Sox trade for Kimbrel....

[G0UCONN]

for four minor leaguers.

Excellent. Fixing the BP is priority one.

 

[Stainmaster]

And to think that Manuel Margot was the only big-name prospect it required. Very shrewd move, Dombrowski.

 

[G0UCONN]

I actually haven't heard of any of the four....

 

[Stainmaster]

I actually haven't heard of any of the four....

I saw Margot play for Portland and Asuaje for Lowell. Margot is a solid player - very toolsy, nice athleticism. He has a big league future. Allen is a recent draftee whose stats in the lowest levels of the minors were crazy good, but we have enough pitching depth for it not to matter. Asuaje is a utility guy if he can hit more consistently. Guerra's a nice player too but unproven, I'm a MILB fan in general so I'll see how he does in the Padres' system.

 

[60'sfan]

for four minor leaguers.

Excellent. Fixing the BP is priority one.

Agree, a great start for our new GM. Kimbrel might be the best closer in baseball today and they did not give up very much. I follow the minor leaguers and none of them appears to be a future starter at least with the Sox. Margot is probably the closest but he has never hit .300 in the minors and has shown no power. I'll admit that I no nothing about Allen.

 

[FrostyNuggets]

This is Dombrowski's m.o....trading farm system for established players. There is lot in the system to harvest and more is sure to come out of this guy. 3 of these prospects were in the sox top 10 according to soxprospects.com. I juat have to think that if you are going to trade that many prospects away, you need to get more than a closer.

 

[Waquoit]

I think he's trying to win now.

 

[FrostyNuggets]

dont mind the approach/mindset. But he needs to get more value in return. The dirty q-tip will like this move.

 

[60'sfan]

This is Dombrowski's m.o....trading farm system for established players. There is lot in the system to harvest and more is sure to come out of this guy. 3 of these prospects were in the sox top 10 according to soxprospects.com. I juat have to think that if you are going to trade that many prospects away, you need to get more than a closer.

Two things. One Kimbrel is not just a closer, he is an elite closer who over the last five years might be the best in the game. Two, of the four prospects only Margot is in the sporting news top 50 and he appears to be somewhat over-rated based on what he has accomplished in the minors. As for the other "prospects" they may be in the top 10 on the Sox list but given the way the system has been depleted over the last three years, that is not saying much.

 

[mauconnfan]

Excellent move

 

[Dooley]

I'm in the minority it seems, but I actually think this is a GREAT haul for the Padres. They got 3 of the Sox top 12 prospects for a closer - always a good deal for a rebuilding club. All of them are years away so you won't be able to compare right away, but there are two guys with HUGE upside (Guerra and Allen). Margot is a perfect fit in Petco - a speedy OF who can handle the stick and run down everything in their big outfield. You guys need to do more research on Guerra. Yes, he's only in A ball, but he's a defensive wizard who hit 15 HRs and .270 AVG last year. He's probably the best piece that the Padres were able to get. Allen is a high end prospect too who posted dominating numbers in rookie and A ball last year.

Dave Dombroski is a resource drain, no question about it. He's going to deal away the top chips to win now but that's something Sox (and other big markets) fans want. Live for today. For the Sox, the best thing is that Kimbrel is controlled for 3 years at reasonable salary (around $13M-$15M/yr). It seems odd that closer was the first area to address given the fact that the Sox have many other holes to fill for 2016. This move also means that the Sox intend to spend BIG in free agency...although I think we all knew that when the Sox shifted course and replaced Cherinton with Dombrowski. David Price seems destined to end up in Boston and best of all, no draft pick attachment. I think the Sox could use 1 or 2 more starters after Price though. Iwakuma or Zimmermann might fit. And they might have to cash in some more prospects to get another starter.

Justin Upton would cost a draft pick but would be sorely needed. He plays decent enough defense and would provide much needed pop to the offense. Get HanRam out of LF and at 3B. Punt Panda or shift him to 1B. Sign another bullpen arm for middle relief.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Two things. One Kimbrel is not just a closer, he is an elite closer who over the last five years might be the best in the game. Two, of the four prospects only Margot is in the sporting news top 50 and he appears to be somewhat over-rated based on what he has accomplished in the minors. As for the other "prospects" they may be in the top 10 on the Sox list but given the way the system has been depleted over the last three years, that is not saying much.

I think it is a good move for both teams. You are underrating the prospects however. Keith Law has Margot at #15 and Javy Guerra at #48. But both are blocked with the Sox at SS and CF by Boston's two best young players. So the loss for Boston is palatable. They needed a closer and power arm in the bullpen. I'd be more concerned if players closer to the majors were being moved. That being said, these deals can't come every year or you end up with no farm system.

