2016-2017 Season Predictions

[bmayuc]

One WEEK! Time for guesses

Overall Record - 25-11 (13-5) - Sweet 16, AAC Regular Season Champions

Summary: Jalen Adams moves into the Ben Gordon role, and Alterique proves he is game-ready right away. Backcourt athelticism is markedly upgraded and obvious. Frontcourt-as-a-Service(FaaS) is Brimah-Enoch-Facey as needed in the '5', while Durham grows into spread 4 role. Larrier is a complete mystery to me, my guess would be he is basically Purvis #2. Inconsistent, explosive, etc. We will see. I think given our much better dribbling capability this year, I think our offense will be a few PPG higher than the last few years.

Starters:

G: Jalen Adams: 30 mpg, 14 ppg, 4 rpg, 4 apg --> Grows into BG-lite role at combo guard
G: Rodney Purvis: 28 mpg, 16 ppg, 3 rpg, 3 apg --> Should be 6th man, wont be
F: Terry Larrier: 20 mpg, 9 ppg, 6 rpg, 1 apg, --> starts early, may swap w/ AG if struggles/inconsistent
F: Juwan Durham: 23 mpg, 8 ppg, 7 rpg, 2 bpg --> Too much talent/versatility. Hopefully lasts the year?
C: Amida Brimah: 20 mpg, 8 ppg, 6 rpg, 3 bpg --> is what he is. Some matchups +, some matchups -

First G: Alterique Gilbert: 28 mpg, 12 ppg, 3 rpg, 4 apg --> legit alert: BG or Khalid-like Frosh year potential
First F/C - Steve Enoch: 18 mpg, 6 ppg, 6 rpg, no blocks ever. --> Really like as scoring big this year.
Mamadou Diarra: 10 mpg, 5 ppg, 5 rpg, 1 bpg --> Reminds me so much of Adrien. Strong, Solid, Consistent.
Vance Jackson: 10 mpg, 5 ppg, 2 rpg --> time dependent on matchup or how he's shooting.
Christian Vital: garbage time or foul-reserve
Kentan Facey: garbage time or foul-reserve; may interchange with Enoch depending on Enoch Defense.

Conclusion: It will be a fun year, but there may be some bumps. I think AG will prove he is legit right away, enabling pretty fun 3 guard lineups and a ton of roster flexibility. Jalen will be solid, thought I am probably in the minority thinking that he is limited by his lack of range and P&R skill. That is about all we know. If we find solid, reliable contributions at the Wing/Forward spot(looking at you Larrier/Jackson) and Forward/Center(Durham/Enoch/Mamadou), it will set up a solid foundation from which our explosive and inconsistent young group can run some teams out of the building. Given no injuries, my bet is that we win the AAC regular season, and make a short run in the NCAAs before running into a rugged veteran team that will grind us out in the Sweet 16.

#goodvibes #pleasenofireolliethreads

 

[husky429]

You have us scoring 80+ points a game on average. I don't see that happening even if this team is more of a running team than years past.

I'd say tone down the expectations for AG and Durham. A first year, very short PG is likely to struggle. Ollie likes to bring in his guards slowly--think Jalen last year. We had Gibbs so he had time to develop.

Durham may get to a 12/7/2 type numbers by the end of the year but he WILL struggle early. He hasn't played competitive basketball in almost two years, and he clearly has a mental barrier going on.

I'd love to see Enoch and brimah push each other for minutes. that would be very very very good for our front court. And it would say a ton about Enoch's summer work.

 

[upstater]

Nice write-up. I bet you Jalen show more range than last year. He has a sweet looking shot. Being a freshman means you defer a lot.

 

[PAHusky]

One WEEK! Time for guesses

Overall Record - 25-11 (13-5) - Sweet 16, AAC Regular Season Champions

Summary: Jalen Adams moves into the Ben Gordon role, and Alterique proves he is game-ready right away. Backcourt athelticism is markedly upgraded and obvious. Frontcourt-as-a-Service(FaaS) is Brimah-Enoch-Facey as needed in the '5', while Durham grows into spread 4 role. Larrier is a complete mystery to me, my guess would be he is basically Purvis #2. Inconsistent, explosive, etc. We will see. I think given our much better dribbling capability this year, I think our offense will be a few PPG higher than the last few years.

