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MSMoose

http:// cincinnati.247sports.com / Board /39/ Contents /Swingtime-April-2016-Expansion-Thread-44593086?Page=15#M45018055

Unless ESPN and Fox Sports come to some miracle agreement (not looking good), a B12 Network and expansion are dead.Texas has too much power here to play the cards;

First, Texas has the lucrative Longhorn Network and ESPN.
Second, Texas receives a larger portion of B12 revenue annually than other members.
Third, Texas has an out to the ACC, in a Notre Dame type agreement.

Texas, is not using its power position to push ESPN forward, rather they are sitting back and doing as ESPN wants.

Unless something changes, I see a major unraveling of the B12 coming. Many B12 schools have safe harbors, West Virginia to the ACC, Oklahoma and Kansas to the Big 10, and Iowa State and Texas Tech (maybe more) to the PAC 12 (assuming PAC 12 sells network to Fox Sports).

ESPN and Fox Sports would both benefit greatly if the B12 dissolves. Fox Sports can buy into the PAC 12 Network and utilize its regional networks for distribution (they own the majority of B12 rd tier rights now). ESPN would increase the market share of the Longhorn Network, while using it to piggyback a new ACC Network.

By the way, it appears a team of CBS\NBS\ and Turner may take the 2nd half of the Big Ten rights deal. ESPN still has not bid, I am told. Fox Sports appears poised to outbid all for the B10 CCG.


This is similar to the scenario that He1nousOne put out at another message board. He also had KU/OU to Big Ten and Texsa to ACC as a semi-independent.
 

pj

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How does West Virginia have a safe harbor in the ACC? Who would be their partner?

Maybe if Texas has a ND-like deal with the ACC, Texas balances ND and ACC could bring in two full members.
 
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Unless something changes, I see a major unraveling of the B12 coming. Many B12 schools have safe harbors, West Virginia to the ACC, Oklahoma and Kansas to the Big 10, and Iowa State and Texas Tech (maybe more) to the PAC 12 (assuming PAC 12 sells network to Fox Sports).

I am just not seeing this...if you are a Big12 program not named UT, OU or, to a much lesser extend, KU and Okie St, how can you feel comfortable knowing you'll have a safe landing place if the B12 explodes? Even OU and KU, which are decent candidates for the BIG, are not absolute locks. If I was the BIG I would much prefer UT, ND, and UNC (perhaps even UVa) before OU or KU.

IMO the program with the least amount of options is WVU. At least the other B12 programs may have opportunities with the PAC but WVU is an east coast program whose best potential option is the ACC. I just do not see WVU being a prime candidate for either the SEC or BIG. Saying the ACC is a "safe harbor" for WVU is akin to saying UConn is a lock for the ACC. Both UConn and WVU have been passed over by the ACC yet suddenly WVU is a given? Don't get me wrong I believe both UConn and WVU should be in the ACC but we've already seen the ACC is incapable of strategic business decisions when it comes to conference realignment. If it comes down to UConn or WVU for the ACC I like UConn's chances.

The quickest way to insure the complete destruction of the current ACC is to start passing out more sweet heart deals. We've all seen what ND did to the old BE and now the ACC is falling into the same trap. Offering UT a similar deal to ND would only insure the ACC ship takes on water even faster. The ACC already has programs like FSU who feel they aren't getting their due influence and proceeds. Make FSU an official second class financial citizen and watch what happens. Ironically, despite FSU's vocal outcry, they may be a successful football program which no other conference wants (I guess we will see if the BIG lowers its prior admission standards to select FSU). But there is no way a program like UNC is going to play 3rd fiddle to UT and ND when they could make twice the money in the BIG/SEC. I suppose the "new" ACC could end up with semi-independent UT/ND anchors taking way more than anyone else and the rest of the programs who can't get offers into the BIG/SEC being stuck with accepting an unequal partnership.

It sounds like OU and UT are fully preparing their eventual Big12 exit strategies and certainly they will end up ok. In the interim they are spreading the B12 propaganda that "everyone in the B12 will be fine." The reality is a lot of programs won't be fine and they will later look back on the upcoming expansion vote and wonder why they listened to UT/OU. It is lot easier to accept bad advice from people one views as a "friend" but sadly there are no friends when it comes to conference realignment.


 
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This is similar to the scenario that He1nousOne put out at another message board. He also had KU/OU to Big Ten and Texsa to ACC as a semi-independent.


He1nousOne says that UConn is going to end up in the ACC.
 

dayooper

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He1nousOne says that UConn is going to end up in the ACC.

That's as accurate as TheDudeofWVU saying WVU has a spot in the SEC waiting for them.

