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2016-2017

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sixthmanning

sixthmanning

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Pure speculation on my part but I believe Jim Delany will finalize his sixteen team B1G prior to negotiating the league's next first-tier rights contract. The two schools I see him taking are UConn and West Virginia.

UConn is the easy answer for the 15th team since the AAC buyout is low, men's & women's basketball is nationally relevant, and the school is a few years away from achieving AAU membership.

West Virginia brings strong TV interest for football and men's basketball but the academic situation would be of some concern. I believe in this case, just as it was with Nebraska, AAU membership will not be a disqualifier because of the advantages that come with 16 teams.

The Big 12 would be willing release West Virginia from its Grant of Rights due to travel concerns and limited options now in terms of expansion to the east. The Big 12 would then replace WVU with BYU as the Cougars are coming to realize that football independence isn't all it's cracked up to be. The Big 12 can do this because ESPN owns both the rights to the league's first-tier content as well as BYU's home games.
 
Big10 is about markets, of which WVU provides none (unless you count Pittsburgh).
Don't see it happening.
 
UConn has a better chance of ending up in the ACC by 2016 than West Virginia ever being invited to the B1G. Academics aren't the end all be all with the B1G, but good luck getting Michigan, Northwestern, on board with adding West Virginia. Florida State which has better academic profile than WVU and better football wasn't even one of the B1G's top 3 ACC choices behind 1.North Carolina 2. Virginia 3. Georgia Tech.

You are better speculating that Missouri will leave the SEC which has no penalty and goes to the B1G along with UConn than speculating on WVU to the B1G. Oliver Luck knew the B1G/ACC weren't options for WVU and that is why he smartly capitalized on the Big XII's vulnerability after losing Nebraska, Texas A&M, and Missouri and volunteered the West Virginia Mountaineers as a remedy for the Big XII's contract problem and got them out of the Big East ASAP.
 
West Virginia to the B1G? Hahahahaha
 
Yeah, UConn/Missouri is far more likely than UConn/WVU (not that UConn/Missouri will happen)

Speaking of Missouri, will the SEC force their schools to sign a GOR prior to their network popping up? If so, whats the timeline of this happening? Will that be a day that Missouri ultimately decides once and for all which league they want (If the B1G is interested in them)..
 
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If the B1G wants to get to 16 teams by then, they will make a hard run at Texas and Oklahoma. If that doesn't work and they really are depserate to get to 16 (which I doubt), then they could do a lot worse than Kansas and UConn to get to 16 (easy transition with one team each for the already established East/West divisions). The B1G would still be conference 1B in football (SEC will always own 1A), but they could actually make a run at the ACC for basketball supremacy. When you compare teams, I think the B1G would be a better basketball conference than the ACC:

UNC - Kansas
Duke - Indiana
Syracuse - UConn
Louisville - Michigan St
Pittsburgh - Ohio St
Notre Dame - Michigan
NC State - Wisconsin
Florida State - Maryland
Miami - Illinois
Georgia Tech - Purdue
Wake Forest - Iowa
Clemson - Minnesota
Virginia - Nebraska
Boston College - Rutgers
Virginia Tech - Northwestern
 
The SEC will NOT always own 1A. Power in conferences always ebb and flow over time.
 
Yes, the B1G with UConn and Kansas would be comparable to the ACC in basketball, maybe better. And the SEC is perceived as 1A because football is perceived as the most valuable property. Yet it's only a matter of time before that perception changes as the value comes to be extracted from basketball as thoroughly as it is now being extracted from football. The B1G is a more rounded conference than the SEC and the ACC and Pac would be in the mix, especially if the Pac is able to bring in Texas.
 
West Virginia is a complete non-starter for the Big Ten. The league has ZERO desire to go to 16 for the sake of getting to 16. I know that people here have an interest in further upheaval, but I wish people would realize that. They'll wait at 14 forever before ever considering WVU.
 
West Virginia being a complete non-starter for the Big Ten is pure speculation as well. No one but Jim Delany and the B1G Presidents know the direction the league is headed.
 
sixthmanning said:
West Virginia being a complete non-starter for the Big Ten is pure speculation as well. No one but Jim Delany and the B1G Presidents know the direction the league is headed.
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Well, I could also say that Northern Illinois being a complete non-starter for the Big Ten would also be pure speculation if that's the definition. I think we all know what the Big Ten is realistically looking for:

AAU status
Football tradition
Large market with growing demographics

A super elite football brand like Nebraska or Notre Dame can trump the other factors (although NU still had AAU status when it was added), but that's the combo that the Big Ten has looked for every time. WVU has good football tradition, but nowhere near to compensate for the lack of the other factors.
 
