My analysis of the "List"

[nelsonmuntz]

So the list is:

BYU UCF Cincinnati UConn CSU UH Rice USF SMU Tulane

Winners:

Colorado State - time to start taking CSU seriously as an expansion candidate. It is a big school in a decent sized and rapidly growing market, and the athletic program is OK. I am also sure some Big 12 schools wouldn't mind sticking it to Colorado, who left the Big 12 with some burned bridges.

No change:

UConn, Cincinnati, BYU were always the front runners, and nothing has changed.

Losers:

Houston is a big loser with that list. Houston does not want to be on an expansion list with Rice and SMU on it, because now it is easier for the Big 12 to say no to all 3. UT, TCU, Baylor and Texas Tech can now plausibly split their support between the three schools, making none of them viable.

Memphis - I never thought Memphis was a realistic candidate for expansion, but not even making the first cut is embarrassing, and makes any further arguments about Memphis joining a P5 completely unrealistic. I am not rejoicing at all, because I think Memphis is an OK athletic program and I hate the system.

Boise - This program has accomplished so much, and no one cares.

Other:

Air Force - Politically, a military academy has to make the first cut in this process. They are not getting invited to join the Big 12.

Tulane - meh

USF/UCF - How can the Big 12 differentiate these two schools from each other? The Big 12 is not adding both, but I feel like neither is worth that much without the other.

Other Thoughts:

Random conspiracy theory - I will continue to assume that the Big 12 GOR is inviolate, but if Texas and some other Big 12 schools were looking for an invitation to another P5 league right now, shaking down the Pac 12 by threatening to add CSU and BYU would be a good way to do it. The Pac 12 Network is not doing well, and splitting two mid-sized states with the Big 12 won't help it.

Twitter Trolls - I don't have time to do it, but someone should find out which of the online "insiders" were pimping Memphis as an addition to the Big 12. That was transparent trolling of one of the largest online fanbases (Memphis) of any of the candidates, despite Memphis having no realistic chance of getting added. My memory is that the following Twitteratti were pimping Memphis: M H V E R, Dude, and MSMoose. Could someone confirm?

In a way, pimping Memphis was also trolling of UConn, since we were the ones most often knocked out for Memphis in the "insider updates" from those idiots.

Finally, it is worth noting that UConn was one of the Big East schools supportive of a soft landing for Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Baylor and Texas Tech when the Big 12 looked like it might come apart in 2011, and supported adding TCU to the Big East, thereby making TCU a viable candidate for the Big 12. I am surprised that hasn't come up once in all this expansion talk.

 

[FDNY99]

So the list is:

BYU UCF Cincinnati UConn CSU UH Rice USF SMU Tulane

Winners:

Colorado State - time to start taking CSU seriously as an expansion candidate. It is a big school in a decent sized and rapidly growing market, and the athletic program is OK. I am also sure some Big 12 schools wouldn't mind sticking it to Colorado, who left the Big 12 with some burned bridges.

No change:

UConn, Cincinnati, BYU were always the front runners, and nothing has changed.

Losers:

Houston is a big loser with that list. Houston does not want to be on an expansion list with Rice and SMU on it, because now it is easier for the Big 12 to say no to all 3. UT, TCU, Baylor and Texas Tech can now plausibly split their support between the three schools, making none of them viable.

Memphis - I never thought Memphis was a realistic candidate for expansion, but not even making the first cut is embarrassing, and makes any further arguments about Memphis joining a P5 completely unrealistic. I am not rejoicing at all, because I think Memphis is an OK athletic program and I hate the system.

Boise - This program has accomplished so much, and no one cares.

Other:

Air Force - Politically, a military academy has to make the first cut in this process. They are not getting invited to join the Big 12.

Tulane - meh

USF/UCF - How can the Big 12 differentiate these two schools from each other? The Big 12 is not adding both, but I feel like neither is worth that much without the other.

Other Thoughts:

Random conspiracy theory - I will continue to assume that the Big 12 GOR is inviolate, but if Texas and some other Big 12 schools were looking for an invitation to another P5 league right now, shaking down the Pac 12 by threatening to add CSU and BYU would be a good way to do it. The Pac 12 Network is not doing well, and splitting two mid-sized states with the Big 12 won't help it.

Twitter Trolls - I don't have time to do it, but someone should find out which of the online "insiders" were pimping Memphis as an addition to the Big 12. That was transparent trolling of one of the largest online fanbases (Memphis) of any of the candidates, despite Memphis having no realistic chance of getting added. My memory is that the following Twitteratti were pimping Memphis: M H V E R, Dude, and MSMoose. Could someone confirm?