UConn could actually be landing in the ACC and would be a good fit (would be a better fit in the Big10, though), but not because Heinous1 says so. That guy is as knowledgeable as The Dude.
 
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All depends on if the Big 12 starts to unravel first, or if the Big Ten is looking East and is content to wait out the ACC GoR.

Either way I think Delany wants UConn, but a +6 can be drawn up without UConn if ND or FSU are in play, or if there are 2 teams from Texas that want in.
 
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All depends on if the Big 12 starts to unravel first, or if the Big Ten is looking East and is content to wait out the ACC GoR.

Either way I think Delany wants UConn, but a +6 can be drawn up without UConn if ND or FSU are in play, or if there are 2 teams from Texas that want in.

There's only one team in Texas that the Big Ten would have any interest in.
 
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Want, for the B1G, and A&M interest may be a wee bit different. The Aggies found, and likely are quite happy with their pot of gold.

There could be interest/pressure to get the UT and aTm band back together.

That, and ESPN has a cash problem with LHN. B1G has cash, and could hammer out a deal to ESPN's liking. It's a long shot.
 
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MSMoose

http:// cincinnati. / Board /39/ Contents /Swingtime-April-2016-Expansion-Thread-44593086?Page=15#M45018055

Unless ESPN and Fox Sports come to some miracle agreement (not looking good), a B12 Network and expansion are dead.Texas has too much power here to play the cards;

First, Texas has the lucrative Longhorn Network and ESPN.
Second, Texas receives a larger portion of B12 revenue annually than other members.
Third, Texas has an out to the ACC, in a Notre Dame type agreement.

Texas, is not using its power position to push ESPN forward, rather they are sitting back and doing as ESPN wants.

Unless something changes, I see a major unraveling of the B12 coming. Many B12 schools have safe harbors, West Virginia to the ACC, Oklahoma and Kansas to the Big 10, and Iowa State and Texas Tech (maybe more) to the PAC 12 (assuming PAC 12 sells network to Fox Sports).

ESPN and Fox Sports would both benefit greatly if the B12 dissolves. Fox Sports can buy into the PAC 12 Network and utilize its regional networks for distribution (they own the majority of B12 rd tier rights now). ESPN would increase the market share of the Longhorn Network, while using it to piggyback a new ACC Network.

By the way, it appears a team of CBS\NBS\ and Turner may take the 2nd half of the Big Ten rights deal. ESPN still has not bid, I am told. Fox Sports appears poised to outbid all for the B10 CCG.


This is similar to the scenario that He1nousOne put out at another message board. He also had KU/OU to Big Ten and Texsa to ACC as a semi-independent.

This MSMoose you quote, CoastAtlantic, writes authoritatively but aside from the dubious assumption dwalks 93 pointed out about "safe harbors," MSMoose also loses some credibility for a couple of factual inaccuracies as well.

Texas does not receive a larger portion of B12 revenue annually than other members. The Big 12 distributes revenue evenly except for new members like TCU and WVU who initially take lesser payouts.

And Fox Sports does not own the majority of 3rd Tier rights. Fox Sports owns 2nd Tier rights behind ESPN's 1st Tier rights. Each Big 12 school owns their own 3rd Tier rights.

I also tend to question a few of MSMoose's other assumptions as well. While it's possible ESPN and Fox Sports could both benefit greatly from the Big 12 dissolving, that's a complete 180 from 2010 when they both played a very large role in keeping the Big 12 together. And while I suppose it's possible Fox Sports could buy into the Pac-12 network, one of the Pac-12 network's badges of pride has been its independence from outside companies. And while I suppose it's possible that Texas has a Notre Dame type agreement with the ACC, I really doubt that too.
 
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More from MSMoose: http:// cincinnati.247sports.com /Reply / MSMoose-Reply-45053367

Provided to me this A.M.. I am only posting the top 3 on the list, as list is rather lengthy.

FBS Analytics (April 14, 2016)

Big 12:
Core Academic Rating 117 (High 175 – Low 52)
R&D (2 members top 50)
Core Ath. Budget 25th (High 47 – Low 2)
Core Endowment 95th (High 177 – Low 2)
Core DMA 67th (High 144 – Low 5)
DMA subscribers avg. 2.4 mil. (High 8.3 mil. – Low 543k)

Candidates:

Cincinnati
Academic Rating 140th – (+23)
R&D 50th – (0)
Ath. Budget 54th – (+29 (subsidy 42.9 mil.))
Endowment 78th – (- 17)
DMA – 36th – (-29)
DMA Avg. subscribers avg. 3 mil. – (- .57 mil.)

