What will HBO do with GOT?

[nelsonmuntz]

Their hit series is going to run into serious problems in about 2 years. This season will finish off book 3. Book 4 was a mess, and I don't think there is enough content in that book to support a full season. If you combine books 4 and 5, you could get 2 seasons out of them, which means HBO is out of things to put on TV by June 2016. Martin is no where near publishing Winds of Winter, so the best realistic release date is Christmas 2014, more likely early 2015. That could get HBO another year, maybe year and a half, of material.

That means Martin would have to have the final volume done by 2017 in order to get it rewritten for the small screen for 2018, and that is not going to happen. Maybe if HBO really stretches things out they can buy themselves another year, although they have to be very careful. The adaptation has worked to date because there is a lot of stuff going on in the books to work with. Book 4 is really slow, and a lot of characters just thinking to themselves for dozens and even hundreds of pages. That isn't going to translate well to TV. There is also a natural lifespan for a drama series of 7-9 years, so HBO can't drag their feet too much.

There is going to be a book written someday about the behind the scenes aspects of this show. One of the most successful shows on television could end in a major crash and even litigation, and we can see it coming years in advance.

 

[SubbaBub]

There is enough material left in books 3, 4, and 5 to fill six more seasons if they choose to do that.
Since books 4 and 5 cover the same time period I believe they are taking from both for TV.

My hunch is that Martin will screw up the last book that the TV series will diverge from the books in seasons 6-7+ if they carry on that far.

Or, Martin will finish the last two books and the last TV season will combine what's left of the main story lines in whatever season turns out to be the last.

 

[MilliniumPrince]

Or HBO will buy the rights from him and hire a team of writers to finish the story/show the way they want to. This will almost certainly ruin the story, but I am sure that option is on the table.

But I agree with Subba, from what I have seen there is enough left in the remaining books to stretch it out for a while. Hell, they are only doing 13 episodes a season I believe.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Or HBO will buy the rights from him and hire a team of writers to finish the story/show the way they want to. This will almost certainly ruin the story, but I am sure that option is on the table.

But I agree with Subba, from what I have seen there is enough left in the remaining books to stretch it out for a while. Hell, they are only doing 13 episodes a season I believe.

From what I have read, HBO required Martin to outline the final 3 books before they would start production. A Dance With Dragons was released right after the first season. HBO is not going to buy anything, they have the right to finish the series without Martin, but you would expect fans to get very upset, particularly if Martin decides to go in a different direction from his outline when (if) he finishes the books.

My point about a drama series having a 7 to 9 year run is true though. I can not point to many good drama series that went longer. Law and Order is an exception, but that was not a series so much as a series of self contained hour long mini-movies.

The series is about 2/3's of the way through book 3. The last 1/3 of book 3 will be this season. Not much happens in Book 4, so the producers will have to combine it with Book 5 and probably make it into 2 or 2.5 seasons. I predict Martin will get Winds of Winter out by next season, but the last book is probably at least 4 years away after that. At best, HBO will have to start running things in the show from a partially written, unreleased book. At worst, Martin doesn't release WoW for 18 months, then is no where near done with the last book when HBO runs out of material and starts using his outlines without his cooperation.

This could be very interesting.

 

[tdrink]

I was reading an interview with the guy who plays Bronn and he said the upcoming season will diverge from the books.

The window for this show might start to close even earlier. A lot of TV viewers expect a bit of instant karma in what they watch and might start to tune out when their favorite characters get killed off and the hated characters win. When there is payback, it is not enjoyable ( I didn't think there was any way I could feel bad for Theon Greyjoy.)

That is where the thematic content is: There is no right and wrong, but there is good and evil.

 

[junglehusky]

Speaking of Bronn... here he is singing a cheesy version of Up on the Roof (?!?!?!?)

 

[nelsonmuntz]

That was unexpected.

 

[Cheddie]

Despite its costs, GOT is gold to HBO, even surpassing the Sopranos now. It owns rather than licences the series. With international sales (booming thanks to the show), DVD sales and inevitably a future release to NetFlix/Amazon, it will continue to be a huge revenue stream. HBO; Benioff and Weiss; and Martin will figure out a way to keep the spigot open as long as interest is there.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Despite its costs, GOT is gold to HBO, even surpassing the Sopranos now. It owns rather than licences the series. With international sales (booming thanks to the show), DVD sales and inevitably a future release to NetFlix/Amazon, it will continue to be a huge revenue stream. HBO; Benioff and Weiss; and Martin will figure out a way to keep the spigot open as long as interest is there.

That isn't how a series works though. A producer can't just choose to keep a show on indefinitely. A show has a lifespan, and as that lifespan nears its end, interest wanes and it loses viewers, usually while costs continue to go up because now the cast members are all big stars. Even the Simpsons has run into this problem. The cast of Friends made $20MM a piece the final couple of years, and the cast of Seinfeld made even more. Artistically, Friends, Seinfeld and Cheers went out in their prime, but other top series stretched it out too far. ER was a powerhouse for NBC for almost 15 years, could get virtually any guest star it wanted and it turned George Clooney from a recurring character on the cheesy Facts of Life into the biggest star on the planet, while also making Julianna Margulies the most bankable actress on TV. It faded badly at the end though.

