shizzle787
King Shizzle DCCLXXXVII of the Cesspool
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College athletics is going through a transformational period and we are watching the sausage get made.
In my opinion, 2025 is going to bring a lot of closure to college sports and the NCAA as a whole.
1. NCAA tournament expansion- the NCAA will likely make a decision whether to expand the tournament and by how many teams.
My prediction is that the NCAA will announce an expansion to 76 teams and have a First Dozen round with 8 matchups featuring at-large teams and 4 matchups featuring automatic qualifiers. The integrity and format of the 64-team bracket on Thursday will remain with 4 regions of teams seeded from 1 to 16.
2. CFP expansion- the CFP will need to make a decision for the 2026 season soon. The realistic options include staying at 12, expanding to 14, or expanding to 16. There is also a question of how the bids will be distributed.
My prediction is that the field will expand to 16 teams with the top 8 teams getting a home game in the Round of 16 and the top five ranked conference champs guaranteed a top-8 seed. There will be five automatic bids and eleven at-large slots.
3. Revenue sharing- the framework for revenue sharing is mostly settled (except for possible Title IX ramifications). I believe Texas Tech's AD outlined the percentages of monies being distributed to each sport with about 90% going to FB and MBB.
My prediction is that all 68 P4 institutions will fully fund the 20.5 million revenue sharing. Also, I believe that the entirety of the Big East and Pac-12 will fund MBB at a rate commiserate with that of the P4. Memphis, Dayton and a few other programs outside of the top six leagues will as well. With regards to football, all FBS programs will opt-in to some level of revenue sharing with the Pac-12, UConn, the top half of the AAC, and a few other programs being at the higher end of revenue sharing spending for football relative to the rest of the G6. Most of leagues outside of the Ivy League and NEC will revenue share to at least some extent in MBB.
4. JUCO not counting against eligibility- the Diego Pavia situation has opened up a Pandora's box, but ultimately I believe JUCO years will not count against eligibility. However, this will be a smaller deal than most people think as JUCOs will mainly serve players not good enough to play in Division 1 out of high school and those who fall into trouble with the law or have other disciplinary issues.
5. Realignment- realignment is always in season, but it looks as if the five major basketball conferences are set for at least a couple of years.
My prediction is the next set of dominoes.
First up, I now believe the delay of NIU to the MW is because they are ultimately going to stay put. This speeds up the UC Davis timeline, and MW invites the football program to get to 10 Olympics sports members and 9 football members.
The Pac-12 is up next. They all but bribe Memphis and Tulane to join as all-sports members by paying a significant portion of their exit fees (north of 10 million each). This gets the Pac-12 to 10 Olympic sports members and 9 football members.
In the middle of this, the MEAC shores up its membership by adding Morehouse (D2) to get to 9 members.
The American is back to 12 members in football. The league adds James Madison and Georgia State to get back to 14.
The Sun Belt is now down to 12 schools. It invites Western Kentucky and Missouri State to get back to 14.
With CUSA down to 9 members, the league decides to add one school to get back to 10. Tarleton State, come on down.
What happens next might surprise some, but the WCC goes hunting in a big way: the league invites UC Irvine, UC Santa Barbara, UC San Diego, UC Riverside, and Denver to get to 14 members.
Lost in the fray, the CAA sees an opportunity and adds Howard to get back to 14 members. The MEAC then holds firm at 8.
That leaves us with the mess out west: the Summit is down to 8 members, the WAC is down to 6 members, and the Big West is down to 5 members.
Here come the vultures:
The Big Sky sees an opportunity and invites Cal Poly and Long Beach State to get to 12.
The Summit invites Abilene Christian and UT Arlington to get to 10 members.
This leaves three schools (CSU-Bakersfield, CSU-Fullerton, and CSU-Cal State Northridge) in the Big West and four in the WAC (Cal Baptist, Utah Valley, Utah Tech, and Southern Utah). The seven schools merge under the Big West banner. The league adds Cal Poly Pomona (D2) and Cal State Los Angeles (D2) to get to 9 members.