Connecticut (Score)
Academic Rating 57thth – (-60)
R&D –(Non-Top 50)
Ath. Budget 48th – (+23 (subsidy 36.8 mil.))
Endowment 211th – (+ 116)
DMA – 30th – (-37)
DMA Avg. subscribers avg. 3.45 mil. – (-1.05 mil.)

South Florida
Academic Rating 156thth – (+ 39)
R&D 41st – (0)
Ath. Budget 59th – (+34 (subsidy 46.8 mil.))
Endowment 195h – (+ 100)
DMA – 11th – (-56)
DMA Avg. subscribers avg. 3.4 mil. – (-1.00 mil.)

Ironic folks do not talk much about USF, mostly due to lack of on field success, and the use of non-university facilities. However, looking at the above one can see why Texas scheduled USF in future non-conference play, very valuable market!

Cincinnati and USF bring top 50 R&D to the table, that no other candidates bring, which is very valuable to voting Presidents. Cincinnati and UCONN are clear favorites, based on the analysis.

Per my colleagues, Texas covets the Florida market, however no one in B12 wants a member geographically defeated which USF would be. Their is not support in the analysis for a combination of USF and UCF. Surprisingly, Temple looks good, but also faces similar perceptions as USF does.

For those BYU lovers in the press, BYU challenges the three candidates above in Academic Rating, Endowment, and Athletic Budget, but not in DMA, DMA subscribers or R&D. Keep in mind though BYU has a national reach, others don't.
 
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More from MSMoose: http:// cincinnati. /Reply / MSMoose-Reply-45053367

Provided to me this A.M.. I am only posting the top 3 on the list, as list is rather lengthy.

FBS Analytics (April 14, 2016)

Big 12:
Core Academic Rating 117 (High 175 – Low 52)
R&D (2 members top 50)
Core Ath. Budget 25th (High 47 – Low 2)
Core Endowment 95th (High 177 – Low 2)
Core DMA 67th (High 144 – Low 5)
DMA subscribers avg. 2.4 mil. (High 8.3 mil. – Low 543k)

Candidates:

Cincinnati
Academic Rating 140th – (+23)
R&D 50th – (0)
Ath. Budget 54th – (+29 (subsidy 42.9 mil.))
Endowment 78th – (- 17)
DMA – 36th – (-29)
DMA Avg. subscribers avg. 3 mil. – (- .57 mil.)

Connecticut (Score)
Academic Rating 57thth – (-60)
R&D –(Non-Top 50)
Ath. Budget 48th – (+23 (subsidy 36.8 mil.))
Endowment 211th – (+ 116)
DMA – 30th – (-37)
DMA Avg. subscribers avg. 3.45 mil. – (-1.05 mil.)

South Florida
Academic Rating 156thth – (+ 39)
R&D 41st – (0)
Ath. Budget 59th – (+34 (subsidy 46.8 mil.))
Endowment 195h – (+ 100)
DMA – 11th – (-56)
DMA Avg. subscribers avg. 3.4 mil. – (-1.00 mil.)

Ironic folks do not talk much about USF, mostly due to lack of on field success, and the use of non-university facilities. However, looking at the above one can see why Texas scheduled USF in future non-conference play, very valuable market!

Cincinnati and USF bring top 50 R&D to the table, that no other candidates bring, which is very valuable to voting Presidents. Cincinnati and UCONN are clear favorites, based on the analysis.

Per my colleagues, Texas covets the Florida market, however no one in B12 wants a member geographically defeated which USF would be. Their is not support in the analysis for a combination of USF and UCF. Surprisingly, Temple looks good, but also faces similar perceptions as USF does.

For those BYU lovers in the press, BYU challenges the three candidates above in Academic Rating, Endowment, and Athletic Budget, but not in DMA, DMA subscribers or R&D. Keep in mind though BYU has a national reach, others don't.

How is DMA 30th for UConn? Take a look at the state. UConn is not = Hartford. UConn = Connecticut. This is the equivalent of saying Penn State's DMA = Philadelphia.
 

FfldCntyFan

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When Gee was president of Ohio State he was quite pompous, now that he's resumed the position of president of West Virginia University it's kind of difficult to be present that front.
 
