What's the likelihood of going undefeated?

[hoophuskee]

I'm interested in seeing against ND whether Nat can hit some 15-footers and draw Turner away from the basket.

I don't think that is possible. ND will give her the shot for one thing (for example if NB goes 3-5 from the floor I'm sure ND woudl expect NB's next two shots to be 3-7) and secondly UCONN won't look for that option to be anything more than a "show-me" occasional basket. Or if Turner does come out on her - it will be an attempt to force a turnover. Which is why I don't think UCONN will ever use her like that. Because if she does get the ball on the perimeter, I wouldn't call her "Dolson" when it comes to passing. And vs a top tier team-- too much risk. Also, if she is just 50-60% ft shooter I don't believe she is the type of player that can pull away a defender from the basket by consistently hitting jump shots.

Instead Gabby and/or Collier can. Collier is 6'1 and Turner is 6'3. So at one end she can guard her - hopefully. At the other end Collier would be a much much much much much better probability option to pull Turner away. I'm very interested though to see which one will Turner guard - Gabby or Collier?

 

[AAADog]

I said 80%. I think there is a good chance of running the table. I certainly think we can beat Maryland and think we have at least a 50-50 chance of beating ND. I agree with those that say South Carolina is the best team right now, and if we were playing now there is a good chance we would lose. But the SC game is not in December. It is Feb 15, at the end of the season. So the question is, which of the 2 teams will improve the most between now and then. Based on past experience and the rate at which UCONN seems to be jelling through the first 4 games, I am betting we will be ready to win that game in Feb. In any case, that is likely to be the game of the year, hyped like crazy.

 

[Tontobruto]

I said 80%. I think there is a good chance of running the table. I certainly think we can beat Maryland and think we have at least a 50-50 chance of beating ND. I agree with those that say South Carolina is the best team right now, and if we were playing now there is a good chance we would lose. But the SC game is not in December. It is Feb 15, at the end of the season. So the question is, which of the 2 teams will improve the most between now and then. Based on past experience and the rate at which UCONN seems to be jelling through the first 4 games, I am betting we will be ready to win that game in Feb. In any case, that is likely to be the game of the year, hyped like crazy.

I said 80%. I think there is a good chance of running the table. I certainly think we can beat Maryland and think we have at least a 50-50 chance of beating ND. I agree with those that say South Carolina is the best team right now, and if we were playing now there is a good chance we would lose. But the SC game is not in December. It is Feb 15, at the end of the season. So the question is, which of the 2 teams will improve the most between now and then. Based on past experience and the rate at which UCONN seems to be jelling through the first 4 games, I am betting we will be ready to win that game in Feb. In any case, that is likely to be the game of the year, hyped like crazy.

But AAADog if we only have a 50-50 chance of beating ND how can we have an 80% chance of running the table?

 

[Carnac]

If every team on UCONN's schedule had to pick one game they would likely lose..... who do you think they would pick? Then let's make it so! Undefeated season coming right up.

Tony, the same could be said of which game on their schedule would they most like to win. The pendulum swings both ways. I do like your take better though. Let's go with that!!

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

People, a lot of fans are very tough on our post players for fumbling the passes into the post but please remember that most of these passes are down at knee or ankle level and you can never complete a pass down low, it's too far to reach for a 6'3" to 6'6" big girl! The pass to the post has to be waist, chest or high to jump and use their height! Natalie has gotten some bad revues for passes that a big girl cannot handle, and anything up she catches and attacks! So please before you put grief on a big girl ask yourself WHERE WAS THE PASS!

 

[Carnac]

I'm going to make my first bold prediction of the season (I'm going out as far on this limb as I can)......................NO TEAM WILL GO UNDEFEATED THIS SEASON.
Book it!!! I don't/will not predict that UConn will lose a particular game. That's bad Mojo, and not my style. I predict victories for our team. If you think going undefeated is easy and common place, do a little research, and look up how may different teams have gone undefeated the last 15 years.

According to Ken Pomeroy (2016 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings) there are 351 Division basketball teams. 351 opportunities EVERY YEAR for a team to post a perfect season. Multiply that by 15 (years), you have 5,265 opportunities in the last 15 years for a D-1 team to post a perfect record.

How many times has it been done? The law of averages say it won't happen this year, since it happened last year. Perfect seasons not common place, and don't happen every year. We may not see another one for 10 years, or we may see one next year. I'm saying "not THIS year". We'll just have to wait and see if I'm getting incorrect information from my resources, or if in fact the envelope is correct.

