Yeah, so... don't read FTT if you're in a bad mood

[junglehusky]

He seems to think UConn is really, really screwed because we joined FBS after 1998.

I agree we are still perceived as football non-entities. Pasqualoni isn't helping too much. But gosh, that's arbitrary to say the cut-off date for relevance is 1998 and before. It's like people were saying history was going to end after the Berlin Wall fell, or after the internet or the millenium. Guess what, history actually ended in 1998. (They year I graduated from UConn, no less). I guess Lew Perkins knew the door was closing, and when the legislature couldn't close a deal without the Patriots in hartford he knew the jig was up. I guess we can all go wander into the woods and let the wolves eat our carcasses now, because there's nothing left to do (nelsonmuntz is already there).

/sarcasm

 

[BlueHen]

I think FTT knows a lot about CFB, especially Midwestern CFB. But predicting CR is like predicting the weather, no matter how much information you have it comes down to an educated guess which can often be wrong.

 

[TRest]

Fowler's tweets at least give me hope the Div 4 will include the AAC. Still a minor league we have to escape, however.


Jeremy Fowler ‏@JFowlerCBS 17m
Faculty Reps sent proposal to NCAA on governance: FBS as one subdivision w/ own board of directors (at least one prez/chancellor per conf)


Jeremy Fowler ‏@JFowlerCBS 15m
FARs also proposing an FBS Management Council composed of one AD and one Fac Rep per conf, along with possibly Sr. Womens Admins, Commishes


Jeremy Fowler ‏@JFowlerCBS 14m
Votes for board of directors could be weighted for 5 power conferences and "perhaps the AAC" as succession to former BCS-qualifier Big East

 

[upstater]

As for me, I can't figure any of this out. Emmert is the guy who hired Les Miles at LSU and also was instrumental in covering up a rape by a football player at Washington.

So who exactly do the Presidents of the Power 5 not like at the NCAA?

Cedric Dempsey went to work for the Pump Brothers, for heaven's sake!!!!

So, the Presidents of the P5 want to go their own way because the guy who covered up rapes AND hired Les Miles is too much of a goody-two-shoes? Who are they going to hire to head D4, Attila the Hun?

 

[huskymedic]

I think FTT knows a lot about CFB, especially Midwestern CFB. But predicting CR is like predicting the weather, no matter how much information you have it comes down to an educated guess which can often be wrong.

It's all about the clicks...

Frank the Tank (@frankthetank111)
9/11/13, 10:03 PM
Mailbag topics: Division 4, hopes for Cincinnati and UConn to move up, and Oklahoma and Kansas B1G expansion chances Post original url/181Xoln

 

[TRest]

As for me, I can't figure any of this out. Emmert is the guy who hired Les Miles at LSU and also was instrumental in covering up a rape by a football player at Washington.

So who exactly do the Presidents of the Power 5 not like at the NCAA?

Cedric Dempsey went to work for the Pump Brothers, for heaven's sake!!!!

So, the Presidents of the P5 want to go their own way because the guy who covered up rapes AND hired Les Miles is too much of a goody-two-shoes? Who are they going to hire to head D4, Attila the Hun?

They just want to jettison the Division 1 schools that keep voting down unlimited football schollies and athlete stipends. the Ohio State University football program doesn't need the AD at Holy Cross preventing it from doing whatever the hell it wants.

 

[woomba]

He seems to think UConn is really, really screwed because we joined FBS after 1998.

I agree we are still perceived as football non-entities. Pasqualoni isn't helping too much. But gosh, that's arbitrary to say the cut-off date for relevance is 1998 and before. It's like people were saying history was going to end after the Berlin Wall fell, or after the internet or the millenium. Guess what, history actually ended in 1998. (They year I graduated from UConn, no less). I guess Lew Perkins knew the door was closing, and when the legislature couldn't close a deal without the Patriots in hartford he knew the jig was up. I guess we can all go wander into the woods and let the wolves eat our carcasses now, because there's nothing left to do (nelsonmuntz is already there).

/sarcasm

I don't think he wrote what you say he wrote. The only thing he noted is that the current P5 member makeup hasn't changed all that much from back when the BCS system was first created.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Is prediction is very reasonable. I don't think it will happen quite that way, but it is reasonable. I think the P5 know that if they break away, and anyone is paying attention to what's left, they are screwed. I also think they don't want to mess up a college basketball system that seems to work well for everyone.

 

[Adios]

Worst case scenario being the ACC is still not too bad.

 

[Hoophound]

I don't know how one could argue the AAC would be in but the MWC would be out. I still think an East/West merger of the AAC and select MWC schools is on the table. I suspect it will resurface when more money is available. I wouldn't be surprised if that is already understood by people on both sides.

 

[junglehusky]

Worst case scenario being the ACC is still not too bad.

Worst case scenario, we don't get in the ACC at all and the AAC is left to play the Sun Belt, MAC and FCS. The power five, or at least the B1G, is already cutting down the games they play against FCS. Next up is shutting out the AAC and MAC.

