What's the likelihood of going undefeated? | The Boneyard

What's the likelihood of going undefeated?

What's the likelihood of another undefeated season?

  • 100%

    Votes: 8 4.7%
  • 80%

    Votes: 33 19.2%
  • 60%

    Votes: 21 12.2%
  • 40%

    Votes: 34 19.8%
  • 20%

    Votes: 41 23.8%
  • 0%

    Votes: 35 20.3%

  • Total voters
    172
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bballnut90

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I know everyone will get mad at me for asking this question, so please refrain from negative comments in that regard....but after watching the first several games of the year, I think it's definitely plausible. Talent wise, I don't think there's a team that has better talent than Connecticut with the exception being potentially South Carolina. You have:

Williams/Collier-extremely athletic forwards who can defend multiple positions, score from 3 point land, mid ranger and in the paid, both rebound well and both are equally comfortable being scorers or role players.

Chong/Dangerfield-one of the better point guard combos in the nation. Dangerfield is one of the better freshman point guards we've seen in a while. She looks so steady and confident out there. Always under control, a capable scorer, can run the offense and beat you off the dribble. She looks like Jefferson as a seasoned sophomore. Chong isn't quite as dynamic as Dangerfield, but she is quietly very very good. They make a great 1-2 punch.

KLS-one of the better forwards in the nation. A great shooter who looks confident and aggressive this year. Averaging 22 a game.

Natalie Butler-a blue collar big player who can hit shots inside, fights for rebounds and is physical. Adds a different dimension off the bench. She isn't a go to player, but she plays her role well.

Nurse-A bit underwhelmed by her to start the year, but she brings physical play and toughness. I expect she'll pick up her shooting as the season goes on. At least she isn't jacking up bad shots, she's just missing good looks.

Besides SC, no other team has a lineup quite like UCONN's where there are 4 players who could easily lead team in scoring night in night now. Most importantly, UOCNN plays really cohesive basketball together. In 3/4 games they've had a positive A/TO ratio, including both wins against a highly ranked team. They shoot well and play hard 100% of the time. Defensively, they aren't great but they'll improve as the year goes on. On an off day, I think there are only a few teams that can hang with or beat UCONN.

Looking at the schedule, the only teams left with talent to compete with UCONN are:
Texas (H)....they have talent but they just don't appear to be a good team. I don't see them hanging within 15 of UCONN.


Notre Dame (A)...definitely a game UCONN could lose. Ogunbowale is one of the best guards in the nation, Allen might be the best point guard in the nation, and everyone in the lineup can score. If ND shoots well from deep, it'll be a tough win for UCONN.

Ohio State (H)....I don't see it happening. Ohio State doesn't play well enough as a team to hang with UCONN IMO. And the game is in Connecticut.

Maryland (A)...another game that could be lost. Maryland is quite good and they have one of their best rosters this year. I don't think they'll upset UCONN because they don't defend particularly well, but it could be a tight game.

South Carolina (H)....definitely a game that UCONN could lose. SC has 4 outstanding scorers, each of whom can create matchup problems for Connecticut. They also play great defense. However, SC is traditionally a bad offensive team. They have more weapons this year, but if they struggle to score against Connecticut, they wont win.

If UCONN can get past those big 3, they'll be undefeated entering the NCAA tournament, and will likely waltz to the Final Four in typical UCONN fashion. At the Final Four, anything could happen this year with the talent spread, but I'd still bet on UCONN to win.

I'd put the odds right now at about 40%. It may seem high, but UCONN has lost one game in the last 3 years and this team looks good. You have Geno running the show, and no one else in WCBB has looked all that amazing to start the year. Teams will improve as the year goes on, but UCONN will too, and the Huskies have as much upside as anyone considering they are still figuring out roles and systems without Tuck/Jefferson/Stewart. I think Notre Dame is the biggest hurdle. If they can knock off Notre Dame, odds jump up to 60-70% in my book.
 

Carnac

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A loss at the right time during the season is not necessarily a bad thing, or a death knell. Two of the hardest things in sports is to throw a perfect game in baseball, and play an entire season in college basketball (men or women at any level), and win every game. They're both possible, but highly improbable. To go undefeated, you can't have any bad or "off" days. No injuries to key players. For a prefect game, you can't make any bad or "mistake" pitches. Your control like your concentration that day must be "perfect".