A pitcher can throw a no hitter, and never throw another one again the rest of his career. Multiple no-hitters are rare, kinda like multiple undefeated seasons. UConn has 6. I believe no other women's team has more than 1.

 

[bballnut90]

I'm going to make my first bold prediction of the season (I'm going out as far on this limb as I can).......NO TEAM WILL GO UNDEFEATED THIS SEASON.
Book it!!! I don't/will not predict that UConn will lose a particular game. That's bad Mojo, and not my style. I predict victories for our team. If you think going undefeated is easy and common place, do a little research, and look up how may different teams have gone undefeated the last 15 years.

According to Ken Pomeroy (2016 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings) there are 351 Division basketball teams. 351 opportunities EVERY YEAR for a team to post a perfect season. Multiply that by 15 (years), you have 5,265 opportunities in the last 15 years for a D-1 team to post a perfect record.

How many times has it been done? The law of averages say it won't happen this year, since it happened last year. Perfect seasons not common place, and don't happen every year. We may not see another one for 10 years, or we may see one next year. I'm saying "not THIS year". We'll just have to wait and see if I'm getting incorrect information from my resources, or if in fact the envelope is correct.

A pitcher can throw a no hitter, and never throw another one again the rest of his career. Multiple no-hitters are rare, kinda like multiple undefeated seasons. UConn has 6. I believe no other women's team has more than 1.

There has been an undefeated champion for 5 of the last 8 years. It's not that rare anymore, especially if you're Connecticut. What separates Connecticut from other top programs is they do not play down to their opponent, nor do they lose to teams they shouldn't. They've had 2 bad losses in the last 9 seasons--St. John's in 2012 and Stanford in 2015. Those are the only times UCONN has lost to a team they were clearly more talented than. Every other loss, UCONN was beat by a team that had the talent to challenge and knock off the Huskies. Using that logic, the only teams left on UCONN's schedule who have comparable talent are Notre Dame, SC, and Maryland.

Notre Dame in an away game is brutal and definitely the toughest challenge. Out of UCONN's last 11 losses, 7 have come at the hands of Notre Dame. Muffett can coach, and UCONN is definitely down a peg in talent which is the perfect opportunity for an Irish upset. That said, the Irish haven't looked as good as they have the last 3-4 seasons, so I wouldn't be surprised if Connecticut comes out and wins relatively handily. The homecourt advantage for ND should be huge, so it really is a toss up.

If UCONN makes it past Notre Dame, they'll have to face Maryland. Maryland is a bit of an unknown since they've played a very cupcake schedule so far. They play Louisville and ASU which should provide a better picture, but if UCONN makes it through DePaul, Texas, Notre Dame and Ohio State and is still undefeated, I think they'll take care of Maryland without a ton of difficulty.

South Carolina--on paper they look good, but UCONN has thoroughly dominated the matchup in the last two meetings. SC has size and can slow down the game, but they couldn't keep up with UCONN the last two times. In both meetings, the Huskies jumped out to 10+ point leads in the first 11 minutes and went on cruise control the rest of the game. They were never threatened since SC plays a slower game and wasn't able to string together enough scores to get back in the game.

If they can get past Notre Dame, I really think UCONN is in the driver's seat to be undefeated going into the NCAA tournament. Whether they'll be able to keep it up and win 6 straight in April remains to be seen, but they have 3 big challenges left before they're in the clear.

 

[j66kicker]

How many times has it been done? The law of averages say it won't happen this year, since it happened last year.

A pitcher can throw a no hitter, and never throw another one again the rest of his career. Multiple no-hitters are rare, kinda like multiple undefeated seasons. UConn has 6. I believe no other women's team has more than 1.

1) The law of averages says what happened last year has no bearing whatsoever on what happens this year.
2) UCONN has 6 which not only defies the odds, it's about as probable as the sun not coming up tomorrow. I don't think mathmatical probability has anything to do with whether or not we go undefeated. I think it's just talent and coaching, mostly coaching. Geno has this figured out and nobody else does. I believe there is more than one team in this year of "parity" which Geno could take and potentially coach to an NC.

 

[Carnac]

There has been an undefeated champion for 5 of the last 8 years. It's not that rare anymore, especially if you're Connecticut. What separates Connecticut from other top programs is they do not play down to their opponent, nor do they lose to teams they shouldn't. They've had 2 bad losses in the last 9 seasons--St. John's in 2012 and Stanford in 2015. Those are the only times UCONN has lost to a team they were clearly more talented than. Every other loss, UCONN was beat by a team that had the talent to challenge and knock off the Huskies. Using that logic, the only teams left on UCONN's schedule who have comparable talent are Notre Dame, SC, and Maryland.

