Looks like they are headed for a 10th place finish the way things are shaping up.
UConn has a favorable schedule remaining. UNH is struggling this year, and UMass-Amherst is...UMass-Amherst. Win two of three, and we are in a good place to get a first-round home series (not bad at all for our first year).
Seriously, UConn is four points (i.e. two wins) out of fourth place, and wins the tiebreaker with Maine for 8th currently (though the Black Bears have a game in hand. Fourth is unreachable due to circumstances, but finishing between 5-8 is not unreasonable.
22 points is the potential ceiling for UConn. Fifth place is also the potential ceiling, but winning all their remaining games could still leave them in ninth.
They can't beat Boston U or Boston College on points. Third place is ALSO unreachable, for two reasons:
1) UConn loses the current tiebreaker to UMass-Lowell, due to an 0-1-1 head to head record.
2) In order for UML to finish with 22 points, UML cannot win any more games. That means surrendering four points to UVM, giving the Catamounts 23, one ahead of UConn.
Fourth place is not possible because:
1) UConn must win all remaining games.
2a) Providence cannot win or tie any games.
2b) Because that would surrender four points to Maine, Maine cannot get any more than two points against BU (UConn wins the tiebreaker).
3a) Northeastern can only take one point in their remaining four games (i.e must be three losses and one tie, or four losses).
3b) That would ALSO surrender at least three points to Maine, who would have either 23 or 24.
Fifth place is possible, but not likely; UConn can get some help here from fourth-place Providence if they beat Maine at least once.
1) UConn must win all remaining games.
2) Northeastern cannot gain any more than one point.
3) Notre Dame cannot gain any more than one point.
4) Maine can gain, at most, six points out of their remaining eight (they have to beat Northeastern twice, and can either tie twice or win once against Providence, to help UConn).
5) UVM cannot gain more than two points out of their remaining eight (against Merrimack and UML; Merrimack winning here doesn't hurt because as long as UConn sweeps their remainder, the Warriors cannot catch them).
If only one of 2-5 above is false, UConn can take sixth (they'll either lose on a tiebreaker, or simply fall one or two points shy). Northeastern doing so is the best case for us, because as long as they beat Maine once, UConn will always finish higher than UMO.
The worst case scenario for UConn winning all their remaining games is this:
1) Northeastern wins one game against BU, and loses both matches to Maine.
2) Notre Dame wins at least one game against BC or BU.
3) UVM gets three points against Merrimack and/or UVM.
4) Maine beats Providence twice.
This leaves UConn ninth, with 22 points, and facing any of Northeastern, UVM, or Notre Dame on the road in the first round.
