Wow, this is the end of the P5. It is now the P2 with the only conference that even has an outside chance to compete in the future being the PAC. The conferences without networks (ACC/Big12) just got moved to second tier.
One has to think that the BIG and SEC will eventually want a presence in NC and Virginia. Those are populous states which can support network sales. In addition. based on population, football recruiting, and now a ban on satellite camps, the BIG has to desire a Florida presence. It is no longer whether the BIG/SEC can lure ACC/Big12 schools but only how long until they do.
The irony is with this new BIG deal a school like Illinois or Rutgers is now bringing in money like a Notre Dame or UT. Kinda makes you wonder whether ND will realize they cannot fight on alone and will finally surrenders at Appomattox Courthouse. Moreover, Texas has to realize even they cannot outperform this new BIG contract.
Gotta agree with Fishy that the competition for the BIG just got a lot stiffer. But the good news is there will be ACC/Big12 defections and UConn is positioned to fill those vacancies. Is it the dream scenario? No, but it is not hard to envision a new ACC which looks a lot like the old BE and earns about $25-30 million a program. If we were in a conference with Cuse, BC, Pitt, WVU, Louisville, and Cincinnati the world would look a lot brighter even if we were in the second tier of sports revenue (currently we are in the nonexistent third tier with a bunch of teams who I can barely name their mascots.)
Now comes the fun part. Every team in the ACC has to know the writing is on the wall. Time to drop the knife, chainsaw, and axe in the middle of the ACC ring and see who fights their way out to the SEC/BIG. In a Mexican standoff first man to pull the trigger wins...who from the ACC/Big12 pulls the trigger first?
I know that it is conventional wisdom that every school would do all it could to join the Big Ten money trough.
Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, et al already made more than ND in TV money prior to the new Big Ten deal. ND knew that when it decided to go to the ACC in 2012.
ND makes about $22-23 million from NBC (it is so rumored, no FOIA since ND is private) and $3-4 million from the ACC/ESPN deal. So, that is about $25-27 million/year from TV until 2025.
So, the Big Ten schools will make somewhere between $14-19 million a year more in TV money than ND after the new Big Ten deal kicks in.
If ND were so concerned about increasing athletic revenues to the point of re-considering independence as a panic move, it could be adding way more than 3,000-4,000 extra seats to ND Stadium with that $400 million dollar expansion to the stadium that it is currently doing.
Instead, mostly all of that money is going into adding academic and student facilities grafted on to the stadium.
If extra athletic revenues were that crucial, ND could have used that $400 million to add 25,000 seats to the stadium to take the seating capacity up to 106,000 or so.
I am pretty sure that they could have sold those extra 25,000 seats (they have a huge waiting list right now) and made quite a lot more money at $85.00/seat per game x 6 home games per year. That is $12,750,000 per year more right there, not counting concessions, extra bookstore purchases, personal seat licenses, etc...
But....it didn't. It had the perfect opportunity to add more football revenues, but declined to do so. It is investing a ton of money in the stadium development but declined to add a lot of seats when it could have easily done so to generate more football cash.
The Project // Campus Crossroads Project // University of Notre Dame
I am not saying that ND would not love to be making $40 million or so a year in TV money. Sure, it would. What I am saying is that I don't think that anyone at ND is in a panic mode over the Big Ten deal and seriously considering the jettisoning of football independence any time soon.
(Now, watch ND announce its move to the Big Ten after I write this, lol)...