Notre Dame in an away game is brutal and definitely the toughest challenge. Out of UCONN's last 11 losses, 7 have come at the hands of Notre Dame. Muffett can coach, and UCONN is definitely down a peg in talent which is the perfect opportunity for an Irish upset. That said, the Irish haven't looked as good as they have the last 3-4 seasons, so I wouldn't be surprised if Connecticut comes out and wins relatively handily. The homecourt advantage for ND should be huge, so it really is a toss up.

If UCONN makes it past Notre Dame, they'll have to face Maryland. Maryland is a bit of an unknown since they've played a very cupcake schedule so far. They play Louisville and ASU which should provide a better picture, but if UCONN makes it through DePaul, Texas, Notre Dame and Ohio State and is still undefeated, I think they'll take care of Maryland without a ton of difficulty.

South Carolina--on paper they look good, but UCONN has thoroughly dominated the matchup in the last two meetings. SC has size and can slow down the game, but they couldn't keep up with UCONN the last two times. In both meetings, the Huskies jumped out to 10+ point leads in the first 11 minutes and went on cruise control the rest of the game. They were never threatened since SC plays a slower game and wasn't able to string together enough scores to get back in the game.

If they can get past Notre Dame, I really think UCONN is in the driver's seat to be undefeated going into the NCAA tournament. Whether they'll be able to keep it up and win 6 straight in April remains to be seen, but they have 3 big challenges left before they're in the clear.

I sincerely hope you're right. You've made some very salient and thoughtful points and observations, most of which I was conscious of when I made the decision to step out there.
Stranger things have happened. That two point win against Florida State could just as easily been a two point loss. I just can't see THIS team going undefeated. There are those land mines that you mentioned: (Notre Dame, Maryland & South Carolina) on the road to Dallas (site of this year's women's final four) that they'll have to negotiate. Can they win it all? Sure they can.
Hosting the first weekend at Gampel. Then enjoying a short trip south to their home away from home the second weekend in Bridgeport (enjoying a large UConn fan presence at both venues), then on to Dallas. The last 3 games as usual will be the most difficult.

They will make the tournament, most likely a #1 seed. However, If they lose 2 of 3 of these upcoming big games (which I sincerely doubt), they will drop in the rankings. They won't play enough ranked teams after that to move back in to the top four, and for the first time in recent memory, be a #2 seed. They could only hope that teams ranked above them lose some games, and they move back up by default, a scenario they have not had to experience for many years, and I doubt will happen. The point has been belabored many times, that this is not your average UConn team, so we should not expect every game (or this season) to be business as usual. I'm not preaching doom & gloom here, I'm just saying.

In WCBB, size matters, but it didn't help Baylor or South Carolina get to the FF last year. Believe me bballnut90, I would have no problem dining on a course of "chilled crow" if I'm wrong on this one. It would mean another National Championship for UConn. I would consider that a very fair trade off. I'm ALWAYS on board with UConn winning a natty.

 

[Carnac]

1) The law of averages says what happened last year has no bearing whatsoever on what happens this year.
2) UCONN has 6 which not only defies the odds, it's about as probable as the sun not coming up tomorrow. I don't think mathmatical probability has anything to do with whether or not we go undefeated. I think it's just talent and coaching, mostly coaching. Geno has this figured out and nobody else does. I believe there is more than one team in this year of "parity" which Geno could take and potentially coach to an NC.

We disagree. We see things differently. The law of averages does exist. If you choose not to believe it can apply here, I'm OK with that. I stated MY opinion. Everyone has their own independent and personal opinion. While I welcome yours, I stand firmly by my post and it's content.

You have to have a very special team to go undefeated. Baylor had one with Griner. UConn had one with the BIG 3. This UConn team is full of potential, but it's not that kind of special.

This is not the first, nor will it be the last time a poster disagrees with my take. I'd be surprise if someone didn't. Everyone will not see the glass as half full. We'll see which one of us is right at the end of the season. BTW, Unless the rapture comes today, the sun will come up tomorrow.

 

[j66kicker]

We disagree. We see things differently. The law of averages does exist. If you choose not to believe it can apply here, I'm OK with that. I stated MY opinion. Everyone has their own independent and personal opinion. While I welcome yours, I stand firmly by my post and it's content. This is not the first, nor will it be the last time a poster disagrees with my take. I'd be surprise if someone didn't. Everyone will not see the glass as half full. We'll see which one of us is right at the end of the season. BTW, Unless the rapture comes today, the sun will come up tomorrow.

My glass is more than half full. Clearly I think our team has a better chance to go undefeated this year than you do, since you predicted they won't.

