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So what's next?

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nelsonmuntz

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Big 12 expansion momentum appears dead, and died because the Big 12 would rather have no schools than UConn. If the P5 league that is essentially on life support itself decided that it would rather do nothing than add UConn, the Huskies have their answer on whether they are a candidate for a P5 conference in the foreseeable future.

Doing nothing is a death sentence, so that is not an option. The athletic program can not financially support its current cost base with the revenue it is receiving. ESPN places almost no value on the AAC television content, so there is no point in continuing to sell it.

Trying to raid the MWC will likely be unsuccessful and wouldn't accomplish anything even if it happened. Putting San Diego State, BYU or Boise State in the AAC is just a version of moving deck chairs on the Titanic, and there is no reason for the western schools to do anything. I think the traditional conference structure does not bring a lot of value to UConn or many of the G5 schools.

That said, Boise and BYU's situation, with separate contracts from ESPN, shine a light into an alternative solution. It is evidence that for some G5 schools, and I would argue many of them, the value of the whole conference is significantly less than the sum of their individual parts. I would be surprised if almost every AAC school wouldn't be better off controlling its own content and selling it separately than they are selling their content as a group to ESPN. It could be argued that, at the very least, they don't have anything to lose by trying.

I also think the G5 schools should negotiate collectively with the networks for whatever national content they can produce. Finally, all the G5 conferences are a hodge podge of teams in overlapping geographies. It may make sense to consolidate scheduling within the conferences into a combination of Tiered and Regional scheduling. The top tier programs from the G5 should play each other more, but the schools should also not be locked into scheduling distant programs that have little rivalry value and are not marquee games for TV. You could even hold open dates at the end of the season to better match up the top tier G5 programs in marquee games.

I think the G5 schools should consolidate top tier content and negotiate collectively with TV for that content, while also leaving individual schools the ability to cut separate deals with local broadcasters. UConn has to come up with something if it wants to survive, and #begharder is not working.
 
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Big 12 expansion momentum appears dead, and died because the Big 12 would rather have no schools than UConn. If the P5 league that is essentially on life support itself decided that it would rather do nothing than add UConn, the Huskies have their answer on whether they are a candidate for a P5 conference in the foreseeable future.

Doing nothing is a death sentence, so that is not an option. The athletic program can not financially support its current cost base with the revenue it is receiving. ESPN places almost no value on the AAC television content, so there is no point in continuing to sell it.

Trying to raid the MWC will likely be unsuccessful and wouldn't accomplish anything even if it happened. Putting San Diego State, BYU or Boise State in the AAC is just a version of moving deck chairs on the Titanic, and there is no reason for the western schools to do anything. I think the traditional conference structure does not bring a lot of value to UConn or many of the G5 schools.

That said, Boise and BYU's situation, with separate contracts from ESPN, shine a light into an alternative solution. It is evidence that for some G5 schools, and I would argue many of them, the value of the whole conference is significantly less than the sum of their individual parts. I would be surprised if almost every AAC school wouldn't be better off controlling its own content and selling it separately than they are selling their content as a group to ESPN. It could be argued that, at the very least, they don't have anything to lose by trying.

I also think the G5 schools should negotiate collectively with the networks for whatever national content they can produce. Finally, all the G5 conferences are a hodge podge of teams in overlapping geographies. It may make sense to consolidate scheduling within the conferences into a combination of Tiered and Regional scheduling. The top tier programs from the G5 should play each other more, but the schools should also not be locked into scheduling distant programs that have little rivalry value and are not marquee games for TV. You could even hold open dates at the end of the season to better match up the top tier G5 programs in marquee games.

I think the G5 schools should consolidate top tier content and negotiate collectively with TV for that content, while also leaving individual schools the ability to cut separate deals with local broadcasters. UConn has to come up with something if it wants to survive, and #begharder is not working.

BBall is our 'brand'. Just because B12 (and ACC) didn't see the value, doesn't mean the networks won't. So agreed, we should exit AAC and look to form alliances with individual programs. I just think we should work from our strength (bball) and take care of this first and foremost. Football's gonna need work, and may take a while to straighten out.
 

pepband99

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The drama queen returns!

Big 12 expansion momentum appears dead, and died because the Big 12 is a dysfunctional fustercluck and UConn isn't south of Ohio or west of the Mississippi.
FIFY.

If the P5 league that is essentially on life support itself decided that it would rather do nothing than add anyone (including a geographically unfit UConn), everyone now knows the conference is dead walking.
Again.

Doing nothing is a death sentence, so that is not an option. Blah blah blah Boise T3 blah blah blah.