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frankthetank said:
Well, I could also say that Northern Illinois being a complete non-starter for the Big Ten would also be pure speculation if that's the definition. I think we all know what the Big Ten is realistically looking for:

AAU status
Football tradition
Large market with growing demographics

A super elite football brand like Nebraska or Notre Dame can trump the other factors (although NU still had AAU status when it was added), but that's the combo that the Big Ten has looked for every time. WVU has good football tradition, but nowhere near to compensate for the lack of the other factors.
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You can remove "Football tradition" from your list. I think taking MD and RU last time proved you don't need that to be invited.
 
I don't know Jim Delany, but I would assume he is similar to many powerful people - they start with or develop big ego's over time.

Swofford just gave him a couple of forearm shivers by adding ND and by locking everyone in to the GOR. And these ACC teams I think are going to be in it for the long haul, longer than just 2027. The ACC is a great league for all non-FB sports and a good to very good league for football.

So is Delany really going to wait 15 years to do something else? In 15 years Delany could be in the ground. I would anticipate time is not a luxury for him. He will want to add two teams somehow someway sooner than Frank thinks.

Now that doesn't mean the presidents would listen to him. But I would imagine at some point in the next 1-3 years he will push hard for 2 or 3 or 4 schools, and let the presidents pick out of those schools. The question is who is on that list.

UConn
Missouri?
any potential Big 12 schools? Or would their own GOR keep them out?
Someone else under the radar?

If they wait for 2016, UConn's placement in any list will have more certainty positive or negative, regarding potential AAU status, regarding the BTN situation in the NYC area, regarding UConn's football program, etc etc..

I don't buy Delany will wait until he's in a coffin. He'll push for 16 teams the question is who and will the B1G presidents say OK.

Just my opinion.
 
CTGoonie said:
You can remove "Football tradition" from your list. I think taking MD and RU last time proved you don't need that to be invited.
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It's on the list, but so are other things. With Penn State, they hit a home run. A school that had everything. Markets, Academics, Football. Nebraska was a pure football brand addition, along with a small but very strong market. Having added two legendary football teams, the B1G could afford to focus on markets and AAU, with Maryland and RU. There's a balance to all of this. I don't think UConn is out of any consideration, but I do think we'd only pair up with a very strong football program like FSU. Kansas and UConn would be a non-starter. That's why I never believed any UConn and Virginia rumors. If UConn was in the Big 12 the next 10 years, and was kicking butt in football, that changes the math. But for now, we are not viable unless there is another Nebraska type add to come with us.
 
I appreciate everything frankthetank, has brought to the board, but we get it, UConn is not getting in anytime soon into the big ten. Do you really need to repeat the same thing in every thread?
 
West Virginia's market is the same size as Nebraska's, and it borders Washington DC and has audience share there and complements Maryland. It creates new rivalries in WVU-PSU, WVU-OSU, and WVU-Md. If they do indeed value old grainy TV footage, then Jerry West playing basketball is a valuable property. Their football performance in recent years has not been much worse than Nebraska's, and their basketball performance has been quite a bit better.

It would be a major letdown for the B1G if they needed West Virginia to get to 16, and they wouldn't do it unless they had lost hope in better school, but it's not totally unthinkable if the top Big 12 schools were unavailable and the ACC was about to add UConn and West Virginia and lock up the east coast and the best basketball conference. As I've argued repeatedly, adding inventory to the BTN has to be a major goal for the B1G because the network might become unviable if it is too small. They would probably rather be at 20 schools than 14. The goal is grabbing a large share of ESPN's $5 billion in profit and the NCAA's $500 mn in NCAA basketball tourney revenue. They need a large share of major college teams to achieve that.

So yes: the B1G will pursue Missouri or any number of B12 programs first. But they could do worse than UConn and West Virginia, if the goal is to be competitive in the East with the ACC. West Virginia is another one of those markets like Nebraska that lacks pro teams and loves their flagship state U.
 
noeynox said:
I appreciate everything frankthetank, has brought to the board, but we get it, UConn is not getting in anytime soon into the big ten. Do you really need to repeat the same thing in every thread?
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With every new development in realignment, old opinions need refinement. It's still interesting. Frank's opinions unfortunately haven't been updated since the issue was the shift to a football playoff and how to win that revenue. Now the issue is how to make conference networks successful, the Fox-ESPN battle, and whether conferences and Fox can capture more of ESPN's and CBS's revenue and profits. That requires more of a basketball and markets focus and for whatever reason Frank hasn't really wrapped his mind around the business issues yet.
 
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WVU and BC (for the Boston market)......they figure they got NYC with Rutgers/Penn State

not a lot of TV's on Connecticut cable syetems=not too much more revenue for BTN.....compared to Boston. Doesn't matter if you watch the games or not its the amount of money gained by raising sport channel fees as part of an overall package
 
If the state agrees to a $2/mo carriage tax and require that UCONN's carrier (BTN in this case) to be carried on basic tier. We make the $30M/yr ante.

