$1 BILLION for the perfect bracket

[UChusky916]

http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-billion-dollar-bracket-2014-1

 

[OkaForPrez]

This could be fuzzy math, but if you assume you have a 50% chance of guessing each game correctly (I know its better than that for certain seed matchups in the early rounds) then you are 52 billion more times likely to win powerball on 1 ticket than pick your bracket perfectly.

 

[CAHUSKY]

I think Buffet's $1b is safe:

• Odds of someone randomly predicting a perfect bracket: 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808

• Odds of someone predicting a perfect bracket if he or she knew basketball: 1-in-128 Billion

 

[Strummer]

• Odds of someone predicting a perfect bracket if he or she knew basketball: 1-in-128 Billion

Sure, but if 100,000 people fill out a bracket, then it's more like 1 in a million he has to pay out.
You throw in that it's not a 50/50 guess for most of the games, and he's probably closer to 1 in 500,000 that he pays out. Still a great marketing ploy, but not nearly as infinitesimally small as it would seem.

The prize will be paid out in 40 annual installments of $25 million. The winner or winners can also take or split up an immediate $500 million lump sum payment

25 million in 40 annual installments? No thanks! At the current rate of devaluation of the dollar, it'll be a million for a loaf of bread in 40 years.

 

[CAHUSKY]

Sure, but if 100,000 people fill out a bracket, then it's more like 1 in a million he has to pay out.

If the odds are 1 - 128,000,000,000 that any individual would select a perfect bracket and 100,000 fill it out the odds become 1 -1,000,000? I'm no mathematician but i know that's not correct.

 

[Tenspro2002]

The more relevant aspect of this promotion is that even if nobody gets it perfectly, the top 20 finishers each get 100 grand toward a house or house-related items. That's nothing to sneeze it, and is moderately attainable.

Oh, by the way, just for S's and G's, let's say the odds are somewhere between the random odds of ~10^19 to 1 and CAHUSKY's optimistic odds of ~10^11 to 1. Let's use 10^13 to 1.

If everyone on Earth filled out a unique bracket, every year, for the next 1000 years, there is a 50% chance that one person will get their bracket exactly right.

 

[Tenspro2002]

If the odds are 1 - 128,000,000,000 that any individual would select a perfect bracket and 100,000 fill it out the odds become 1 -1,000,000? I'm no mathematician but i know that's not correct.

That's not true strictly speaking in general, but since we're working with such infinitesimal percentages, it's basically true in this case.

 

[Robertelamin]

Oh great, now Vicki in Accounts Receivables is going to be a Billion dollars richer than me.

 

[partial]

If the odds are 1 - 128,000,000,000 that any individual would select a perfect bracket and 100,000 fill it out the odds become 1 -1,000,000? I'm no mathematician but i know that's not correct.

It's more complicated because it's likely that there wouldn't be 100000 unique submissions, in fact i'd wager that the vast majority would just encompass (comparatively)few of the possible outcomes. In any case one in a million is still astronomically good odds that it doesn't happen.

 

[metsfan2323]

In theory someone could fix all of these games and make a massive fortune. In practice however it can't be done, too big of a conspiracy.

but if someone from organized crime wins this thing....

This will be great for the sport, I think.