I said (posted) at the time of UConn's loss to Stanford (2nd game of the season - 2 years ago this month), that it was the best thing that could have happened to them. It caused them to re-focus on what they were doing/needed to do, exposed some deficiencies in the starting lineup, and made them play every game with a renewed sense resolve and urgency. It provided the fuel they needed to win their 10th NC.

That loss made them realize that they were not invincible, they could be beat (a very sobering thought). The loss served them well the remainder of the season. If you're going to lose a game, you want it to be early in the season. That way, you can learn from it, make adjustments if necessary and build on it. The last thing you want to do is lose in the tournament. A tournament loss, no matter when it comes, is a loss that lingers all summer long, especially if you're a high seed. :(
 

Carnac

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I voted 60%.....

I agree with the ND, Maryland and SC games being the 3 toughest.

Win or lose, the Huskies will be a different team after playing those games. Iron sharpens iron. Right now, those games loom large on the horizon, but so did Baylor. Geno and staff will have the girls ready to play.
They always do.

It will be interesting to see the betting line on those games. Another poster wrote that Las Vegas had UConn going in as a minus 5.5 favorite. :eek: They obviously knew what they were doing. UConn covered the spread. :cool:
 
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I would be thrilled to see us close out the season with a 6-game winning streak. ;-) Between now and then is crazy fun. One tenth of the season is over.
 
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I said 40%. When you're five times as good as the others like last year you're going to go undefeated.
But even if we're twice as good like this year (hmm.) the odds eventually catch up with you. Not necessarily ND, or MD, just the laws of probability.
 
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If every team on UCONN's schedule had to pick one game they would likely lose..... who do you think they would pick? Then let's make it so! Undefeated season coming right up.
 
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Optimistically I would say the odds are approximately 60% vs. ND (remember it's away and they must be desperate to beat UConn this year), 70% vs MD (I don't think they're at the same level as SC or ND but it's a road game, and we struggled against them last year), 70% vs. SC (home game but it looks like Davis and Gray are big pickups and Cuevas's numbers look good so far. agree with those who say SC may be the best of the rest). I'll say 90% that we make it to F4, 70% in each game of the F4. Then 90% that we win all games other than those mentioned.

That translates into around 10%. And I think that's optimistic. 2% or 3% may be more realistic. I love this team, but I think less than 2 losses is very unlikely.
 
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If UConn goes undefeated this season I'll walk on my tippy-toes from the XL Center to Gampel wearing only a Tutu
Do we have to make arrangements with the State Police for you to do that/??? I think the commission on Purity of Thought and Actions may complain about the Tutu. You Ballet type are always looking for an excuse to walk on your toes!!
 
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Well, the only 2 possibilities are 100 or 0%. Based on results so far this season, 100% is the correct answer. Lets roll - right Kib? And eternal thanks to Todd Beamer on this Thanksgiving morning.
 
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Without giving a spoiler alert, I will say that the current results (at 9:40 am) are pretty realistic, rather than pessimistic. While going undefeated would be icing on the cake, it ain't the cake.
 
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If Uconn is undefeated after the Maryland game then 91 becomes very interesting.Until then there are just too many tough teams to bob and weave through.Before the season began i would have said they had 2 chances to surpass 90,slim and none and slim is leaving town.Now i would eliminate none and slim is looking back over his shoulder.
 
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Well, the only 2 possibilities are 100 or 0%. Based on results so far this season, 100% is the correct answer. Lets roll - right Kib? And eternal thanks to Todd Beamer on this Thanksgiving morning.
Using the logic of two results and one has to happen then that makes it a 50% chance they will be undefeated and 50% they will have a lose. :D
 
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Optimistically I would say the odds are approximately 60% vs. ND (remember it's away and they must be desperate to beat UConn this year), 70% vs MD (I don't think they're at the same level as SC or ND but it's a road game, and we struggled against them last year), 70% vs. SC (home game but it looks like Davis and Gray are big pickups and Cuevas's numbers look good so far. agree with those who say SC may be the best of the rest). I'll say 90% that we make it to F4, 70% in each game of the F4. Then 90% that we win all games other than those mentioned.

That translates into around 10%. And I think that's optimistic. 2% or 3% may be more realistic. I love this team, but I think less than 2 losses is very unlikely.
upload_2016-11-24_9-50-15.png


Your math is right, and it would be crazy to bet against those odds. But what were the odds they'd win 4 straight NCs? I think it's more about just going out there and doing it. More "under their control" than just probability.
 
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