There is a lot working against a 10+ year run for GoT. First of all, a lot of the key actors/actresses are kids. So far they have avoided the Tina Yothers landmine, where a cute kid becomes a very awkward looking teen, although they have at least one actor going the other direction. The actor that plays Bran is like 5'10 already, and I would not be surprised if he has grown a foot since the filming of the first year. That character is supposed to be carried around for the next 6 season? I have said before that I think they will need to recast the character, because the actor is too big and I am a little surprised that he is not getting tween made-for-Nick/Disney movies thrown at him with his looks. Arya can keep being Arya, and Sansa is fine too. Natalie Dormer is already up there in years, how much longer can she play someone that is supposed to be 18 or 20? What is the actor that plays Tommen going to look like in 6-7 years?

I don't see Peter Dinklage going anywhere, but a few of these actors, particularly Emilia Clarke and Nickolaj-Coster Waldau, are one movie role away from being unaffordable. Maybe that is Martin/Benioff's master plan. Any actor that looks like they are going to bolt will just be written out of Winds of Winter.

 

[ZooCougar]

Great TV shows never last forever. Even the Sopranos had some crappy seasons.

Recasting isn't a show stopper, but I would prefer it if the stepped up the velocity in which they film these to keep it consistent.

Taking a year off to let the books catch up isn't a death sentence either. Mad Men had to basically take a year off.

Honestly, I didn't enjoy last season all that much. Except for the shocker at the end, it didn't seem as engaging.

 

[ZooCougar]

Despite its costs, GOT is gold to HBO, even surpassing the Sopranos now. It owns rather than licences the series. With international sales (booming thanks to the show), DVD sales and inevitably a future release to NetFlix/Amazon, it will continue to be a huge revenue stream. HBO; Benioff and Weiss; and Martin will figure out a way to keep the spigot open as long as interest is there.

Plus all of the merchandising.

 

[Cheddie]

The cast of Friends made $20MM a piece the final couple of years, and the cast of Seinfeld made even more.

I don't see Peter Dinklage going anywhere, but a few of these actors, particularly Emilia Clarke and Nickolaj-Coster Waldau, are one movie role away from being unaffordable.

The cast of Friends and Seinfeld were never in danger of being beheaded.

I was just suggesting, that with the stakes involved, everyone involved will do their very best to try to keep it going, even if they have to realllllllllllyyyyyyyy stretch the material. Walking Dead actually walks a similar tightrope - using existing material, but adapting it for TV.

I have no idea what the books hold in store for Tyrion, but Dinklage was reported this week to be the possible lead in a new HBO series "The Beasts Of Valhalla." Clarke had the time, in any event, to star in a Broadway show. Kit Harington is starring in Pompeii. Certainly possible to do both GOT and other work. Any star thinking of jumping ship should talk to Dan Stevens.

 

[BUHusky]

Not to get all morbid, but the health of GRRM is pretty worrisome. He's a 65 year old with a serious weight problem. It's no guarantee he'll even be around to finish the 7th book... I know I read somewhere that he will not give the rights of the series to anyone else to finish should be not be able to, so take that for what it's worth.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Not to get super-morbid, but with the rate of Martin's writing, a sudden cardiac arrest could enable HBO to avoid some ugliness down the road. I think most people following this situation believe that Martin will not finish the 7th book by the time the show catches up, if ever, and there could be a spat when that event occurs if HBO and Martin have creative differences about what to do next. Also, A Feast For Crows kind of sucked, and while A Dance With Dragons got the series back on track, there is no guarantee that Martin won't spit out another stinker since he is clearly capable of doing so.

All that would get avoided with a Martin demise. HBO would control the creative content of the show, and would have Martin's outline for the last two (or one, depending on when the unfortunate event happened) books to work with. The show could make the final seasons a tribute to Martin, and would be the only outlet for fans of the books to finish the series.

Until then, HBO can continue to hope that not only does Martin finish the books, but that they are as good as the previous volumes.

I know people in a civilized society do not think this way, but I suspect a kernel of this thought has entered the mind of a few people at HBO.

As an unrelated aside, there is a Wall Street Journal story from a few years back that illustrated how much more the Michael Jackson financial empire was worth with Michael dead instead of alive, to EVERYONE around him. I am not saying there was foul play, but the numbers were staggering and a lot of people benefited financial from the end of the King of Pop. It definitely makes you think.

 

[Cheddie]

As an unrelated aside, there is a Wall Street Journal story from a few years back that illustrated how much more the Michael Jackson financial empire was worth with Michael dead instead of alive, to EVERYONE around him. I am not saying there was foul play, but the numbers were staggering and a lot of people benefited financial from the end of the King of Pop. It definitely makes you think.

Continuing on the unrelated note for one response ... my wife just had a colonoscopy and even the nurse referred to propofol, her sedative, as the "Michael Jackson" drug. I chatted with her a bit about it. Jackson was being administered tremendous doses, especially outside a hospital setting.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Continuing on the unrelated note for one response ... my wife just had a colonoscopy and even the nurse referred to propofol, her sedative, as the "Michael Jackson" drug. I chatted with her a bit about it. Jackson was being administered tremendous doses, especially outside a hospital setting.

Jackson was spending something like $40MM a year more than he was taking in at the end, and was going to have nothing within 10 years. His increasingly erratic behavior was putting his record sales in jeopardy, so the studios weren't happy, and the hedge funds that had secured his assets were not happy with the burn rate or the fact that he still had control of the assets they had secured. All those problems were "solved" by Jackson's unexpected demise from massive doses of a sedative. Interesting.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

http://tvline.com/2014/03/12/game-of-thrones-ending-season-7-final/

It looks like we have our answer for Game of Thrones. 7 seasons. They must be getting into the beginning of books 4 and 5 this season, wrap up 4/5 next season, and then have one season each for 6 and for 7.