Starters:

G: Jalen Adams: 30 mpg, 14 ppg, 4 rpg, 4 apg --> Grows into BG-lite role at combo guard
G: Rodney Purvis: 28 mpg, 16 ppg, 3 rpg, 3 apg --> Should be 6th man, wont be
F: Terry Larrier: 20 mpg, 9 ppg, 6 rpg, 1 apg, --> starts early, may swap w/ AG if struggles/inconsistent
F: Juwan Durham: 23 mpg, 8 ppg, 7 rpg, 2 bpg --> Too much talent/versatility. Hopefully lasts the year?
C: Amida Brimah: 20 mpg, 8 ppg, 6 rpg, 3 bpg --> is what he is. Some matchups +, some matchups -

First G: Alterique Gilbert: 28 mpg, 12 ppg, 3 rpg, 4 apg --> legit alert: BG or Khalid-like Frosh year potential
First F/C - Steve Enoch: 18 mpg, 6 ppg, 6 rpg, no blocks ever. --> Really like as scoring big this year.
Mamadou Diarra: 10 mpg, 5 ppg, 5 rpg, 1 bpg --> Reminds me so much of Adrien. Strong, Solid, Consistent.
Vance Jackson: 10 mpg, 5 ppg, 2 rpg --> time dependent on matchup or how he's shooting.
Christian Vital: garbage time or foul-reserve
Kentan Facey: garbage time or foul-reserve; may interchange with Enoch depending on Enoch Defense.

Conclusion: It will be a fun year, but there may be some bumps. I think AG will prove he is legit right away, enabling pretty fun 3 guard lineups and a ton of roster flexibility. Jalen will be solid, thought I am probably in the minority thinking that he is limited by his lack of range and P&R skill. That is about all we know. If we find solid, reliable contributions at the Wing/Forward spot(looking at you Larrier/Jackson) and Forward/Center(Durham/Enoch/Mamadou), it will set up a solid foundation from which our explosive and inconsistent young group can run some teams out of the building. Given no injuries, my bet is that we win the AAC regular season, and make a short run in the NCAAs before running into a rugged veteran team that will grind us out in the Sweet 16.

#goodvibes #pleasenofireolliethreads

Thanks for the write up, disagree with some of it. Facey is probably going to start at the 4 to begin the season, and I wouldn't sleep on him being a decent contributor all year - not sure why you'd pencil Durham and Diarra in above him in the pecking order when we haven't seen them play a minute of college basketball yet and Durham is coming off a long, long layoff. I don't think Larrier has to worry about his starting spot being taken by Alterique as I think he may end up as the best player on the team this year. If Alterique has a bazz/boat freshman type year I'd be more than happy, don't think he's at El-Amin as a freshman level. Purvis may have a breakout season and, even if he stays around the level he's at this year, not sure why you'd think that, again, a freshman who's never played a second of basketball should demote him to 6th man. Overall, I'd say you hugely undervaluing the experience and talent of our upperclassmen and hugely overestimating how easy it will be for some of these freshman to adjust to the college game.

I think we finish second in the AAC regular season behind Cincy, win the tournament, run to the Elite 8, HamD commits, Bunkey gets name S + C coach in the offseason, and we win title 5 in 2018.

 

[JSM1970]

I would put Diarra into the garbage to no time. Guy was barely top 150, can't see him coming and playing minutes over Facey.

Would also expect Facey to start over Durham and see several front court combinations where even Larrier could play some 4 if they play RP, AG, JA together or play Vance for some minutes at the 3.

 

[Rocktheworld]

We have not averaged more than 72 PPG since 07-08, and have only averaged over 80 a game once this millenium (05-06). Not sure how we get to 83+ ( you didn't even factor in Vital and Facey, who will certainly average at least 2-3 pts a game, bringing your total up closer to 90).

If AG can come in and produce 12 4 and 3 in 28 mpg, you're talking about a rookie of the year level year. That would arguably be the best freshman guard stat line since Rudy Gay came through ten years ago and was one and done as a lottery pick (granted he had other physical gifts that Rique doesn't have [and Rudy did it in the old Big East]). Jalen, as impressed as we came away last year and as much hype as we have for him this year, averaged 7 2 and 2 in 23 minutes. We haven't had a freshman guard average over 25 minutes since Omar's first season, which really impressed a lot of us. Only he, Dyson, and Gay averaged double figure ppg as freshmen in the last decade.

