Mitch Vingle (WV Gazette): A re-set of the Big 12 expansion situation

[huskymedic]

GoCSURams 11:30am via Twitter for iPhone
@flugempire Sorry, I just don't get UCONN to BIG12. Easter time zone, travel, bad football...how do they fit BIG12 profile, culture, brand?

Didn't realize that Colorado State was such a football power...

@GoCSURams has typical short term memory. CSU Football record since UConn officially went D1 in 2002:

2002 ~ 10-4
2003 ~ 7-6
2004 ~ 4-7
2005 ~ 6-6
2006 ~ 4-8
2007 ~ 3-9
2008 ~ 7-6
2009 ~ 3-9
2010 ~ 3-9
2011 ~ 3-9
2012 ~ 4-8
2013 ~ 8-6
2014 ~ 10-3
2015 ~ 7-6
Total: 79 - 92

UConn went 86-86 over same 14 year period.

 

[Millpoint]

As a WVU fan I hope that if the Big 12 expands that UConn is in. I don't care who #12 would be. Indifferent on the Bearcats. Could care less about Memphis. No matter what happens it will be up to Texas.

 

[BoatShow]

@GoCSURams has typical short term memory. CSU Football record since UConn officially went D1 in 2002:

2002 ~ 10-4
2003 ~ 7-6
2004 ~ 4-7
2005 ~ 6-6
2006 ~ 4-8
2007 ~ 3-9
2008 ~ 7-6
2009 ~ 3-9
2010 ~ 3-9
2011 ~ 3-9
2012 ~ 4-8
2013 ~ 8-6
2014 ~ 10-3
2015 ~ 7-6
Total: 79 - 92

UConn went 86-86 over same 14 year period.

Our FBS record is still .500 after PP and Diaco's first year. Hello people? !?

 

[Ldandy]

@GoCSURams has typical short term memory. CSU Football record since UConn officially went D1 in 2002:

2002 ~ 10-4
2003 ~ 7-6
2004 ~ 4-7
2005 ~ 6-6
2006 ~ 4-8
2007 ~ 3-9
2008 ~ 7-6
2009 ~ 3-9
2010 ~ 3-9
2011 ~ 3-9
2012 ~ 4-8
2013 ~ 8-6
2014 ~ 10-3
2015 ~ 7-6
Total: 79 - 92

UConn went 86-86 over same 14 year period.

Against much better competition over that period of time to boot.

 

[Santini35]

Yup...

GoCSURams 11:30am via Twitter for iPhone
@flugempire Sorry, I just don't get UCONN to BIG12. Easter time zone, travel, bad football...how do they fit BIG12 profile, culture, brand?

It's funny how many times we hear that UConn is "that school out in cow country" from urban east coast school's fans, but to fans out west...

"Gary Clark‏@GoCSURams
@breid6791 @flugempire Mixing button down preppies with farmers and Cowboys seems like smart guys talking themselves into a bad merger."

 

[noeynox]

It's funny how many times we hear that UConn is "that school out in cow country" from urban east coast school's fans, but to fans out west...

"Gary Clark‏@GoCSURams
@breid6791 @flugempire Mixing button down preppies with farmers and Cowboys seems like smart guys talking themselves into a bad merger."

These types of tweets smell of fear. Fear that we may picked ahead of their school. Starting to see some of this from Cincinnati fans on twitter too.

 

[billybud]

@GoCSURams has typical short term memory. CSU Football record since UConn officially went D1 in 2002:

2002 ~ 10-4
2003 ~ 7-6
2004 ~ 4-7
2005 ~ 6-6
2006 ~ 4-8
2007 ~ 3-9
2008 ~ 7-6
2009 ~ 3-9
2010 ~ 3-9
2011 ~ 3-9
2012 ~ 4-8
2013 ~ 8-6
2014 ~ 10-3
2015 ~ 7-6
Total: 79 - 92

UConn went 86-86 over same 14 year period.

From 2000-2015, UConn's record is 91-103 (.469)...

Colorado State went 96-103 (.482)

pretty much even steven

 

[CTMike]

*** channels my inner @Fishy ***

Any time you can take the 2nd best school in Colorado, you gotta do it.

 

[dwalks93]

Sure CSU's and UConn's football records are basically even since 2000... except for the fact UConn just had moved up to D1 and basically built its football program from scratch.

Ignorant fans may try to throw the "UConn football sucks" trump card for conference realignment but other than the PP era UConn football has been competitive.

If you are a P5 conference there needs to be some speculation when adding a program. The question should be not only what the program is doing now but which schools have the capacity to improve. That is where the real increase for a conference comes. Programs continue to rise and fall but consistent investment and territory are solid predictors of sustaining power.

