My Big 12 Confidence Meter Rising

[UConnDan97]

It's been a while since you've had a "glass 1/4 full" post from me during these Husky dog days of summer, but here comes the latest installment from the board optimist:

I have UConn going to the Big 12 at a 90% likelihood right now. I would say 100%, but then we would be doooomed. The reason I say that is due to what almost certainly motivated the Big12 to vote for expansion in the first place; TV. The ACC network gets done, and immediately, the Big12 is ready to roll.

Well folks, that is GREAT news for our beloved University of Connecticut. The Big12 knows that there are two properties out there that are essential to driving their TV set demands; UConn and BYU. Everyone else is a far cry away. See you at the prom, Mr. Bowlsby...

 

[Huskyforlife]

Rule 1

 

[FartMan69]

This is gonna suck

 

[LoyalFanCT]

Does anyone think that as the B12 takes a serious look at UConn both the B10 and the ACC will also have to consider if they want to lose UConn to a rival conference for decades? UConn has a lot to offer -- and is available for the asking.

 

[FartMan69]

Does anyone think that as the B12 takes a serious look at UConn both the B10 and the ACC will also have to consider if they want to lose UConn to a rival conference for decades? UConn has a lot to offer -- and is available for the asking.

We've been available, they're not interested. This is our shot.

 

[BUConn10]

If we are being completely honest with ourselves, I'm putting UConn's odds at acceptance in a 2 expansion team scenario at around 25%, if they decide to go to 4 teams then I'd say it's a 75% probability.

 

[sportsart]

Can't wait for your first regular season prediction of Big 12-0.

 

[junglehusky]

From the twittersphere it sounds like Cincy is in the catbird seat. Which makes BYU a potential spoiler for UConn. But UConn is at worst #3 in the pecking order (if you ignore media writers who are just tossing out their top 4 lists based on their personal opinion). So pray for expansion by 4, just to be sure.

 

[CTMike]

@UConnDan97 with the CR chubby!

 

[wethyhusky]

Click my heels three times and I get to go to a basketball game in Kansas? There's no place like home ...there's no place like home ...

 

[uconnphil2016]

If we are being completely honest with ourselves, I'm putting UConn's odds at acceptance in a 2 expansion team scenario at around 25%, if they decide to go to 4 teams then I'd say it's a 75% probability.

25%?!? Gotta be at least 50/50

 

[UConn Dan]

From the twittersphere it sounds like Cincy is in the catbird seat. Which makes BYU a potential spoiler for UConn. But UConn is at worst #3 in the pecking order (if you ignore media writers who are just tossing out their top 4 lists based on their personal opinion). So pray for expansion by 4, just to be sure.

#PrayFor4

 

[UConn990411]

From the twittersphere it sounds like Cincy is in the catbird seat. Which makes BYU a potential spoiler for UConn. But UConn is at worst #3 in the pecking order (if you ignore media writers who are just tossing out their top 4 lists based on their personal opinion). So pray for expansion by 4, just to be sure.

According to twitter, UConn to the ACC was a lock after Maryland bolted.

Don't get me wrong, I'm still expecting rule #1 to play out. But I don't buy that Cincy is a lock either. (If the B12 were smart, they'd lock up those 3 teams and another with high potential. But they ain't smart, so...)

 

[huskyniner]

 

[UConnDan97]

That's a recognizable Big12 name. I believe Ubben has covered the Big12 for both Fox and ESPN. The meter is rising, folks...

 

[UConn Dan]

@UConnDan97 with the CR chubby!

Heading for a full big 12!

We are f. uc king doomed and I love it!

 

[UConnNick]

Cautiously optimistic. It would seem the B12 has no choice but to expand now that the ACC is getting its network. I have a standing wager with another Husky alum that we go to the B10. He thinks we're going to the B12. I will never be so happy to lose a bet if he's right and I'm wrong.

 

[whaler11]

At this point there is really no way to predict what the Big 12 will do.

My opinion is that Texas wants to keep it together because they like being the Alpha. I don't think that Oklahoma has anywhere to go even if they could shake themselves loose of Oklahoma State. Those two assumptions lead me to believe that the Big 12 is still planning on staying together even with the ACCN news.

Based on what we believe about the Big 12 contract they have some leverage: They can go in a number of different ways with that leverage.

