What's your prediction for the Big 12 expansion announcement?

[CL82]

The Twitteratti and the media have had their say, why not us?

I'll start us off. We're doomed.

Expand by 4 without UConn

 

[BlueMAB]

Whatever way it goes, in the first 20 minutes I predict 19 New threads, and 185 throats punched

 

[amory]

I'm inclined to agree with you at this point, that we're not getting in. In the end, geography will hurt and Diaco just hasn't gotten us far enough along in the rebuild yet.

I'll say they expand by 2, and add UC and BYU for an East/West divisional split.

Fox/ESPN are somewhat placated by just a 2-team addition, and BYU brings good football and a lot of eyes. UC for some reason just has always had a ton of momentum despite being unspectacular (though solid) at all sports. I think they get in, and Texas can shrug and tell the government "hey we tried, could only get 2 adds and UH didn't have the votes".

 

[bmayuc]

 

[nelsonmuntz]

My prediction: ESPN and Fox pay the Big 12 $50MM+ more per year and eliminate the pro rata clause from the Big 12 contract.

No teams added.

 

[amory]

My prediction: ESPN and Fox pay the Big 12 $50MM+ more per year and eliminate the pro rata clause from the Big 12 contract.

No teams added.

To me that doesn't make any sense. If you're going to pay out that much, why not at least get some more content out of it? You could add 2 teams and pay exactly the same amount of money, even if you don't particularly like the additions. It's a free bet that the 2 adds will improve

 

[shizzle787]

I predict that the Big 12 and its media partners will come to an agreement whereby the conference expands by 2. I think the consultants 12- team plan is the one they go with, and ESPN/FOX have a say in the picking of the schools. Ultimately, I think UConn and BYU (for most sports that they can including basketball and football) will be the two chosen for brand. The Big 12 has already shifted its MBB tourney final to Saturday so BYU could bring basketball along as well.

 

[Penfield]

To me that doesn't make any sense. If you're going to pay out that much, why not at least get some more content out of it? You could add 2 teams and pay exactly the same amount of money, even if you don't particularly like the additions. It's a free bet that the 2 adds will improve

Don't forget that they already have the media rights to a majority of the expansion candidates. There isnt much benefit to ESPN to pay an additional $75-$100M a year for the stuff they own for $6-8M now. Then they have to pay whoever the American decides to expand with.

 

[UCHuskies08]

4 in not including UConn. Until Rule #1 of Realignment is broken, I can't foresee anything else.

 

[pepband99]

Don't forget that they already have the media rights to a majority of the expansion candidates. There isnt much benefit to ESPN to pay an additional $75-$100M a year for the stuff they own for $6-8M now. Then they have to pay whoever the American decides to expand with.

...but they'll pay the AAC much less, based on provisions for leavers, depending on who they are. It still won't net out to 0, but it will soften the blow.

 

[Charley Horse]

I'm afraid they will take Cincy for OU, UofH for Texas and stop at 12 for ESPN, but I really hope OU likes UConn just as much as they like Cincy and that ESPN encourages them to opt for UConn over Cincy because of the better market. Meanwhile Texas will likely bluster about having to fly a little further but secretly smile because UConn is much better academically.

 

[Excalibur]

4 in not including UConn. Until Rule #1 of Realignment is broken, I can't foresee anything else.

Although logic would indicate this is the least likely scenario, Rule #1 rules out.

In reality, I think the most likely is that it is two teams not including us.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

...but they'll pay the AAC much less, based on provisions for leavers, depending on who they are. It still won't net out to 0, but it will soften the blow.

The AAC is bargain basement already. If they cut the revenue any more, half the AD's in the league would resemble MAC athletic departments. ESPN has too many content gaps to fill to want that to happen.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

To me that doesn't make any sense. If you're going to pay out that much, why not at least get some more content out of it? You could add 2 teams and pay exactly the same amount of money, even if you don't particularly like the additions. It's a free bet that the 2 adds will improve

There are a lot of ways you could structure it. Maybe it is $40 to the whole league, and $20 in guaranteed purchases of Tier 3 content, so ESPN gets some additional P5 content that way.

 

[CL82]

My prediction: ESPN and Fox pay the Big 12 $50MM+ more per year and eliminate the pro rata clause from the Big 12 contract.

No teams added.

Sorry Nelson. I should have included that as an option.

I put it up there for you now.

 

[The Funster]

Four in, UConn included.

 

[sportsart]

My prediction: ESPN and Fox pay the Big 12 $50MM+ more per year and eliminate the pro rata clause from the Big 12 contract.

No teams added.

So the 10 teams get $5 mill a year instead of at least $15 mill a year by adding 4? What am I missing?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

So the 10 teams get $5 mill a year instead of at least $15 mill a year by adding 4? What am I missing?

If they added 4, the Big 12 would get about $15MM per new team added per year, or $60 million a year. Or they could just take a check from ESPN for some amount and not add anyone. I think Texas will vote for money and no additions, but I hope I am wrong.

 

[sportsart]

If they added 4, the Big 12 would get about $15MM per new team added per year, or $60 million a year. Or they could just take a check from ESPN for some amount and not add anyone. I think Texas will vote for money and no additions, but I hope I am wrong.

So the numbers (I think I saw) of $25 mill per team or $100 mill times 8 years is not true?

 

[Exit 4]

I'm holding off on any predictions until Friday. I think the B12 will give the AAC a few days for its media event and then start leaking info again at the end of the week.

 

[upstater]

Cincy and UConn, they add 2.

 

[Slasher]

Cincy and UConn, they add 2.

I feel like if ESPN has their way that's what's going to happen.

 

[Redding Husky]

BYU, Cincinnati, UConn, and Houston/Memphis.

I rate that as having a 51% chance of happening. There's a 49% chance of no UConn invitation.

 

[Redding Husky]

I feel like if ESPN has their way that's what's going to happen.

ESPN has done nothing but slit our throats for 15 years and you think they're going to push us in as one of two schools with Cincinnati?

Wow. I wish I had your faith.

 

[MattMang23]

I feel like as fans we have been putting major money down in the past with a 9 and an ace only to see the dealer (conferences) come up with two kings and an ace. This time we are holding, like, a 16 and just praying Memphis, who's sitting next to us, doesn't draw a six or less as they're sitting there with a 15.

After that long analogy, I guess I'm just saying I'm not optimistic.