UConn may never win a football NC but they have shown the willingness and investment to improve football. Based on some of the tweets lately (particularly the OU Board of Regents and the columnist out of WV) several schools are starting to worry about giving UConn the increased financial means to build a football program. That is just stupid....either you want a strong money producing conference or you want to limit competition. If a school elects the second route then welcome to BC.

 

[uconnell]

I wish someone would post the UConn video on some of the big XII boards.

 

[Chin Diesel]

The Big 12 conference point of view of America.

 

[pj]

From 2000-2015, UConn's record is 91-103 (.469)...

Colorado State went 96-103 (.482)

pretty much even steven

Of course, UConn's strength of schedule in the Big East was considerably stronger than Colorado State's. And those year's encompassed UConn's upgrade from FCS to FBS. Teams normally struggle at first to get wins as their schedule strength increases.

 

[whaler11]

*** channels my inner @Fishy ***

Any time you can take the 2nd best school in Colorado, you gotta do it.

Did the Air Force leave? Doesn't that make them third?

 

[Nostical]

What do we need to do to get into a better conference? Improve our football image nationally among fans.

This needs to be our year to create some buzz in football circles. Once we start winning, full page articles in USA Today (like Houston received today) and other media vehicles will go a long way in creating a more positive perception.

 

[sportsart]

From 2000-2015, UConn's record is 91-103 (.469)...

Colorado State went 96-103 (.482)

pretty much even steven

Please stop counting years that are not included in the official records of UConn's D1 existance. Yeesh.

 

[billybud]

Please stop counting years that are not included in the official records of UConn's D1 existance. Yeesh.

Huh? The Courant says that UConn began play as a "1A" in 2000 in transitional status.

So...what ya got? A period of neither fish nor fowl...and how was that called?


"UConn will begin play as a Division I-A independent in the 2000 season with a schedule that may include as many as seven I-A opponents -- thanks to an NCAA ruling that waives the stadium and attendance requirements for membership in the top division."

And played 4 MAC teams, a IA independent, a CUSA team, and a Big East team.

 

[billybud]

STORRS, Conn., Aug. 27— A victory over the Rutgers football team, the doormat of the Big East, may not seem like a reason to exult, but for Connecticut and its followers, its 20-19 victory last Sept. 29 in New Jersey was. It was the Huskies' first victory over a team from a major conference since they moved from Division I-AA to college football's top level, Division I-A, in 2000.

Soooo...Ya know what I think?

Yep..."Yeesh!"

 

[UConnNick]

We didn't have

Huh? The Courant says that UConn began play as a "1A" in 2000 in transitional status.

So...what ya got? A period of neither fish nor fowl...and how was that called?


"UConn will begin play as a Division I-A independent in the 2000 season with a schedule that may include as many as seven I-A opponents -- thanks to an NCAA ruling that waives the stadium and attendance requirements for membership in the top division."

And played 4 MAC teams, a IA independent, a CUSA team, and a Big East team.

We didn't have the full complement of 85 scholarships at the NCAA IA level until the 2002 season, so for prior seasons we were transitional and not competing on an even level with established DI programs. We played in 2002 and 2003 with some leftover recruits from the IAA era, although we went 6-6 in 2002, with a win at Navy and a 17 point win over Iowa State on the road, and went 9-3 as an independent in 2003.

Any seasons prior to 2002 should be considered regular or somewhat glorified IAA seasons.

 

[billybud]

Thanks...a coherent explanation...

I do think most have the Huskies as a IA Independent (in a transitional status) in 2000....but I do understand why you might object to that status being considered full fledge IA.

 

[BlueHen]

STORRS, Conn., Aug. 27— A victory over the Rutgers football team, the doormat of the Big East, may not seem like a reason to exult, but for Connecticut and its followers, its 20-19 victory last Sept. 29 in New Jersey was. It was the Huskies' first victory over a team from a major conference since they moved from Division I-AA to college football's top level, Division I-A, in 2000.

Soooo...Ya know what I think?

Yep..."Yeesh!"

Why are you here? Isn't there an FSU board for you to post on?

Yeesh!

 

[kyleslamb]

Expansion with no network does bring them 10-15% better chance of getting a team into the College Football Playoff. I'm not sure how much that is worth a dollar level, but it would likely be a considering factor. Their TV deal is structured so that they can add two teams with the same payout, and adding the Conference Championship game will bring additional TV and sponsorship monies. The only thing that gets diluted would be the bowl payout money -- not sure if a boost of 10-15% in playoff appearances will offset that though, but someone is doing the math.

