OT - Baylor schedule

[UcMiami]

I was surprised when Baylor wasn't named one of the preliminary #1 seeds by the committee this past week. But I just looked at their schedule and because all the decent teams in the Big12 have tanked this year and the few decent teams in their OOC have also tanked, their record against the AP top 25 (this weeks poll) is 1-1. They have only played #11 Kentucky (early in the year on the road and lost by 10 after being outscored by 20 in the second half) and #25 Syracuse (who they beat at home by 2.) They played 'ranked' Texas (twice), MSU, and OKST but all of those teams have dropped out of the rankings - TX is now 5-8 in the Big12, OKST is now 6-7, MSU is 4-11 in the B1G. Additionally OK flirts with being ranked in the 20s and Baylor just beat them soundly at home.
While I think Baylor is a very good team and would pound on a bunch of the ranked teams, I now realize why the committee was reluctant to award them a #1 seed. It might work out better for them to get a #2 seed as that would make OKC a likely regional location. If they are the 4th #1 they probably end up in the NW region.

The Big12 is supposedly #1 in RPI but they are definitely in a down year and that ranking must be based on the strength of the bottom and mid level teams because the top besides Baylor is not impressive.

 

[DobbsRover2]

The rankings for the different systems (or pieces of them) have been very odd and divergent this year, but it's nice to see that the composite rankings compiled by Massey now has UConn on top, and that likely when the embargo on the Realtime RPI update goes through that UConn will move from 10th in R-RPI to 5th. But the composite shows how teams are all over the place in ratings in the different indexes. The brain-dead RPI is naturally worse than ever with Tennessee at the top, but even last year UConn was only 2nd due to ND's spotless record.

The high ratings for the B12 in all the ratings services (1st in Moore and RPI and 2nd behind the B10 in Sagarin and Massey) may seem odd considering that beyond the B12 and B10 top team, there isn't much strength at the top. But the key seems to be that no or few teams in either conference is that bad, as only Penn State is rated worse than #100 among the B12 and B10 teams right now. Both conferences have a big clump of middling teams around their mean average of 50.40 and 56.06 respectively. The ACC, PAC, and SEC on the other hand have some teams up close to the #100 mark along with Boston College, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Clemson, and Oregon, Utah, Arizona, and Alabama, Auburn on the really bad side over the #100 mark.

Creme now has the B12 with only four teams selected, while Tulane just got reentered as a selection despite the loss to ECU, so this just shows the basketball gods must be crazy -- or smart for once.

 

[UcMiami]

That OP was not supposed to be a knock on Baylor or the Big 12 - just a reflection of surprise in actually looking closer at the conference records and how the strength this year has dissipated.
Looking at the SEC and ACC also shows a bit of leveling off as well. While both the Pac12 and Big10 are a bit stronger than usual.
And on reflection the AAC with USF and Tulane behind Uconn is not as dire as some people make out. Based on most rankings and polls as far as the top two/three teams the AAC is about equal to the Big12 - after that there is no comparison but the top end is comparable.

 

[DobbsRover2]

The Big East was a two-team Tournament conference in the mid 1990s when UConn was beginning to ease into its era of domination, and it wasn't until 1998 that it got up to 4 teams, the minimum it would have in the 2000s (in 2000 and again in 2005) when the BEast would emerge as the conference with by far the best winning percentage, NC titles, and most teams in the Tournament. That the AAC is already in its first year of settled status is possibly getting three and looking at the potential for four teams in the near future with currently four teams in the top 50 is definitely a nice sign.