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Question: Did the 2016-17 UConn WCBB Starting Five—Nurse, Collier, Williams, KLS and Chong—have the best year as a group of any starting five in UConn WCBB history?
Answer: Of course not, because they did not lead the team to an undefeated season culminating in an NCAA Championship.
Putting that critical qualification aside, how do the 16-17 starting five rank among other starting five UConn WCBB teams over the past 20+years? I have yet to conduct anywhere near a complete investigation. And statistics can only tell us part of the story. (Re-read last sentence.) That said, a review of the numbers suggests that the 16-17 starters may well have put up as fine a year as any starting five in UConn history. Given the fact that the starters were comprised of 1 senior, 2 juniors, and 2 sophomores; given the departure the previous year of three All-American seniors; given the challenging schedule, lack of bench support, and relative lack of size . . . the 16-17 starters put up incredible numbers, both in absolute terms, and relative to other years. I hope to assemble stats that will assist in this query.
Let’s begin by looking back at how the 16-17 starters stack up, individually and as a group with the starters from the 2015-16 team. (This data is taken from stats.ncaa.org.) I have taken some liberties here, including (most notably) only including figures based on a 15-16 starting team consisting of the core four (Stewie, Morgan, Kia, Moriah) and KLS. We know that KLS did not begin starting regularly until about, what? 1/3 of the way into the season. As a result, these figures tend to under-represent the overall potency of the 15-16 starters because they omit contributions by other starters (chiefly, Collier and Williams) in games where KLS did not start. I candidly admit that a better comparison would address player-by-player contributions. That said, we can roughly assume that in games KLS did not start, she received playing time similar in amount to that of whoever started in her stead. (A quick and dirty review of about one-third of the games from early in the season bear this out.)
Finally, please bear in mind that I am not a statistician, and may have made some glaring logical error in generating the below. Please point out anything you believe compromises our efforts to arrive at "the truth".
Here are the individual and collective key stats for the 2016-17 starters:
And here are the figures for the 2015-16 starters:
Minutes
The 16-17 starters logged 429 total minutes playing time more than the 15-16 starters. This means that on the year the 16-17 starters played approximately 1.78 more games per starter than the 15-16 team starters—this despite the team playing one less game (38-0, vs. 36-1).
As we know the 16-17 starters’ higher overall minutes is largely because of the lack of team depth. Notwithstanding, the 16-17 starters had higher FG made and higher FG%. That is noteworthy since more minutes over the course of a season can result in greater overall fatigue as the season wears on. This is particularly the case when (as is almost always the case), the minutes are logged during a comparable or shorter timeframe.
FG
The 16-17 starters had more FG attempts, makes, and (significantly) a higher shooting percentage.
3PG
Likewise, the 16-17 starters had more 3PGA, shot made, and (again, significantly) a higher shooting percentage.
Free Throws
Here, the 15-16 team has a slight advantage as to percentage (about 1.3% higher). However, the 16-17 starters went to the line significantly more often that their 15-16 counterparts: more than 27% more trips to the line and makes. That is an impressive difference, resulting in 119 more points scored from the line by the 16-17 starters. While part of this may reflect more overall playing time, adjusting the numbers for playing time does not explain everything. The 15-16 starters played about 430 total minutes less (or 8% percent less playing time). Hence, even adjusting for this difference, the 15-16 starters would still have gone to the line about 120 times less during the year than the 16-17 starters. I welcome thoughts explaining this interesting disparity.
Points
This is a bit of a surprise. The 16-17 starters scored 344 more points than the 15-16 starters. Again, that is partially because of the difference in playing time. However, even adjusting for that the 16-17 starters would have scored 152 more points (or about .025 more points per minute play) than the 15-16 starters.
Rebounds
This is another surprise. The 16-17 starters significantly out-rebounded their 15-16 counterparts: 72 more ORebs., 85 more DRebs., and 157 more total rebounds. Again, adjusting for minutes still shows a decided 16-17 advantage in each category. Indeed, even adjusting for minutes played the 16-17 starters out-rebounded the 15-16 starters by 87 rebounds—about 10% more total rebounds. (By the way, while a player-to-play comparison is for another day, please note that Gabby collared 24 more ORebs. in 16-17 than Stewie in 15-16—almost 25% more ORebs. on the year. What makes this all the more remarkable is that Stewie really had no other competition from her starter teammates when it came to rebounds. Tuck was the next closest with 64 ORebs. Compare with Gabby’s starter teammate Collier, with 108 ORebs.—28 more than Stewie.)
Assists
As we know, the 16-17 team broke a number of NCAA team assist records. That is largely due to the starters. That said, the 15-16 starters are very close, with only 8 fewer assists on the season. This too is impressive given the 15-16 starters’ relatively fewer minutes played.
Turnovers
The 16-17 starters turned the ball over more, though that is partly because they played more minutes. Adjusting for that shows that the 15-16 starters actually turned the ball over more often (i.e., more TO per overall minute played).