 

[1999.2004.2011]

I thought this was an excellent first move by Dombroski. Margot is the best prospect in that deal, but I didn't even view him as a top five guy in the Sox system.

Kimbrel is still in his prime, and the underlying analytics don't really show much regression at all. He had a rocky start to the season last year, but got in a groove the second half. Velocity, K and chase rates were all consistent with previous seasons.

 

[The Viking]

It seems odd that closer was the first area to address given the fact that the Sox have many other holes to fill for 2016. This move also means that the Sox intend to spend BIG in free agency...although I think we all knew that when the Sox shifted course and replaced Cherinton with Dombrowski. David Price seems destined to end up in Boston and best of all, no draft pick attachment.

The bullpen was the biggest weakness on Boston last year. With Uehara in his 40's, at some point the Sox were going to have to trade for a Kimbrel or Chapman or develop one. And they haven't really developed a closer since Papelbon transitioned from starter to closer.

Dombrowski claims he will now leave the prospect pile alone the rest of the offseason and use cash for a starter. It's gonna be costly. Price (who could reunite with Maddon and go to the Cubs), Cueto and Greinke will likely be the top 3 targets. Greinke will cost a pick though...but he does have ties with some in the Boston system from their days in KC.

As for your take on the trade I agree with you. I think the Sox overpaid a bit. I would have given up one of Margot or Guerra along with the other 2..But it is what it is. At least this move strengthens the Sox big time next year in the pen. And they still have Devers, Moncada, Benintendi, Espinosa etc along with young kids like Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, Bradley, Rodriguez and Owens, etc who have joined the big league club over the past 1-2 years.

 

[Dooley]

The bullpen was the biggest weakness on Boston last year. With Uehara in his 40's, at some point the Sox were going to have to trade for a Kimbrel or Chapman or develop one. And they haven't really developed a closer since Papelbon transitioned from starter to closer.

Dombrowski claims he will now leave the prospect pile alone the rest of the offseason and use cash for a starter. It's gonna be costly. Price (who could reunite with Maddon and go to the Cubs), Cueto and Greinke will likely be the top 3 targets. Greinke will cost a pick though...but he does have ties with some in the Boston system from their days in KC.

As for your take on the trade I agree with you. I think the Sox overpaid a bit. I would have given up one of Margot or Guerra along with the other 2..But it is what it is. At least this move strengthens the Sox big time next year in the pen. And they still have Devers, Moncada, Benintendi, Espinosa etc along with young kids like Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, Bradley, Rodriguez and Owens, etc who have joined the big league club over the past 1-2 years.

I completely agree the Sox needed to address their pen. I'm just saying that the timing is a bit risky since the starting rotation hasn't been addressed yet. It all but means that the Sox could be bidding against themselves to ensure that they ink 1 or 2 of the top free agent arms that you listed. But yes, it is what it is. The Padres might have told Dombroski that they have multiple offers that they are entertaining and wanted to get something done sooner than later. In fact, that is probably what happened given the Reds position in dealing Chapman and the Yankees flirting with the idea of dealing Miller. Get out in front of the market and secure two tremendous upside assets and Margot, who should play well in Petco. Boston certainly has the cash and they are loaded in their system so even if they aren't able to address all their needs via free agency, they will be able to put together VERY attractive packages for SPs. Devers alone would be a terrific package headliner for an ace SP.

I've felt for quite some time that Price will sign in Boston. The Cubs could make a play but I think if it became a bidding war between the two, the Sox are the more desperate club for pitching and would probably give a "whatever the Cubs are offering PLUS x dollars" type of offer.

I really like ERod. Once he's able to learn how to pitch, he's got all the tools to be dominate. If the Sox can land Price and a #2, ERod is not a bad #3 or 4 already in 2016.

 

[1999.2004.2011]

I completely agree the Sox needed to address their pen. I'm just saying that the timing is a bit risky since the starting rotation hasn't been addressed yet. It all but means that the Sox could be bidding against themselves to ensure that they ink 1 or 2 of the top free agent arms that you listed. But yes, it is what it is. The Padres might have told Dombroski that they have multiple offers that they are entertaining and wanted to get something done sooner than later. In fact, that is probably what happened given the Reds position in dealing Chapman and the Yankees flirting with the idea of dealing Miller. Get out in front of the market and secure two tremendous upside assets and Margot, who should play well in Petco. Boston certainly has the cash and they are loaded in their system so even if they aren't able to address all their needs via free agency, they will be able to put together VERY attractive packages for SPs. Devers alone would be a terrific package headliner for an ace SP.

