Who should be the overall #1 seed if the tournament started today?

[DavidK]

ESPN play by play analyst Beth Mowins has said the past two days (Sunday during the Duke v. Notre Dame game and tonight during the Nebraska v. Penn State game) that Notre Dame should be the #1 overall seed over Uconn. Trying to be as neutral fan i looked up and compared the statistics that are updated every Monday. If the selection show was today here is where things stand:

(Note: It only gives the top 50 teams in each category so if either team is not in the top 50, I can't find out where they rank in the nation)

Record
Uconn :28-0
Notre Dame: 27-0

RPI
Uconn: 3rd in nation
Notre Dame: 1st in nation

SOS
Uconn: 36th in nation
Notre Dame: 8th in nation

Scoring
Uconn: 84.4 ppg (6th in nation)
Notre Dame: 87.1 ppg (2nd in nation)

Opponents points per game
Uconn: 47.0 (1st in nation)
Notre Dame: 61.4 (Just outside the top 50)

Scoring Margin
Uconn: +37.4 (1st in nation)
Notre Dame: +25.7 (2nd in nation)

Field Goal %
Uconn: 51.3 (1st in nation)
Notre Dame: 51.3 (2nd in nation by such a small margin, it’s basically a tie)

Opponents Field Goal %
Uconn: 30.3 (1st in nation)
Notre Dame: Outside the top 50

Rebound Margin
Uconn: +8.5 (19th in nation)
Notre Dame: +9.4 (11th in nation)

Assists per game
Uconn: 22.2 (1st in nation)
Notre Dame: 21.3 (2nd in nation)

Blocks per game
Uconn: 8.6 (1st in nation)
Notre Dame: Outside the top 50

Steals per game
Uconn: 10.2 (29th in nation)
Notre Dame: Outside the top 50

Fewest Turnovers
Uconn 11.5 (2nd in nation)
Notre Dame: Outside the top 50


It is clear that down the stretch, Notre Dame has had to play harder competition because the ACC is better than American from top to bottom, but there is nothing Uconn can do about having to play all these teams twice. Also, Uconn has won by a larger margin in similar games

At Penn State
Uconn: W 71-52
Notre Dame: W 77-67

At Duke
Uconn: W 83-61
Notre Dame: W 88-67

At Maryland
Uconn: 72-55
Notre Dame: W 87-83

So who do you think should be the #1 overall seed if the tournament started today?

 

[FairView]

I don't care.

 

[easttexastrash]

There is zero chance that the committe will not put UCONN as the overall #1. The talking heads on TV want to stir it up a but they know which team is truly the best team. If they make ND the overall #1 they will look foolish. Although I suspect that KML's health could be a factor.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

It really isn't as important as it used to be, since they seem to have tossed the "S" curve and since the geography is all messed up because of the on-campus regional sites.

At this point, I would probably give it to UConn as "more impressive", but talk to me if ND goes undefeated the rest of the way through the ACC (tournament included).

 

[Suebird10fan]

ESPN play by play analyst Beth Mowins has said the past two days (Sunday during the Duke v. Notre Dame game and tonight during the Nebraska v. Penn State game) that Notre Dame should be the #1 overall seed over Uconn. Trying to be as neutral fan i looked up and compared the statistics that are updated every Monday. If the selection show was today here is where things stand:

(Note: It only gives the top 50 teams in each category so if either team is not in the top 50, I can't find out where they rank in the nation)

Record
Uconn :28-0
Notre Dame: 27-0

RPI
Uconn: 3rd in nation
Notre Dame: 1st in nation

SOS
Uconn: 36th in nation
Notre Dame: 8th in nation

Scoring
Uconn: 84.4 ppg (6th in nation)
Notre Dame: 87.1 ppg (2nd in nation)

Opponents points per game
Uconn: 47.0 (1st in nation)
Notre Dame: 61.4 (Just outside the top 50)

Scoring Margin
Uconn: +37.4 (1st in nation)
Notre Dame: +25.7 (2nd in nation)

Field Goal %
Uconn: 51.3 (1st in nation)
Notre Dame: 51.3 (2nd in nation by such a small margin, it’s basically a tie)

