Will the NBE raid the ACC?

[pj]

As the last available property on the media market, the NBE is the last leverage point for schools to improve their revenue. So there will be a lot of thinking, not just at NBE schools, about what to do over the next year.

With optimistic chatter that the NBE TV contract may match or exceed the ACC's revenue, I wonder if we could see a reversal in the direction of team movement.

Suppose the ACC gets raided for, say, Florida State and Va Tech. The ACC's revenue will diminish. Now the NBE revenue will be clearly larger than the ACC's. There would be no reason for UConn or Rutgers or Louisville to leave the NBE for the ACC, which will be weaker than the NBE on the football field and in money. Instead, the ACC teams would have an incentive to leave the ACC, get out from under their lousy contract. They would try to go to the SEC, Big12, B1G, or NBE -- all four would give them more money.

If that played out, we might see a dissolution of the ACC, with the more valuable teams going to the conferences until the eastern conferences reached 16, and weaker programs like BC, Syracuse, and Wake Forest getting stranded.

I'm not predicting this, only raising it as a possibility.

 

[Dann]

the nbe will raid the acc for miami/wake/duke/bc/cuse once all the big public in the acc and nbe go else where. they can have there bball league of idiots with a flag football league for fun. its flag football because maimi isn't allowed play real football at this point.

 

[HuskyHawk]

UConn and Rutgers have enourmous incentives to leave the NBE for the ACC regardless of the revenue. It would mean being in a conference with outstanding public and private universities, like UVA, UNC, Duke, WF, BC and GT. Most critically, it would avoid the horrible fate of being in a conference with some of the country's worst D1 football playing universities, like Boise, Memphis and Houston. It would provide geographic harmony and resume our traditional local rivalries. The remainder of the NBE, minus UConn and RU, is Conference USA, plus Boise and SDSU. It would be the #1 basketball conference by a wide margin. It would dominate the most populated coast in the country.

 

[observer]

As the last available property on the media market, the NBE is the last leverage point for schools to improve their revenue. So there will be a lot of thinking, not just at NBE schools, about what to do over the next year.

With optimistic chatter that the NBE TV contract may match or exceed the ACC's revenue, I wonder if we could see a reversal in the direction of team movement.

Suppose the ACC gets raided for, say, Florida State and Va Tech. The ACC's revenue will diminish. Now the NBE revenue will be clearly larger than the ACC's. There would be no reason for UConn or Rutgers or Louisville to leave the NBE for the ACC, which will be weaker than the NBE on the football field and in money. Instead, the ACC teams would have an incentive to leave the ACC, get out from under their lousy contract. They would try to go to the SEC, Big12, B1G, or NBE -- all four would give them more money.

If that played out, we might see a dissolution of the ACC, with the more valuable teams going to the conferences until the eastern conferences reached 16, and weaker programs like BC, Syracuse, and Wake Forest getting stranded.

I'm not predicting this, only raising it as a possibility.

The NBE to raid the ACC!!!!!

I spit out my coffee when I read that.

If anyone believes that please, please send me some, actually a lot, of what you are smoking.

 

[CL82]

UConn and Rutgers have enourmous incentives to leave the NBE for the ACC regardless of the revenue. It would mean being in a conference with outstanding public and private universities, like UVA, UNC, Duke, WF, BC and GT. Most critically, it would avoid the horrible fate of being in a conference with some of the country's worst D1 football playing universities, like Boise, Memphis and Houston. It would provide geographic harmony and resume our traditional local rivalries. The remainder of the NBE, minus UConn and RU, is Conference USA, plus Boise and SDSU. It would be the #1 basketball conference by a wide margin. It would dominate the most populated coast in the country.

I know right? The ACC has some of the finest pretend courses in the country! And who wouldn't look forward every fall to watching the annual Duke BC uh, um, I don't know ...do they still call it football when those two play each other?

 

[CL82]

The NBE to raid the ACC!!!!!

I spit out my coffee when I read that.

If anyone believes that please, please send me some, actually a lot, of what you are smoking.

Wow. First he's whining about how unappreciated he is and now he's begging for drugs.
What a sad, slow spiral of decline.

 

[TRest]

UConn and Rutgers have enourmous incentives to leave the NBE for the ACC regardless of the revenue. It would mean being in a conference with outstanding public and private universities, like UVA, UNC, Duke, WF, BC and GT. Most critically, it would avoid the horrible fate of being in a conference with some of the country's worst D1 football playing universities, like Boise, Memphis and Houston. It would provide geographic harmony and resume our traditional local rivalries. The remainder of the NBE, minus UConn and RU, is Conference USA, plus Boise and SDSU. It would be the #1 basketball conference by a wide margin. It would dominate the most populated coast in the country.