I've felt for quite some time that Price will sign in Boston. The Cubs could make a play but I think if it became a bidding war between the two, the Sox are the more desperate club for pitching and would probably give a "whatever the Cubs are offering PLUS x dollars" type of offer.

I really like ERod. Once he's able to learn how to pitch, he's got all the tools to be dominate. If the Sox can land Price and a #2, ERod is not a bad #3 or 4 already in 2016.

I think the one thing people are forgetting (and with last season it was easily forgettable) was that Owens, Miley, Porcello and to some extent Kelly all pitched pretty well down the stretch. While I have my doubts about Kelly and Miley long term, Porcello was the guy I was most impressed with. It was clear that he was dealing with a bunch of injuries early in the season, but came back strong in the 2nd half

 

[1999.2004.2011]

I think the one thing people are forgetting (and with last season it was easily forgettable) was that Owens, Miley, Porcello and to some extent Kelly all pitched pretty well down the stretch. While I have my doubts about Kelly and Miley long term, Porcello was the guy I was most impressed with. It was clear that he was dealing with a bunch of injuries early in the season, but came back strong in the 2nd half

But I do agree that if you are able to land a pitcher like Price or Cueto, pairing him with ERod, Porcello, Owens and Miley that's a pretty decent rotation.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I think the one thing people are forgetting (and with last season it was easily forgettable) was that Owens, Miley, Porcello and to some extent Kelly all pitched pretty well down the stretch. While I have my doubts about Kelly and Miley long term, Porcello was the guy I was most impressed with. It was clear that he was dealing with a bunch of injuries early in the season, but came back strong in the 2nd half

Yeah, I think they need 1 top end starter and that's it. Plenty of depth. I see Porcello sticking with his sinker and being a #2. Kelly has Ace stuff, he just needs to harness it. He'd also be a lights out closer if they converted him. I think Kelly and ERod both have solid #3 ability, and one of them is our 4th. That leaves Owens or Miley to earn the 5th starter slot.

I'm assuming Bucholz will be moved, but he's there as well.

 

[Dooley]

I absolutely hate the Sox pitching. I'm not confident at all in Miley, Kelly or Porcello...especially with the gaping holes in the Sox defense. They're good up the middle, so that's good. But God forbid anyone pulls Porcello. That's the risk with pitch-to-contact SPs...if you don't have dynamic defense behind them, you waste their strength. The Sox corners defense plays more to strikeout pitchers than contact pitchers.

This free agent market has several front line aces. The Sox need to get one of them, maybe two. I would be SHOCKED if the Sox didn't enter the 2016 season without 2 aces and the rest of the rotation fought over by the 2015 best of the worst.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I absolutely hate the Sox pitching. I'm not confident at all in Miley, Kelly or Porcello...especially with the gaping holes in the Sox defense. They're good up the middle, so that's good. But God forbid anyone pulls Porcello. That's the risk with pitch-to-contact SPs...if you don't have dynamic defense behind them, you waste their strength. The Sox corners defense plays more to strikeout pitchers than contact pitchers.

This free agent market has several front line aces. The Sox need to get one of them, maybe two. I would be SHOCKED if the Sox didn't enter the 2016 season without 2 aces and the rest of the rotation fought over by the 2015 best of the worst.

I don't see any chance that they pony up for more than one top of the rotation free agent starter. I also don't think they need one, but you obviously disagree. I think you may see more moves in the bullpen, mirroring what the Royals do with decent starters and a lights out pen. I still wouldn't be surprised if Kelly becomes a dominant 8th inning guy, with Uehara working the 7th or filling in as needed for rest.

The team isn't done. I would not be surprised to see Panda moved if they can find anyone else to play 3B. I think he's more trade-able than Ramirez. Sadly, 3B seems to be the weakest position in MLB right now.

 

[Dooley]

I don't see any chance that they pony up for more than one top of the rotation free agent starter. I also don't think they need one, but you obviously disagree. I think you may see more moves in the bullpen, mirroring what the Royals do with decent starters and a lights out pen. I still wouldn't be surprised if Kelly becomes a dominant 8th inning guy, with Uehara working the 7th or filling in as needed for rest.

The team isn't done. I would not be surprised to see Panda moved if they can find anyone else to play 3B. I think he's more trade-able than Ramirez. Sadly, 3B seems to be the weakest position in MLB right now.

You can certainly use the Royals approach - it's easier to find electric arms who can overpower late inning batters than it is to find a guy who can keep an offense off balance for 6+ innings. Kimbrel shortens the game down an inning for sure. Uehara, Tazawa and Ogando did a good job last year. One FA who is flying a bit under the radar that every team should bid on is Darren O'Day. He's not electric by any means and is really a clone of Uehara (side delivery topping off no higher than 90mph), but the dude gets guys out from both sides of the plate. He's comfortable in a set-up role and obviously has AL East experience. You add him to the mix with a proven LHP for the 7th/8th and then you can shrink games effectively.

