Recent content by pepband99

Indeed. The undisputed master of thread derailing, usually with something that's borderline understandable, should know. All hail the troll king.

Michigan is off the board. Also - for fun - KenPom tracks chances of a winless record. BCU is picked to lose every remaining game in the ACC, with a 1.8% chance of doing the donut.

An update - I included dook as i didn't include them earlier (because their projected loss is to Michigan, so OOC), so we're up to 9! Really an amazingly top-heavy conference metrics year, so far. Michigan (B10) 4.6% <-- big drop here with their Penn St game. @nelsonmuntz will be confused by...

Ironically, Texas' game against us (an 8 point loss on the road) is one of the data points holding them up the most. But you keep harping on about wins and losses. The SEC's kenpom ranking isn't even that out of line to past #1s, so i also don't know what you're looking at there.

2 different measures. It means on strict W/L basis, KenPom has a W. The % chance is indeed more meaningful, as it accounts for close margins and variability. But it’s still noteworthy that 8 teams, at this point in season, even have a >0 chance. I would expect a number of 4 or less, at this...

An unbelievable metric i found this morning. As of today, there are 8 conferences where the best team is currently predicted to run the table in Kenpom (with % chance): Michigan (B10) 7.7% Arizona (B12) 2% Gonzaga (WCC) 28.2% (!) Vanderbilt (SEC) 0.8% <-- this one shocked me UConn (BE) 3.2%...

Yes, but not as much as it should, because the RPI treats winning in Tallahassee as hard as winning in Phog Allen or Conte or Tulane.

Lookie loo, my Duke example came true already, albeit not that drastically. A close road win against FSU dropped their Kenpom ranking. RPI would have given them a bonus for playing in front of friends and family in Tallahassee.

Hahahahahahahaha - pot/kettle. You're actually serious?

Mock this. Everything you posted is wrong. Stay with your precious RPI, which had only one goal (ironically not rewarding weak schedules, and thus, blowouts), and didn't end up doing it very well.

No, you’re just pointing out that you still don’t understand how these metrics work. To help you, try flipping your argument around. If, say, Duke, beat CCSU by 2 in Cameron, you wouldn’t find that result compelling? You don’t think it reflects on either teams resume? Your precious RPI would...

The amount of people who just can't get KenPom in this thread is amazing. First off - the ratings for conferences throw out ~1/2 of the conference, in all likelihood, since they only rate teams expected to finish .500 or better in conference. Looking at W/L is also just wrong for KenPom, so...

Err - no it isn't. The header on the conference ranking is quite clear: "Ranking of conferences by NetRtg of team expected to go .500 in conference play" NetRtg is overall efficiency - aka the KenPom ranking.

Err ok. So I took it originally that it was everyone that was projected to go under 500 was eliminated. And it’s actually for 500 against a round robin. So the big east is the least skewed. The bigger conferences more so. But it’s still very very close.

It’s literally in the header above the ranking.