I also just don't see a freshman big averaging 23 minutes after not playing 2 years because of torn ACLs. I don't care how good he was before; we have too many bodies for him to have to put that much strain on his knees right away. We have had very few freshmen bigs since Hasheem's class to average more than 15 mpg

 

[Dogbreath2U]

We have not averaged more than 72 PPG since 07-08, and have only averaged over 80 a game once this millenium (05-06). Not sure how we get to 83+ ( you didn't even factor in Vital and Facey, who will certainly average at least 2-3 pts a game, bringing your total up closer to 90).

If AG can come in and produce 12 4 and 3 in 28 mpg, you're talking about a rookie of the year level year. That would arguably be the best freshman guard stat line since Rudy Gay came through ten years ago and was one and done as a lottery pick (granted he had other physical gifts that Rique doesn't have [and Rudy did it in the old Big East]). Jalen, as impressed as we came away last year and as much hype as we have for him this year, averaged 7 2 and 2 in 23 minutes. We haven't had a freshman guard average over 25 minutes since Omar's first season, which really impressed a lot of us. Only he, Dyson, and Gay averaged double figure ppg as freshmen in the last decade.

I also just don't see a freshman big averaging 23 minutes after not playing 2 years because of torn ACLs. I don't care how good he was before; we have too many bodies for him to have to put that much strain on his knees right away. We have had very few freshmen bigs since Hasheem's class to average more than 15 mpg

Not a major issue, but Rudy was not one and done and not a guard.

 

[Rocktheworld]

Not a major issue, but Rudy was not one and done and not a guard.

Jesus my bad, thanks. Well the latter f-up further proves my point to a degree

Gay won BE RotY averaging 12 5 and 1 in 28 minutes. So yeah, if AG puts up what is predicted in the OP....

 

[AZHuskiePop]

It's not 2015 that's analigious to this year as a downside it's 2010
That year we had no clear leader as Dyson tried to be the crunch time guy when the ball should have been in Kemba hands .
My one concern is that a Rodney makes the same mistake JD did .
That conflict can't happen if we're are to be Successfull.hJA is the man capable of making everyone better. I want a Rodney to hustle for space and catch and shoot.
He can be an assassin if he sticks to the script. He should watch films of RIP

It's also unfair to count on freshman to do anything else accept be complimentry players. If Gilbert get 6-8 point and 3 assists a game thats serious bench strength.
Injuries always require you to change the plan however.

 

[Huskyforlife]

PG-Adams-15-2-5-1st round pick this year
SG-Purvis-16-4-1
SF-Larrier-9ppg-5RB-2Ast-Inconsistent, but shows flashes of greatness, sort of like Adams last year.
PF-Facey-6ppg-7rpg-1.5bpg-Holds down spot, really helps make up for Hamilton rebounding. But is what he is on offense.
C-Brimah-What he's been since he got here.
First Guard-Gilbert-Gonna make eye poping plays, but frustrate the hell out of us sometimes
First Big-Enoch-He'll play well enough to give us confidence he can be the starter next year.
8-Jackson-Very important to our sucess next year. Will be a key contributor playing some stretch 4.
9-Durham- I believe the hype, but can't project him starting yet. Needs to get stronger. Could be starting at some point.
10-Vital-Won't play much this year, only with seroius foul trouble, or if Jalen can't slide over to the 2 effectivly.
11-Diarra-For the first time in a long time, we're deep at the 4-5 position. He only plays in a number of scenarios that are unlikely to take place. Stud by his junior/senior season. Not an indication of his talent.

 

[TheChamps990411]

85ppg and we go 25-11? This is college ball if we average that many ppg we`re winning 30+ games. We`re not scoring that much. This team scores low to mid 70`s

 

[David 76]

Elite eight

 

[Tenspro2002]

If we lose 10 games before Selection Sunday, we're not going to be in the Tournament.

 

[JimHurley]

I'll be happy with this team getting past the first weekend of the tournament. I expect Adams, Larrier, and Purvis to do the major bulk of scoring. I also expect Facey to surprise everybody. I say he'll lead the American in rebounding.