The answer hasn't changed. We *are* doing nothing until 2021, unless a P5 invite comes along, or if an AAC look-in window allows for change. The fact the B12 even shortlisted us against the geographic backdrop, and the current state of our football program, should be seen as a net plus, not a negative.

After that? Forces far outside of the remit of UConn are more likely to move things. If death comes to anything, it's the traditional conference media rights landscape - there is going to continue to be accelerating erosion of revenue for ESPN, etc, from traditional means. **Anything** that breaks up the status quo is a positive for us, as we're really only held back by history in football, and not a ton else. I think hitching our horse to a newer online per-school landscape is the right idea - you're already seeing evidence of the big schools not liking sharing the pie with the little ones, and we resemble a "big school" much moreso than a little one.
 
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I don't want to get sucked into a "what if" scenario. When something definitive happens, I am sure we will all have something to say...
 
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The individual schools selling their own rights idea was proposed by Terry Holland at ECU, a while back AAC schools rejected the idea, that may have to be revisited. I believe the current TV deal is in line to run out as the exit fees dry up. That is the soonest time to act. A school struggling with revenue can't afford to walk away from the exit fee money for others in the conference to keep.
 
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I still believe that the B12 option will occur, ..... but....if it becomes apparent that neither the B12 nor ACC will not happen then I believe that a call should be made to the Big East to see if UConn and BYU can be added as a package.

The Big East + UConn and BYU = first class basketball conference.
 

nelsonmuntz

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The individual schools selling their own rights idea was proposed by Terry Holland at ECU, a while back AAC schools rejected the idea, that may have to be revisited. I believe the current TV deal is in line to run out as the exit fees dry up. That is the soonest time to act. A school struggling with revenue can't afford to walk away from the exit fee money for others in the conference to keep.

I believe that both the AAC and MWC TV contracts are up at the end of 2020. I don't think either conference should renew. Realistically, nothing would happen before that point anyway.

I think that those two, and any other G5 leagues that want to get in on it should negotiate as a block. We also need our Tier 3 back, and need it expanded. Half or more of the schedule should be Tier 3. If ESPN is not going to pay us for it, why are we selling it to them?

There is a lot they can do a lot with a combined AAC/MWC scheduling, along with anyone else that wants to join. I think teams should have regional and national scheduling, rather than pick a bunch of teams out of an artificial hat like the AAC currently does.

I have shared this idea before. I also thing there should be an AAC/MWC combined football only conference, that should be open to other G5 schools joining. I would put the combined league into 2 or 3 strata based on quality. Half the schedule would be based on geography, and half the schedule would be based on strata. It would provide local rivalries which would be attractive for fans but also create national games for TV.

Sticking with a small mid-major league like the AAC in its current format is a huge mistake.
 

nelsonmuntz

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The answer hasn't changed. We *are* doing nothing until 2021, unless a P5 invite comes along, or if an AAC look-in window allows for change. The fact the B12 even shortlisted us against the geographic backdrop, and the current state of our football program, should be seen as a net plus, not a negative.

After that? Forces far outside of the remit of UConn are more likely to move things. If death comes to anything, it's the traditional conference media rights landscape - there is going to continue to be accelerating erosion of revenue for ESPN, etc, from traditional means. **Anything** that breaks up the status quo is a positive for us, as we're really only held back by history in football, and not a ton else. I think hitching our horse to a newer online per-school landscape is the right idea - you're already seeing evidence of the big schools not liking sharing the pie with the little ones, and we resemble a "big school" much moreso than a little one.

So you attack me but then agree with me in the last paragraph. Got it.
 

shizzle787

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I've said this a gazillion times, but I'll say it again. The first thing you do is get rid of men's golf, men's and women's tennis, and men's and women's cross country to get down to the NCAA minimum and save money. None of these sports are true Olympics sports (yes tennis is in the Olympics but no one cares-cause Majors), and we keep all of the sports that matter. Then we strong arm the AAC into letting us park our football there while going over to the Big East for everything else. If that doesn't work, we stay put.
 

nelsonmuntz

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I've said this a gazillion times, but I'll say it again. The first thing you do is get rid of men's golf, men's and women's tennis, and men's and women's cross country to get down to the NCAA minimum and save money. None of these sports are true Olympics sports (yes tennis is in the Olympics but no one cares-cause Majors), and we keep all of the sports that matter. Then we strong arm the AAC into letting us park our football there while going over to the Big East for everything else. If that doesn't work, we stay put.