Opponents Field Goal %
Uconn: 30.3 (1st in nation)
Notre Dame: Outside the top 50

Rebound Margin
Uconn: +8.5 (19th in nation)
Notre Dame: +9.4 (11th in nation)

Assists per game
Uconn: 22.2 (1st in nation)
Notre Dame: 21.3 (2nd in nation)

Blocks per game
Uconn: 8.6 (1st in nation)
Notre Dame: Outside the top 50

Steals per game
Uconn: 10.2 (29th in nation)
Notre Dame: Outside the top 50

Fewest Turnovers
Uconn 11.5 (2nd in nation)
Notre Dame: Outside the top 50


It is clear that down the stretch, Notre Dame has had to play harder competition because the ACC is better than American from top to bottom, but there is nothing Uconn can do about having to play all these teams twice. Also, Uconn has won by a larger margin in similar games

At Penn State
Uconn: W 71-52
Notre Dame: W 77-67

At Duke
Uconn: W 83-61
Notre Dame: W 88-67

At Maryland
Uconn: 72-55
Notre Dame: W 87-83

So who do you think should be the #1 overall seed if the tournament started today?

This is one of those situations where if it were men's basketball there would be no debate. Jay Bilas et al would just acknowledge the obvious.

But in wcbb shoddy analysis is presented with a straight face for the sake of stoking interest.

 

[easttexastrash]

But you have to admit that ND has a tremendous body of work.

 

[Forty_four]

As Rebecca Lobo stated this evening at halftime of the Neb/Penn St game: UConn passes the eye test, they are the number 1 overall seed.

 

[DobbsRover2]

ACC is beginning to look a lot less competitive in the wake of Duke's troubles. UNC can go any which way, and the rest of the conference is not really that impressive unless you somehow think that NC State and MD have accomplished great things this year. So with two of the top 3 teams, a ranked Rutgers, and a fast-rising USF, the AAC has some decent calling cards. And ND's OOC just did not have anywhere near the top teams as UConn.

I don't necessarily think Mowins is giving shoddy analysis, but like ETT said, her job is to stir up controversy and bring fan interest to WCBB topics. And if ND meets UConn in the NC and wins, she will be trumpeting her predictions; and if not, everything will be conveniently forgotten. But there is a long long way before anything can be put to the test.

 

[Alydar]

This is just ESPN stirring the pot. They searched and searched and found a stat that supports ND as the overall 1; record against RPI top 50 teams. Tonight when asking who should be the 4th 1 seed they used RPI top 25. I can't stand seeing stats used like this.

If UConn can bring 8 healthy scholarship players to the FF it won't matter. Offensively UConn and Notre Dame are very close. UConn is even better on defense than on offense. Notre Dame is defensively vulnerable. That's why UConn should be the overall No. 1.

 

[Henry]

The ACC is overrated and always has been. Plus, the ACC blackballs us(thanks BC) and to compensate, Geno schedules the toughest out of conference schedule. So, Beth Mowins, an ACC shill decides that Notre Dame is better than we are even though we won the National Championship and beat ND in our last matchup? Plus, Diggins is gone and we have the Final Four MOP and potential player of the year. Great analysis,Beth.

 

[ctfjr]

The ACC is overrated and always has been. Plus, the ACC blackballs us(thanks BC) and to compensate, Geno schedules the toughest out of conference schedule. So, Beth Mowins, an ACC shill decides that Notre Dame is better than we are even though we won the National Championship and beat ND in our last matchup? Plus, Diggins is gone and we have the Final Four MOP and potential player of the year. Great analysis,Beth.

lol Henry. My friends tell me that I'm the biggest homer around. I cede the crown to you

 

[triaddukefan]

UCONN, UCONN, UCONN


and i not just saying that to increase my likes received total

However... like Trash said... ND does have a great body of work...... and in most other seasons they would definitely be the #1 overall seed.

 

[hoophuskee]

It is clear that down the stretch, Notre Dame has had to play harder competition because the ACC is better than American from top to bottom, but there is nothing Uconn can do about having to play all these teams twice. Also, Uconn has won by a larger margin in similar games

But what does the “mean?” They should be the overall number 1 seed because they played more teams ranked 10-20? Why is playing more teams 10-20 more important than playing teams 3-9 etc? Right now UCONN has blown out two teams in the top 5. UCONN and ND are so good, does teams 10-20 matter that much to sway?

