Let's Talk Iowa State...

[tzznandrew]

Obviously (as you should be ) I took a quick look on ESPN regarding season stats to see where both teams ranked (injuries aside) and was honestly surprised at what I found:

Points Per Game: ISU 6th - UConn 144th
Rebounds Per Game: ISU 23rd - UConn 146th
Assists Per Game: ISU 1st - UConn 179th
FG Percentage: ISU 40th - UConn 142nd

If you removed the team name from those statistics and had to guess who would win if/when they played, I think the choice would be blatantly obvious. But, like I previously posted, I think you can throw the stats out the window on this one. Going to be good!

...

These stats are useless. You play at a faster pace, and therefore necessarily average more points, rebounds, and assists per game. There are more possessions for you to do so.

UConn intentionally slows the game down a bit more. It looks to run, but only strategically.

In a 100 possession game, UConn would be expected to score 111.1 points, good for 57th (keep in mind we had some injuries to Daniels, and a nagging one to Napier).
Iowa State would be expected to score 117.8 points, which is good for 10th. Without Niang, I'd expect this to go down.

But, conversely, UConn only be expected to allow 93.2 points in a 100 possession game, good for 10th.
Iowa State would be expected to give up 98.9, good for 58th. From what I'm hearing, without Niang, I'd expect this to go up (meaning your defense is improved).

So, the teams are near exact opposites (57-10; 10-58). KenPom puts them at 19 (UConn) and 20 (Iowa State).

I would expect the FG% to be what it is, as Iowa State likes to get into transition.

I don't pay for KenPom, so I can't tell you about rebound rate and assist rate. I'd wager Iowa State does both better, though, even when pace adjusted.

 

[BlueMAB]

I would be ecstatic if Nolan and Brimah combine for 16. If that is s the case we won't double. I worry about one of them going off for 16. Is Daniels a physical player down low or more finesse? l

I honestly don't think that works out well for you. If you don't double, fine, if those two combine for 16 we are playing the game at our pace, not yours. If that's the case, I think we win.

 

[tzznandrew]

I honestly don't think that works out well for you. If you don't double, fine, if those two combine for 16 we are playing the game at our pace, not yours. If that's the case, I think we win.

I agree here. If those 2 get 16 combined, I'm feeling very good. Unless we're forcing it at them and they have a bunch of TOs.

 

[Leebo]

None of the UConn big guys are physical. DD would count as finesse. Nolan and Brimah are just "whatever they can get".

 

[Tenspro2002]

It's going to be interesting to see how well each coach exploits the other and adjusts in game.

Can Brimah defend the three if Edozie isn't in? Will Brimah force ISU to play Edozie more, will ISUs outside-in strategy force Brimah to the bench and a smaller lineup for UConn? Will it force a zone?

And that's just the five.

Doubtful. Probably not. Probably. Definitely not.

 

[CyclONEnation]

...

These stats are useless. You play at a faster pace, and therefore necessarily average more points, rebounds, and assists per game. There are more possessions for you to do so.

UConn intentionally slows the game down a bit more. It looks to run, but only strategically.

And can you believe no team has attempted to slow the game down against Iowa State all season.

 

[tzznandrew]

And can you believe no team has attempted to slow the game down against Iowa State all season.

Well, of course they have.

Do you think teams haven't sped the game up on UConn?

When the game speeds up, UConn theoretically should score at the same clip per 100 possessions.

So if they had the same number of possessions as Iowa State, you'd see those scoring numbers to look a lot closer.

And, do you know how teams tend to have the same number of possessions? When they play each other.

 

[Awesome Sauce]

None of the UConn big guys are physical. DD would count as finesse. Nolan and Brimah are just "whatever they can get".

Can they be aggressive? Long, physical swings who drive and fight for rebounds is the Achilles heel of ISU. If they're just mopping up left overs, 16 points over two guys is a win for ISU, who can average every starter in double digits even without Niang.

 

[Tenspro2002]

I simply believe this to be wrong. You seem to hover on Kane and Niang but Ejim was the Big 12 of the year and I see no one discussing him. This game will be a great game and either team can win. If both bring their A game it will go down to whoever has the ball last. ISU has five guys that can all go off for 20+. Long, Kane and Morris are all above average defenders. Ejim and Hogue are undersized but I don't see anyone for UConn that really takes advantage of that which helps keep Ejim and Hogue out of foul trouble.
This will be a battle

I think we're more concerned about Kane because he's a worse matchup. We have a lot of 6'6-6'8 guys at the 3/4 who can match up with Ejim. Sure, we can't exploit a size advantage in our favor (maybe you're used to that happening against you), but you also can't exploit a quickness/shooting advantage at the 4 that you're used to doing.

