Predicting American This Year

[BFieldHusky]

I know we still have 7 weeks until the season starts. We know how important our OOC is, as it is every year we are in the American. Now that the new school year hast started, what do people think of teams in the American. My pre-season rankings:

1. UCONN
I have them as a favorite over Cincy because I like UConn's depth better. I think we will struggle a little early with a tough OOC schedule, but as the younger players get acclimated, I think UConn finally has the solid year in the American we have been waiting for.

2. Cincy
They have a great "Big 3" of Caupin, Clark and Evans. They bring in a transfer from NC State in Kyle Washington who should help them. I believe they and UConn are ahead of the pack this year. Only concern could be front court depth.

3. SMU
They already lost a ton before their coach resigned over the summer. Still think they have a lot of quality pieces between Milton and Brown in the backcourt, but front court will take a step back. Will be interesting to see how new coach transitions. Always a tough place to play.

4. Houston
I love their backcourt of Robinson and Gray, and Damyeon Dotson could be an all league player at 3. Problem is frontcourt as they lost Pollard, and don't have much there. Still think they have a enough talent to finish in Top 3-4 of the league.

5. Memphis
New coach will make a huge difference for them, and the Lawson twins give them some nice pieces down low in a league that doesn't have a lot of great front court players. Backcourt is still suspect, and I think it will take Tubby a year to get his program where he wants it.

6. Temple
They have a lot of injury issues to deal with. Their PG hurt his achilles in the spring and they had other injuries over the summer. Fran Dunphy always gets them to play hard, but they may have too much to overcome here.

7. Tulsa
Biggest roster turnover probably in the country. They have some good pieces, but it will take them a while to gel.

8. UCF
New coach who is turning over the roster. Will be interesting to see if Tacko Falls improves.

9. East Carolina
Same problem every year. Decent guards/wings, and no front court. Might be last year for Lebo?

10. USF
Coach could be in hot water because of academic scandal.

11. Tulane
Dunleavy lost a ton, and is eating some roster space with transfers.

I think best case this is a 4-5 bid league. There is a huge drop off after Memphis, unless Temple can get some players back. UConn has the best guards in the league, and with teams like Cincy and SMU losing their best front court players, UConn should win this league.

 

[kansashusky]

Every year I think UConn will win the American. Every year I am disappointed.

 

[Kemba'sYogurt]

I agree with you mostly, accept for the start of the year. I think we will be a bit sluggish in our first game, which is what you were getting at. But I think we could go on a run in this first tourney and win the thing. I think we might fade after that though. It's just a trend I've noticed with young teams and CBB

 

[upstater]

Every year I think UConn will win the American. Every year I am disappointed.

Well. They've won the American twice, and one of the year's they didn't win, they won the national championship.

 

[Yankees32123]

Well. They've won the American twice, and one of the year's they didn't win, they won the national championship.

They've only won the AAC once, last year.

 

[Yankees32123]

Well. They've won the American twice, and one of the year's they didn't win, they won the national championship.

And they didn't win the AAC season. They won the tournament.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

I like that the conference tournament is at XL. We nearly won it two years ago in Hartford during our worst season in a long time. SMU was just too tough. I'll predict we finish 2nd in regular season with Cincy tops. They always play a solid reg season and then burn out (to us) in the postseason. But I think we lift the hardware in Hartford.

 

[champs99and04]

And they didn't win the AAC season. They won the tournament.

I'm pretty sure nearly every conference recognizes the tournament winner as the conference champion, so technically, we won the AAC last year.

But recognizing the regular season champ as the winner probably has more merit, especially since the regular season winner - SMU - was ineligible last year. They were better than us and I consider them the 'true' conference champ last year.

 

[navery12]

I'm pretty sure nearly every conference recognizes the tournament winner as the conference champion, so technically, we won the AAC last year.

But recognizing the regular season champ as the winner probably has more merit, especially since the regular season winner - SMU - was ineligible last year. They were better than us and I consider them the 'true' conference champ last year.

And as currently set up I'll take winning the postseason AAC over winning the regular season, since there's a tangible advantage in the automatic bid.

Sure if we win the regular season we're most likely making it anyway, but there's still that small chance

 

[upstater]

And they didn't win the AAC season. They won the tournament.

The tournament is the champion. Just like in the old BE. If you win the tournament, you are "American Conference Champion." If you win the regular season, you are "American Conference Regular Season Champion."

With unbalanced scheduling, it will always be like this.