 

[upstater]

Worst case scenario, we don't get in the ACC at all and the AAC is left to play the Sun Belt, MAC and FCS. The power five, or at least the B1G, is already cutting down the games they play against FCS. Next up is shutting out the AAC and MAC.

I can't fathom how they'll manage this scenario with a lot of schools having small budgets compared to some of the AAC and MW schools. Will be hard to fathom.

 

[Sea Goat]

He seems to think UConn is really, really screwed because we joined FBS after 1998.

I agree we are still perceived as football non-entities. Pasqualoni isn't helping too much. But gosh, that's arbitrary to say the cut-off date for relevance is 1998 and before. It's like people were saying history was going to end after the Berlin Wall fell, or after the internet or the millenium. Guess what, history actually ended in 1998. (They year I graduated from UConn, no less). I guess Lew Perkins knew the door was closing, and when the legislature couldn't close a deal without the Patriots in hartford he knew the jig was up. I guess we can all go wander into the woods and let the wolves eat our carcasses now, because there's nothing left to do (nelsonmuntz is already there).

/sarcasm

1998 is an arbitrary date. It may be connected by coincidence to other facts and circumstances, but doesn't indicate the future. Unless he has more concrete info, FTT is labeling facts as indicative of an outcome with no evidence that is the case. Maybe he listens to Tim McCarver on Baseball's game of the week too often. If Rutgers found a home in a P-5 conference with a 47 - 93- 1 record since joining the BE in 1991 then there is a home for us. If you have a really solid growing program - do you think some P-5 commish is going say we have to take the Rutgers of the world solely because of its D-1 status before 1998? (Of course, now we need "a really solid growing program".)

 

[IMind]

The D4 thing will never happen. The leagal battles and political entanglements will be a nightmare. I think it's all just smoke. They're much more likely to continue to just have the non P5 schools wither on the vine. They'd be much smarter if they did that. Just price the little guys out of the game.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Seems perfectly reasonable to me and not hostile to UConn in any respect. I think he's right that either the whole FBS breaks free so they can change the rules of the NCAA, or just the top 5 conferences do. Where I disagree is on the question of whether expansion is needed for the top 5 to break free, as I think it is. I think we'd need at least 16 teams in all 5 leagues to have enough pull to break loose of the NCAA. There is safety in numbers. So the concept of all FBS schools coming along is more plausible in my book.

He correctly asserts that Cincy makes the most sense to the B12, and UConn to the ACC. In fact, had the ACC taken UConn, I think the B12 would have expanded already to take Cincy and Louisville. I think he's right on the B1G too, I suspect they haven't totally abandoned the idea of Virgina, but it is probably pretty far in the rear view mirror. UNC is going nowhere, and without them, UVA isn't worth it. So the only real logical expansion to more rapidly growing areas is straight south from Nebraska. However small KS and OK are, they are growing. But the GOR has that stopped for now too. Hence our current pause until the B12 gets's off its collective butt and does something.

 

[upstater]

The D4 thing will never happen. The leagal battles and political entanglements will be a nightmare. I think it's all just smoke. They're much more likely to continue to just have the non P5 schools wither on the vine. They'd be much smarter if they did that. Just price the little guys out of the game.

This is why I posted my question about Emmert. Are these presidents really disappointed in Emmert? How can that possibly be? This guy is the biggest shill ever. Now, Myles Brand may indeed have been a stickler for a more balanced relationship between academics and athletics, but Emmert? Come on!

 

[DarthGrumpy]

So the only real logical expansion to more rapidly growing areas is straight south from Nebraska. However small KS and OK are, they are growing. But the GOR has that stopped for now too. Hence our current pause until the B12 gets's off its collective butt and does something.

B1G will not go after Kansas and Oklahoma because of growth, Kansas is below the national average and Oklahoma has been below historically and is now at national average.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_population_growth_rate

The B1G will go after Oklahoma and Kansas for 5 reasons: 1) failed to get the ACC schools it wanted (UVA, UNC, etc.), thus this provides the B1G with 2) new TV markets (Kansas City & Oklahoma City), 2) name brand in basketball (Kansas) and football (Oklahoma), 3) closer access to football recruiting grounds in the south, and 4) a lure to get U Texas.

 

[HuskyHawk]

B1G will not go after Kansas and Oklahoma because of growth, Kansas is below the national average and Oklahoma has been below historically and is now at national average.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_population_growth_rate

The B1G will go after Oklahoma and Kansas for 5 reasons: 1) failed to get the ACC schools it wanted (UVA, UNC, etc.), thus this provides the B1G with 2) new TV markets (Kansas City & Oklahoma City), 2) name brand in basketball (Kansas) and football (Oklahoma), 3) closer access to football recruiting grounds in the south, and 4) a lure to get U Texas.