Kane at a muscular 6'4, with quickess, is a nightmare matchup for a team with a woefully undersized backcourt in Boatright ad Napier.

 

[Leebo]

Can they be aggressive? Long, physical swings who drive and fight for rebounds is the Achilles heel of ISU. If they're just mopping up left overs, 16 points over two guys is a win for ISU, who can average every starter in double digits even without Niang.

Nolan and Brimah are not going to be aggressive. They tend to look out of control when they are.

DD has been known to make some impressive moves to the basket for big dunks, or floaters if he gets stopped.

 

[Onions]

Are we better with Niang? Sure but the real question is how much better. Do we drop to 11th in offense or 20th? I think you feel our offense will drop way down and I think it will not drop that far.
...
It seems as though you think with Niang out, his 16.7, 4.5 and 3.6 disappear. That simply isn't true. Neither does the opposing team big having to guard on the perimeter. Hogue shoots a higher 3pt% than Niang.
...
Another thing thing is UConn simply has no idea what ISU will do without Niang and four days of practice.

I don't think Niang's points disappear, but I don't think other players will completely fill his stat sheet either. Your taking about 33 minutes and 5 fouls out of your game plan. Who get's those minutes and what will they do with them - the more minutes you give to your starters the more foul trouble they can be in, and regional finals are not the place to try out unproven backups. If Niang is that easily replaceable then he wasn't very good to begin with, and we both know that's not true.

As for Hoiberg and 4 days of practice - well that's always the case. I'd rather face him with 4 days of practice and no Niang, then after 4 days of practice with a full team. At this point all the coaches are pretty good, Izzo, Pitino -- I'd prefer to play against Stan Heath but unfortunately he's not here. Yours is the more experienced coach, but I think it's pretty much a toss up between them, which is why I figure it will come down to talent on the floor.

 

[tazclone]

I honestly don't think that works out well for you. If you don't double, fine, if those two combine for 16 we are playing the game at our pace, not yours. If that's the case, I think we win.

Disagree. If the game is slowed down and those guys only get 16 and we aren't doubling....then they are missing shots and are not kicking out for threes. Missed shots equal transition buckets. Hell, if they shoot 100% that is 8 touches in the paint. 8 out of 66-76. That keeps Hogue out of foul trouble and allows him to be more aggressive on the boards and in help defense

As an ISU fan, two bigs scoring 16 points is heaven. Unless of course, UConn is draining threes and don't need to go down low.

 

[tzznandrew]

Disagree. If the game is slowed down and those guys only get 16 and we aren't doubling....then they are missing shots and are not kicking out for threes. Missed shots equal transition buckets. Hell, if they shoot 100% that is 8 touches in the paint. 8 out of 66-76. That keeps Hogue out of foul trouble and allows him to be more aggressive on the boards and in help defense

As an ISU fan, two bigs scoring 16 points is heaven. Unless of course, UConn is draining threes and don't need to go down low.

Keep in mind, they'll never be on the court at the same time, and they average a combined 8 points a game.

Daniels will be there, too. And if Daniels is included, and it's only 16, or 20 combined, then you are in good shape. He's averaging 12.6 and 5.7, but over the past month, once he's gotten healthy, he's been much better: 15 and 6.8. When he's playing well, UConn is a Top 10 team (he had 14 and 7 against Florida, for instance).

 

[Awesome Sauce]

I think we're more concerned about Kane because he's a worse matchup. We have a lot of 6'6-6'8 guys at the 3/4 who can match up with Ejim. Sure, we can't exploit a size advantage in our favor (maybe you're used to that happening against you), but you also can't exploit a quickness/shooting advantage at the 4 that you're used to doing.

Kane at a muscular 6'4, with quickess, is a nightmare matchup for a team with a woefully undersized backcourt in Boatright ad Napier.

Yeah, this will probably come down to how the two lines battle it out.

I don't think Niang's points disappear, but I don't think other players will completely fill his stat sheet either. Your taking about 33 minutes and 5 fouls out of your game plan. Who get's those minutes and what will they do with them - the more minutes you give to your starters the more foul trouble they can be in, and regional finals are not the place to try out unproven backups. If Niang is that easily replaceable then he wasn't very good to begin with, and we both know that's not true.

