We're mistaking fans for eyeballs here.
Neither Rutgers nor Maryland was invited because they're particularly popular or particularly good - they're neither.
They were invited because of where they are, not what they are. The Big Ten will almost certainly be carried by cable stations from New York City down through Washington, DC - that's a huge number of tv sets and a wallop of carriage fees. It's simply a market play.
Geography is just a huge issue for us - it's one of the reasons why we're still where we are.
I can't understand how you make such complete sense for six straight sentences then throw logic out the window in the seventh. Geography is exactly what we've got going for us. Simplifying in the extreme, re-alignment is about two things: 1) identifying new markets; 2) creating a compelling case for the target market to purchase your product.
All indications are that the B1G's target is the area between Boston to D.C., the northeast megalopolis. Not the northeast PLUS North Carolina. Not the northeast plus some combination of North Carolina/Georgia/Florida. Why the northeast? Because it doubles the size (population) of the B1G's market and it is very lightly contested and defended. Why not the northeast PLUS some combination of North Carolina/Georgia/Florida? Because it's too big a bite of the apple. Opening up a market the size of an existing market is a HUGE risk. Adding even greater risk by trying to conquer a B1G wilderness like the south Atlantic coase is a true fool's errand.
Whatever plans the B1G may have beyond the northeast, the strategy is lilely very long range. If there is a desire to go south and east because of population trends, which has a greater liklihood of success? 1) Ignore a crapload (crapload defined as a potential market of 15+ million) of eyeballs currently unaccounted for and marching southeast from somewhere in Illinois -- or -- 2) focusing exclusively on the northeast, then marching south with an army of 120 million sets of eyeballs?
I once worked for a very large company that developed the best product in a new, potentially huge, and exploding market. There was, however, formidable competition even if they were a generation behind technologically. What did my company do? They sold the product line. When asked why, the CEO said that to achieve those rewards would require mortgaging the company. Failure may have meant bankruptcy. The south Atlantic, in addition to the northeast represents more risk than even the powerful B1G can realistically manage today.
How does the B1G create a compelling case for customers in the northeast to purchase the B1G product? The most straightforward way (and probably easiest and least risky) is through acquisition. Bring in universities already existing in the new territory. If there are existing and available candidates in the region that can increase per member immediately, great. If not, time and resources will be required to nurture the new members. But schools aren't the product. Contests are. Compelling contests. Maryland is, to some degree, appealing to D.C. but a contest requires an opponent. All other things being equal, contests between opponents that are geographically proximate are generally more compelling than those that are distant. When I was at Maryland, the games that drew the most interest weren't againt opponents in the Carolinas. They were Navy and Penn State.
We talk a lot about who's so-and-so's "parter" in conference reshuffling. If UNC goes to the SEC, is Duke their partner so the SEC gets to 16? Stuff like that. The same question should be asked about opening new markets. NYC is too large for Rutgers to manage by itself. What's the compelling contest that incites the rabble, generates the interest, delivers the customers? Who could be the Knight's partner in opening New York? An ideal candidate would be someone who has a local audience of its own, someone who is geographically nearby. The school that fills that bill best is us. Hold on! Did somebody just make our geography a positive? Bingo! The same way Rutgers and Maryland's geography was the differentiating factor in their B1G invitations.
If people spent half as much time and energy focusing on why it's a bad idea for the B1G to go south now as they do on remembering UConn's lack of a rich football history, this debate would have ended a long time ago. The degree to which we lack a proper pedigree is a far, far more manageable condition for the B1G than predicting the result of some mid-west Pickett riding pell mell down the south Atlantic coast. We are THE most logical candidate (along with Virginia and for the same reasons) for the B1G's next move because we are clearly the best choice to be Rutger's partner in what can become the B1G's most valuable market: New York City.