It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if the Sox shifted Panda to 1B, HanRam back to 3B and then tried to sign Justin Upton to play LF. They won't be able to find any trade partners to deal either without trading something of extreme value to go along with them. They make WAY too much money for the level of production they contribute offensively and defensively.

But let's just play hypothetical - let's say the Lucas Duda walks in free agency. Would the Mets be interested in the combo for one of their lesser pitching talents (think Wheeler level)? They might. Panda provides David Wright spinal insurance and HanRam can easily overtake Wilmer Flores at SS (Flores or Tejada shift to 2B when Murphy walks). If Wright is healthy, Panda or Wright plays 1B. It's not ideal because obviously HanRam has limited range for a SS defensively and Panda is, well, regular season challenged. But it would lengthen their lineup to much deeper than what it currently projects to be. If the Mets sign Heyward for youth and defense (they certainly have the money!), then picking up two mediocre, at best, defenders isn't that bad. Now the Mets have lengthened their lineup without trading Thor, deGrom, Harvey or Matz.

For the Sox, it's a no-brainer. You get out from two horrendous mistakes while adding a talented young arm. Yes, it comes with risk but that can be offset by the financial flexibility the trade would give Boston to go out and address pitching in free agency. You can now comfortably sign Price and make strong offers for Greinke or Cueto. I really like Iwakuma and he'll come in at a much lower price tag than Greinke or Cueto. Even Scott Kazmir. Or perhaps the Sox make a few phone calls to see what kind of smaller scale package (i.e. sans Devers/Moncada/Betts/Boegarts) it would take to bring in someone like James Shields, Julio Teheran, or Corey Kluber. Or they can go larger package wise and seek out a Chris Sale, Sonny Gray, or possibly even the King Felix (??). The Sox have the prospect depth to get a deal done for any of these guys at the amount of cost that they are comfortable with. But with Wheeler on board, you have locked in your 2 or 3 behind whatever ace you sign and you do it at a cost controlled value.

 

[Rico444]

The Mets wouldn't trade Wheeler for Hanley and Panda in a million years. Those guys are old and making a ton of money for their level of production.

Just because Wheeler's coming off of Tommy John doesn't mean we're going to give him away. He still has value to us. We almost traded him for Jay Bruce at the trade deadline; HanRam and Panda won't cut it.

 

[HuskyHawk]

The Mets wouldn't trade Wheeler for Hanley and Panda in a million years. Those guys are old and making a ton of money for their level of production.

Just because Wheeler's coming off of Tommy John doesn't mean we're going to give him away. He still has value to us. We almost traded him for Jay Bruce at the trade deadline; HanRam and Panda won't cut it.

Agreed. The Sox are going to need to eat a lot of cash to move those guys. But I think Panda has a market, due to his history of success with the Giants and the utter lack of quality 3B across the league. Hanley would be more difficult to move.

I'm going out on a limb here, and will predict that Ramirez has enough pride that he will drop 15-20 pounds, and learn to play 1B. I think he can become adequate there defensively, and without the stress of playing in OF, his bat will come back. If so, the Sox have a darned good 1B. Reports are that he is working out very hard already to reshape his body.

 

[The Viking]

I absolutely hate the Sox pitching. I'm not confident at all in Miley, Kelly or Porcello...especially with the gaping holes in the Sox defense. They're good up the middle, so that's good. But God forbid anyone pulls Porcello. That's the risk with pitch-to-contact SPs...if you don't have dynamic defense behind them, you waste their strength. The Sox corners defense plays more to strikeout pitchers than contact pitchers.

This free agent market has several front line aces. The Sox need to get one of them, maybe two. I would be SHOCKED if the Sox didn't enter the 2016 season without 2 aces and the rest of the rotation fought over by the 2015 best of the worst.

There's no way they're pay for two aces. John Henry has dipped his toes over the luxury tax once in a while but he has never blown through it and usually settles back below the luxury tax the next year.
But they will likely get one of the top 3 or 4 pitchers in the market.
FA pitcher
Buchholz
Porcello
Rodriguez
Miley

That's not a bad rotation when you have guys like Owens who could fill in as a #5 if someone goes down in spring training.

 

[Danzz]

Price is appears to be the Sox target but I would rather have a RH ace especially if Owens makes the rotation. Buchholz is as good as anyone when he is on but the guy spends way too much time on the DL. I really don't want to see a rotation with 3 LH pitchers.