 

[upstater]

I'm pretty sure nearly every conference recognizes the tournament winner as the conference champion, so technically, we won the AAC last year.

But recognizing the regular season champ as the winner probably has more merit, especially since the regular season winner - SMU - was ineligible last year. They were better than us and I consider them the 'true' conference champ last year.

Unbalanced schedules make this very difficult though. If UConn had 22 conference games, then a good argument could be made.

 

[upstater]

They've only won the AAC once, last year.

Yep, got that wrong.

 

[kansashusky]

Well. They've won the American twice, and one of the year's they didn't win, they won the national championship.

When have we won the regular season? They won the tournament last year. And I thought we were discussing the conference, not the national championship.

 

[kansashusky]

I'm pretty sure Kansas has won 12 straight big twelve titles. Not twelve straight tournaments.

 

[champs99and04]

Unbalanced schedules make this very difficult though. If UConn had 22 conference games, then a good argument could be made.

Well, practically, yeah that makes sense, but SMU and UConn still played virtually the same schedule and they beat us out by four games. Unbalanced scheduling isn't as much of a factor in the AAC as it is in the ACC or Big 10.

 

[Huskybass]

I'm pretty sure Kansas has won 12 straight big twelve titles. Not twelve straight tournaments.

You're not in Kansas anymore.

 

[kansashusky]

You're not in Kansas anymore.

Zinger!

 

[Pudge]

Actually, the AAC is down this year.

It really is UConn & Cincinnati.

Memphis may be better: Addition by Subtraction. They didn't get better by players.

Temple down, SMU down (both LB & losing Moore), they say Houston will be up - not to the level of the first two

ECU, USF, UCF, Tulane, Tulsa, all putrid and not improving fast. Tulsa had 9 seniors last year.

 

[upstater]

Well, practically, yeah that makes sense, but SMU and UConn still played virtually the same schedule and they beat us out by four games. Unbalanced scheduling isn't as much of a factor in the AAC as it is in the ACC or Big 10.

No one is rewinding the last BE season to see if UConn could have won the tourney. No one cuts UConn that slack, fora missed season because of APR, never mind LarryBrown-shenanigans.

 

[upstater]

I'm pretty sure Kansas has won 12 straight big twelve titles. Not twelve straight tournaments.

The Big East has always considered the tourney champion to be the official champ.

 

[BUConn10]

I'd rather win an AAC regular season title than 3 AAC tournament titles any day of the week. The conference tournaments just make for good TV but have little impact in telling you how good of a team you have for the big dance.

 

[upstater]

I'd rather win an AAC regular season title than 3 AAC tournament titles any day of the week. The conference tournaments just make for good TV but have little impact in telling you how good of a team you have for the big dance.

Disagree 100% with this. The unbalanced schedule gives you different schedule strength, but the most important thing is to be good at the very end of the year. If you drop a game on your Texas trip right after New Year's, that is meaningless. Winning 4 games in early March, that is meaningful.

 

[BUConn10]

Disagree 100% with this. The unbalanced schedule gives you different schedule strength, but the most important thing is to be good at the very end of the year. If you drop a game on your Texas trip right after New Year's, that is meaningless. Winning 4 games in early March, that is meaningful.

Winning 4 games in this conference doesn't mean much to me. Sustained success throughout the regular season enough to win the league outright shows consistency and does better for seeding. We have become disillusioned as UConn fans in this non-power conference the last few years. Weak regular seasons and limping into the big dance as a 7-9 seed is not conducive to long term success in the NCAA tournament, which would be the case if we were to not win the AAC regular season and win the conference tournament most years.

 

[Hold the Chee]

I would say it's more of a year by year thing. This year if Cincinnati goes undefeated in conference and they are UConns only loss but UConn ends up winning the AAC tournament, that could be more of an accomplishment. Whereas if UConn wins the regular season title but still has 4 or 5 conference losses and doesn't win the conference tournament...

All I'm saying is they're both great accomplishments but can still be misleading by just their titles.

 

[upstater]

Winning 4 games in this conference doesn't mean much to me. Sustained success throughout the regular season enough to win the league outright shows consistency and does better for seeding. We have become disillusioned as UConn fans in this non-power conference the last few years. Weak regular seasons and limping into the big dance as a 7-9 seed is not conducive to long term success in the NCAA tournament, which would be the case if we were to not win the AAC regular season and win the conference tournament most years.

Have you seen the regular season champions' ranking? What were they ranked? Not much better. I'm talking about SMU the year before. This conference is simply not going to get top seeds unless the team finishes in the top 10 of the rankings.