UCONN has played 6 different teams in the top 9. None of them was game decided in last minute. ND – game down to wire vs MD. ND has played 6 different teams in top 14 - so UCONN has played more different teams in top ten, right?

UCONN has played two teams in the top 5. ND none. SO to summarize- when NCAA Tourney starts, there is a real possibility ND wouldn’t have played not one top 5 team while UCONN has a shot to play 2. You see how this data can be manipulated?

 

[DavidK]

Yes I get how data can be manipulated, which is why the blind resume tests are not bulletproof, and why I disagree with Beth. They did another tests with the resumes of three teams later in tonight's telecast which made it look like Duke should get the last 4th seed over Louisville and South Carolina. What you cannot manipulate is Uconn and Notre Dame are both excellent teams and both are having great years. Whole reason I created this thread was to see what everyone thinks of Beth's comments.

 

[hoophuskee]

Yes I get how data can be manipulated, which is why the blind resume tests are not bulletproof, and why I disagree with Beth. They did another tests with the resumes of three teams later in tonight's telecast which made it look like Duke should get the last 4th seed over Louisville and South Carolina. What you cannot manipulate is Uconn and Notre Dame are both excellent teams and both are having great years. Whole reason I created this thread was to see what everyone thinks of Beth's comments.

I don't think they are very smart- and I being extremely nice.

 

[mhshuskies]

ESPN play by play analyst Beth Mowins has said the past two days (Sunday during the Duke v. Notre Dame game and tonight during the Nebraska v. Penn State game) that Notre Dame should be the #1 overall seed over Uconn. Trying to be as neutral fan i looked up and compared the statistics that are updated every Monday. If the selection show was today here is where things stand:

(Note: It only gives the top 50 teams in each category so if either team is not in the top 50, I can't find out where they rank in the nation)

Record
Uconn :28-0
Notre Dame: 27-0

RPI
Uconn: 3rd in nation
Notre Dame: 1st in nation

SOS
Uconn: 36th in nation
Notre Dame: 8th in nation

Scoring
Uconn: 84.4 ppg (6th in nation)
Notre Dame: 87.1 ppg (2nd in nation)

Opponents points per game
Uconn: 47.0 (1st in nation)
Notre Dame: 61.4 (Just outside the top 50)

Scoring Margin
Uconn: +37.4 (1st in nation)
Notre Dame: +25.7 (2nd in nation)

Field Goal %
Uconn: 51.3 (1st in nation)
Notre Dame: 51.3 (2nd in nation by such a small margin, it’s basically a tie)

Opponents Field Goal %
Uconn: 30.3 (1st in nation)
Notre Dame: Outside the top 50

Rebound Margin
Uconn: +8.5 (19th in nation)
Notre Dame: +9.4 (11th in nation)

Assists per game
Uconn: 22.2 (1st in nation)
Notre Dame: 21.3 (2nd in nation)

Blocks per game
Uconn: 8.6 (1st in nation)
Notre Dame: Outside the top 50

Steals per game
Uconn: 10.2 (29th in nation)
Notre Dame: Outside the top 50

Fewest Turnovers
Uconn 11.5 (2nd in nation)
Notre Dame: Outside the top 50


It is clear that down the stretch, Notre Dame has had to play harder competition because the ACC is better than American from top to bottom, but there is nothing Uconn can do about having to play all these teams twice. Also, Uconn has won by a larger margin in similar games

At Penn State
Uconn: W 71-52
Notre Dame: W 77-67

At Duke
Uconn: W 83-61
Notre Dame: W 88-67

At Maryland
Uconn: 72-55
Notre Dame: W 87-83

So who do you think should be the #1 overall seed if the tournament started today?

Also look at which top 10 teams UCONN and nd played other than the common opponents (by current poles): UCONN vs. Louisville (3), Stanford (5), Baylor (6), nd vs. Tenn (10). I think that says a lot more than an RPI based on playing more middle of the pack teams.