As for Hoiberg and 4 days of practice - well that's always the case. I'd rather face him with 4 days of practice and no Niang, then after 4 days of practice with a full team. At this point all the coaches are pretty good, Izzo, Pitino -- I'd prefer to play against Stan Heath but unfortunately he's not here. Yours is the more experienced coach, but I think it's pretty much a toss up between them, which is why I figure it will come down to talent on the floor.

Basically the minutes go to Long and Morris. They lose the height and paint, but they gain assists and threes. Those two scored 17 pts against Baylor on 50 minutes, with Niang getting 13 on 37. Against UNC, Morris/Long scored 25 on 58 minutes. Edozie/Thomas get the other 30 minutes. Edozie can play, but he's a mop. He's a much better defender than an offensive guy, if you need to stop drives. Thomas is a sharp shooter, who will get lots of minutes if he's hot. Kane/Ejim/Houge picked up the extra few rebounds and assists that Niang would have had.

Basically losing Niang just gives them one less outlet to run their offense, not that no one else can score. Generally he moves better than other 6-9s and plays an old man game of hooks and layups, so they have him bring up the ball into the paint. He is not a monster on the boards though, he's primarily a scorer or he kicks out on a double team. Houge and Ejim are the board cleaners, averaging 8.5 rpg, each.

 

[tazclone]

I don't think Niang's points disappear, but I don't think other players will completely fill his stat sheet either. Your taking about 33 minutes and 5 fouls out of your game plan. Who get's those minutes and what will they do with them - the more minutes you give to your starters the more foul trouble they can be in, and regional finals are not the place to try out unproven backups. If Niang is that easily replaceable then he wasn't very good to begin with, and we both know that's not true.

As for Hoiberg and 4 days of practice - well that's always the case. I'd rather face him with 4 days of practice and no Niang, then after 4 days of practice with a full team. At this point all the coaches are pretty good, Izzo, Pitino -- I'd prefer to play against Stan Heath but unfortunately he's not here. Yours is the more experienced coach, but I think it's pretty much a toss up between them, which is why I figure it will come down to talent on the floor.

Who gets the minutes? Hogue, Long and Niang. with Edozie and Thomas getting a few. All have seen quality time. All, but Edozie, have been starters at one point or another and Edozie saw his time increase as the season went on.

I guess you missed where I pointed that out.

Niang isn't easy to replace which is why his lost production is spread out over 3-4 guys but I guess you can't see that difference.

Morris has not been asked to do a lot offensively this season but is capable. It has been a blessing to allow him to grow all season with no pressure. In the tourney he is 80% from three. When niang went out, he went for 13 or 7 more than his average. The kid leads the nation in assist to turnover ratio and broke the all time record. btw- 2 personal fouls compared to his season average of 1.7
Long increased his ppg last game by 5 and had 0 personal fouls. Below his season average of 1.8
Hogue increased his PPG by 4 points with Niang gone. He did foul out with about 0:10 left in the game and that is 2.3 more than his average.



You see how those guys' increase equal the numbers that Niang put up? That does not include Edozie or Thomas or Kane be more of the go to guy.
Now I have been told that UConn is a much better school than ISU educationally but that is pretty simple math.

Now... why play Niang instead of counting on those 3-5. Niang is more consistent. Niang is very unique and causes more mismatch issues against bigger teams. Niang is a calming force and a leader. If Niang has a bad night then one of those three can help out. It means we have more options. Now if any of those three has an off night then our options are much more limited and Kane and Ejim have to carry more of the load. Of course a coach would rather have 1 player deliver the the same as three players. It doesn't mean those players can't step up their game if called upon.

Now I have been told that UConn is a much better school than ISU but this is simple math and I am pretty sure I added rt. 7+5+4=16

 

[tazclone]

Keep in mind, they'll never be on the court at the same time, and they average a combined 8 points a game.

Daniels will be there, too. And if Daniels is included, and it's only 16, or 20 combined, then you are in good shape. He's averaging 12.6 and 5.7, but over the past month, once he's gotten healthy, he's been much better: 15 and 6.8. When he's playing well, UConn is a Top 10 team (he had 14 and 7 against Florida, for instance).

Macadoo and Meeks went for 14 and 15. That is what I worry about. Judging by what people have said on here, I like the Ejim/Daniels match upbecause Ejiim will be fine against a finesse player but not a physical player.

 

[tazclone]

Yeah, this will probably come down to how the two lines battle it out.


Basically the minutes go to Long and Morris. They lose the height and paint, but they gain assists and threes. Those two scored 17 pts against Baylor on 50 minutes, with Niang getting 13 on 37. Against UNC, Morris/Long scored 25 on 58 minutes. Edozie/Thomas get the other 30 minutes. Edozie can play, but he's a mop. He's a much better defender than an offensive guy, if you need to stop drives. Thomas is a sharp shooter, who will get lots of minutes if he's hot. Kane/Ejim/Houge picked up the extra few rebounds and assists that Niang would have had.