This leaves Division 1 with 367 members, 31 conferences, and 138 FBS members.
In my opinion, 2025 is going to bring a lot of closure to college sports and the NCAA as a whole.
1. NCAA tournament expansion- the NCAA will likely make a decision whether to expand the tournament and by how many teams.
My prediction is that the NCAA will announce an expansion to 76 teams and have a First Dozen round with 8 matchups featuring at-large teams and 4 matchups featuring automatic qualifiers. The integrity and format of the 64-team bracket on Thursday will remain with 4 regions of teams seeded from 1 to 16.
2. CFP expansion- the CFP will need to make a decision for the 2026 season soon. The realistic options include staying at 12, expanding to 14, or expanding to 16. There is also a question of how the bids will be distributed.
My prediction is that the field will expand to 16 teams with the top 8 teams getting a home game in the Round of 16 and the top five ranked conference champs guaranteed a top-8 seed. There will be five automatic bids and eleven at-large slots.
3. Revenue sharing- the framework for revenue sharing is mostly settled (except for possible Title IX ramifications). I believe Texas Tech's AD outlined the percentages of monies being distributed to each sport with about 90% going to FB and MBB.
My prediction is that all 68 P4 institutions will fully fund the 20.5 million revenue sharing. Also, I believe that the entirety of the Big East and Pac-12 will fund MBB at a rate commiserate with that of the P4. Memphis, Dayton and a few other programs outside of the top six leagues will as well. With regards to football, all FBS programs will opt-in to some level of revenue sharing with the Pac-12, UConn, the top half of the AAC, and a few other programs being at the higher end of revenue sharing spending for football relative to the rest of the G6. Most of leagues outside of the Ivy League and NEC will revenue share to at least some extent in MBB.
4. JUCO not counting against eligibility- the Diego Pavia situation has opened up a Pandora's box, but ultimately I believe JUCO years will not count against eligibility. However, this will be a smaller deal than most people think as JUCOs will mainly serve players not good enough to play in Division 1 out of high school and those who fall into trouble with the law or have other disciplinary issues.
5. Realignment- realignment is always in season, but it looks as if the five major basketball conferences are set for at least a couple of years.
My prediction is the next set of dominoes.
First up, I now believe the delay of NIU to the MW is because they are ultimately going to stay put. This speeds up the UC Davis timeline, and MW invites the football program to get to 10 Olympics sports members and 9 football members.
The Pac-12 is up next. They all but bribe Memphis and Tulane to join as all-sports members by paying a significant portion of their exit fees (north of 10 million each). This gets the Pac-12 to 10 Olympic sports members and 9 football members.
In the middle of this, the MEAC shores up its membership by adding Morehouse (D2) to get to 9 members.
The American is back to 12 members in football. The league adds James Madison and Georgia State to get back to 14.
The Sun Belt is now down to 12 schools. It invites Western Kentucky and Missouri State to get back to 14.
With CUSA down to 9 members, the league decides to add one school to get back to 10. Tarleton State, come on down.
What happens next might surprise some, but the WCC goes hunting in a big way: the league invites UC Irvine, UC Santa Barbara, UC San Diego, UC Riverside, and Denver to get to 14 members.
Lost in the fray, the CAA sees an opportunity and adds Howard to get back to 14 members. The MEAC then holds firm at 8.
That leaves us with the mess out west: the Summit is down to 8 members, the WAC is down to 6 members, and the Big West is down to 5 members.
Here come the vultures:
The Big Sky sees an opportunity and invites Cal Poly and Long Beach State to get to 12.
The Summit invites Abilene Christian and UT Arlington to get to 10 members.
This leaves three schools (CSU-Bakersfield, CSU-Fullerton, and CSU-Cal State Northridge) in the Big West and four in the WAC (Cal Baptist, Utah Valley, Utah Tech, and Southern Utah). The seven schools merge under the Big West banner. The league adds Cal Poly Pomona (D2) and Cal State Los Angeles (D2) to get to 9 members.
This leaves Division 1 with 367 members, 31 conferences, and 138 FBS members.
