Drew
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3 AAC teams 2 of which we are scheduled to play.. thought these were interesting write-ups:
No mo: 10 teams with minimal momentum heading into 2016
5. Tulsa
First four games: 51st percentile; Last four games: 30th percentile
Tulsa started only 2-2 against FBS opponents last season, but the losses came against two of the best teams in the nation in Oklahoma and Houston. The Golden Hurricane lost three of their last four, including a blowout home loss at the hands of Navy (44-14 before garbage time kicked in). Tulsa's 2016 projection is dire as well, and a return trip to a bowl is doubtful. It will face Ohio State in Columbus on Sept. 10, and has a 63 percent chance of losing four of its last five games.
7. Navy
First four games: 77th percentile: Last four games: 58th percentile
The Midshipmen had one of their best seasons in recent memory and made a valiant run at the American Athletic Conference title deep into the year. Navy's drop-off in efficiency over the course of the year wasn't obvious, but its final four games included a 21-point loss to Houston and a struggle against rival Army that ranks as its worst performance of the season, despite claiming a 21-17 victory. Without quarterback Keenan Reynolds in 2016, we're not forecasting a fall off of a cliff, but Navy should fall back to the middle of the conference standings.
10. Cincinnati
First four games: 50th percentile; Last four games 34th percentile
It was an up-and-down year for Cincinnati throughout the 2015 season -- only once did the Bearcats string together consecutive wins. But their first four games included close losses to decent teams in Temple and Memphis. The final stretch, however, included blowout losses to USF and San Diego State by a combined 73 points. Is this season an audition of sorts for the Bearcats to secure a Big 12 conference invitation? It will come down to a number of toss-up games. Our projections give Cincinnati no worse than a 35 percent chance and no better than a 65 percent chance of victory in each of their last eight games.
No mo: 10 teams with minimal momentum heading into 2016
5. Tulsa
First four games: 51st percentile; Last four games: 30th percentile
Tulsa started only 2-2 against FBS opponents last season, but the losses came against two of the best teams in the nation in Oklahoma and Houston. The Golden Hurricane lost three of their last four, including a blowout home loss at the hands of Navy (44-14 before garbage time kicked in). Tulsa's 2016 projection is dire as well, and a return trip to a bowl is doubtful. It will face Ohio State in Columbus on Sept. 10, and has a 63 percent chance of losing four of its last five games.
7. Navy
First four games: 77th percentile: Last four games: 58th percentile
The Midshipmen had one of their best seasons in recent memory and made a valiant run at the American Athletic Conference title deep into the year. Navy's drop-off in efficiency over the course of the year wasn't obvious, but its final four games included a 21-point loss to Houston and a struggle against rival Army that ranks as its worst performance of the season, despite claiming a 21-17 victory. Without quarterback Keenan Reynolds in 2016, we're not forecasting a fall off of a cliff, but Navy should fall back to the middle of the conference standings.
10. Cincinnati
First four games: 50th percentile; Last four games 34th percentile
It was an up-and-down year for Cincinnati throughout the 2015 season -- only once did the Bearcats string together consecutive wins. But their first four games included close losses to decent teams in Temple and Memphis. The final stretch, however, included blowout losses to USF and San Diego State by a combined 73 points. Is this season an audition of sorts for the Bearcats to secure a Big 12 conference invitation? It will come down to a number of toss-up games. Our projections give Cincinnati no worse than a 35 percent chance and no better than a 65 percent chance of victory in each of their last eight games.