s) due to weak OOC scheduling, and both need this win in the worst way.

WVU leads 37-32 at halftime but has 4 different players with 2 fouls each. Kristina King picked up her 2nd foul in the middle of 1Q and has not played since. OSU's center Kaylee Jensen also picked up 2 fouls in a span of 14 seconds in mid-2Q.

Live stream:
vs. Oklahoma State

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Tight game. Nice camera work. Thanks WVU 40-37 in 3rd

 

[Plebe]

Oklahoma State has outscored WVU 17-6 in the first 6 minutes of 3Q, taking a 6-point lead and forcing Mike Carey to call a timeout to stop the bleeding.

Loryn Goodwin had a slow start, with only 3 points in 1Q, but now has 16 points plus 4 steals.

 

[bballnut90]

Don't let the #25 designation fool you: Oklahoma State, after a disastrous loss to Kansas earlier in the week, is fighting for its life on the bubble at this point.

Both teams have sagging RPIs (in the mid-60s) due to weak OOC scheduling, and both need this win in the worst way.

WVU leads 37-32 at halftime but has 4 different players with 2 fouls each. Kristina King picked up her 2nd foul in the middle of 1Q and has not played since. OSU's center Kaylee Jensen also picked up 2 fouls in a span of 14 seconds in mid-2Q.

Live stream:
vs. Oklahoma State

OK State had a pretty respectable OOC schedule, playing UCLA, Tennessee, and Mississippi State. Unfortunately for them, they have some pretty bad losses (Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State) in going 1-6 against Baylor, Texas and the 3 teams mentioned. They need to close out today's game and beat TCU to be safe IMO.

West Virginia is pretty bad though. They're down 8 today and have a game against Baylor to finish the year. They'll likely finish 8-10 in conference and have just 1 win against an NCAA tournament team (beating A&M early in the year). I don't think they should get in with that resume.

 

[Plebe]

OK State had a pretty respectable OOC schedule, playing UCLA, Tennessee, and Mississippi State. Unfortunately for them, they have some pretty bad losses (Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State) in going 1-6 against Baylor, Texas and the 3 teams mentioned. They need to close out today's game and beat TCU to be safe IMO.

West Virginia is pretty bad though. They're down 8 today and have a game against Baylor to finish the year. They'll likely finish 8-10 in conference and have just 1 win against an NCAA tournament team (beating A&M early in the year). I don't think they should get in with that resume.

You mention OSU's three best OOC opponents, but their RPI is being dragged down by:
#305 Incarnate Word
#315 UT Rio Grande Valley
#333 Northwestern State
#295 South Carolina Upstate
#336 UL Monroe

That, combined with the 3 bad losses in conference, has made them vulnerable in the RPI.

I agree with you about West Virginia. Their resume has one highlight, the road win at A&M, but otherwise they just haven't done any damage, and the overtime losses at home to both TCU and Oklahoma really hurt. They haven't had any bad losses (outside the top 100) but just not enough quality wins.

The other team that this is bad news for is Oklahoma, which currently has only one top-50 win (over South Florida) and really needed West Virginia to finish top 50 to give them two more. It's pretty unprecedented for a power 5 team in the top 30 of the RPI to be on the bubble, but that's right where they are.

 

[bballnut90]

You mention OSU's three best OOC opponents, but their RPI is being dragged down by:
#305 Incarnate Word
#315 UT Rio Grande Valley
#333 Northwestern State
#295 South Carolina Upstate
#336 UL Monroe

That, combined with the 3 bad losses in conference, has made them vulnerable in the RPI.

I agree with you about West Virginia. Their resume has one highlight, the road win at A&M, but otherwise they just haven't done any damage, and the overtime losses at home to both TCU and Oklahoma really hurt. They haven't had any bad losses (outside the top 100) but just not enough quality wins.

The other team that this is bad news for is Oklahoma, which currently has only one top-50 win (over South Florida) and really needed West Virginia to finish top 50 to give them two more. It's pretty unprecedented for a power 5 team in the top 30 of the RPI to be on the bubble, but that's right where they are.

Kind of crazy that those 5 OOC opponents could end up being very costly for Ok State. Don’t coaches realize that those games will hurt them in the long run? Why not schedule teams ranked in the 100-200 range that they should still beat easily but won’t ruin their RPI? I don’t get it.