Also, there is no statistical law that says if something happened recently then it has a smaller probability of happening again soon (see "Gambler's Fallacy" example Law of averages - Wikipedia). First of all this stuff applies basically to random events (coin toss etc.). If undefeated seasons were random events, then there would be an extremely small probability of the same team doing it 6 times in a small number of years. However, even if this did occur, the probability that that same team would do it again the year following an undefeated season is still exactly the same as it was any other year.

Anyway, my point was, in MY opinion this is not a random, statistically predictable phenomenon. Rather it's manageable and is being manipulated by someone who knows how to do it better than the other coaches. Therefore I think predicting cannot be based on any statistical laws.

 

[CBear01]

and for the first time in recent memory, be a #2 seed.

IIRC we were a #2 seed (maybe even #3?) for the tournament in D's senior year, lost a few games in the season, but ended up the sweetest winners and dual champions in 2004! It wasn't the prettiest season but it was such a pretty ending! See, to me, getting to the end and having a 6 game winning streak at the end of a "questionable" season is so much nicer than wondering if we can go undefeated...again. 6 times is pretty awesome but haven't we had enough pie yet? are we that gluttonous that we need a 7th with this team? just food for thought

 

[Carnac]

IIRC we were a #2 seed (maybe even #3?) for the tournament in D's senior year, lost a few games in the season, but ended up the sweetest winners and dual champions in 2004! It wasn't the prettiest season but it was such a pretty ending! See, to me, getting to the end and having a 6 game winning streak at the end of a "questionable" season is so much nicer than wondering if we can go undefeated...again. 6 times is pretty awesome but haven't we had enough pie yet? are we that gluttonous that we need a 7th with this team? just food for thought

As long as we get in, and we will, what # seed we get will not be that important. We still have to play six games to win it all. I really don't think Geno tor the team cares who they play, or in what order. I completely concur and agree that you don't have to be a #1 seed to win the natty.

 

[bizarro aj]

I think uconn has 2 tough games that could end their streak and that's DePaul and SC. ND has to prove they can hang with uconn without diggins which they have yet to do. Maryland schedules to many cupcakes and you can't get any better doing that. DePaul has Bruno who knows geno the best. If uconn loses to SC i think they win the rematch in the tourney, but i also think if uconn beats SC they lose the rematch in April.

 

[Carnac]

My glass is more than half full. Clearly I think our team has a better chance to go undefeated this year than you do, since you predicted they won't.

Also, there is no statistical law that says if something happened recently then it has a smaller probability of happening again soon (see "Gambler's Fallacy" example Law of averages - Wikipedia). First of all this stuff applies basically to random events (coin toss etc.). If undefeated seasons were random events, then there would be an extremely small probability of the same team doing it 6 times in a small number of years. However, even if this did occur, the probability that that same team would do it again the year following an undefeated season is still exactly the same as it was any other year.

Anyway, my point was, in MY opinion this is not a random, statistically predictable phenomenon. Rather it's manageable and is being manipulated by someone who knows how to do it better than the other coaches. Therefore I think predicting cannot be based on any statistical laws.

OK Kicker, it looks like you want to get technical over a simple harmless prediction that I made. Let's do it.
Point #1: You said: "The probability that that same team would do it again the year following an undefeated season is still exactly the same as it was any other year."
My take on that point: I don't agree. Unless EVERY player from the previous year's team came back, that team IS NOT the same team. Seniors leave, freshmen come in. So that illustration won't fly.
Point 2: The schedules are NOT the same from year to year. NO TEAM plays the exact same schedule every year. Their OOC schedule is different, and the teams they play in the NCAA tournament are different every year.
Here's the logic I used in making my prediction:
Teams entering the tournament unbeaten since 1986 - (30 years)

Of the 16 teams who have entered the tournament unbeaten, 9 went on to win the National Championship.[6]