Steals
Here, the 16-17 starters again exceeded the 15-16 starters. However, adjusting for minutes played gives the 16-17 starters only a 3 steal advantage.
Blocks
I expected 15-16 to dominate. And it did, for reasons that should be obvious. Adjusting for minutes played tilts the advantage even more in favor of the 15-16 starters’ superiority in this area. We should note, however, that the 15-16 starters had only one genuine shot blocker (Stewie). The 16-17 team had two—Collier (77) and Gabby (52). Once you get past Stewie, you get to Morgan, with a mere 10 blocks on the season (or three more than Saniya in 16-17).
PF
The 16-17 starters fouled a lot more than the 15-16 starters. Adjusting for minutes played, the 16-17 starters fouled about 34 more times than their 15-16 counterparts.
Conclusion
Based on these stats. (and their dubious manipulation), it is plausible (though refutable) to suggest that the 16-17 starters were:
· more durable (only Kia lost time to starting, and everyone else logged major minutes);
· better shooters (both FG% and 3PG%);
· much better at getting to the line, though less accurate once getting there;
· better offensive and defensive rebounders;
· about even in assists;
· better at protecting the ball;
· about even (with a very slight advantage) in taking the ball away;
· inferior in shot blocking, but with two proven blockers (as against one Godzilla); and
· fouled significantly more.
Let’s not forget the fact that the 16-17 team played numerous ranked opponents during the year, including several on the road. (Can someone determined how many ranked teams the 15-16 team played during that regular season).
I’d say this puts the 16-17 starters in pretty rarified air. Are they “better” than their 15-16 counterparts? Well, Kia and KLS 15-16 are certainly no better than Kia and KLS 16-17. In fact, while Kia has been a rock each year, KLS was demonstrably a superior player in 16-17. Collier was statistically significantly more effective than Tuck in just about every single offensive and defensive category. Stewie out-rebounded Gabby for their respective years, though Gabby had a significant ORebs. advantage, and had to compete with Collier for rebounds (whereas Stewie had no other starter teammate with whom to compete in that statistical category). Stewie averaged about 5 points/game more than Gabby. But Gabby had way more assists and steals. Stewie dominated in blocks. As for Moriah and Saniya . . . statistically, the two are relatively close in many categories, though Moriah averaged 4 points/game more (I would have thought more), and significantly more assists. Moriah is significantly better on defense, with a huge steal advantage—more twice as many steals per minute of play.
To be continued. . .
Answer: Of course not, because they did not lead the team to an undefeated season culminating in an NCAA Championship.
Putting that critical qualification aside, how do the 16-17 starting five rank among other starting five UConn WCBB teams over the past 20+years? I have yet to conduct anywhere near a complete investigation. And statistics can only tell us part of the story. (Re-read last sentence.) That said, a review of the numbers suggests that the 16-17 starters may well have put up as fine a year as any starting five in UConn history. Given the fact that the starters were comprised of 1 senior, 2 juniors, and 2 sophomores; given the departure the previous year of three All-American seniors; given the challenging schedule, lack of bench support, and relative lack of size . . . the 16-17 starters put up incredible numbers, both in absolute terms, and relative to other years. I hope to assemble stats that will assist in this query.
Let’s begin by looking back at how the 16-17 starters stack up, individually and as a group with the starters from the 2015-16 team. (This data is taken from stats.ncaa.org.) I have taken some liberties here, including (most notably) only including figures based on a 15-16 starting team consisting of the core four (Stewie, Morgan, Kia, Moriah) and KLS. We know that KLS did not begin starting regularly until about, what? 1/3 of the way into the season. As a result, these figures tend to under-represent the overall potency of the 15-16 starters because they omit contributions by other starters (chiefly, Collier and Williams) in games where KLS did not start. I candidly admit that a better comparison would address player-by-player contributions. That said, we can roughly assume that in games KLS did not start, she received playing time similar in amount to that of whoever started in her stead. (A quick and dirty review of about one-third of the games from early in the season bear this out.)
Finally, please bear in mind that I am not a statistician, and may have made some glaring logical error in generating the below. Please point out anything you believe compromises our efforts to arrive at "the truth".
Here are the individual and collective key stats for the 2016-17 starters:
And here are the figures for the 2015-16 starters:
Minutes
The 16-17 starters logged 429 total minutes playing time more than the 15-16 starters. This means that on the year the 16-17 starters played approximately 1.78 more games per starter than the 15-16 team starters—this despite the team playing one less game (38-0, vs. 36-1).
As we know the 16-17 starters’ higher overall minutes is largely because of the lack of team depth. Notwithstanding, the 16-17 starters had higher FG made and higher FG%. That is noteworthy since more minutes over the course of a season can result in greater overall fatigue as the season wears on. This is particularly the case when (as is almost always the case), the minutes are logged during a comparable or shorter timeframe.