Basically losing Niang just gives them one less outlet to run their offense, not that no one else can score. Generally he moves better than other 6-9s and plays an old man game of hooks and layups, so they have him bring up the ball into the paint. He is not a monster on the boards though, he's primarily a scorer or he kicks out on a double team. Houge and Ejim are the board cleaners, averaging 8.5 rpg, each.

Hogue saw 6 more minutes than he normally gets as well.

 

[tazclone]

I think we're more concerned about Kane because he's a worse matchup. We have a lot of 6'6-6'8 guys at the 3/4 who can match up with Ejim. Sure, we can't exploit a size advantage in our favor (maybe you're used to that happening against you), but you also can't exploit a quickness/shooting advantage at the 4 that you're used to doing.

Kane at a muscular 6'4, with quickess, is a nightmare matchup for a team with a woefully undersized backcourt in Boatright ad Napier.

But we can at the 5 which is where we exploit that advantage the most. I see Daniels on Ejim and I like that matchup. If Daniels is out and you go with Kromah or Giffey then you have the smaller guards on Kane and I see Ejim mopping up the boards against them getting junk buckets. Ejim is an odd player as well. He doesn't wow you. He can shoot the 3, he can take his guy off the dribble but he does neither exceptionally well. Against a typical four he can do both at will. Against a 3/4 he becomes a rebounder and a put back type of guy.

 

[intlzncster]

But we can at the 5 which is where we exploit that advantage the most. I see Daniels on Ejim and I like that matchup. If Daniels is out and you go with Kromah or Giffey then you have the smaller guards on Kane and I see Ejim mopping up the boards against them getting junk buckets. Ejim is an odd player as well. He doesn't wow you. He can shoot the 3, he can take his guy off the dribble but he does neither exceptionally well. Against a typical four he can do both at will. Against a 3/4 he becomes a rebounder and a put back type of guy.

We'll sometimes show a lineup with a 5, Daniels, Giffey, Kromah, and Bazz. If we need to, it wouldn't be an issue. It will simply be about adjustments. Also, our guards may be small, but they rebound like crazy, and have against bigger competition all season long. So we'll see how that plays out.

Ejim will be able to drive on Daniels, but will have more trouble getting a clean shot off. If he beats Daniels, then he'll be funneled to Brimah, our best shot blocker. Backside help will then be key, as you relate your players can pass. If Ejim shoots, Daniels is a very long 6'9 and a strong shot blocker. He's pretty good at contesting shots. I'm

 

[HuskyBoi]

Team's gotta chip on their shoulder from that 2012 loss in the second round.

 

[Dogbreath2U]

Okay, I am officially convinced that we have no chance, that the game has been settled based on these devastating arguments, and that we are doomed. Not only that, we are
DOOMED AS DOOMED CAN BE.

 

[MileHighFish]

If you read some of the replies in the other threads regarding the game, one could get the exact opposite impression and that Iowa State has no chance Friday. It's the beauty of message boards and pure opinion!

 

[tazclone]

Okay, I am officially convinced that we have no chance, that the game has been settled based on these devastating arguments, and that we are doomed. Not only that, we are
DOOMED AS DOOMED CAN BE.

Don't know why you would think this. Shabazz can't be stopped, Boat is quicker than anyone we have Kromah will stop Kane and Brimah and Daniels will swat away anyone that gets by the guards. ISU won't be able to score more than 10 points.

 

[tazclone]

We'll sometimes show a lineup with a 5, Daniels, Giffey, Kromah, and Bazz. If we need to, it wouldn't be an issue. It will simply be about adjustments. Also, our guards may be small, but they rebound like crazy, and have against bigger competition all season long. So we'll see how that plays out.

Ejim will be able to drive on Daniels, but will have more trouble getting a clean shot off. If he beats Daniels, then he'll be funneled to Brimah, our best shot blocker. Backside help will then be key, as you relate your players can pass. If Ejim shoots, Daniels is a very long 6'9 and a strong shot blocker. He's pretty good at contesting shots. I'm

Or he will dump to Hogue.

Is Daniels capable of guarding the 3on the perimeter?

 

[Hume]

From the explanation and the "math" here by the Iowa State fans it appears that the loss of Niang will have no affect. Others will just fill his number. I think that's great so if Uconn should win there should be no complaints about "if they only had Niang."