• In 1986, Texas entered the tournament 30–0, beat USC for the national title, and ended the season 34–0.
• In 1990, Louisiana Tech entered the tournament 29–0, but lost in the Final Four to Auburn.
• In 1992, Vermont entered the tournament 29–0, but lost in the first round to George Washington.
• In 1993, Vermont entered the tournament 28–0, but lost in the first round to Rutgers.
• In 1995, Connecticut entered the tournament 29–0, beat Tennessee for the national title, and ended the season 35–0.
• In 1997, Connecticut entered the tournament 30–0, but lost in the Midwest Regional Final to Tennessee.
• In 1998, Tennessee (33–0) and Liberty (28–0) both entered the tournament unbeaten; Liberty lost in the first round to Tennessee, which went on to beat Louisiana Tech for the national title and ended the season 39–0.
• In 2002, 2009, and 2010, Connecticut entered the tournament 33–0, won the national title in each, and ended those seasons 39–0. They beat Oklahoma, Louisville, and Stanford, respectively.
• In 2012, Baylor entered the tournament 34-0, beat Notre Dame for the national title, and ended the season 40-0. The Lady Bears became the first team in NCAA college basketball history, for either women or men, to win 40 games in a season. Notably, Louisiana Tech went 40-5 during the 1979-80 season. This was during the AIAW era for women's basketball.
• In 2014, Connecticut (34–0) and Notre Dame (32–0) both entered the tournament unbeaten; Connecticut beat Notre Dame 79-58 for the national title, ended the season 40-0 and is the 8th team to end the season unbeaten.
• In 2015, Princeton entered the tournament 30–0, but lost in the second round to Maryland.
• In 2016, Connecticut entered the tournament 32-0, beat Syracuse for the national title to end the season 38-0.

The last NON-UConn team to go all the way was Baylor in 2012, 4 years ago. Before that the last non-UConn team to do it was Tennessee in 1998, 18 years ago. After this year, it will be 19!!!!! I agree it's not random. I could have waited until the first of the year to make a more informed prediction, it would have a lot easier. The games UConn have a good chance of losing would have been behind them, but I didn't. That would have been easy.

Last year's UConn team was special, very special. They won all of the scheduled games. The 2012 Baylor team was special, they too won all of their games. THIS year's UConn team is NOT that kind of special. I don't know how to get that across. They are not as good as last year's team. EVERYBODY knows that. They are not that deep, and they are a young team still looking for leadership from within. They are not a dominant team.

Before the season, most posters, BY commenters and WCBB analysts ALL predicted that UConn would lose a game or two this year. Now, just 4 games into the season, some here in the yard are beginning to back away from their earlier pronouncements. I was one of the ones that thought there was no way THIS team could win them all. I'm standing fast on that thought.
The 2014-2015 UConn team was much better that this year's team, right? They had the BIG 3, plus KML and Kiah Stokes. Well they lost one.

I attended that game in Palo Alto in 2014. If UConn had played Stanford first, then UC Davis, I believe they would have beaten Stanford. UConn had just come from blowing out UC Davis 3 nights before. They were riding high on a sea of unbridled confidence. They had just blown out a team by 50-60 points, and figured that Stanford would not be that much of a problem. They no doubt figured they would just go into to Maples Pavilion, handle their business, and go home. Guess what, crap happened. They were not ready to play Stanford that night, but Stanford was ready to play them. Tara Van Derveer had her girls frothing at the mouth ready to tear in the Huskies. From the tip to the buzzer, they never let up. The tension and fan hype in the arena that night did not come across on TV. You had to be there. The same can happen to this team. It only takes one.

Last year the other 3 #1 seeds all had tickets in hand, room reservations made, and site seeing itineraries planned for their trip to Indianapolis for the final 4, but crap happened. None of them made it. UConn has fallen back towards the pack some. Before it was UConn, a large gap, then everybody else. Not this year. The gap has closed. We'll see just how much in the days and weeks to come.
I understand about us having Geno and they don't. Geno has lost games before, and he'll do it again.

While this team has great potential, they can lose one. Again I remind you, crap happens. It came real close to happening the first game. We can go around and around with this all weekend. Neither one of us is going to budge off of our positions. So we'll just agree to disagree and leave it at that. When UConn loses a game, my point will have been made. If they don't, yours will. I hope my theory is wrong, and they win #12.

 

[Tontobruto]

My glass is more than half full. Clearly I think our team has a better chance to go undefeated this year than you do, since you predicted they won't.

Also, there is no statistical law that says if something happened recently then it has a smaller probability of happening again soon (see "Gambler's Fallacy" example Law of averages - Wikipedia). First of all this stuff applies basically to random events (coin toss etc.). If undefeated seasons were random events, then there would be an extremely small probability of the same team doing it 6 times in a small number of years. However, even if this did occur, the probability that that same team would do it again the year following an undefeated season is still exactly the same as it was any other year.

Anyway, my point was, in MY opinion this is not a random, statistically predictable phenomenon. Rather it's manageable and is being manipulated by someone who knows how to do it better than the other coaches. Therefore I think predicting cannot be based on any statistical laws.