There is no cutting our way out of this problem. UConn needs more revenue.
 

pepband99

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So you attack me but then agree with me in the last paragraph. Got it.

I could have nailed your false response down to the "got it" - such a troll...

No, my point is that the landscape will change so fundamentally, that envisioning something that would work today, current contracts be damned, is a fruitless exercise.
 

shizzle787

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There is no cutting our way out of this problem. UConn needs more revenue.
Big East + Tier 3 rights + AAC football. They will all play ball. The BE isn't giving up 8 years mimimum of UConn's brand, and AAC isn't going to get rid of a former power football school for NIU or Southern Miss or Marshall.
 

nelsonmuntz

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I could have nailed your false response down to the "got it" - such a troll...

No, my point is that the landscape will change so fundamentally, that envisioning something that would work today, current contracts be damned, is a fruitless exercise.

Any strategy that involves hanging in the AAC as it is currently constituted until we get invited to join the cool kids will fail. We need our Tier 3 rights back and need them expanded.
 
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So you attack me but then agree with me in the last paragraph. Got it.
I think AAC contract up a year or 2 later no? 1st year or 2 were old Big East contract terms no?
 

pepband99

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Any strategy that involves hanging in the AAC as it is currently constituted until we get invited to join the cool kids will fail. We need our Tier 3 rights back and need them expanded.

We likely don't have another choice until 2021. You can keep screaming until you're blue in the face, and it won't change that.
 
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Personally, I think the most likely outcome if there is no expansion is that UConn, Cincy, Houston band together to change the AAC TV deal to regain their T3 rights.

If this Big 12 debacle has shown anything it's that those three schools have value in some form of another.

A concerted effort by those three schools to whip votes and change the AAC TV deal to recoup those rights is entirely doable also. 90% of the conference tried to get into the Big 12, so there is clearly unhappiness here that stems from access and money. Staying in the AAC won't cure the access, but getting their T3 rights back will help ease the financial burden that many of these schools face.

Some schools like Tulsa and ECU will be screwed because they are in such a tiny media market that their T3 rights are probably worth less alone than with the entire conference. The Florida schools may also have to ban together to sell their rights since their market is so saturated, which is the problem SMU will probably face as well in Dallas with TCU there. But UConn, Cincy, Memphis, Houston, Temple and Tulane could likely all make more with their T3 rights than they currently do.
 
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Big 12 expansion momentum appears dead, and died because the Big 12 would rather have no schools than UConn. If the P5 league that is essentially on life support itself decided that it would rather do nothing than add UConn, the Huskies have their answer on whether they are a candidate for a P5 conference in the foreseeable future.

Doing nothing is a death sentence, so that is not an option. The athletic program can not financially support its current cost base with the revenue it is receiving. ESPN places almost no value on the AAC television content, so there is no point in continuing to sell it.

Trying to raid the MWC will likely be unsuccessful and wouldn't accomplish anything even if it happened. Putting San Diego State, BYU or Boise State in the AAC is just a version of moving deck chairs on the Titanic, and there is no reason for the western schools to do anything. I think the traditional conference structure does not bring a lot of value to UConn or many of the G5 schools.

That said, Boise and BYU's situation, with separate contracts from ESPN, shine a light into an alternative solution. It is evidence that for some G5 schools, and I would argue many of them, the value of the whole conference is significantly less than the sum of their individual parts. I would be surprised if almost every AAC school wouldn't be better off controlling its own content and selling it separately than they are selling their content as a group to ESPN. It could be argued that, at the very least, they don't have anything to lose by trying.

I also think the G5 schools should negotiate collectively with the networks for whatever national content they can produce. Finally, all the G5 conferences are a hodge podge of teams in overlapping geographies. It may make sense to consolidate scheduling within the conferences into a combination of Tiered and Regional scheduling. The top tier programs from the G5 should play each other more, but the schools should also not be locked into scheduling distant programs that have little rivalry value and are not marquee games for TV. You could even hold open dates at the end of the season to better match up the top tier G5 programs in marquee games.

I think the G5 schools should consolidate top tier content and negotiate collectively with TV for that content, while also leaving individual schools the ability to cut separate deals with local broadcasters. UConn has to come up with something if it wants to survive, and #begharder is not working.

OMG .... I agree with Nelson. This "conference" amalgamation just doesn't work for all. We can eke out greater revenue in other forms.
 

Alum86

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Some agreement with SNY as a UConn network.
 