 

[mhshuskies]

But you have to admit that ND has a tremendous body of work.

no

 

[RegisteredUconn]

ACC is beginning to look a lot less competitive in the wake of Duke's troubles. UNC can go any which way, and the rest of the conference is not really that impressive unless you somehow think that NC State and MD have accomplished great things this year. So with two of the top 3 teams, a ranked Rutgers, and a fast-rising USF, the AAC has some decent calling cards. And ND's OOC just did not have anywhere near the top teams as UConn.

I don't necessarily think Mowins is giving shoddy analysis, but like ETT said, her job is to stir up controversy and bring fan interest to WCBB topics. And if ND meets UConn in the NC and wins, she will be trumpeting her predictions; and if not, everything will be conveniently forgotten. But there is a long long way before anything can be put to the test.

Her job is to generate interest; her method is to stir up controversy. She cheapens her job to the extent her method is propaganda based.

 

[Fightin Choke]

ESPN play by play analyst Beth Mowins has said the past two days (Sunday during the Duke v. Notre Dame game and tonight during the Nebraska v. Penn State game) that Notre Dame should be the #1 overall seed over Uconn. Trying to be as neutral fan i looked up and compared the statistics that are updated every Monday. If the selection show was today here is where things stand:

(Note: It only gives the top 50 teams in each category so if either team is not in the top 50, I can't find out where they rank in the nation)

Record
Uconn :28-0
Notre Dame: 27-0

RPI
Uconn: 3rd in nation
Notre Dame: 1st in nation

SOS
Uconn: 36th in nation
Notre Dame: 8th in nation

Scoring
Uconn: 84.4 ppg (6th in nation)
Notre Dame: 87.1 ppg (2nd in nation)

Opponents points per game
Uconn: 47.0 (1st in nation)
Notre Dame: 61.4 (Just outside the top 50)

Scoring Margin
Uconn: +37.4 (1st in nation)
Notre Dame: +25.7 (2nd in nation)

Field Goal %
Uconn: 51.3 (1st in nation)
Notre Dame: 51.3 (2nd in nation by such a small margin, it’s basically a tie)

Opponents Field Goal %
Uconn: 30.3 (1st in nation)
Notre Dame: Outside the top 50

Rebound Margin
Uconn: +8.5 (19th in nation)
Notre Dame: +9.4 (11th in nation)

Assists per game
Uconn: 22.2 (1st in nation)
Notre Dame: 21.3 (2nd in nation)

Blocks per game
Uconn: 8.6 (1st in nation)
Notre Dame: Outside the top 50

Steals per game
Uconn: 10.2 (29th in nation)
Notre Dame: Outside the top 50

Fewest Turnovers
Uconn 11.5 (2nd in nation)
Notre Dame: Outside the top 50


It is clear that down the stretch, Notre Dame has had to play harder competition because the ACC is better than American from top to bottom, but there is nothing Uconn can do about having to play all these teams twice. Also, Uconn has won by a larger margin in similar games

At Penn State
Uconn: W 71-52
Notre Dame: W 77-67

At Duke
Uconn: W 83-61
Notre Dame: W 88-67

At Maryland
Uconn: 72-55
Notre Dame: W 87-83

So who do you think should be the #1 overall seed if the tournament started today?

As a Notre Dame fan, I don't care who is the top 1-seed in the tourney, but I think that much of the evidence you cite is flawed. While UConn cannot help their weak conference SOS, it certainly boosts their NCAA stats, so using UConn's statistical dominance to prove they are best is fraught with peril. Additionally, Notre Dame uses their starters for significantly fewer minutes than does UConn (21 fewer minutes per game). Some of this is forced by injuries, but a lot of it is by design. Geno certainly slows down the pace in the second half of blowouts, but he rides the starters hard. Despite having a much lower MOV, Muffet puts in the bench players and that affects team stats.

The common opponents comparison is much more appropriate, although we only have 3 games upon which to base the comparison. UConn certainly wins that comparison, and I have absolutely no problem with UConn being the top 1-seed. With the G-curve instead of the S-curve, and the 3rd and 4th 1-seeds looking interchangeable, there is no tangible benefit to the designation anyway. This isn't a beauty contest and the tournament will sort it all out anyways.