No one they could collectively add right now would give a 10-15% boost in probability of a playoff appearance.

Right now, the Big 12 has 10 of 66 power conference spots (we'll just assume the playoff spots will come from the power conferences). That's a 15.2% chance of getting any one playoff spot, although there are actually four. There is, then, an 84.8% chance that they don't get each of the four playoff spots (ignoring qualitative strength for now). Since there are four spots, that's equal to 1 minus (.848 * .848 * .848 * .848) or 1 minus .517. That means there's a 48.3% chance of the Big 12 getting a playoff spot currently, if we assume all four are coming from the power conferences and we don't adjust for actual strength of teams.

Add two more teams, we increase the pool to 12 of 68 spots. That becomes 17.6% and 82.4% chance of not getting one. That's 82.4% raised to the fourth power, which equals 1-46.1% or 53.9% chance.

So by adding two schools, roughly they've only increased their chances by 4.5%.

Honestly, that assumes any school they would add gives them an average chance of getting a playoff appearance. The only school right now from the non-power conferences they could add that seems to give a better than average shot is Houston, and who knows if that will continue. Tom Herman has the program in a great spot, but we'll see if they continue at that level very long.

I think they have to expand right now if only because they need the appearance of togetherness, ambition and strength. However, if we assume the ACC is off-limits right now, I don't know there is much out there that can solve their problem(s).

 

[billybud]

You have an objection to UConn history being illustrated? Because someone isn't an alumnus or fan?

Of course you do. Object to the content of my post if you will....objecting to me personally is just tribalism...outsiders are an irritant.

I do understand tribalism....and xenophobia

 

[UConn Dan]

No one they could collectively add right now would give a 10-15% boost in probability of a playoff appearance.

Right now, the Big 12 has 10 of 66 power conference spots (we'll just assume the playoff spots will come from the power conferences). That's a 15.2% chance of getting any one playoff spot, although there are actually four. There is, then, an 84.8% chance that they don't get each of the four playoff spots (ignoring qualitative strength for now). Since there are four spots, that's equal to 1 minus (.848 * .848 * .848 * .848) or 1 minus .517. That means there's a 48.3% chance of the Big 12 getting a playoff spot currently, if we assume all four are coming from the power conferences and we don't adjust for actual strength of teams.

Add two more teams, we increase the pool to 12 of 68 spots. That becomes 17.6% and 82.4% chance of not getting one. That's 82.4% raised to the fourth power, which equals 1-46.1% or 53.9% chance.

So by adding two schools, roughly they've only increased their chances by 4.5%.

Honestly, that assumes any school they would add gives them an average chance of getting a playoff appearance. The only school right now from the non-power conferences they could add that seems to give a better than average shot is Houston, and who knows if that will continue. Tom Herman has the program in a great spot, but we'll see if they continue at that level very long.

I think they have to expand right now if only because they need the appearance of togetherness, ambition and strength. However, if we assume the ACC is off-limits right now, I don't know there is much out there that can solve their problem(s).

The 10-15% increase in playoff appearances was quoted from Navigate research based on a 12 team conference, playing 8 league games and conference championship game after they ran 40,000 simulations. If the big 12 merely added the CCG they would boost their chances by 5%.

The key is not how many teams out of the 5 power conference teams they possess but the 13th "data point" and more out of conference match ups. That's what the models have shown.

 

[kyleslamb]

The 10-15% increase in playoff appearances was quoted from Navigate research based on a 12 team conference, playing 8 league games and conference championship game after they ran 40,000 simulations. If the big 12 merely added the CCG they would boost their chances by 5%.

The key is not how many teams out of the 5 power conference teams they possess but the 13th "data point" and more out of conference match ups. That's what the models have shown.

Fair enough but by your explanation, that means adding two more teams is worth about 5-10 percent. I came up with 4.5 percent, so adding teams does indeed matter. What you're saying then is that adding a championship game on top of adding teams increases another 5 percent. That probably sounds about right.

 

[Sleepy]

Thanks...a coherent explanation...

I do think most have the Huskies as a IA Independent (in a transitional status) in 2000....but I do understand why you might object to that status being considered full fledge IA.

I vaguely recall checking the NCAA.com site way back when, and double-checking now for the 2000 and 2001 seasons, Connecticut isn't even listed in the team stats listings as Reclassifying/Provisional (although that may be a newer section that wasn't used back then). In 2002 Connecticut is grouped with everyone else. That seems to indicate that the NCAA feels that 2002 was the first 1A season.