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News and Notes from Around the Big 12

9. Although rumors have been swirling for months, the Sports Business Journal dropped a bombshell about the Big Ten’s negotiations with Fox, which we should expect to be wrapped up by this summer. I will have an article on it on its own in a week or two, but the most important part of the rumor had to do with it only being six years long, ending right as the Pac 12 and Big 12 contracts end. Many have speculated this means the Big Ten is preparing for an expansion move, but I’ve heard a few things to indicate it may be looking at the college sports media game differently. It is generally assumed that for the Big Ten to gain more markets for its network that it has to expand with schools to join its conference. However, word out of Chicago is that fourteen is already a difficult number to handle and expanding even more threatens to make it worse. Instead there is talk of using the Big Ten Network’s infrastructure to envelop the Big 12 for Texas and possibly the Pac 12 for the West Coast utilizing a common connection through Fox. These would not be conference expansion/mergers, but instead a media expansion/merger, as if the Big Ten Network was the Pac 12 and Big 12’s Tier Three media partner. This would turn the channel from conference centric to college sports centric, much like ESPNU. Games would be mirrored so each areas games played in their local footprint, allow BTN to charge higher rates in more areas, and feature scheduled out of conference games between the partners. While this allows the Big Ten and other conferences to sell more content to broadcasters as well, the ultimate goal would be to contain the SEC. Stay tuned.
 

whaler11

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So the Big Ten Network is going to somehow broadcast games owned by other networks?

I guess the PAC 12 didn't sell their rights and they don't have a network?

The media entities that own the B12 T3 rights will just let another network televise?
 
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So the Big Ten Network is going to somehow broadcast games owned by other networks?

I guess the PAC 12 didn't sell their rights and they don't have a network?

The media entities that own the B12 T3 rights will just let another network televise?

Texas goes from refusing to subsidize the B12 to subsidizing the B10! With none of the perks!
 
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I can't be the only one who feels this way...

I was fairly optimistic when talks were hot before and we were getting decent buzz. However, I was pretty relieved when it seemed Big12 expansion died. As bad as being in this conference is its at least sustainable as long no one else bolts. Could you imagine being in this league without, let's say, Cincy and Temple? If the Big12 doesn't expand that can't happen. With word coming out the meetings that expansion is still very much on the table I just have a bad feeling.
 
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If there's any resolution to this realignment I would want UConn in the ACC, play Ball So Hard U vs Duke, NC, State, Cuse, Ville, etc.. Instead, I read about football attendance and hoping the Big 12 come off its ass. I'm sorry that it played out the way it did but I had no control over the situation. Maybe there's still a slight chance, if the presidents can see the wisdom.
 

nelsonmuntz

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MSMoose has been tending towards expansion not happening, and he seems to know what he is talking about. Flugs goes the other direction.

The Texas AD's comments were clearly very negative.

The Big 10 TV Agreement was clearly an earthquake, but it may have affected different programs differently. I still don't see the end game for the Big 12 schools outside of Texas and maybe Oklahoma. Not expanding looks like a suicide mission.
 
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I can't be the only one who feels this way...

I was fairly optimistic when talks were hot before and we were getting decent buzz. However, I was pretty relieved when it seemed Big12 expansion died. As bad as being in this conference is its at least sustainable as long no one else bolts. Could you imagine being in this league without, let's say, Cincy and Temple? If the Big12 doesn't expand that can't happen. With word coming out the meetings that expansion is still very much on the table I just have a bad feeling.

We just go around in circles. In another thread, we're back to discussing will the ACC really let the Big 12 take us. None of it makes sense.
 
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The Texas AD's comments were clearly very negative.

Yes, they were, which surprised me. The new regime had been pretty quiet and I was hopeful they were much smarter and more agreeable than their brash predecessors, but maybe it's just more of the same detrimental hubris.

At this particular time, I suppose they can sit on their cherished LHN, refuse to make concessions and let the Big 12 crumble all around them. But that's extremely shortsighted, and as such it's a stubborn gamble they will ultimately lose.

Very disappointing.
 
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Yes, they were, which surprised me. The new regime had been pretty quiet and I was hopeful they were much smarter and more agreeable than their brash predecessors, but maybe it's just more of the same detrimental hubris.

At this particular time, I suppose they can sit on their cherished LHN, refuse to make concessions and let the Big 12 crumble all around them. But that's extremely shortsighted, and as such it's a stubborn gamble they will ultimately lose.

Very disappointing.

What does UT really lose?

If the goal is to keep the B12 together than you're right, they will likely lose. But, that doesn't appear to be their incentive in all of this.

UT appears to only be concerned with their revenues and the fact that they will have a significant revenue advantage over their B12 rivals (i.e. Oklahoma) for as long as the B12 lasts. UT is certain that if/when the B12 blows up they will probably have a choice of new conference homes. They may even be able to make a deal with the ACC to join the conference and keep the LHN.

While folks outside of Austin all say how shortsighted UT is being, in reality, they are the only ones who truly control their own destiny.
 
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