What is the end game? | Page 4 | The Boneyard

What is the end game?

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A day doesn't pass that remembering the headline "Louisville has accepted offer to join ACC" doesn't haunt me.

This totally misses the point of what's going on in this parallel universe whereby B1G is renegotiating into a $40m (doubling per school) new contract.

When the SEC and the B1G are hugely more revenue per school - due to these network pushes and greater longterm contracts, the ACC and the B12 (in particular) is far less stable. In fact, there is a real chance that major components (Universities) jump for the extra cash.\

Why would the B1G expand? It is not just the cutting of shares that we watch. Everytime they have the shot at new markets and new buzz, their contract has opened up and they are far better off. That's not been true for the ones the ACC took. Yes ... I can see a National network and divisions and a wide wide series of TV/Streaming entertainment revenue sources. The B1G expands because they keep raising greater revenue and markets. Like all cartels, this one fails because eventually someone has the leverage to upset the balance.
 
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Flug seems to have it right. The Big Ten takes their money and sees where the industry is in 6-7 years and when the time comes they can pick the schools they want.

Maybe the Big 12 expands - but I doubt it - it's pointless.

Definitely not pointless for the Big 12 to expand if they can go east and convert the LHN to a Big 12N. Even if it's only for 5 years, why would you want to make $20M per year when you could be making $25-30M?
 
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Definitely not pointless for the Big 12 to expand if they can go east and convert the LHN to a Big 12N. Even if it's only for 5 years, why would you want to make $20M per year when you could be making $25-30M?

Because any expansion & B12N will require an extension of the GOR which OK & possibly KU will not want to sign
 

whaler11

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Definitely not pointless for the Big 12 to expand if they can go east and convert the LHN to a Big 12N. Even if it's only for 5 years, why would you want to make $20M per year when you could be making $25-30M?

The Big 12 network is going to throw off 5-10 million per team - so 5-10x more than the PAC 12 network and as much as the BTN?

Not a chance.
 
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The Big 12 network is going to throw off 5-10 million per team - so 5-10x more than the PAC 12 network and as much as the BTN?

Not a chance.

Additional $10 million a year per school is probably way too high, but $5 million isn't inconceivable considering the value of a network and subsequent revenue earned surrounding a league title game.
 
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The Big12 should take a page out of the BIG's playbook.

Assuming the Big12 can negotiate with UT to convert the LHN to the Big12 network (big assumption) they expand now with the best possible candidates (UConn/Cincy.) In the next 6 years they build up the B12 network. By the time the GORs expire in the ACC in 2024 the Big12 has a profitable functioning network to attract ACC teams.

IMO the BIG took Rutgers/Maryland in order to increase their financial payout and eventually attract the ACC/Big12 programs the BIG truly covets. However, the BIG cannot take all the valuable ACC teams and, if the Big12 build a network, there is no reason they could not attract teams like FSU, Clemson, Miami, Louisville, etc in 2024...In this regard the Big12 needs to view UConn/Cincy in the same manner the BIG viewed Maryland/Rutgers....it is the jab that sets up the power punch.

The ACC is likely not getting a network. The Big12 may still have a chance. Sure, the Big12 may lose OU/KU in 2024 but if they brought in some power programs out of the ACC the Big12 could still flourish. However, the only chance the Big12 has to recruit ACC teams is to show them the money which requires a network. A Big12 network requires expansion.

The wildcard is UT. How do you financially incentivize them to convert the LHN or to not run to the BIG/PAC?
 

whaler11

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Additional $10 million a year per school is probably way too high, but $5 million isn't inconceivable considering the value of a network and subsequent revenue earned surrounding a league title game.

It's 5x more than the PAC 12 and only 3 million less than the BTN estimates.... and has nowhere near the demand.
 
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Except college football is not the nfl. 10 years from now a mls game will score a higher rating nationally. I consider myself a huge sports fan. Outside of UConn, I barely watch college games. I won't tune in to Fox to watch Ohio state vs Michigan. I won't tune in for Indiana vs Michigan state. I simply don't care. 95% of America will agree.

I am with you. I could careless when other schools are playing. I only watch when UCONN is playing someone. I could careless if Ohio St is playing Michigan. If UCONN is in the B1G, then I would pay attention to other B1G games since they could affect UCONN's standing in the conference. I used to watch other BE teams when UCONN played in the BE. Now, I simply don't care about those schools at all.

Right now, UCONN opponents in the AAC suck. I certainly don't look forward to games against Tulane like I used to vs. games against RU. The longer UCONN is stuck in the AAC, the more I can see more fans feeling like I do now. Sadly, that's the new reality for UCONN.
 

hardcorehusky

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I don't see this as the doomsday scenario. Let's say Oklahoma goes to the Big 10 without being AAU. Where does that put UCONN?

It makes sense for the Big 12 to stay together and maximize profits because if OU goes- there goes some of the negotiation power.

Also, if I don't care about the Big 10, I won't watch it. Delaney et al need to expand to keep things fresh or the dollars go backwards.

Nothing has changed - if the Big 12 does not expand with us soon, then the train stops again in 2024. Just because the Big 10 hit the jackpot today just means good for them - nothing else.

And if we are stuck in the ACC- we will have a much better contract in a few years. Aresco took exposure over dollars to set up the next contract.

And by the way, on the 6 year contracts - that seems to be the magic number for networks and leagues- NBC wrapped up the English Premier League for 6 years. It's a number that everyone seems comfortable with where there is enough time to grow viewership, etc.
 

The Funster

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I don't think the B1G is taking anyone that isn't AAU. I think Delany wants to build an elite academic and athletic conference.
 
