1/3: 12th in NET

[BFieldHusky]

NET: 12
KenPom: 13
ESPN BPI: 11

 

[REB1094]

Kenpom #2 offense and #94 defense lmao

Colorado is firmly a Q2 loss, we're sitting at a 3-2 Q1 record and 3-1 Q2 (6-3 total). Some other notable Q1+Q2 records in the high end of NET:

• #6 Houston 1-3 (0-3 in Q1, 1-0 in Q2)
• #8 Gonzaga 4-4 (2-4 in Q1, 2-0 in Q2)
• #11 Michigan 4-3 (1-2 in Q1, 3-1 in Q2)
• Arizona is somehow #22, but 0-5 in Q1 and 1-0 in Q2

 

[Hunt for 7]

These are the metrics the committee pays the most attention too. So after how we started, I am fine being the number 3 or 4, 3 seed. Although I do think this team healthy from an eye test standpoint looks to be a top 8 team if they are healthy.

Not sure we will know until we play Marquette and maybe St Johns or Creighton. But something is up with Creighton this year. Starts with Kalkbrenner he has always seemed to have an indifferent look on his face, this year he has really had some bad games especially with all the minutes he gets but he is still a lock for BEDPOY but right now he is not the BEPOY.

 

[uh-no]

Our record and top-line metrics look really good, and are deserved due to play....but we really really need to start bringing that defense up, or else we will take some bad losses. We've already had all 3 BE games that ended up closer late than they should have.

I'm probably over-harping on it, but that number scares the s*** out of me.

Coming out of the closet: I'm a duke alum, and having seen several of their teams in the early teens end up getting lit up due to bad defense in the tournament is traumatic (2012, 79 defense, 1st round loss to 15 seed lehigh, 2014, 86 defense, 1st round loss to 14 seed mercer, 2016, 86 defense, 3rd round loss, 2017, 47 defense, second round loss to 7 seed south carolina)....IMO this is the trajectory we're on right now.

 

[HooperScooper]

Kenpom #2 offense and #94 defense lmao

I'm curious, say they tighten up the defense and are top 10 the rest of the way. Where would the defense for the year rank? Because the bad start wouldn't mean much if they're playing top 10 defense for 2 1/2 months going into the NCAA Tournament. But everyone would be quoting the overall season rank.

Last year without Clingan they were around #50 (I think) but with Clingan in there they were really high (like top 3?) so that overall they were #4 by the end of the year.

 

[REB1094]

I'm curious, say they tighten up the defense and are top 10 the rest of the way. Where would the defense for the year rank? Because the bad start wouldn't mean much if they're playing top 10 defense for 2 1/2 months going into the NCAA Tournament but everyone would be quoting the overall season rank.

Last year without Clingan they were around #50 (I think) but with Clingan in there they were really high (like top 3?) so that overall they were #4 by the end of the year.

I have no idea how the magic kenpom numbers work, but I assume if we start stringing together high quality defensive performances (and more importantly better than projected defensive performances), the ranking would shoot up like it did last year

I believe we were 99th before the DePaul game, so even a good game against a bad team can help

 

[Peacefrog]

"We've already had all 3 BE games that ended up closer late than they should have."

I'm not sure this is true depending on what metric you are looking at. We covered the betting spread against DePaul but I'm not sure how we performed versus expected in regards to NET.

"getting lit up due to bad defense in the tournament"

The converse can also be true and we experienced that a couple times a handful of years ago where we had very good defense but middling offense and were unable to get out of the first round. I suspect our defensive metrics will improve as the season goes on but I'm not sure it will get to the point where we will "bullet-proof" as coach likes to say.

 

[ctbro1999]

"We've already had all 3 BE games that ended up closer late than they should have."

I'm not sure this is true depending on what metric you are looking at. We covered the betting spread against DePaul but I'm not sure how we performed versus expected in regards to NET.

"getting lit up due to bad defense in the tournament"

The converse can also be true and we experienced that a couple times a handful of years ago where we had very good defense but middling offense and were unable to get out of the first round. I suspect our defensive metrics will improve as the season goes on but I'm not sure it will get to the point where we will "bullet-proof" as coach likes to say.

According to Torvik, we had the 3rd best defense (and #1 offense) from when Clingan came back from his foot injury on ~Jan 17th (and Castle was also fully healthy) to the end of the season. Prior to that, I think we only played the first 2 games last season with a full roster before Castle went down (and Clingan was still getting back into game shape).

 

[NIT88]

How is our defense still stuck in the 90’s on both Ken Pom and Torvik? I get that our D was abysmal in Maui, but I think it has been improving. I always check after a win and the rating does not move up ir down at all. Does anyone know about what may be causing us to be “stuck” on D in the metrics?

I was going to start a separate thread on this, but I think this is a good place to discuss.

 

[uh-no]

How is our defense still stuck in the 90’s on both Ken Pom and Torvik? I get that our D was abysmal in Maui, but I think it has been improving. I always check after a win and the rating does not move up ir down at all. Does anyone know about what may be causing us to be “stuck” on D in the metrics?

I was going to start a separate thread on this, but I think this is a good place to discuss.

our D was decent in the remaining OOC games, but has been abysmal again in the BE. Torvik has it as 114 in the coutry only counting conference games. It was dominant in the first half vs depaul, and then atrocious in the second half.

Too much inconsistency. Too many fouls.

 

[auror]

How is our defense still stuck in the 90’s on both Ken Pom and Torvik? I get that our D was abysmal in Maui, but I think it has been improving. I always check after a win and the rating does not move up ir down at all. Does anyone know about what may be causing us to be “stuck” on D in the metrics?

I was going to start a separate thread on this, but I think this is a good place to discuss.

4 of our last 5 have been decent, but the Xavier game was a pretty big hit in the opposite direction again. And the offenses we've played in those games haven't been the globetrotters (other than Gonzaga.)

If you filter Torvik to after the Baylor game, we're 56th best. Which seems about right.

Truth is, we still haven't really locked anyone down. We're not a complete D. Mahaney and Ball get driven. Samson can defend the rim but not rebound. Reed can rebound but not really defend the rim (oppt take 46% of their shots at the rim with him in the game). Guys off ball lose focus.

 

[Hurleyman216]

4 of our last 5 have been decent, but the Xavier game was a pretty big hit in the opposite direction again. And the offenses we've played in those games haven't been the globetrotters (other than Gonzaga.)

If you filter Torvik to after the Baylor game, we're 56th best. Which seems about right.

Truth is, we still haven't really locked anyone down. We're not a complete D. Mahaney and Ball get driven. Samson can defend the rim but not rebound. Reed can rebound but not really defend the rim (oppt take 46% of their shots at the rim with him in the game). Guys off ball lose focus.

I’m generally curious what our defensive rating would be if the fouls weren’t as lopsided as they have been. Is there a way to back calculate what our rating would be if free throws/fouls were equal to our opponent? It’s not 100% on the officiating, our defense in Maui was bad, but the numbers are worse than the eye test. Xavier was another outlier where that scrub was chucking in 3’s with guys in his face all game. If I had to venture a guess, without such a large gap in free throw disparity our defense would probably be top 50. We literally spot our opponent 10, 15 and sometimes 20 points per game at the line…it’s the equivalent of starting a game down 15-0.