Oklahoma has faced a tough schedule but is barely over .500. They are capable of being a good team, but I don’t think they’ve earned a tournament bid this year with their body of work. 1 top 50 wins and a slew of losses doesn’t equal a tournament appearance to me. I’d rather see an up and coming team get the bid over the Sooners, but that’s just me being wishful.

West Virginia should be out.

 

[Plebe]

Kind of crazy that those 5 OOC opponents could end up being very costly for Ok State. Don’t coaches realize that those games will hurt them in the long run? Why not schedule teams ranked in the 100-200 range that they should still beat easily but won’t ruin their RPI? I don’t get it.

Oklahoma has faced a tough schedule but is barely over .500. They are capable of being a good team, but I don’t think they’ve earned a tournament bid this year with their body of work. 1 top 50 wins and a slew of losses doesn’t equal a tournament appearance to me. I’d rather see an up and coming team get the bid over the Sooners, but that’s just me being wishful.

West Virginia should be out.

But if the goal is to pick the best 32 at-large teams, then Oklahoma should clearly be in. They are #21 in Sagarin and #33 in Massey. They were within 7 points of UConn in the second half, and they gave Baylor a heckuva tussle in Waco. Oklahoma is also clearly better (and has played a tougher schedule) than the Auburn team that got in last year at 17-14.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

But if the goal is to pick the best 32 at-large teams, then Oklahoma should clearly be in. They are #21 in Sagarin and #33 in Massey. They were within 7 points of UConn in the second half, and they gave Baylor a heckuva tussle in Waco. Oklahoma is also clearly better (and has played a tougher schedule) than the Auburn team that got in last year at 17-14.

Maybe they should, but the crystal ball is foggy. They really don't have any signature wins, beating USF may be the best OOC and losing to Little Rock and a weak Florida team can't be good. In conference they have been fine, but haven't beaten (unless they take Texas in their last game) the 3 teams arguably better than they are in conference (Baylor, Texas, OSU) and they split with TCU that has about the same conference record.

The route is always difficult when you have what can be called WTF losses and no signature wins.

 

[Plebe]

Maybe they should, but the crystal ball is foggy. They really don't have any signature wins, beating USF may be the best OOC and losing to Little Rock and a weak Florida team can't be good. In conference they have been fine, but haven't beaten (unless they take Texas in their last game) the 3 teams arguably better than they are in conference (Baylor, Texas, OSU) and they split with TCU that has about the same conference record.

The route is always difficult when you have what can be called WTF losses and no signature wins.

But a lot of the other bubble teams don't have any better wins than Oklahoma's win over South Florida. Charlie Creme currently has Creighton in the tournament, but their best win is over Marquette (not as good as South Florida) and they have 3 losses outside the top 100 (including to Washington).

 

[bballnut90]

But if the goal is to pick the best 32 at-large teams, then Oklahoma should clearly be in. They are #21 in Sagarin and #33 in Massey. They were within 7 points of UConn in the second half, and they gave Baylor a heckuva tussle in Waco. Oklahoma is also clearly better (and has played a tougher schedule) than the Auburn team that got in last year at 17-14.

...but are they a top 32 at large team? Their RPI is inflated because they’ve played a great schedule. No signature wins besides USF and their record is atrocious with several bad losses. Props to them for making some big games competitive but margin of victory isn’t considered by the committee.

 

[Plebe]

...but are they a top 32 at large team? Their RPI is inflated because they’ve played a great schedule. No signature wins besides USF and their record is atrocious with several bad losses. Props to them for making some big games competitive but margin of victory isn’t considered by the committee.

Sagarin and Massey would both suggest they are among the top 32 at-large candidates. I realize the committee is looking for more of a resume of wins against big teams, and that may be the thing that sinks them. I wouldn't describe their record as "atrocious" given their strength of schedule and the fact that other at-large teams in the past have had similar records. And their bad losses are just two, to Little Rock and Florida.

Also, the committee does includes "competitive in losses" as one of its selection criteria: Women's Basketball Selections 101 - Selections

 

[Ozimoto]

Just too many injuries for the Mountaineers to overcome this year.