I agree. People refuse to get this, but they will figure it out when we are drawing 25k for games against Memphis and SMU.

 

[UConnJim]

The NBE to raid the ACC!!!!!

I spit out my coffee when I read that.

If anyone believes that please, please send me some, actually a lot, of what you are smoking.

If enough teams leave the ACC for other conferences, it could happen. Remember when the BE and potential Big 12 left behinds (Missouri, Kansas, K St, Iowa St, and Baylor) talked? Who would have thought that could happen?

The ACC leadership screwed up by signing away their media rights for the long term which, in hindsight, was a very bad decision. I really don't see how FSU can afford to stay in the ACC. If the Big 1G or SEC knocked on some ACC schools, I don't see how they could stay in the ACC.

The Big East as a conference has struggled by putting basketball first and the ACC will also pay the price for doing the same.

 

[UConnDan97]

As the last available property on the media market, the NBE is the last leverage point for schools to improve their revenue. So there will be a lot of thinking, not just at NBE schools, about what to do over the next year.

With optimistic chatter that the NBE TV contract may match or exceed the ACC's revenue, I wonder if we could see a reversal in the direction of team movement.

Suppose the ACC gets raided for, say, Florida State and Va Tech. The ACC's revenue will diminish. Now the NBE revenue will be clearly larger than the ACC's. There would be no reason for UConn or Rutgers or Louisville to leave the NBE for the ACC, which will be weaker than the NBE on the football field and in money. Instead, the ACC teams would have an incentive to leave the ACC, get out from under their lousy contract. They would try to go to the SEC, Big12, B1G, or NBE -- all four would give them more money.

If that played out, we might see a dissolution of the ACC, with the more valuable teams going to the conferences until the eastern conferences reached 16, and weaker programs like BC, Syracuse, and Wake Forest getting stranded.

I'm not predicting this, only raising it as a possibility.

I had a similar thought to possibilities of the NBE raiding the ACC, but there are a lot of "ifs" tied to that happening. Here are the "ifs," in my opinion:

1) IF the NBE gets as good a tv contract that puts them on even footing with the ACC.

2) IF someone is smart enough on both sides of the tv deal to allow for higher per team values if new teams are added to the league.

3) IF the ACC gets raided for a big team(s) by the other four conferences first.

Of all of the aforementioned "ifs" that need to happen, #3 is the most important for the NBE to raid the ACC. TV contracts can always be amended, I'm sure, and I do believe that we will obtain a tv contract that is at least approaching the ACC deal. What the NBE would then need is that FSU / Clemson stuff to happen to the Big12, the VaTech / NCState stuff to happen to the SEC, or both. Then I think the pendulum finally swings back to the NBE.

It's not that crazy a thought, though...

 

[metsfan2323]

I agree. People refuse to get this, but they will figure it out when we are drawing 25k for games against Memphis and SMU.

There is no evidence that we will struggle for fans for these games. SMU fields a better football team right now then Syracuse and they have done that recruiting from CUSA. They are only going to get better in the Big East. SMU clobbered Pitt and beat TCU last year.

Memphis may be the quality of a MAC team initially but we have fielded 35,000 crowds for MAC games in the past.

 

[Pudge]

There is no evidence that we will struggle for fans for these games. SMU fields a better football team right now then Syracuse and they have done that recruiting from CUSA. They are only going to get better in the Big East. SMU clobbered Pitt and beat TCU last year.

Memphis may be the quality of a MAC team initially but we have fielded 35,000 crowds for MAC games in the past.

I get the MOANING & the WHINING ...

But ... maybe you should consider this ... Syracuse is going to have trouble getting 30,000 for Wake. They are going to enter a period of not having the buzz for visiting basketball (Clemson & VA Tech ... versus Georgetown or Villanova?). We have shifted the earth here. Our regional rivalry ... in fact - lots of regional rivalries ... are gone. I don't know if Humpty Dumpty gets put back together.

I simply do NOT believe that UConn football will not draw 40,000 against Temple or SMU. I would love to say we will go to 50,000. I hesitate because I think we have done a sucky job of converting strong interest into an aggressively building fanbase. Blame Hathaway still.

 

[UConnJim]

I agree. People refuse to get this, but they will figure it out when we are drawing 25k for games against Memphis and SMU.