 

[Towney007]

Yeah kind of pleasantly surprised to see people's predictions so tempered this year.

I don't deviate from general concensus this year either. I think the floor for this team is higher than last year's. I really think this team is a pretty sure bet to be in the tournament, but I do expect there to be some pretty signifiant bumps. This team - at least the core of talent - is really young and that's going to mean a lot of moments that make us say 'wow' a lot - both ways - good and bad. I think the back court will evolve into a real weapon down the stretch.

The question is really where their ceiling is. The talent is all in place for a really deep run in the tournament; and IF the freshman can contribute in the backcourt they're going to have a solid shot. The real question is going to be the front court. Rebounding will be huge and tbh, I think the majority of the season is going to hinge on how good Brimah is this year - especially on the boards; while the other big key being Stephen Enoch's improvement. If he can make a big step forward and Brimah becomes that significant force down low - sky's the limit honestly. If they don't - more of the same from last year - with talent dragging them to a slightly better result. I'm not sure they'll have the size to bag with more physical teams, too.

So I think #16 is really, really, really fair for now. I think from what we KNOW about this team - yeah - that's what they are - borderline top 20 team. Like everyone else, i'd be thrilled with them getting out of the first weekend of the tournament - and everything else after that becomes gravy. I can also see this team getting in and being very vulnerable to an early upset and outclassed by more experienced teams. Just depends.

I'm optimistic this year, though. NEXT year though -that's going to be our chance.

 

[JSM1970]

If everyone stays preseason top 10 next year, if Diallo comes top 5, if Diallo & Bamba top 3

I'm optimistic this year, though. NEXT year though -that's going to be our chance.

 

[Slasher]

If we lose 10 games before Selection Sunday, we're not going to be in the Tournament.

Cincy lost 11 games before selection Sunday and made the tournament. It's not the like the AAC is THAT bad.

 

[Palatine]

This is how I look at every year.

Sweet Sixteen = Our birthright
Elite Eight = Good year
Final Four = Great year

I'm looking forward to another great year. The key is having a much better regular season than we have lately. A better regular season gives us an easier path through the tourney. Time to start being UConn again.

 

[Jerry1714]

If we lose 10 games before Selection Sunday, we're not going to be in the Tournament.

Tulsa made it last year with 10 loses and an RPI of 60 and SOS 62.

There is no evidence to support your point.

 

[Stainmaster]

Tulsa made it last year with 10 loses and an RPI of 60 and SOS 62.

There is no evidence to support your point.

It is never too early to begin the doom and gloom.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Cincy lost 11 games before selection Sunday and made the tournament. It's not the like the AAC is THAT bad.

Tulsa made it last year with 10 loses and an RPI of 60 and SOS 62.

There is no evidence to support your point.

And each of those teams played 4 games against Top 25 opponents.

If we lose against Oklahoma State (almost required if we are to lose 10 games overall), there's a chance we play only 1 ranked team all year. That number of losses, with that weak a schedule, isn't going to cut it.

 

[champs99and04]

And each of those teams played 4 games against Top 25 opponents.

If we lose against Oklahoma State (almost required if we are to lose 10 games overall), there's a chance we play only 1 ranked team all year. That number of losses, with that weak a schedule, isn't going to cut it.

Why is it required?? What's it matter if we lose to Oklahoma State or UNC? It's actually more likely we pick up two losses if we do beat OSu because we'll play better competition.

The way our schedule is set up, we get in with 10 losses. I almost guarantee it. Our cupcakes are healthy cupcakes and that makes a difference, and the conference isn't as bad as people make it out to be.

You have to find 30-something at-large teams.

 

[TitleTown]

I just don't see this team being as good as others do. I think they are a 2oish win team that may win a game in the NCAA tournament, but not much more. I think they will struggle scoring all year.

 

[Jerry1714]

And each of those teams played 4 games against Top 25 opponents.

If we lose against Oklahoma State (almost required if we are to lose 10 games overall), there's a chance we play only 1 ranked team all year. That number of losses, with that weak a schedule, isn't going to cut it.

We are more likely to lose 10 games if we beat OSU since we would play a harder schedule.

 

[superjohn]

Scrappy has us going undefeated.