Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 1h1 hour ago
Fans make the mistake of focusing on the strengths of their program & perceived improvement as a member of the P5.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 1h1 hour ago
But conferences don't give goodwill valuations. A program is judged on its numbers.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 1h1 hour ago
Just one area of weakness can be devastating.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 1h1 hour ago
BYU has honor code/LBGT issues that threaten their pole position. They must satisfy B12 leadership those areas are fixed.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 1h1 hour ago
Every program has its warts.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 1h1 hour ago
So what does the B12 need if the money is the same regardless?
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 1h1 hour ago
The B12 needs: 1. Programs that enhance/do not degrade the football reputation of the conference.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 60m60 minutes ago
2. Fit within the Big 12 culture with similar facilities & commitment to football.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 60m60 minutes ago
3. Enhance (or do not detract from) the academic reputation of the conference.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 59m59 minutes ago
4. Show the potential/commitment to grow the football program & become a market leader.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 58m58 minutes ago
5. Expand the footprint of the conference for recruiting & potential network down the line.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 58m58 minutes ago
6. Are acceptable to the Big 12's TV partners.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 57m57 minutes ago
Realistically you have 5 (6 counting UCF) programs that met those criteria.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 57m57 minutes ago
So start sorting them out by the programs with the fewest warts.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 55m55 minutes ago
Now give the most weight to TV ratings & the last, say 5 years, of football. What order so you have them?
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 43m43 minutes ago
I'm over simplifying for the sake of illustration. My point is that very quickly a stratification of candidates emerges.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 41m41 minutes ago
BYU is alone in group A. Group B has UC, UH & UCF. Group C has UCONN, Memphis, CSU. Group F has Tulane.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 36m36 minutes ago
Taking everything in consideration the top 3 are BYU, UC, UH. The next 5 are UCONN, UCF, CSU, Memphis & Tulane.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 34m34 minutes ago
That's just the starting point. Now you have to build a consensus.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 34m34 minutes ago
UT, OU & ESPN/Fox have more influence than the rest but every vote is important when any 3 votes black balls a school.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 33m33 minutes ago
So now let's look at the motivations for each of the influence peddlers.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 32m32 minutes ago
Texas has enough votes pledged to kill expansion completely. They can make sure that any candidate has 3 no votes.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 32m32 minutes ago
So UH is assured a spot if the Big 12 expands at all. I know UH doesn't currently have 8 votes. I said that last week. They will.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 31m31 minutes ago
What does OU want from expansion. The money is the same. So what motivates OU. The 15% increase in playoff odds from 12/2 & $ from 14.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 30m30 minutes ago
OU wants the best programs available. That's BYU & UH right now. But OH doesn't want to elevate UH for the same reasons WVU doesn't want UC
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 29m29 minutes ago
So OU's top choices are BYU & UC - in that order.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 29m29 minutes ago
Texas wants BYU & UH.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 28m28 minutes ago
The networks want the hottest programs with the best TV ratings. If the B12 must expand then BYU is their #1 choice. UH has better # than UC
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 26m26 minutes ago
Obviously some combo of BYU, UH & UC are locks for 11 & 12 or 11-13 if they hit 14.
hristopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 26m26 minutes ago
The wildcard is the issues BYU is having with the Baylor butterfly effect.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 25m25 minutes ago
I'm going to say if BYU isn't part of expansion there is no feasible way the B12 could expand to 14 without ESPN/Fox revolting.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 23m23 minutes ago
With BYU, UH & UC the Big 12 likely okay expanding to 14 with ESPN/Fox after the details are worked out. Who 14 is really doesn't matter.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 23m23 minutes ago
Either UCONN or UCF are safe bets at 14. But because of WVU I say it's UC or UCF not both.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 23m23 minutes ago
But my gut says that CSU would be 14. Why?
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 21m21 minutes ago
Neither UCONN, UCF or Memphis are ever going to dominate their home markets in football.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 20m20 minutes ago
But CSU has a chance to be the CFB leader in Co/Denver. CSU doesn't have any real warts. They have the highest ceiling of any candidate.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 19m19 minutes ago
So look at the motivations for each current B12 school & ask why do they support expansion? How do they benefit?
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 18m18 minutes ago
Are there any issues that would make them support one candidate over another?
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 18m18 minutes ago
I know this too. WVU is far more respected in the B12 than the average fan wants to believe.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 17m17 minutes ago
WVU's Oliver Luck was the 1st B12 rep on the playoff committee & Dr. Gee was on the expansion committee. Gee has considerable clout.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 15m15 minutes ago
So when everything is said & done I think the B12 adds only BYU & UH. Or if they go to 14 it's BYU, UH, UCONN & CSU.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 14m14 minutes ago
Yes I think WVU will find a way to block UC. That's the only reason UC wouldn't make it.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 13m13 minutes ago
But, despite my prediction, if the B12 adds 4 I don't see any realistic way UC isn't in the top 3 despite WVU's protests.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 11m11 minutes ago
If the B12 goes to 14 they likely tell WVU if OU can accept UH then you have to accept UC so shut up & be happy counting your money.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 10m10 minutes ago
Expansion is very simple on one level but it has a ton of complex factors that come into play none more important than self interest.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 10m10 minutes ago
The SEC & B1G are unified & usually make decisions in the best interest of the conference as a whole.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 8m8 minutes ago
The Big 12 is different. Schools pursue their own agendas first & if the rest of the conf benefits that's just to bad.