I think you are wrong. Look at UConn's home schedules over the past 9 years (since the move to The Rent)

2003: no ranked opponents, Indiana (OOC BCS), Lehigh, Akron, Western Michigan
2004: 1 ranked opponent (17 WVU), Duke (OOC BCS), Murray St., Temple, Buffalo
2005: 1 ranked opponent (16 Louisville), no OOC BCS, Liberty, Buffalo
2006: 1 ranked opponent (4 WVU), Wake Forest (OOC BCS), URI
2007: 1 ranked opponent (11 USF), no OOC BCS, Maine, Temple, Akron
2008: 1 ranked opponent (23 Pitt), Virginia & Baylor (OOC BCS), Hofstra
2009: 1 ranked opponent (19 UNC), UNC (OOC BCS), URI
2010: no ranked opponents, Vanderbilt (OOC BCS), Texas Southern, Buffalo
2011: no ranked opponents, Iowa St. (OOC BCS), Fordham, Western Michigan

Since moving to BCS football, the home schedules have not been that much of a draw. We have only seen 6 ranked opponents in 9 years and no more than one per year. Our OOC schedule has been mostly lower level FCS schools and lower level BCS schools. We have only seen 1 ranked OOC opponent and only 1 top 10 school in 9 years! UConn should have no trouble drawing in the low 30Ks for any team (We've done it for teams like Lehigh, Maine, URI, Hofstra, Texas Southern, Buffalo, Akron, and Western Michigan) and I would expect sellouts for any ranked team.

I think we will see more ranked opponents at The Rent over the next five years than we have over the last five. I think some BE schools are on the upswing and Boise St, Houston, SMU, and UCF should pop in and out of the rankings. In addition, our OOC home schedule improves DRAMATICALLY going forward: Maryland and Michigan in 2013, Tennessee in 2015, Virginia in 2016.

 

[SubbaBub]

I think you are wrong. Look at UConn's home schedules over the past 9 years (since the move to The Rent)

2003: no ranked opponents, Indiana (OOC BCS), Lehigh, Akron, Western Michigan
2004: 1 ranked opponent (17 WVU), Duke (OOC BCS), Murray St., Temple, Buffalo
2005: 1 ranked opponent (16 Louisville), no OOC BCS, Liberty, Buffalo
2006: 1 ranked opponent (4 WVU), Wake Forest (OOC BCS), URI
2007: 1 ranked opponent (11 USF), no OOC BCS, Maine, Temple, Akron
2008: 1 ranked opponent (23 Pitt), Virginia & Baylor (OOC BCS), Hofstra
2009: 1 ranked opponent (19 UNC), UNC (OOC BCS), URI
2010: no ranked opponents, Vanderbilt (OOC BCS), Texas Southern, Buffalo
2011: no ranked opponents, Iowa St. (OOC BCS), Fordham, Western Michigan

Since moving to BCS football, the home schedules have not been that much of a draw. We have only seen 6 ranked opponents in 9 years and no more than one per year. Our OOC schedule has been mostly lower level FCS schools and lower level BCS schools. We have only seen 1 ranked OOC opponent and only 1 top 10 school in 9 years! UConn should have no trouble drawing in the low 30Ks for any team (We've done it for teams like Lehigh, Maine, URI, Hofstra, Texas Southern, Buffalo, Akron, and Western Michigan) and I would expect sellouts for any ranked team.

I think we will see more ranked opponents at The Rent over the next five years than we have over the last five. I think some BE schools are on the upswing and Boise St, Houston, SMU, and UCF should pop in and out of the rankings. In addition, our OOC home schedule improves DRAMATICALLY going forward: Maryland and Michigan in 2013, Tennessee in 2015, Virginia in 2016.

So much this. We get 35k+ just for love of Uconn and tailgating. The draw games have been few and far between. Especially when every other year we only had 3 conference games. In terms of interest this is the programs largest area of potential growth. Event level home games.

Sent from my MB860 using Tapatalk 2

 

[Marty Jackson]

I agree. People refuse to get this, but they will figure it out when we are drawing 25k for games against Memphis and SMU.

But Duke and WF would sell out the Rent right?

 

[Carl Spackler]

I get the MOANING & the WHINING ...

But ... maybe you should consider this ... Syracuse is going to have trouble getting 30,000 for Wake. They are going to enter a period of not having the buzz for visiting basketball (Clemson & VA Tech ... versus Georgetown or Villanova?). We have shifted the earth here. Our regional rivalry ... in fact - lots of regional rivalries ... are gone. I don't know if Humpty Dumpty gets put back together.