Three points
1) agreed about the Law of Averages, the odds of rolling a 7 are the same with each roll of the dice regardless of previous results
2) competitive sports are full of random events as is war, so that luck can influence results
3) the thrust of the original question was about the probability of an undefeated season, so the use of some elementary math might shed some light on the matter, I doubt that a professional oddsmaker would ignore the math

 

[Carnac]

People, a lot of fans are very tough on our post players for fumbling the passes into the post but please remember that most of these passes are down at knee or ankle level and you can never complete a pass down low, it's too far to reach for a 6'3" to 6'6" big girl! The pass to the post has to be waist, chest or high to jump and use their height! Natalie has gotten some bad revues for passes that a big girl cannot handle, and anything up she catches and attacks! So please before you put grief on a big girl ask yourself WHERE WAS THE PASS!

Post of the day. A very accurate observation here. I was a post player in my day. I wanted the ball exactly where you said. It's hard to bend down a catch an incoming pass at our knees or below, especially if we're moving. Having walked a mile in Nat's sneakers, I'm not one of those throwing rocks.

I've coached players (male & female) that had difficulty in catching inbound passes, especially when moving. People forget, post players are usually fighting off a defender (bumping, pushing back and reaching around you) at the same time you're trying to catch the pass. The good players make it look easy, it's not.

 

[Florida Fan]

Without giving a spoiler alert, I will say that the current results (at 9:40 am) are pretty realistic, rather than pessimistic. While going undefeated would be icing on the cake, it ain't the cake.

The cake is they get better and have fun. But they don't have ND's depth, or SC's height, and now the gamecocks have a shooting guard. And Abby won't be able to do a reverse against some of them. But they have heart and Dangerfield's three big-league assists against Dayton were highlight-reel eligible. They are better now than I thought they'd be, gaining confidence every game. Undefeated no, but in March, very dangerous.

 

[j66kicker]

OK Kicker, it looks like you want to get technical over a simple harmless prediction that I made. Let's do it.
Point #1: You said: "The probability that that same team would do it again the year following an undefeated season is still exactly the same as it was any other year."
My take on that point: I don't agree. Unless EVERY player from the previous year's team came back, that team IS NOT the same team. Seniors leave, freshmen come in. So that illustration won't fly.
Point 2: The schedules are NOT the same from year to year. NO TEAM plays the exact same schedule every year. Their OOC schedule is different, and the teams they play in the NCAA tournament are different every year.
Here's the logic I used in making my prediction:
Teams entering the tournament unbeaten since 1986 - (30 years)

Of the 16 teams who have entered the tournament unbeaten, 9 went on to win the National Championship.[6]

• In 1986, Texas entered the tournament 30–0, beat USC for the national title, and ended the season 34–0.
• In 1990, Louisiana Tech entered the tournament 29–0, but lost in the Final Four to Auburn.
• In 1992, Vermont entered the tournament 29–0, but lost in the first round to George Washington.
• In 1993, Vermont entered the tournament 28–0, but lost in the first round to Rutgers.
• In 1995, Connecticut entered the tournament 29–0, beat Tennessee for the national title, and ended the season 35–0.
• In 1997, Connecticut entered the tournament 30–0, but lost in the Midwest Regional Final to Tennessee.
• In 1998, Tennessee (33–0) and Liberty (28–0) both entered the tournament unbeaten; Liberty lost in the first round to Tennessee, which went on to beat Louisiana Tech for the national title and ended the season 39–0.
• In 2002, 2009, and 2010, Connecticut entered the tournament 33–0, won the national title in each, and ended those seasons 39–0. They beat Oklahoma, Louisville, and Stanford, respectively.
• In 2012, Baylor entered the tournament 34-0, beat Notre Dame for the national title, and ended the season 40-0. The Lady Bears became the first team in NCAA college basketball history, for either women or men, to win 40 games in a season. Notably, Louisiana Tech went 40-5 during the 1979-80 season. This was during the AIAW era for women's basketball.
• In 2014, Connecticut (34–0) and Notre Dame (32–0) both entered the tournament unbeaten; Connecticut beat Notre Dame 79-58 for the national title, ended the season 40-0 and is the 8th team to end the season unbeaten.
• In 2015, Princeton entered the tournament 30–0, but lost in the second round to Maryland.
• In 2016, Connecticut entered the tournament 32-0, beat Syracuse for the national title to end the season 38-0.

The last NON-UConn team to go all the way was Baylor in 2012, 4 years ago. Before that the last non-UConn team to do it was Tennessee in 1998, 18 years ago. After this year, it will be 19!!!!! I agree it's not random. I could have waited until the first of the year to make a more informed prediction, it would have a lot easier. The games UConn have a good chance of losing would have been behind them, but I didn't. That would have been easy.

