Mandel Mailbag- What Will College Football Realignment Look Like In 10 Years?

[Drew]

Tons of different realignment questions in this mailbag worth reading:

http://www.foxsports.com/college-fo...-discipline-texas-a-m-qbs-kevin-sumlin-051116

"So Big 12 expansion — which I currently place at 53 percent likelihood, by the way —€” is definitely more imminent. And in fact, some within the conference who are in favor of it are themselves concerned about 2025. Who knows what the college landscape will look like by then, but it's fair to assume that a 10-team conference with two irreplaceable programs might be ripe for further pillaging. There's not likely to be much movement in the short term, but the Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC all have deals that end in 2024 or '25, and it's been reported that the Big Ten will be timing its forthcoming six-year deal with FOX to wrap in 2023.

However chaotic you thought conference realignment was from 2010-12, it will be child's play compared the Armageddon looming in about six years."

 

[upstater]

Tons of different realignment questions in this mailbag worth reading:

Stewart Mandel's Mailbag: Investigating realignment, Ole Miss discipline, Texas A&M QB drama

"So Big 12 expansion — which I currently place at 53 percent likelihood, by the way —€” is definitely more imminent. And in fact, some within the conference who are in favor of it are themselves concerned about 2025. Who knows what the college landscape will look like by then, but it's fair to assume that a 10-team conference with two irreplaceable programs might be ripe for further pillaging. There's not likely to be much movement in the short term, but the Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC all have deals that end in 2024 or '25, and it's been reported that the Big Ten will be timing its forthcoming six-year deal with FOX to wrap in 2023.

However chaotic you thought conference realignment was from 2010-12, it will be child's play compared the Armageddon looming in about six years."

The B12 will expand and survive.

In 6 years, the B1G is going to grab Virginia and North Carolina.

This is going to make Florida State and Clemson flee to the B12, which will solidify the conference.

At that point, the SEC will need to figure out what it wants out of the ACC. Virginia Tech? NC State? I think so.

Duke will then follow to the B1G.

This is what it will look like when all is said and done:

B1G (18): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Rutgers, Penn State, Purdue, Indiana, Notre Dame in one division. Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska in the other division.

SEC (16): Current schools + NC State and Virginia Tech.

B12 (16): Current schools + UConn, Cincinnati, Florida State, Clemson, Miami & Georgia Tech (not sure about this one, B1G may want them).

ACC (12): Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Wake Forest, Navy, Tulane, SMU, East Carolina, UCF, USF, Memphis.

Pac12 (16): Current + UNLV, Houston, Colorado State and BYU.

 

[sportsart]

The B12 will expand and survive.

In 6 years, the B1G is going to grab Virginia and North Carolina.

This is going to make Florida State and Clemson flee to the B12, which will solidify the conference.

At that point, the SEC will need to figure out what it wants out of the ACC. Virginia Tech? NC State? I think so.

Duke will then follow to the B1G.

This is what it will look like when all is said and done:

B1G (18): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Rutgers, Penn State, Purdue, Indiana, Notre Dame in one division. Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska in the other division.

SEC (16): Current schools + NC State and Virginia Tech.

B12 (16): Current schools + UConn, Cincinnati, Florida State, Clemson, Miami & Georgia Tech (not sure about this one, B1G may want them).

ACC (12): Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Wake Forest, Navy, Tulane, SMU, East Carolina, UCF, USF, Memphis.

Pac12 (16): Current + UNLV, Houston, Colorado State and BYU.

That ACC scenario sure makes me smile. Of course, I have it on good authority, we are ACC bound so that makes me sad.

 

[huskymedic]

Here is the original article from Mandel this morning:

Here's what college football will look like in 2026

Thought this exchange w/ Brian Murphy (former Boise writer) was funny.

slmandel12:15pm via TweetDeck
@murphsturph I started out with the intention of doing 32 or 36, but it was actually easier to narrow to 24.

murphsturph12:17pm via TweetDeck
@slmandel makes for bigger revenue with fewer teams, but all pro leagues are right around 30 (and I don't think that's an accident).

slmandel12:21pm via TweetDeck
@murphsturph I could have gone either way. That one would have included the likes of Syracuse & Rutgers for pure TV plays.