 

[UcMiami]

RPI is a bogus stat and has always been as far as women's basketball is concerned. As of now RPI rankings that make this abundantly clear:
Stanford = #2
Duke = #3
LSU = #9
Penn State = #10
St Josephs = #11
It really is pretty immaterial but when discussing 2 undefeated teams that have both played strong schedules anything to do with records against anybody but the top ten or fifteen teams ranked by any measure but especially by something a little more meaningful than RPI is necessary to compare the two.
And the eye test - Uconn has blown out everyone with Baylor at 11 points being the closest competition - ND has blown out most people but struggled a little against some lesser teams.

 

[reno tony]

Ask the coaches from the teams both ND and UCONN played.

58 TO GO​

 

[PacoSwede]

Ask the coaches from the teams both ND and UCONN played.

58 TO GO​

Indeed.

And, ask Mowins (the 'controversy' was first brought up by CPeck, BTW) or any of the others playing the ESPN hype game where they would actually lay down their own money on this question, and you know every one of them would choose UConn. Even Peck, who clearly has a 'thing' about UConn.

Of course, who the No1 No.1 is doesn't really matter. But it offers another opportunity for me to get on my hobbyhorse regarding the media.

In this case: Go ahead and hype up whatever you want. It's part of your job job to get viewers. But STOP misleading your audience in the process. Intellectual dishonesty ain't pretty.

Media have a lot of influence in this country these days, and it should be used to keep people well-informed as well as entertained. Purposely fogging the facts and resorting to propaganda tactics is irresponsible and a betrayal of what should be a cardinal principle for media -- disseminating truth.

While not truly harmful in the sports realm, it's extremely dangerous when the 'real world' is the topic. And if we -- viewers and media themselves -- get used to accepting the distortions of reality in the sports arena, everyone eventually will find it difficult to distinguish truth from propaganda in all arenas. For too many folks, this has already happened.

So, ESPN, shape up.

 

[diggerfoot]

As a Notre Dame fan, I don't care who is the top 1-seed in the tourney, but I think that much of the evidence you cite is flawed. While UConn cannot help their weak conference SOS, it certainly boosts their NCAA stats, so using UConn's statistical dominance to prove they are best is fraught with peril. Additionally, Notre Dame uses their starters for significantly fewer minutes than does UConn (21 fewer minutes per game). Some of this is forced by injuries, but a lot of it is by design. Geno certainly slows down the pace in the second half of blowouts, but he rides the starters hard. Despite having a much lower MOV, Muffet puts in the bench players and that affects team stats.

The common opponents comparison is much more appropriate, although we only have 3 games upon which to base the comparison. UConn certainly wins that comparison, and I have absolutely no problem with UConn being the top 1-seed. With the G-curve instead of the S-curve, and the 3rd and 4th 1-seeds looking interchangeable, there is no tangible benefit to the designation anyway. This isn't a beauty contest and the tournament will sort it all out anyways.

Yes, the statistics are flawed, as are most statistics void of context. For example, making ND #1 based on performance against top 50 omits the context that UConn is better against top 15, which is more pertinent to NCAA seeding. You attempt to provide some context yourself, but let's take a closer look at that. Having little choice, UConn plays starters longer in blowouts. Those starter still must play the game the right way but Auriemma takes the foot off the pedal. How that impacts offensive statistics should be somewhat a wash. The greater impact would be on defensive statistics, but UConn's are so superior in this regards as to leave little doubt that they are the better defensive team, even if not quite as superior as the naked statistics suggest. For that matter, when the freshman Chong plays 37 minutes in a game because of regular starter injuries that calls to question how much UConn's thin roster is boosting starter minutes.

 

[JoePgh]

With the G-curve instead of the S-curve, and the 3rd and 4th 1-seeds looking interchangeable, there is no tangible benefit to the designation anyway. This isn't a beauty contest and the tournament will sort it all out anyways.

You have overlooked a critical difference that is determined by who is the #1 vs. #2 overall seed: the color of the uniforms worn in the NCAA Finals game.