I simply do NOT believe that UConn football will not draw 40,000 against Temple or SMU. I would love to say we will go to 50,000. I hesitate because I think we have done a sucky job of converting strong interest into an aggressively building fanbase. Blame Hathaway still.

Losing Syracuse in basketball hurts. (It hurst in football too, b/c that was a gimme win every year....) But it hurts UConn in basketball. Calhoun and Boeheim on the sidelines, all the players that have come through and all the games. Hurts.

But UConn still has Georgetown, Villanova, St. John's, Notre Dame, Providence - yes the Friars that always give us trouble no matter how bad they are - can't figure that one out, but that's rivalry - and on down the line. Louisville, Temple hoops is not slouch, and Memphis is going to be pumping up the b-ball program immensely, now with the potential to go play at MSG in March and be part of the Big East.

Great point about what Syracuse now has in basketball. What's going to draw people to the carrier dome in the 30,000 range? Duck? North Carolina? How often are they coming to upstate New York in a 14 team scheudling format - where BC is the regular home and home partner? I can't wait to see the look on Boeheim's face when he takes the court to coach in ACC tournament in Greensboro, rather than on the garden floor. I wonder if he'll be able to stomach it that long, or will retire before it happens.

The grass isn't always greener.

 

[TRest]

But Duke and WF would sell out the Rent right?

Actually, they already have IIRC. I just think there is a large contingent of NE college football fans that originally signed on to see "traditional" Lambert Trophy teams (you youngsters can google that, or ask Carl) like Pitt, WVU and Cuse play against the state school, for the first time ever. The fact that we drew 35k against MAC schools in the past doesn't guarantee similar results against of steady diet of WTF opponents on our new conference schedule.
Also, the lack of ranked teams visiting the Rent in the past 8 years is a bit of an indictment of the quality of the BE.

 

[06029]

Losing Syracuse in basketball hurts. (It hurst in football too, b/c that was a gimme win every year....) But it hurts UConn in basketball. Calhoun and Boeheim on the sidelines, all the players that have come through and all the games. Hurts.

But UConn still has Georgetown, Villanova, St. John's, Notre Dame, Providence - yes the Friars that always give us trouble no matter how bad they are - can't figure that one out, but that's rivalry - and on down the line. Louisville, Temple hoops is not slouch, and Memphis is going to be pumping up the b-ball program immensely, now with the potential to go play at MSG in March and be part of the Big East.

Here is the fundamental flaw of the BE raiding anyone - the BE is a hybrid league. Until it stops being hybrid, I can not think of anyone that is currently in a BCS league looking to move from a cohesive conference (from the money making side of the equation: FB, MBB; Uconn is an anomaly with wWBB) to some hybrid model with potentially 20 members for all sports but FB that spans 4 time zones unless there is like a 2 or 3x higher payment involved. The question to ask is why the BE keeps losing schools from its FB side. It is not 100% revenue and it is not 100% upgrade in competition (see the thread that never ends for some of those discussions).I bet an honest answer will include being in a conference where everyone is going in the same direction.

The BB side of the BE is an anchor. It can keep you safe at times but if you leave it down all the time, you miss opportunities somewhere else. Uconn is saying all the right things and being a solid upstanding conference member. But screw Gtown, Nova, St John's and Providence. Every BB school has benefited more from the FB schools in the BE than the FB schools ever benefited from them. Playing MSG in March? Yeah, that's nice, but as Uconn fan is that the best thing you can say about the BE right now? And with the double bye format, the first day at MSG sucks (there are about 2,000 in the building) and the second day is only marginally better. Even if St. Johns is playing Day 1, you get about 5,000 in the building.MSG means a lot to Uconn fans because Uconn is always playing the last two days when the best BB is being played. Do you think it means as much to Seton Hall, Providence or DePaul fans? And will BE BB have as high of viewership on the NBC/Comcast cable grouping that it has on ESPN? The ESPN exposure for the BE is unmatched by any other conference. I personally think that NBC will be an unmitigated disaster for BB.