Last year's UConn team was special, very special. They won all of the scheduled games. The 2012 Baylor team was special, they too won all of their games. THIS year's UConn team is NOT that kind of special. I don't know how to get that across. They are not as good as last year's team. EVERYBODY knows that. They are not that deep, and they are a young team still looking for leadership from within. They are not a dominant team.

Before the season, most posters, BY commenters and WCBB analysts ALL predicted that UConn would lose a game or two this year. Now, just 4 games into the season, some here in the yard are beginning to back away from their earlier pronouncements. I was one of the ones that thought there was no way THIS team could win them all. I'm standing fast on that thought.
The 2014-2015 UConn team was much better that this year's team, right? They had the BIG 3, plus KML and Kiah Stokes. Well they lost one.

I attended that game in Palo Alto in 2014. If UConn had played Stanford first, then UC Davis, I believe they would have beaten Stanford. UConn had just come from blowing out UC Davis 3 nights before. They were riding high on a sea of unbridled confidence. They had just blown out a team by 50-60 points, and figured that Stanford would not be that much of a problem. They no doubt figured they would just go into to Maples Pavilion, handle their business, and go home. Guess what, crap happened. They were not ready to play Stanford that night, but Stanford was ready to play them. Tara Van Derveer had her girls frothing at the mouth ready to tear in the Huskies. From the tip to the buzzer, they never let up. The tension and fan hype in the arena that night did not come across on TV. You had to be there. The same can happen to this team. It only takes one.

Last year the other 3 #1 seeds all had tickets in hand, room reservations made, and site seeing itineraries planned for their trip to Indianapolis for the final 4, but crap happened. None of them made it. UConn has fallen back towards the pack some. Before it was UConn, a large gap, then everybody else. Not this year. The gap has closed. We'll see just how much in the days and weeks to come.
I understand about us having Geno and they don't. Geno has lost games before, and he'll do it again.

While this team has great potential, they can lose one. Again I remind you, crap happens. It came real close to happening the first game. We can go around and around with this all weekend. Neither one of us is going to budge off of our positions. So we'll just agree to disagree and leave it at that. When UConn loses a game, my point will have been made. If they don't, yours will. I hope my theory is wrong, and they win #12.

You make many valid points and I do agree with most of them. Just not that the "law of averages" or what happened last year has anything to do with our chances to go undefeated this year. I'm good to agree to disagree - carry on...

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

We are not fully together yet but every game they are getting better defensively and offensively, offensively we have 5 scorers capable of scoring double digits so I don't know how were limited offensively. the offensive scheme is coming together just fine and when the figure it out you better look out they are going to be hard to stop.

SCspur- - - You state SoCar has 5 players capable of scoring in double figures, but that is vs the usual WBB defense, not the type of defense that UCONN brings to the table night in and night out! Even with the Big 3 gone the Huskies defense is rounding into the defense that us BYers have come to love! Holding teams to between 40 and 55 points, and since our offense has those 5 players that CAN usually score in double figures it looks like a long unsuccessful night for the opposition!
That is what most fans of opponents always forgets, that their teams usual performance is not the performance they can give vs the Huskies stifling defense!

 

[DaddyChoc]

There has been an undefeated champion for 5 of the last 8 years. It's not that rare anymore, especially if you're Connecticut. What separates Connecticut from other top programs is they do not play down to their opponent, nor do they lose to teams they shouldn't. They've had 2 bad losses in the last 9 seasons--St. John's in 2012 and Stanford in 2015. Those are the only times UCONN has lost to a team they were clearly more talented than. Every other loss, UCONN was beat by a team that had the talent to challenge and knock off the Huskies. Using that logic, the only teams left on UCONN's schedule who have comparable talent are Notre Dame, SC, and Maryland.

Notre Dame in an away game is brutal and definitely the toughest challenge. Out of UCONN's last 11 losses, 7 have come at the hands of Notre Dame. Muffett can coach, and UCONN is definitely down a peg in talent which is the perfect opportunity for an Irish upset. That said, the Irish haven't looked as good as they have the last 3-4 seasons, so I wouldn't be surprised if Connecticut comes out and wins relatively handily. The homecourt advantage for ND should be huge, so it really is a toss up.

If UCONN makes it past Notre Dame, they'll have to face Maryland. Maryland is a bit of an unknown since they've played a very cupcake schedule so far. They play Louisville and ASU which should provide a better picture, but if UCONN makes it through DePaul, Texas, Notre Dame and Ohio State and is still undefeated, I think they'll take care of Maryland without a ton of difficulty.