Those are definitely major positives, but the growth numbers at Wiki are old and out of date as well. http://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/population/cb13-46.html

That said, Raleigh and Charlotte are in the top 10 fastest growing (per Forbes), and in the slowest you have Cleveland, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, St. Louis (part of U Ill market) Chicago and NY. 6 of the top ten slowest growing cities are in B1G markets, even if Chicago and NY are still clearly huge in any event. So it was obvious why the B1G really, really wanted UNC. Texas has similar stats to NC, and yes, going south from Nebraska heads straight for Texas.

 

[Mr. Wonderful]

Frank the Tank is an even keeled and reasonably informed poster, but it's important to point out that touting the status quot does not make one any more tuned in to what will happen in the future than constantly claiming change is imminent. The truth eludes us all, although it will make itself known by all in time.

 

[upstater]

Frank the Tank is an even keeled and reasonably informed poster, but it's important to point out that touting the status quot does not make one any more tuned in to what will happen in the future than constantly claiming change is imminent. The truth eludes us all, although it will make itself known by all in time.

You can be objective and still have blind spots. His biggest counter against UConn is constant, "Then why hasn't anyone added the school?" In his eyes, UConn is bad by virtue of the fact that it has been excluded. You can point out revenues and other stats, other metrics, and when he's cornered he'll say, "If that were true, they'd be in a conference."

Oh, but it is true. "Then why aren't they in a conference????"

 

[Mr. Wonderful]

You can be objective and still have blind spots. His biggest counter against UConn is constant, "Then why hasn't anyone added the school?" In his eyes, UConn is bad by virtue of the fact that it has been excluded. You can point out revenues and other stats, other metrics, and when he's cornered he'll say, "If that were true, they'd be in a conference."

Oh, but it is true. "Then why aren't they in a conference????"

Yes, you describe a well known logical fallacy he is guilty of. Invoking the status quo is not proof of anything.

 

[SouthronCross]

Seems perfectly reasonable to me and not hostile to UConn in any respect. I think he's right that either the whole FBS breaks free so they can change the rules of the NCAA, or just the top 5 conferences do. Where I disagree is on the question of whether expansion is needed for the top 5 to break free, as I think it is. I think we'd need at least 16 teams in all 5 leagues to have enough pull to break loose of the NCAA. There is safety in numbers. So the concept of all FBS schools coming along is more plausible in my book.

Not to mention, how much easier scheduling for the conferences would be with 16 teams. The ACC and SEC already have 14 teams, and, the B1G will have in 2014. Thats an awkward set up, unless you go with either a N-S (ACC), or, E-W (B1G), divisional split, like the SEC already uses. The B1G will go E-W next year, with no issues. For the ACC to go N-S, it'd require placing both UVA and VPI in the North, which both are dead set against, and, also placing Miami there, too, as thats where the majority of their students, fans, and, alumni reside. Yeah, it'd be the best alignment, but, theres too much crying over it at this point for it to work. Going to 16 makes UConn a no-brainer for the ACC. Hoops and Olympic sports would be a major coup for a possible future ACCN.

He correctly asserts that Cincy makes the most sense to the B12, and UConn to the ACC. In fact, had the ACC taken UConn, I think the B12 would have expanded already to take Cincy and Louisville. I think he's right on the B1G too, I suspect they haven't totally abandoned the idea of Virgina, but it is probably pretty far in the rear view mirror. UNC is going nowhere, and without them, UVA isn't worth it.

The NC-VA schools are a pretty tight group, and, I cannot see either UNC or UVA leaving them. Plus, the UNC BOGs will not allow UNC and NCSU to be separated, at least not at this point. Plus, from my own experiences, the vast majority of the UNC fanbase would revolt at the idea of jumping to the B1G, rather than the SEC.

So the only real logical expansion to more rapidly growing areas is straight south from Nebraska. However small KS and OK are, they are growing. But the GOR has that stopped for now too. Hence our current pause until the B12 gets's off its collective butt and does something.

Agreed. Cincy and BYU would both be good picks for them. If they wanted back into the Denver market, Colorado State could be a longshot selection. Or, UCF, if they wanted into Florida. USF is sinking since Jim Leavitt left.

 

[SouthronCross]

Those are definitely major positives, but the growth numbers at Wiki are old and out of date as well. http://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/population/cb13-46.html

That said, Raleigh and Charlotte are in the top 10 fastest growing (per Forbes) , and in the slowest you have Cleveland, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, St. Louis (part of U Ill market) Chicago and NY. 6 of the top ten slowest growing cities are in B1G markets, even if Chicago and NY are still clearly huge in any event. So it was obvious why the B1G really, really wanted UNC. Texas has similar stats to NC, and yes, going south from Nebraska heads straight for Texas.

Thats also why the SEC wanted UNC as well.

Also, SEC commissioner Mike Slive knows that if Delany got UNC, the SEC would get NCSU, and, the B1G/BTN would win the state by a landslide. He cannot allow that.