The foul line

[Palatine]

In the first PeeCee game we were 10 for 19 from the foul line. Just over 50%. What made it worse was they shot 29 for 35, over 80%. If you're keeping score, they outscored us by 19 points from the foul line. Hopkins alone was 13 of 15.

Looking at the rest of the scorecard. We shot 22% (5-22) from three and they were 44% (8-18). Interestingly, Hurley said after the game he liked the open shots we had from three especially in the second half, we just couldn't convert.

It is reasonable to assume these two outliers regress toward the mean. If they do it should make a huge difference. You can peruse the box score here. UConn vs. Providence - Men's College Basketball Box Score - January 4, 2023 | ESPN

 

[gsmooth]

I was at that game in Providence. I agree with Hurley. UConn had plenty of open 3s including some where Sanogo got the rebound and passed it out to Calcaterra or Newton and the shooters missed badly (not even close). That's why even with the bad officiating, believe me it was bad, I still say Providence deserved to and earned the victory over UConn. If only more of those open looks from 3 hit, that ball game goes in a different direction.

 

[REB1094]

In the games since Providence:

• Seton Hall: 73% FT, 18% 3P
• @ Creighton: 100% FT (4 attempts), 26% 3P
• Marquette: 59% FT, 52% 3P
• @ GTown: 40% FT (5 attempts), 50% 3P
• @ DePaul: 88% FT, 25% 3P
• Xavier: 76% FT, 36% 3P
• Butler: 68% FT, 37% 3P
• @ Seton Hall: 93% FT, 39% 3P
• SJU: 74% FT, 31% 3P
• @ Marquette: 80% FT, 27% 3P
• Creighton: 83% FT, 33% 3P

Some outliers here and there but feels like our run rate is around mid 70's for FT, mid 30's for 3P with some major swings in each direction. Live by the 3, die by the 3. Hopefully at home we live by it. I agree with Hurley that we weren't necessarily getting bad looks last time, just couldn't make them. Unfortunately this has been the case for many games this year so it feels more like an uncontrollable coin flip rather than controllable shot quality

Providence won't shoot 35 FTs again. They do play physically, but the officiating crew last time was VERY generous to them. Definitely won't get those ticky tacks called in CT

 

[auror]

Based on who both teams had shooting from where (aka Shot Quality), on average we should've won that game by 10 (and win 78% of the time). We had 100th percentile shot quality. Basically all open 3s, FTs, and rim attempts.

 

[HeGotGame]

Based on who both teams had shooting from where (aka Shot Quality), on average we should've won that game by 10 (and win 78% of the time). We had 100th percentile shot quality. Basically all open 3s, FTs, and rim attempts.

All you can do is put the players in the right positions, then its all on them to convert.