 

[upstater]

Here is the original article from Mandel this morning:

Here's what college football will look like in 2026

Thought this exchange w/ Brian Murphy (former Boise writer) was funny.
slmandel12:15pm via TweetDeck
@murphsturph I started out with the intention of doing 32 or 36, but it was actually easier to narrow to 24.

murphsturph12:17pm via TweetDeck
@slmandel makes for bigger revenue with fewer teams, but all pro leagues are right around 30 (and I don't think that's an accident).

slmandel12:21pm via TweetDeck
@murphsturph I could have gone either way. That one would have included the likes of Syracuse & Rutgers for pure TV plays.

The Syracuse market is lucrative, you have to admit.

 

[HuskyBandDad]

That ACC scenario sure makes me smile. Of course, I have it on good authority, we are ACC bound so that makes me sad.

Is your good authority whaler or a car wash owner or Range Rover guy?

 

[Drew]

 

[Drew]

Here is the original article from Mandel this morning:

Here's what college football will look like in 2026

Not going to lie I would easily pay $250 to watch a regular season of those matchups

 

[UCFBfan]

Not going to lie I would easily pay $250 to watch a regular season of those matchups

You couldn't pay me, well maybe there is an amount you could, that would make me buy that. Unless you are a fan of any of those listed schools, you probably aren't ponying up the cash. No one wants to pay $250 to watch minor league football.

 

[upstater]

Not going to lie I would easily pay $250 to watch a regular season of those matchups

I would pay $2.50. Maybe.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Not going to lie I would easily pay $250 to watch a regular season of those matchups

If UCONN is not playing, I won't pay a penny. Sorry, I would probably stop watching college football regularly if UCONN is not involved. I am pretty sure many other alums feel the same way.

 

[kyleslamb]

At this point, I really can't see teams breaking off. The FBS schools, specifically the power conference schools, already got their control of the money and now they got their autonomy. There's no reason to break off. They make their own television deals and have for several decades; they control the postseason tournament and how the money is distributed; they self-govern their own recruiting now, more or less. I don't see them breaking off.

HOWEVER...

If they did, it won't be specific schools leaving their leagues like Mandel indicates. Rather, it will be the power conferences leaving together as a whole, probably after the weakest of the five conferences (Big 12 or ACC) are devoured.

We certainly can't be certain about much of anything in a time of uncertainty, but I can pretty much guarantee there's no way Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, Florida, USC, etc. and some of these other schools that have been in close competitive relationships with these other like-minded institutions for 100 years are going to bolt for a best of the best type of association. That's simply not going to happen. If it were done as some sort of larger setup involving a promotion/relegation model, I could see it being viable, but as Mandel promoted it... N'gonna happen.

 

[nycscooby]

The B12 will expand and survive.

In 6 years, the B1G is going to grab Virginia and North Carolina.

This is going to make Florida State and Clemson flee to the B12, which will solidify the conference.

At that point, the SEC will need to figure out what it wants out of the ACC. Virginia Tech? NC State? I think so.

Duke will then follow to the B1G.

This is what it will look like when all is said and done:

B1G (18): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Rutgers, Penn State, Purdue, Indiana, Notre Dame in one division. Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska in the other division.

SEC (16): Current schools + NC State and Virginia Tech.

B12 (16): Current schools + UConn, Cincinnati, Florida State, Clemson, Miami & Georgia Tech (not sure about this one, B1G may want them).

ACC (12): Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Wake Forest, Navy, Tulane, SMU, East Carolina, UCF, USF, Memphis.

Pac12 (16): Current + UNLV, Houston, Colorado State and BYU.

The only thimg we know for sure is that no one has any clue about what future CR brings.

 

[billybud]

can't wait until 2027

Old Man GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

 

[RioDog]

If UCONN is not playing, I won't pay a penny. Sorry, I would probably stop watching college football regularly if UCONN is not involved. I am pretty sure many other alums feel the same way.

Indeed. One of the things that makes college athletics unique is that it provides the possibility of a true Cinderella to rise up and smack down a perennial power. Without that its just the NFL with with college logos. Boring.