FG
The 16-17 starters had more FG attempts, makes, and (significantly) a higher shooting percentage.
3PG
Likewise, the 16-17 starters had more 3PGA, shot made, and (again, significantly) a higher shooting percentage.
Free Throws
Here, the 15-16 team has a slight advantage as to percentage (about 1.3% higher). However, the 16-17 starters went to the line significantly more often that their 15-16 counterparts: more than 27% more trips to the line and makes. That is an impressive difference, resulting in 119 more points scored from the line by the 16-17 starters. While part of this may reflect more overall playing time, adjusting the numbers for playing time does not explain everything. The 15-16 starters played about 430 total minutes less (or 8% percent less playing time). Hence, even adjusting for this difference, the 15-16 starters would still have gone to the line about 120 times less during the year than the 16-17 starters. I welcome thoughts explaining this interesting disparity.
Points
This is a bit of a surprise. The 16-17 starters scored 344 more points than the 15-16 starters. Again, that is partially because of the difference in playing time. However, even adjusting for that the 16-17 starters would have scored 152 more points (or about .025 more points per minute play) than the 15-16 starters.
Rebounds
This is another surprise. The 16-17 starters significantly out-rebounded their 15-16 counterparts: 72 more ORebs., 85 more DRebs., and 157 more total rebounds. Again, adjusting for minutes still shows a decided 16-17 advantage in each category. Indeed, even adjusting for minutes played the 16-17 starters out-rebounded the 15-16 starters by 87 rebounds—about 10% more total rebounds. (By the way, while a player-to-play comparison is for another day, please note that Gabby collared 24 more ORebs. in 16-17 than Stewie in 15-16—almost 25% more ORebs. on the year. What makes this all the more remarkable is that Stewie really had no other competition from her starter teammates when it came to rebounds. Tuck was the next closest with 64 ORebs. Compare with Gabby’s starter teammate Collier, with 108 ORebs.—28 more than Stewie.)
Assists
As we know, the 16-17 team broke a number of NCAA team assist records. That is largely due to the starters. That said, the 15-16 starters are very close, with only 8 fewer assists on the season. This too is impressive given the 15-16 starters’ relatively fewer minutes played.
Turnovers
The 16-17 starters turned the ball over more, though that is partly because they played more minutes. Adjusting for that shows that the 15-16 starters actually turned the ball over more often (i.e., more TO per overall minute played).
Steals
Here, the 16-17 starters again exceeded the 15-16 starters. However, adjusting for minutes played gives the 16-17 starters only a 3 steal advantage.
Blocks
I expected 15-16 to dominate. And it did, for reasons that should be obvious. Adjusting for minutes played tilts the advantage even more in favor of the 15-16 starters’ superiority in this area. We should note, however, that the 15-16 starters had only one genuine shot blocker (Stewie). The 16-17 team had two—Collier (77) and Gabby (52). Once you get past Stewie, you get to Morgan, with a mere 10 blocks on the season (or three more than Saniya in 16-17).
PF
The 16-17 starters fouled a lot more than the 15-16 starters. Adjusting for minutes played, the 16-17 starters fouled about 34 more times than their 15-16 counterparts.
Conclusion
Based on these stats. (and their dubious manipulation), it is plausible (though refutable) to suggest that the 16-17 starters were:
· more durable (only Kia lost time to starting, and everyone else logged major minutes);
· better shooters (both FG% and 3PG%);
· much better at getting to the line, though less accurate once getting there;
· better offensive and defensive rebounders;
· about even in assists;
· better at protecting the ball;
· about even (with a very slight advantage) in taking the ball away;
· inferior in shot blocking, but with two proven blockers (as against one Godzilla); and
· fouled significantly more.
Let’s not forget the fact that the 16-17 team played numerous ranked opponents during the year, including several on the road. (Can someone determined how many ranked teams the 15-16 team played during that regular season).
I’d say this puts the 16-17 starters in pretty rarified air. Are they “better” than their 15-16 counterparts? Well, Kia and KLS 15-16 are certainly no better than Kia and KLS 16-17. In fact, while Kia has been a rock each year, KLS was demonstrably a superior player in 16-17. Collier was statistically significantly more effective than Tuck in just about every single offensive and defensive category. Stewie out-rebounded Gabby for their respective years, though Gabby had a significant ORebs. advantage, and had to compete with Collier for rebounds (whereas Stewie had no other starter teammate with whom to compete in that statistical category). Stewie averaged about 5 points/game more than Gabby. But Gabby had way more assists and steals. Stewie dominated in blocks. As for Moriah and Saniya . . . statistically, the two are relatively close in many categories, though Moriah averaged 4 points/game more (I would have thought more), and significantly more assists. Moriah is significantly better on defense, with a huge steal advantage—more twice as many steals per minute of play.
To be continued. . .
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