South Carolina--on paper they look good, but UCONN has thoroughly dominated the matchup in the last two meetings. SC has size and can slow down the game, but they couldn't keep up with UCONN the last two times. In both meetings, the Huskies jumped out to 10+ point leads in the first 11 minutes and went on cruise control the rest of the game. They were never threatened since SC plays a slower game and wasn't able to string together enough scores to get back in the game.

If they can get past Notre Dame, I really think UCONN is in the driver's seat to be undefeated going into the NCAA tournament. Whether they'll be able to keep it up and win 6 straight in April remains to be seen, but they have 3 big challenges left before they're in the clear.

damn you know more about UConn WBB History than most UConn fans... you are now a honorary Boneyard Poster

 

[Buzzyboy]

Buzzyboy- - - Nurse has shown in the past both with UCONN and the Canadian team that she is an offensive threat. IMHO she is trying too hard to be Stewie, MoJeff & Morgan in one package, instead of just being Kia Nurse! The last couple games since her talk with Geno in his office she has shown to be more relaxed and letting the game come to her! I have faith that slowly but surely her offense will join her defense as first rate!
Gabby, Saniya, Nurse, Collier and Katie Lou have been starters so far this season so Gabby wouldn't be coming in for Kia. Crystal Dangerfield comes off the bench for Saniya to add speed to the offense! UCONN needs Kia to play large amount of minutes for her defensive skills, as her offense comes back!

I don't agree that she's MUCH of an offensive threat. Maybe in international games where she can be overtly physical she could be a threat primarily because of her physicality but her shooting stroke is mediocre (I'm being kind) at best and though she may have a moment or two, here and there, she's pretty much on the low end of the totem pole insofar as a scorer.

 

[Buzzyboy]

SCspur- - - You state SoCar has 5 players capable of scoring in double figures, but that is vs the usual WBB defense, not the type of defense that UCONN brings to the table night in and night out! Even with the Big 3 gone the Huskies defense is rounding into the defense that us BYers have come to love! Holding teams to between 40 and 55 points, and since our offense has those 5 players that CAN usually score in double figures it looks like a long unsuccessful night for the opposition!
That is what most fans of opponents always forgets, that their teams usual performance is not the performance they can give vs the Huskies stifling defense!

I've even seen a number of times where SC has been pretty ugly offensively against teams that I would consider anything but stellar defensively. One of the most putrid exhibitions of scoring I ever saw was a couple of years back when SC played Duke and won in the last few seconds something like 52-50 where they scored eight or ten points in the last minute primarily based on some luck and some horrid defense by the Blue Devils at the end.

 

[Buzzyboy]

A loss at the right time during the season is not necessarily a bad thing, or a death knell. Two of the hardest things in sports is to throw a perfect game in baseball, and play an entire season in college basketball (men or women at any level), and win every game. They're both possible, but highly improbable. To go undefeated, you can't have any bad or "off" days. No injuries to key players. For a prefect game, you can't make any bad or "mistake" pitches. Your control like your concentration that day must be "perfect".

I said (posted) at the time of UConn's loss to Stanford (2nd game of the season - 2 years ago this month), that it was the best thing that could have happened to them. It caused them to re-focus on what they were doing/needed to do, exposed some deficiencies in the starting lineup, and made them play every game with a renewed sense resolve and urgency. It provided the fuel they needed to win their 10th NC.

That loss made them realize that they were not invincible, they could be beat (a very sobering thought). The loss served them well the remainder of the season. If you're going to lose a game, you want it to be early in the season. That way, you can learn from it, make adjustments if necessary and build on it. The last thing you want to do is lose in the tournament. A tournament loss, no matter when it comes, is a loss that lingers all summer long, especially if you're a high seed.

It's tough to win if you have an off night but that's only when your off night is on both sides of the ball and rarely does UConn have an off night on the defensive end of the court. That's where they can compensate for an awful night of shooting like they did when they played Stanford with Maya and only scored 12 points in the first half and still won the game because of their stellar defense. UConn consistently is the best or at least in the top few best defensive teams in the country and it's that tenaciousness that's won them a great deal of their eleven championships. It's always nice when you are pretty darn good on the offensive end, as well.

 

[Buzzyboy]

If those hard games the team is about to play in December would have been in February/march I would have felt better about the chances of going un defeated but it's hard for me to believe that this young team as good as they were playing till now will be able to it at this point. I see them loosing to ND, Maryland and SC. I hope they prove me wrong !!!

Wow, you have them losing to all three teams????? I would say that odds of that happening are crazy high. I think I'd say at least 200-1 unless something absolutely dreadful happens, like a major injury to a couple of starters.