1. They can negotiate a sizable sum for their ten members, extend the TV contract and their GOR
2. They can negotiate some money and withhold a decent amount from two expansion schools
3. They can just add 4 new members and withhold as much as they can from the 4 additions and see what happens when the contract runs out

If I were running the Big 12 - I'd give up the pro rata clause for a bump and get my members to extend their GOR while adding two teams. The two clear choices to me are UConn and Cincinnati. Their first and third options are both short term solutions.

I think they will go in one of two directions (50/50) and they are both bad for us:
a. No expansion
b. Expand with Memphis and Cincinnati

People have all sorts of phobias - I don't think anyone has defined mine yet - for months it has been that if the Big 12 expands it will be with Memphis. It makes zero sense - but the Big 12's tag line could be: We Make Zero Sense.

 

[Ldandy]

If we are being completely honest with ourselves, I'm putting UConn's odds at acceptance in a 2 expansion team scenario at around 25%, if they decide to go to 4 teams then I'd say it's a 75% probability.

Despite having the overall best metrics, I'd be very nervous in a two team add scenario. If they go to 4 it is incredibly hard to argue against UCONN inclusion over other alternatives. Then again this is the Big 12 so they'll probably do a 4 team add of Houston, SMU, Rice, and Tulsa.

 

[CTGoonie]

We've been available, they're not interested. This is our shot.

We've been available but the ACC knew they could wait on us. 5 years ago they wanted UConn and Cuse but had to settle for Pitt and Cuse due to BC and others acting childish. 2 years ago UConn was the top choice to replace Maryland but they went with UL partly because they didn't want to risk losing them to the B12. UConn was viewed as not having any other suitors besides the ACC. The ACC may be launching a channel in 3 years but if they want the carriage fee's in the Northeast that the B1G has they are going to need more than just BC and Cuse.

 

[auggie22]

We've been available but the ACC knew they could wait on us. 5 years ago they wanted UConn and Cuse but had to settle for Pitt and Cuse due to BC and others acting childish. 2 years ago UConn was the top choice to replace Maryland but they went with UL partly because they didn't want to risk losing them to the B12. UConn was viewed as not having any other suitors besides the ACC. The ACC may be launching a channel in 3 years but if they want the carriage fee's in the Northeast that the B1G has they are going to need more than just BC and Cuse.

If the ACC was ever going to add us, it would have been in the spring when they were negotiating for a network in a race against the Big 12. I can only surmise that we don't help their chance for a network or for getting carriage in their footprint. There is literally no reason to add us now.

 

[Point6]

If the ACC was ever going to add us, it would have been in the spring when they were negotiating for a network in a race against the Big 12. I can only surmise that we don't help their chance for a network or for getting carriage in their footprint. There is literally no reason to add us now.

Unless it's announced later today.

 

[UConn Dan]

If the ACC was ever going to add us, it would have been in the spring when they were negotiating for a network in a race against the Big 12. I can only surmise that we don't help their chance for a network or for getting carriage in their footprint. There is literally no reason to add us now.

The reason to add UConn now is that the Big 12 is serious about expansion right now. We are the best addition left for the ACC and their new network. We don't know what language is in the contract for additions but I'm sure any addition would be pro rata at least.

The issue is they would only add us because they are keeping #16 open in perpetuity for ND and I'm not sure how a conference with unequal divisions would even work - how did MAC handle it?

You better believe the ACC presidents are at the very least talking about the possibility of adding us this morning.

 

[UConn990411]

Cautiously optimistic. It would seem the B12 has no choice but to expand now that the ACC is getting its network. I have a standing wager with another Husky alum that we go to the B10. He thinks we're going to the B12. I will never be so happy to lose a bet if he's right and I'm wrong.

I'll be ecstatic if either one of you lose that bet.

 

[06029]

Unless it's announced later today.

It will be in 20 minutes.

Thursday or Friday will be the ACC announcement since that is their media days in Charlotte.

Could be a scenario where the 2019 TV network launch coincides with an unknown early termination option for ND with NBC and that is when ND joins the ACC. Uconn joins in 2018 (2 year notification to the AAC). The 8 team ACC division is Uconn, Duke, Clemson, Miami, VT, NC State, Lville and Pitt. Everyone jumps for joy.

Okay, so it is only a dream, but the ACC is where Uconn belongs.