In a way, pimping Memphis was also trolling of UConn, since we were the ones most often knocked out for Memphis in the "insider updates" from those idiots.

Finally, it is worth noting that UConn was one of the Big East schools supportive of a soft landing for Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Baylor and Texas Tech when the Big 12 looked like it might come apart in 2011, and supported adding TCU to the Big East, thereby making TCU a viable candidate for the Big 12. I am surprised that hasn't come up once in all this expansion talk.

The biggest Memphis to the B-12 booster on Twitter...who riled up that idiotic and moronic Memphis fanbase...is a guy named C. Austin Cox. He has been pushing memphis and Cincy for a while now. He is in full melt down, denial, a**cover mode right now. His twitter handle is @C_Austin_Cox

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I would add that if Flugs is right, keeping USF and UCF on the list may be a way to be able to provide a concession to ESPN later by dropping them from consideration.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

I kinda agree that putting Rice and SMU on the list is bad for UH because they can now say "we have decided to not add additional TX schools which is easier than knocking out UH alone.

. Not realistic.

CSU may scare me more than any other school.

USF/UCF. No way they add both this sh1tshows and they're worthless alone.

Tulane. Kinda interesting. They're always on the long of teams for every league but I don't think they're ever taken seriously. Feel like they're on to show us they're taking academics considertion seriously.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

It's fairly clear the real list is BYU, UC, UConn, Colorado State, UCF, and Houston. SMU, Rice, and Tulane are academic lip service, and Air Force as you noted is for political reasons - there's actually some indications that Air Force isn't interested in joining.

I disagree with your reasoning on Houston, though I think Memphis's cut hurts them a different way. Everyone knows SMU and Rice are nonsense candidates with no actual shot. Any B12 president who supports them for actual inclusion has no leg to stand on during internal conference discussions so the notion that the Texas university presidents can split their allegiance I don't see happening. What I do see bad for UH is that the Big 12 is clearly accounting for academics in some capacity. By knocking Memphis out now it opens the door for other presidents to say hey look, we already knocked out a school for their academics (the only real reason to cut UM at this point in favor of some of these other clown candidates) so I can't faithfully vote to add another school with a poor academic record.

 

[TRest]

Tulane's on campus facilities for football and hoops are so small they would have to take it all downtown, which never has worked for them in the past.

No analysis of Temple?

The Cincy realignment thread on csnbbs had a lot of Memphis/UC insiders.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

It's fairly clear the real list is BYU, UC, UConn, Colorado State, UCF, and Houston. SMU, Rice, and Tulane are academic lip service, and Air Force as you noted is for political reasons - there's actually some indications that Air Force isn't interested in joining.

I disagree with your reasoning on Houston, though I think Memphis's cut hurts them a different way. Everyone knows SMU and Rice are nonsense candidates with no actual shot. Any B12 president who supports them for actual inclusion has no leg to stand on during internal conference discussions so the notion that the Texas university presidents can split their allegiance I don't see happening. What I do see bad for UH is that the Big 12 is clearly accounting for academics in some capacity. By knocking Memphis out now it opens the door for other presidents to say hey look, we already knocked out a school for their academics (the only real reason to cut UM at this point in favor of some of these other clown candidates) so I can't faithfully vote to add another school with a poor academic record.

I think Houston is screwed. Rice and SMU athletic departments are calling every state legislator they can find right now to get support. They made the Final 12, and both make Houston look like a vocational school academically. Also, Rice and SMU have big endowments, which means lots of big time donors that will go to bat for them. There is no reason for either to stand down and let Houston go to the Big 12. I bet SMU can turn TCU into an advocate, which was likely the point of putting SMU and Rice on the list.

 

[CL82]

So the list is:

BYU UCF Cincinnati UConn CSU UH Rice USF SMU Tulane

Losers:

Houston is a big loser with that list. Houston does not want to be on an expansion list with Rice and SMU on it, because now it is easier for the Big 12 to say no to all 3. UT, TCU, Baylor and Texas Tech can now plausibly split their support between the three schools, making none of them viable.

Interesting observation Nelson. It also provides political cover for the politicians to not make their support UH specific. If no Texas team is on the list, it is a loss for Texas. I don't see that happening, unless it is done to give them a reason for a pouty exit.

