2016 NCAA Tournament Domination: UConn Style

[RegisteredUconn]

While re-watching one of the Final Four games I heard something astonishing. One of the announcers remarked that, to earn $100 on a bet on UConn, you would have had to bet $63,000! Say what? I'm not all that much of an expert on betting but that seems like an exceedingly rare odds. I'll bet nobody needed to risk 63K to win a C-note in last Saturday's Derby.

What it does say is that UConn was an overwhelming favorite in this year's tourney. Thing is, they weren't just favorites, they delivered. In spades.

How are some jaw dropping statistics:

The tournament is six games long. Forty minutes per game. That's 4 hours of basketball. 240 minutes. 14,400 seconds. Of those 14,400 seconds of game time, UConn led for 14,088 of them. Put another way, UConn led 98% of its entire tournament. The Huskies were behind a grand total of 1 minute and 44 seconds. Discounting the time at the start of a game when the score is 0-0, only 43 seconds in six games was the opponent tied with UConn.

UConn's largest lead in the tournament was 68 points; its largest deficit was 3 points.

Discounting the time in each game before the first score, UConn led their opponents by 40+ points for longer than they were behind, tied, or led by single digits combined.
Behind: 1 minute 44 seconds
Tied: 43 seconds
Led by less that 10: 53 minutes 21 seconds
Total: 55 minutes 48 seconds

Led by 40+points: 58 minutes 2 seconds

UConn scored first in every game. In 5 of the 6 games they never trailed. There were only 4 lead changes in the entire tournament. For all intents and purposes, all games were over by halftime. Only Oregon State trailed by single digits in the second half. The average Husky lead by quarter was:
1Q 24 points
2Q 28 points
3Q 41 points
4Q 40 points

UConn led its games by 50 or more points 17% of the time.
UConn led its games by 40 or more points 24% of the time.
UConn led its games by 30 or more points 33% of the time.
UConn led its games by 20 or more points 57% of the time.
UConn led its games by 10 or more points 78% of the time.
UConn led its games by single digits 22% of the time.
UConn trailed or was tied 2% of the time (including the time when games were 0-0).

 

[UcMiami]

Nice numbers!
The one I like is:
In the championship game they gave up a 16-0 run to Syracuse which is likely the largest run they gave up over the four year careers of Breanna, Morgan, and Moriah and at the end of that run Syracuse still trailed by 17 points!

 

[BroadwayVa]

Nice numbers!
The one I like is:
In the championship game they gave up a 16-0 run to Syracuse which is likely the largest run they gave up over the four year careers of Breanna, Morgan, and Moriah and at the end of that run Syracuse still trailed by 17 points!

If memory does not fail me--that 16 point run was done by the orange when at least 2 if not 3 of the Golden 3 were warming the bench. Of course I could pop in the NC disk and check it--but unfortunately I have a life--and duty over pleasure.

 

[bags27]

While re-watching one of the Final Four games I heard something astonishing. One of the announcers remarked that, to earn $100 on a bet on UConn, you would have had to bet $63,000!

I thought at the time--and still do--that it's a specious set of odds. Maybe something to do with 538 at some point in the tournament or something. Since Vegas betting is symmetrical (minus the vig), it would mean that a winning $100 bet on UConn's opponent would pay ~ $63,000, meaning the odds were 630:1. I just don't believe that was ever so. In other words, those odds were some weird momentary asymmetry at some point in the tournament based on something like 538 calculations rather than the odds on any specific game or set of games.

 

[UconnMark]

And in the six game tournament, the UConn women defeated their opponents by an average of 39.8 points! How do you spell "domination"?...just look at the UConn jerseys and you will see it spelled with just five letters. It was a performance, under great pressure to succeed, that will be remembered for many years to come. We were blessed to be able to watch both great individual performances and outstanding team play with the two merging into one and becoming an unstoppable force. It was a thing of beauty to behold...unless you were on the other team and were too tired to really appreciate it.

 

[UcMiami]

I thought at the time--and still do--that it's a specious set of odds. Maybe something to do with 538 at some point in the tournament or something. Since Vegas betting is symmetrical (minus the vig), it would mean that a winning $100 bet on UConn's opponent would pay ~ $63,000, meaning the odds were 630:1. I just don't believe that was ever so. In other words, those odds were some weird momentary asymmetry at some point in the tournament based on something like 538 calculations rather than the odds on any specific game or set of games.

No, it was not momentary as they were astronomical from the start - before the games even began Uconn against the field and they went through the roof first after the S16 losses and then the elite eight when the only teams with any theoretical chance were beaten.
I suspect there was not a whole lot of action to start with and whoever was making the line was not bothering to cover - but you are also right, the odds were way out of symmetrical, but still pretty generous on the field.

BroadwayVA - I am pretty sure only one of the three were on the bench at any point during the run - Geno's comment came when he called a time-out - the only one he used during the tournament and one of the few he used all year for actual game situation reasons - and said 'you are aiming and history and you do not stumble into history, you have to seize it' or something like that.

 

[UcMiami]

And in the six game tournament, the UConn women defeated their opponents by an average of 39.8 points! How do you spell "domination"?...just look at the UConn jerseys and you will see it spelled with just five letters. It was a performance, under great pressure to succeed, that will be remembered for many years to come. We were blessed to be able to watch both great individual performances and outstanding team play with the two merging into one and becoming an unstoppable force. It was a thing of beauty to behold...unless you were on the other team and were too tired to really appreciate it.