The TV metrics do not seem to imply a huge NBC contract to me. The economic fundamentals of NBC showed them maybe breaking even on the Olympics and they still have ND as their football flagship on Saturday. Neither of those are going away for I believe another decade. Unless you think Rutgers-SMU at noon will outdraw any of the other matchups on the Mickey Mouse networks (which is the slot you have 7 weeks out of the year because ND will not give up 3:30), why would you pay up for something that advertisers will not pay for. The NBCSports network or even the Comcast regionals that might be involved do not change the numbers significantly. I may be wrong, and will gladly admit it if I am, but I think the fundamentals are not there for it to happen. A biding war assumes that the product is wanted by two or more sides with equally unlimited resources.

Sorry for the Spackler-esque post.

 

[observer]

Here is the fundamental flaw of the BE raiding anyone - the BE is a hybrid league. Until it stops being hybrid, I can not think of anyone that is currently in a BCS league looking to move from a cohesive conference (from the money making side of the equation: FB, MBB; Uconn is an anomaly with wWBB) to some hybrid model with potentially 20 members for all sports but FB that spans 4 time zones unless there is like a 2 or 3x higher payment involved. The question to ask is why the BE keeps losing schools from its FB side. It is not 100% revenue and it is not 100% upgrade in competition (see the thread that never ends for some of those discussions).I bet an honest answer will include being in a conference where everyone is going in the same direction.

The BB side of the BE is an anchor. It can keep you safe at times but if you leave it down all the time, you miss opportunities somewhere else. Uconn is saying all the right things and being a solid upstanding conference member. But screw Gtown, Nova, St John's and Providence. Every BB school has benefited more from the FB schools in the BE than the FB schools ever benefited from them. Playing MSG in March? Yeah, that's nice, but as Uconn fan is that the best thing you can say about the BE right now? And with the double bye format, the first day at MSG sucks (there are about 2,000 in the building) and the second day is only marginally better. Even if St. Johns is playing Day 1, you get about 5,000 in the building.MSG means a lot to Uconn fans because Uconn is always playing the last two days when the best BB is being played. Do you think it means as much to Seton Hall, Providence or DePaul fans? And will BE BB have as high of viewership on the NBC/Comcast cable grouping that it has on ESPN? The ESPN exposure for the BE is unmatched by any other conference. I personally think that NBC will be an unmitigated disaster for BB.

The TV metrics do not seem to imply a huge NBC contract to me. The economic fundamentals of NBC showed them maybe breaking even on the Olympics and they still have ND as their football flagship on Saturday. Neither of those are going away for I believe another decade. Unless you think Rutgers-SMU at noon will outdraw any of the other matchups on the Mickey Mouse networks (which is the slot you have 7 weeks out of the year because ND will not give up 3:30), why would you pay up for something that advertisers will not pay for. The NBCSports network or even the Comcast regionals that might be involved do not change the numbers significantly. I may be wrong, and will gladly admit it if I am, but I think the fundamentals are not there for it to happen. A biding war assumes that the product is wanted by two or more sides with equally unlimited resources.

Sorry for the Spackler-esque post.

Ding, ding, ding, we have a winner. See I can agree with what people post here.

The NBE has no matchups that are compelling for football and that is where the value of any conference lies. Rutgers-SMU and most NBE matchups perhaps Louisville and Boise on occasion will have a hard time out drawing infomercials.

 

[CL82]

Sorry for the Spackler-esque post.

No problem, but it all honesty it really didn't rise to that level. Keep trying though.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

99.999% chance that no, the BE does not raid the ACC. The only thing that could swing things a bit is if the BE ends up with an NBC contract where there are multiple BE games shown on the broadcast NBC (not NBCSN, etc.) on Saturdays, as well as primetime weekday basketball games on NBC. NBCSN is nice, but it's market reach is not near that of NBC, or ESPN for that matter, so if they're willing to commit some time slots from NBC, that would be something that could match up with ESPN from a market reach standpoint. Most people in the country still don't really know much about NBCSN outside of some NHL fans, so when they hear that the Big East football game is on NBCSN, they'll say, huh, what channel is that? Games have to be on the broadcast channel, that'll bring in maximum ratings.

 

[uconNYC]

Big East should go after Penn State and offer to pay their $60M fine. Would be a masterstroke.

 

[pj]

Big East should go after Penn State and offer to pay their $60M fine. Would be a masterstroke.

Yes, and what's the termination fee for Penn State then leaving the Big East for the Big Ten? $5 million?

 

[whaler11]

It's not out of the realm of possibility that the Big East could poach a team or two. Of course the two easiest targets are Syracuse and Pitt....

 

[Srqhusky]

Interesting concept if a betwork besides espn overpays the big east. Could it cause a reshifting of teams and is it legally possible ?