What's been missing is the interest by anyone outside CT in watching UCONN FB games. In order to change that we need to play and beat Top 25 teams on a frequent enough basis to be rank consistently ourselves.

For all the progress made in the last ten years, and it's been stunning, it is a glaring hole in our resume that those in the know can see clearly. And we don't get the RU NYC exemption to that rule.


Sent from my MB860 using Tapatalk 2
 
A couple of thoughts:

1. What about the Big 12 conference as a possible destination?
2. If Missouri leaves the SEC, why not UConn? That conference would become special in hoops, particularly the women's version.
 
With respect to Frank's opinion on WVU, it may be speculation, technically, but it makes sense. What does WVU bring to the B1G that they don't have? They bring down the academic profile, and have no legitimate shot at ever being an AAU school. They have a solid following, but they are in a small state, which would immediately be the smallest in the conference, with no-brainer expansion team Nebraska being just ahead. The closest TV markets are already controlled by the conference, so they wouldn't be able to charge more and/or higher subscriber fees for the BTN, which is priority #1. WVU does nothing for NYC, and barely anything at all for DC. Basically, WVU only brings them another relatively strong football program, which, sure, might be nice for the B1G, but not something they're in such desperate need of, that they'd overlook the severe location/population/TV and academic shortfalls that they present.

At least UConn, while still a pipe dream, brings a new and relatively untapped TV market for them, they could expand BTN further into New England, and up their fees for NYC, our academics are leaps and bounds ahead of WVU, and we have a legitimate chance at soon being an AAU school.

Our main problem is the perception of our football program is that it's basically a MAC program. Tiny stadium, no tradition, a couple of minor bowl wins, a (perceived) massive BCS bowl failure, no big NFL alums, etc. Whether or not those things are true, that's the perception. So far, that's clearly been something no one has overlooked.
 
pj said:
Yes, the B1G with UConn and Kansas would be comparable to the ACC in basketball, maybe better. And the SEC is perceived as 1A because football is perceived as the most valuable property. Yet it's only a matter of time before that perception changes as the value comes to be extracted from basketball as thoroughly as it is now being extracted from football. The B1G is a more rounded conference than the SEC and the ACC and Pac would be in the mix, especially if the Pac is able to bring in Texas.
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If the B1G takes Kansas and UCONN, it blows the ACC out of the water in hoops. In the ACC you will continue to have top ten considerations Duke, UNC and Cuse, then top 25 teams Pitt and NC State(?.)

The B1G will then have Kansas, UCONN, Indiana, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, OSU and Maryland as top 25 teams, with 3-4 of them being top 10 in any given year.
 
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"The Big Ten is in the early stages of finding a location for its East Coast office. The office could be included in the existing office of one of the league's television partners. New York is the most likely destination for the office, Delany said." http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/76016/delany-talks-committee-ed-obannon-case. I find it difficult to believe that moving forward with an East Coast office is being done without plan for further expansion in the East. I find it difficult to believe as well that UConn would not be a part of that expansion.
 
WestCoastHusky said:
If Buffalo changes its name to New York State University (see here: http://blogs.buffalonews.com/campus/2013/04/ub-or-not-ub-that-is-the-question.html), it is very possible for UCONN and Buffalo to be a pair for the B1G. B1G would add two flagship state universities and CT and NY TV markets. AAC should really think about adding Buffalo if they change their name to New York State University.
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I can't emphasize this enough: Syracuse has never (NEVER) been New York's Team. They are a team for their alumni base & a bunch of Townies from Onondaga County. Reach to Rochester? a smidge. Utica? big. Albany? No way. So ... the lack of initiative with the State University system in Sport (going back to the 60s) has always been a sleeping giant. Buffalo (New York State University) has a 2020 plan to significantly increase the enrollment. It has room. It is in a good location. Sports in that region? Buffalo as a municipality has declined. Toronto ... and Western NY has some great vibrancy. Golisano is a real deep pocket friend to have on your side. There is Fracking money out there too.
 
Yeah, Syracuse got the reputation as New York's football team because graduates from Cuse's media school worked in the City. That's changed, though. The media isn't nearly as NYC centric as it used to be. In 10 years, Syracuse will be an afterthought. A fading, private school in the rust belt. Irregardless of whatever conference they and we are in, we're passing them. They know it and we know it. That's why they hate us.
 
The Funster said:
Yeah, Syracuse got the reputation as New York's football team because graduates from Cuse's media school worked in the City. That's changed, though. The media isn't nearly as NYC centric as it used to be. In 10 years, Syracuse will be an afterthought. A fading, private school in the rust belt. Irregardless of whatever conference they and we are in, we're passing them. They know it and we know it. That's why they hate us.
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A Vibrant State U. in beautiful Amherst has room to grow. Lots of room. With solid Leadership, they can do amazing things.
 
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