Finally, it is worth noting that UConn was one of the Big East schools supportive of a soft landing for Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Baylor and Texas Tech when the Big 12 looked like it might come apart in 2011, and supported adding TCU to the Big East, thereby making TCU a viable candidate for the Big 12. I am surprised that hasn't come up once in all this expansion talk.

Another great point, at least as to Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Baylor and Texas Tech. I don't think it carries the day, but it could be helpful as a tie breaker or as a justification.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Interesting observation Nelson. It also provides political cover for the politicians to not make their support UH specific. If no Texas team is on the list, it is a loss for Texas. I don't see that happening, unless it is done to give them a reason for a pouty exit.


Another great point, at least as to Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Baylor and Texas Tech. I don't think it carries the day, but it could be helpful as a tie breaker or as a justification.

Looking at the cutdown list, I don't think Texas, TCU, Texas Tech or Baylor want another Texas team in the Big 12. They have created a scenario where now they don't have to take one.

The tiebreaker would also work to Cincinnati's benefit, but not to BYU's.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

I think Houston is screwed. Rice and SMU athletic departments are calling every state legislator they can find right now to get support. They made the Final 12, and both make Houston look like a vocational school academically. Also, Rice and SMU have big endowments, which means lots of big time donors that will go to bat for them. There is no reason for either to stand down and let Houston go to the Big 12. I bet SMU can turn TCU into an advocate, which was likely the point of putting SMU and Rice on the list.

You make a good argument and may very well be right on it. To me the deciding factor is that the notion of SMU and Rice in the Big 12 is so patently ridiculous and everyone knows it that there isn't enough of a foundation to stand on to make those phone calls to legislators and leverage that to keep out all three.

 

[don356]

So much for the Fed Ex money. The shareholders and SEC can relax. That's Securies and Exchange Commission.

 

[WestHartHusk]

So the list is:

BYU UCF Cincinnati UConn CSU UH Rice USF SMU Tulane

Winners:

Colorado State - time to start taking CSU seriously as an expansion candidate. It is a big school in a decent sized and rapidly growing market, and the athletic program is OK. I am also sure some Big 12 schools wouldn't mind sticking it to Colorado, who left the Big 12 with some burned bridges.

No change:

UConn, Cincinnati, BYU were always the front runners, and nothing has changed.

Losers:

Houston is a big loser with that list. Houston does not want to be on an expansion list with Rice and SMU on it, because now it is easier for the Big 12 to say no to all 3. UT, TCU, Baylor and Texas Tech can now plausibly split their support between the three schools, making none of them viable.

Memphis - I never thought Memphis was a realistic candidate for expansion, but not even making the first cut is embarrassing, and makes any further arguments about Memphis joining a P5 completely unrealistic. I am not rejoicing at all, because I think Memphis is an OK athletic program and I hate the system.

Boise - This program has accomplished so much, and no one cares.

Other:

Air Force - Politically, a military academy has to make the first cut in this process. They are not getting invited to join the Big 12.

Tulane - meh

USF/UCF - How can the Big 12 differentiate these two schools from each other? The Big 12 is not adding both, but I feel like neither is worth that much without the other.

Other Thoughts:

Random conspiracy theory - I will continue to assume that the Big 12 GOR is inviolate, but if Texas and some other Big 12 schools were looking for an invitation to another P5 league right now, shaking down the Pac 12 by threatening to add CSU and BYU would be a good way to do it. The Pac 12 Network is not doing well, and splitting two mid-sized states with the Big 12 won't help it.

Twitter Trolls - I don't have time to do it, but someone should find out which of the online "insiders" were pimping Memphis as an addition to the Big 12. That was transparent trolling of one of the largest online fanbases (Memphis) of any of the candidates, despite Memphis having no realistic chance of getting added. My memory is that the following Twitteratti were pimping Memphis: M H V E R, Dude, and MSMoose. Could someone confirm?

In a way, pimping Memphis was also trolling of UConn, since we were the ones most often knocked out for Memphis in the "insider updates" from those idiots.

Finally, it is worth noting that UConn was one of the Big East schools supportive of a soft landing for Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Baylor and Texas Tech when the Big 12 looked like it might come apart in 2011, and supported adding TCU to the Big East, thereby making TCU a viable candidate for the Big 12. I am surprised that hasn't come up once in all this expansion talk.

This is a damn good point. Also, we voted with the football schools way back in the day to get WVU in.

 

[Chin Diesel]

One thing about Tulane. Superdome and Baby dome provide instant B12 caliber facilities.