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If the Big 12 doesn't expand it's because Texas (primarily) and Oklahoma don't want to expand and they want to keep their future options open and/or they are going to get paid by FOX/ESPN not to expand. If they can find enough P5 homes for the various Big 12 schools (they need 8 due to the super majority voting rules to dissolve the conference), they can dissolve the Big 12 before the GORs expire, but I don't think that is going to happen.

As for UConn, the AAC is the only real choice to build the football program for inclusion during the next round of conference realignment. We have to press forward as there is not other realistic option.

What about increasing revenues? There are a number of ways to increase revenues. First and foremost is to win at football to increase attendance. If you win, fans will come no matter who the opponent is. Nothing is worse for attendance than losing football against teams that nobody cares about. Next, UConn needs to dramatically increase athletic fundraising. It's not easy, but if you get the right people in place, it can happen. Finally, some of Nelson's arguments are valid like being more creative with the AAC media deal. For example, the next AAC media deal need to provide more Tier 3 flexibility for the schools.
 

nelsonmuntz

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We likely don't have another choice until 2021. You can keep screaming until you're blue in the face, and it won't change that.

Which is what I said. You bring nothing to the discussion, so stay out of it.
 

nelsonmuntz

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Personally, I think the most likely outcome if there is no expansion is that UConn, Cincy, Houston band together to change the AAC TV deal to regain their T3 rights.

If this Big 12 debacle has shown anything it's that those three schools have value in some form of another.

A concerted effort by those three schools to whip votes and change the AAC TV deal to recoup those rights is entirely doable also. 90% of the conference tried to get into the Big 12, so there is clearly unhappiness here that stems from access and money. Staying in the AAC won't cure the access, but getting their T3 rights back will help ease the financial burden that many of these schools face.

Some schools like Tulsa and ECU will be screwed because they are in such a tiny media market that their T3 rights are probably worth less alone than with the entire conference. The Florida schools may also have to ban together to sell their rights since their market is so saturated, which is the problem SMU will probably face as well in Dallas with TCU there. But UConn, Cincy, Memphis, Houston, Temple and Tulane could likely all make more with their T3 rights than they currently do.

I would be surprised if next time around there were more than a handful of schools against a limited conference TV contract for the networks, with a lot of content held back for Tier III.

I do think the schools need to change everything, from the construction of the schedule to the delivery of the content. Doing the same thing again will result in a similar or worse outcome.
 
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If there's no Big XII expansion and the Big XII dies - we're not going to be anywhere near the front of the line for expansion. Anywhere. The only thing I see if the B1G wanting NYC and snatching UConn up - but whatever... I'm not counting my chickens.
 

junglehusky

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How much more money can we expect with this collective G5 negotiation? I don't think anyone on this board knows, so it's basically pie in the sky. Clawing back T3 is likely to be a better proposition, even then it's questionable how you convince most of the schools in your conference to agree to reduced revenue. UConn should and probably will try to do it, but we probably won't hear about it in the media after it gets shot down and then nelson will say "see! they're doing nothing!"
 

nelsonmuntz

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How much more money can we expect with this collective G5 negotiation? I don't think anyone on this board knows, so it's basically pie in the sky. Clawing back T3 is likely to be a better proposition, even then it's questionable how you convince most of the schools in your conference to agree to reduced revenue. UConn should and probably will try to do it, but we probably won't hear about it in the media after it gets shot down and then nelson will say "see! they're doing nothing!"

I would not be surprised if most of the AAC, and MWC for that matter, are in the same boat as we are when it comes to T3. They are looking at BYU and Boise's separate deals, and figure that they all have local markets and should be able to do the same. Once they control it, they can always sell it nationally if they happen to have a good season.

The traditional conference model is breaking down. Conferences exist for two reasons: 1) to provide a schedule, and 2) to sell media rights. The first reason is easily solvable with a little cooperation among schools, and the second is only relevant if the market thinks the media rights are more valuable at the conference level than they are at the school level. I would argue that we have the answer on #2, and it is that the media rights are more valuable at the school level. The mid-major conferences do not have a lot of national appeal, so their media rights don't have a lot of value to national networks. Why even have traditional conferences, especially for football?

To better monetize the T1+T2 and T3 while cutting costs, we need a schedule that is more relevant for a mid-major program like UConn. We need games that are more attractive locally (think more regional rivalries) plus better national content. We need less Tulane and Tulsa on the schedule, and I suspect they would be happy to have less of us.
 

pepband99

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Which is what I said. You bring nothing to the discussion, so stay out of it.

I guess I'll imitate you, since you seem to be so awesome...

"So, I supposedly agree with you, but add nothing to the conversation because I'm feeling snarky. Got it"

Close?

Trolly McTrollFace.
 
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