Exactly matching their MOV for the year! So was the AAC just an extension of the WCBB universe as a whole?!

 

[rugbymate]

I thought at the time--and still do--that it's a specious set of odds. Maybe something to do with 538 at some point in the tournament or something. Since Vegas betting is symmetrical (minus the vig), it would mean that a winning $100 bet on UConn's opponent would pay ~ $63,000, meaning the odds were 630:1. I just don't believe that was ever so. In other words, those odds were some weird momentary asymmetry at some point in the tournament based on something like 538 calculations rather than the odds on any specific game or set of games.

I'm with you on this one...no way the odds were 1:630 to start the tournament. If that were the case so much money would have bet against UCONN resulting in the odds dropping dramatically

 

[reno tony]

I thought at the time--and still do--that it's a specious set of odds. Maybe something to do with 538 at some point in the tournament or something. Since Vegas betting is symmetrical (minus the vig), it would mean that a winning $100 bet on UConn's opponent would pay ~ $63,000, meaning the odds were 630:1. I just don't believe that was ever so. In other words, those odds were some weird momentary asymmetry at some point in the tournament based on something like 538 calculations rather than the odds on any specific game or set of games.

You are right, the odds were not that high. They were actually about -4500 which means to win $100 you need to bet $4500. That is still a heavy favorite, but not out of line with a lot of other very heavy favorites over the years. They really should not let announcers that don't know anything about sports betting talk about it during sporting events. Interesting fact about heavy favorites... normally 90% of the bets made are for the underdogs but only 10% of the money is bet on the underdogs. Sometimes they won't even put a line on the favorite... just the underdog.

 

[UcMiami]

The opening odds on Uconn were $900 to win $100 while the odds on any other team were $100 to win $600:
In Vegas, bet is on UConn women or the field

By the final four it was up to $2135 t0 win $100 and by the final it was $7000 to win $100:
Sports bets with the same odds as UConn losing the women's NCAA Tournament

Here's why betting on the UConn women to win the national title wasn't worth the risk

Not sure where the $63,000 came from.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Not sure where the $63,000 came from.

It was widely reported. Somebody's typo?

"Monday's television broadcast made note that to win $100 betting on UConn, you'd have to put up $63,000, so for the low, low collateral of two brand-new Nissan Pathfinders, you win the honor of eating dinner for four at TGI Friday's. " UConn deserves our respect, no matter what.

 

[Carnac]

Nice numbers!
The one I like is:
In the championship game they gave up a 16-0 run to Syracuse which is likely the largest run they gave up over the four year careers of Breanna, Morgan, and Moriah and at the end of that run Syracuse still trailed by 17 points!

As we all know, and have seen many times, sustained runs of this nature usually burn lots of fuel and energy. Meaning that the team that comes from behind and catches up, usually loses because they kicked in the "after burners", and are spent. They've got nothing left. That 16-0 run was the only time during the entire game that the Orange fans had a chance to stand and clear their throats. A very brief moment of optimism. A few moments later, after order was restored, Syracuse was again back on their heels (in a deep hole) looking up at the Huskies.

 

[UcMiami]

It was widely reported. Somebody's typo?

"Monday's television broadcast made note that to win $100 betting on UConn, you'd have to put up $63,000, so for the low, low collateral of two brand-new Nissan Pathfinders, you win the honor of eating dinner for four at TGI Friday's. " UConn deserves our respect, no matter what.

That may well have been for the specific elite eight game against TX, the team they had last seen off in a 50 point laugher?

 

[Suebird10fan]

That may well have been for the specific elite eight game against TX, the team they had last seen off in a 50 point laugher?

typo is much more plausible

 

[TitleTown]

The opening odds on Uconn were $900 to win $100 while the odds on any other team were $100 to win $600:
In Vegas, bet is on UConn women or the field

By the final four it was up to $2135 t0 win $100 and by the final it was $7000 to win $100:
Sports bets with the same odds as UConn losing the women's NCAA Tournament

Here's why betting on the UConn women to win the national title wasn't worth the risk

Not sure where the $63,000 came from.

The $63,000 was the money line wager on the UConn vs Texas game,

Texas vs. Connecticut - Game Recap - March 28, 2016 - ESPN

 

[MilfordHusky]

In terms of MOV, I believe that we set the record for Round 3 (Regional semi-final win over Mississippi State) and Round 5 (National semi-final win over Oregon State). If not for that Syracuse 16-0 run, we would have broken the record for MOV in Round 6 (National championship game). The finals MOV still belongs to the 2013 team that decimated Louisville by 33.

I believe the smallest MOV--21 against Texas--was the largest ever for the smallest MOV.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

Want more?

Every team save Texas fell behind by at least 30 points during their game. The 30 point leads were achieved once in the 1st quarter, once in the 2nd quarter, twice in the 3rd quarter and once in the 4th quarter. Texas was behind by, at most, a mere 23 points.

UConn assumed a double digit in the 1st quarter against every team except Duquesne. It took until 3 minutes and 51 seconds of the second quarter remained before the Huskies got their first 10+ point lead.

UConn lead by 20 or more points before halftime of every game except Texas. The Longhorns held on for 1 minute and 5 seconds of the third quarter before falling behind by 20+.