 

[zls44]

One thing about Tulane. Superdome and Baby dome provide instant B12 caliber facilities.

They just built a stadium. To leave the dome. If they had to go back...look, this isn't gonna be a real thing, but its a very interesting liar's poker scenario.

 

[shizzle787]

I think a few more surprises are looming. I wouldn't be shocked if BYU isn't one of the last four or five standing and one of SMU or Rice is. BYU's baggage may be too much to deal with.

 

[BKarchitect]

Nelson - I think you are pretty spot-on with your assessment. Especially Colorado State. They are a serious contender, although I still think their participation rides a lot on BYU joing as well because it creates a contiguous bridge west. They are a state land grant school with large enrollment, an excellent R&D reputation and have a gorgeous new stadium underway. Denver is loaded with Big 12 alumni - led by my Jayhawks. It is a natural trip for old Big 12 fans.

Still think Fox is going to push things entirely East but my preference has always been UConn and Cincinnati for 12 or if 14, add Colorado State and BYU. I think it's the best mix of resumes and universities and I think geographic issues are overblown. The Big 12 doesn't need to be a regional Texas-based conference, it needs to add the best universities it can, period, end of story.

 

[junglehusky]

I think a few more surprises are looming. I wouldn't be shocked if BYU isn't one of the last four or five standing and one of SMU or Rice is. BYU's baggage may be too much to deal with.

That's consistent with what I'm hearing. I won't tell you my source's name, but it rhymes with Loud Gun.

 

[auror]

Just my opinion, but I'm reading the opposite into this as all of you re:BYU.

There was a lot of social pressure and some protests regarding BYU's candidacy during these last few weeks. For the Big12 Pres to see that and not cut BYU, I have to think they're willing to select them in the end. Considering they're probably the best candidate overall (or one of the top 2-3 at least), if the social pressure was an issue or non-fixable (ie updated honor code), they would have just cut them now.

 

[shizzle787]

Just my opinion, but I'm reading the opposite into this as all of you re:BYU.

There was a lot of social pressure and some protests regarding BYU's candidacy during these last few weeks. For the Big12 Pres to see that and not cut BYU, I have to think they're willing to select them in the end. Considering they're probably the best candidate overall (or one of the top 2-3 at least), if the social pressure was an issue or non-fixable (ie updated honor code), they would have just cut them now.

I don't know. I would think they would be the last cut so as not seem like the baggage was the reason they were cut.

 

[Chin Diesel]

They just built a stadium. To leave the dome. If they had to go back...look, this isn't gonna be a real thing, but its a very interesting 's poker scenario.

I'm not suggesting Tulane is realistic.

But if Tulane were playing Texas, Oklahoma or OSU they get 50k in Superdome.

All I'm saying is they don't have to renovate the high school size stadium they just built or their HS sized bball arena.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Rice and Tulane make the Presidents of Academic universities feel much better about themselves. I believe those are the only two universities ranked higher by US News than UConn (Rice #18, Tulane #41, UConn #57, SMU #61, BYU #66, CSU #127, Cincy #140, AFA is in a separate category). If academics are a strong consideration, I this puts UConn in a strong light.

 

[Adios]

Methinks UT would prefer UConn and Cincinnati over BYU, CSU and Houston. They already attract students from Houston.

 

[shizzle787]

Methinks UT would prefer UConn and Cincinnati over BYU, CSU and Houston. They already attract students from Houston.

Me hopes.

 

[amory]

Everyone keeps talking about Tulane like it'd be anything other than a monumental joke to invite them to a power conference.

Tulane sucks. At everything. To the point where if they left the American, the conference would actually be stronger. Hooray for New Orleans and their academics, but their athletic department sucks something awful

Should they get an invite, it'd be because the Big 12 overthought all of this and made the "interesting" play instead of the rational one.

Rice, SMU, and Air Force are out too.

So that leaves UConn, BYU, Houston, Cincy, USF/UCF, CSU. AKA all the schools we thought were serious contenders from the beginning

 

[BKarchitect]

CSU is laying the biggest turd you can imagine versus their in-state rivals. Now, I've always been on the "don't overreact to one season...let alone one quarter of one game" in this process group - I certainly was last night with the close calls for UConn and UC. But - the level of ineptness CSU is showing on the biggest stae (opening game of the year, in Denver @ Invesco, versus your hated rivals with the Big 12 expansion process as a backdrop) - I mean, it's so bad that this one moment might frame why you don't take CSU right now in a very clear manner.