Nothing Is Going To Change

[xoxxox]

Once again, like last year for instance, the media and the woman's college basketball world are gearing up for the SHOWDOWN in February between the pseudo number one team South Carolina and the actual number one team, UCONN. WE heard all the same stuff last year about UCONN and Notre Dame. It makes for good headlines, helps create interest in the sport, and gives sports writers something to do. However, the reality
is really quiet simple - History, the odds, and common sense favor UCONN over SC. If they played ten times,
UCONN would win at least 8 of them - possible all of them - we will see really soon. If, UCONN loses, it will be by a couple of points - IF, IF, IF. But, If UCONN wins, ( a very probable IF) it will be by double digits, and another make-believe contender to UCONN will fully understand their inferiority in the real world of woman's college basketball.

 

[EricLA]

Welcome to the party!

 

[DobbsRover2]

I tested the idea on the Massey Matchup simulator, where UConn is between a 15 to 17 point favorite hosting USCar, depending on whether you refer to median, mean, or most likely values. Running the simulator for ten separate games, the results I got were:

Win by 6, Win by 20, Win by 9, Win by 31, Win by 12, Win by 11, Win by 20, Win by 12, Win by 14, Win by 11. Record 10-0 with average margin of 14.6.

But if you set it up for a neutral site, 5 home and 5 away, or 10 away, you would certainly get results closer to 8-2 on average.

 

[NewCorn]

The NewCorn simulator yields Uconn by 25.

 

[wire chief]

Given these comments, expain why SC will fare worse vs us than did St. Johns.

 

[Intpseeker]

Given these comments, expain why SC will fare worse vs us than did St. Johns.

This is why they actually play the game rather than simply run simulations.

There are 10 players and three zebras on the floor at any given time. That is an amazing amount of variables to account for.

This will be a cage match, but this team has been there and done that, AAC not withstanding. Their focus, conditioning, and faith in each other will serve them well.

 

[mr006]

Would be interesting to run the simulation for UConn @ Stanford now... and back then, if possible. Stuff happens. I would think that UC should win, possibly handily, but a nod to the mojo gods never hurts.

Not to mention, a closer battle makes for a more exciting game. After two months of discussing whether we will win by 40 or 50, a challenge is welcome.

 

[meyers7]

Their focus, conditioning, and faith in each other will serve them well.

LOL, you sound like Gandalf.

 

[Wbbfan1]

Geno in the recent games has been attempting to pound the ball into the paint with highly successful results. Does any1 think the team will be able to successfully use that strategy against South Carolina's superior height? Will Geno's strategy in the South Carolina game use his teams superior outside shooting as the strategy?

 

[DobbsRover2]

Would be interesting to run the simulation for UConn @ Stanford now... and back then, if possible. Stuff happens. I would think that UC should win, possibly handily, but a nod to the mojo gods never hurts.

Not to mention, a closer battle makes for a more exciting game. After two months of discussing whether we will win by 40 or 50, a challenge is welcome.

You can't reset the November conditions for simulation on Massey, but a UConn at Stanford game has the numbers at 17, 18, 18 for median, mean, and most likely values, so slightly higher than for hosting USCar. My ten game simulation run resulted in UConn now getting a 10-0 record with a 19.3 average margin, but one of the games was a win by 6, so unexpected things can happen.

 

[rugbymate]

Geno in the recent games has been attempting to pound the ball into the paint with highly successful results. Does any1 think the team will be able to successfully use that strategy against South Carolina's superior height? Will Geno's strategy in the South Carolina game use his teams superior outside shooting as the strategy?

The three ball will be very important in the SC game and one of the risks we face is if we have an ECU game 3 pt shooting percentage. That is one of the reasons i think Tuck will be asked to look to score in the paint so the defense collapses and lets her kick it out if there is no shot. If there bigs are allowed to spread their defense it will be potentially disruptive to three point shots , particularly from the corner.

 

[DobbsRover2]

The three ball will be very important in the SC game and one of the risks we face is if we have an ECU game 3 pt shooting percentage. That is one of the reasons i think Tuck will be asked to look to score in the paint so the defense collapses and lets her kick it out if there is no shot. If there bigs are allowed to spread their defense it will be potentially disruptive to three point shots , particularly from the corner.

True that, but UConn was shooting at 70% inside the arc, so when you're scoring at that rate inside, it's very hard to shoot 3s at a rate that makes them the better choice. UConn averages 20 threes attempts per game and only took 11 on Wednesday and just 17 combined in the two games against the Pirates, and when you have an undersized team that you can exploit inside, that's what you focus on.

For all the carping going on about playing AAC teams, it is really the perfect confidence-building environment to refine all those offensive maneuvers like passing to the inside cutters or working the ball in and out for a three or getting in for an offensive rebound and put back. The AAC teams provide just enough of a challenge to help the Huskies constantly refine their technique against the new wrinkles thrown at them while not being a frustrating chippy messes against say an ND team that does not provide the usual conditions UConn sees against other teams, good or bad. Sure, they will face teams ahead with tougher D than ECU and they will know that they have to take more care with the ball and probe harder for weak points to exploit. And the last three games against ND have shown that Geno has the Irish tactics pretty much controlled for, so the arsenal of attacks on the good teams seem to be pretty well formed.

 

[Tonyc]

Good thought on ST Johns. St Johns was very quick and imo their quickness is what kept the score down. Now don't forget at one point St Johns hit a lot of circus shots. With that said UConns 3 pt shooting is going to play a big part in this game. I don't see all 5 starters not hitting a good percentage of their treys. Some staters may have an off game others wont. SC against top teams averages approx. 66 pts per game. Against UConn I see that less not more. UConn averages 82 pts per game against top teams and against SC I think they are right around that number. I think the refs let them play and I think UConns bigs ability to penetrate and hit outside shots will play a major role.

Bottom line UConn has to many weapons and way to much. SC fans are new to this and imo don't have a lot of knowledge on UConn and how they operate. UConn is not just another top team UConn is at a whole different level then any other team in WCBB. SC will be pumped for this game and most likely will start like a lion until UConns defense settles in. When it does the game will change quickly as SC is not a team that score a lot of points.

I expect SC to try and slow the game down working the ball inside and UCOnns defense to take over. I expect UConn to rebound and run. I don't expect a very close game. UConn is at a very high level right now and most of all UConn is playing with a lot of confidence and confidence is what you need in big games like this.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Since most to all of both team's games are against opponents of lesser quality than who they will be playing on Feb. 9, you can't read too closely into the stats, but a few generalities stand out.

1. USCar goes to the FT line about 33% more times than UConn, though they don't shoot that well there at 67%. But USCar gets about 18% of its points from the line while for UConn it's around 13% on a little better FT shooting. However, at least part of the difference with the FT shooting revolves around point #2.

2. UConn shoots about 38% more 3-pters than USCar and hits them at a much higher rate. UConn gets 27% of its points on 3s, while USCar gets 19% there. But of course arc shooting leads to less FTs.

3. The Block Wars. UConn smiteth at a rate of 8.15 bpg and gets smited back at a rate of 2.15 bpg. USCar blocks at a good 6.20 bpg and gets blocked at 3.15 bpg. So neither team is used to getting blocked much though UConn is blocking at a record pace and USCar has chicken wings that can extend pretty well too. Something's gotta give here, but there may be some extra hungry Huskies on an even more visible national stage.

 

[Intpseeker]

LOL, you sound like Gandalf.

If my avatar was right...