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Cincinnati couldn't get a Big 12 Network on basic cable in Ohio. No one in Ohio gives two ts about UC outside of those affiliated with UC.
Not so different from bcu, except no one anywhere gives two ts about bcu outside of the few affiliated with bcu.
 

nelsonmuntz

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Why is the Big 10 (and SEC) worth so much more than every other league? Are their apples to apples ratings to support that gap?
 

Dooley

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Why is the Big 10 (and SEC) worth so much more than every other league? Are their apples to apples ratings to support that gap?

Great question and one we should all ask. There isn't an available calculator, abacus, function, formula or block set that can definitely show me why UConn is valued at $2M/yr and Rutgers, Iowa, Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota, and Maryland are valued at $50M/yr. I don't care how long they've been playing football. I don't care that they are AAU (we are talking sports TV contracts, not research dollars anyway). I don't care if their states are larger than Connecticut. None of those athletic departments are 25x more valuable than UConn. I'm not saying this to stir up an argument with our B1G visitors. I'm just saying that there is no logical explanation that can be made to me to explain why those schools have been added to or grandfathered into a league that will pay them more money on a TV deal by the end of January than what we will get over the course of an entire year.
 
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Great question and one we should all ask. There isn't an available calculator, abacus, function, formula or block set that can definitely show me why UConn is valued at $2M/yr and Rutgers, Iowa, Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota, and Maryland are valued at $50M/yr. I don't care how long they've been playing football. I don't care that they are AAU (we are talking sports TV contracts, not research dollars anyway). I don't care if their states are larger than Connecticut. None of those athletic departments are 25x more valuable than UConn. I'm not saying this to stir up an argument with our B1G visitors. I'm just saying that there is no logical explanation that can be made to me to explain why those schools have been added to or grandfathered into a league that will pay them more money on a TV deal by the end of January than what we will get over the course of an entire year.

No argument from me. I doubt there is any metric that can be produced that would demonstrate how individually Purdue, Vanderbilt or any team is worth 25x more than what UCONN is worth. Its not realistic. That said in the cases of The B1G and SEC the real value is in the whole over the sum of their parts. UCONN has no such luxury being paired with 11 teams that likely carry less individual value than themselves.
 

hardcorehusky

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There is no end game here. It is each conference for themselves with a cartel for the first 5. ESPN and its greed started this and now it is up to each conference to figure out its best path moving forward. None of the money makes any sense. The NCAA doesn't make sense. Logic doesn't apply to conference realignment.
 

Dooley

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No argument from me. I doubt there is any metric that can be produced that would demonstrate how individually Purdue, Vanderbilt or any team is worth 25x more than what UCONN is worth. Its not realistic. That said in the cases of The B1G and SEC the real value is in the whole over the sum of their parts. UCONN has no such luxury being paired with 11 teams that likely carry less individual value than themselves.

Ultimately, this is probably the reason. The huge fanbases of Michigan, OSU, Nebraska, Penn State, etc elevate the lower half of the conference to its new stratosphere. Ditto in the SEC. Alabama, LSU, Georgia, etc elevate Vanderbilt to being 20x more valuable than UConn. Can you imagine if all of the heavyweights just decided to join together into a mega, super, uber conference? Take the top heavyweights from each conference and form a college Premier League. Each school would probably command over $100M/yr from TV alone. Probably much more since there are no conference also-rans and deadweights to lower the value of the conference.

In any event, it's no less frustrating to us UConn fans to see all of these power schools valued at 10x, 15x, and now 25x more than UConn when there is absolutely zero logic to explain it in apples-to-apples terms.
 

nelsonmuntz

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Ultimately, this is probably the reason. The huge fanbases of Michigan, OSU, Nebraska, Penn State, etc elevate the lower half of the conference to its new stratosphere. Ditto in the SEC. Alabama, LSU, Georgia, etc elevate Vanderbilt to being 20x more valuable than UConn. Can you imagine if all of the heavyweights just decided to join together into a mega, super, uber conference? Take the top heavyweights from each conference and form a college Premier League. Each school would probably command over $100M/yr from TV alone. Probably much more since there are no conference also-rans and deadweights to lower the value of the conference.

In any event, it's no less frustrating to us UConn fans to see all of these power schools valued at 10x, 15x, and now 25x more than UConn when there is absolutely zero logic to explain it in apples-to-apples terms.

So there is math showing that an average Big 10 game is worth 25x what an average AAC game is worth?
 
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So there is math showing that an average Big 10 game is worth 25x what an average AAC game is worth?
While I certainly agree that the math doesn't support this value, does it really matter? Fox was willing to pay that, math be damned. Capitalism at its best (or worst). I watched the Big Short last night and I feel that in ways that pertain to tv rights, etc. the college landscape is going down a similar path. Its unsustainable. It ignores intrinsic value. Someone will get burned. The bubble will burst.
 
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Why is the Big 10 (and SEC) worth so much more than every other league? Are their apples to apples ratings to support that gap?

Why?

More people watched the Alabama spring game on TV than the NHL playoff game that same Saturday.

Those Southeasterners are mad dog football watchers evidently, willling to tune into a meaningless spring practice game.
 

junglehusky

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While I certainly agree that the math doesn't support this value, does it really matter? Fox was willing to pay that, math be damned. Capitalism at its best (or worst). I watched the Big Short last night and I feel that in ways that pertain to tv rights, etc. the college landscape is going down a similar path. Its unsustainable. It ignores intrinsic value. Someone will get burned. The bubble will burst.
John Gasaway: I Ain't Afraid of no Sports Bubbles
 

junglehusky

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Built a nice strawman there....
I guess I cited a blog post about basketball and the NCAA tournament in a thread about football contracts, but if there is a threat to non P5 / non P2 basketball, I think it's more long term than immediate term.

Wrestling, rowing, etc men's sports, maybe even baseball on the other hand...
 
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