Key to Florida

[tzznandrew]

Obviously, Florida is a better team than they were in December.

But I think UConn's improvement from that game to today is more pronounced.

Now, while we won the game in December, it was at home. So the question is: did we improve enough to win on a neutral court?

We won't be the best offensive team Florida will have played (although, healthy, we are better than we were a month ago); but we will be the best defensive team they have played. See here.

Also, Florida is prone to going on scoring droughts. Their offense is highly ranked by KenPom, but I think it's a bit overrated even by this metric. Wilbekin is the motor, and I think if you can keep him out of the lane, you can succeed. But even with him, they've gone on 6 scoring droughts longer than 4 minutes since the start of the SEC tournament. And none of those defenses were as good as ours. See here.

But, given all that. They are seniors, and they want it, and the dome will make our jump shooters suck, so we are DOOMED!

 

[NaughtybyNapier]

I think we'll see a lot of doubling/denying entry pass in the post, similar to how we played Payne. Young isn't great at creating shots for himself, but if he gets position on the block he normally finishes. A huge issue is that Young can be a monster on the O glass. We need to keep their guards out of the lane, because if we don't he could have a field day with 2nd chance opportunities

Looking at the numbers for both teams here http://statsheet.com/mcb/games/2014/04/05/2014-04-05_connecticut_vs_florida, it seems like we're very similar in a lot of ways. I'm not good with all the advanced stats, but it seems like we play at a similar pace...

On offense, Florida shoots slightly better on 2-pt FGs, wracks up more assists, and commits slightly fewer TOs.

We're slightly better from 3 as a team, and we're better at FTs (although they foul less than we do, and induce more foul shots than we do overall - so by volume they net out a little closer to us than sheer FT rate disparity would suggest).

Overall, they're a better a rebounding team because of their distinct advantage on the offensive glass (while we have a less distinct advantage on the defensive glass). They have four players that equal or exceed our team leaders in this category: Young (99 O Rebs), Finney-Smith (93), Prather (68), and Yguette (53) vs. Daniels (53) and Brimah (51). This fact could explain their 1.3% overall FG pct advantage -- easy putbacks. I'm sure the fact that they use their bigs to score a bit more than we do helps explain this, too.

We're a much better shot-blocking team, however, almost doubling them up: 5.8 vs. 3.1 BPG.

The "player impact" graphic at the bottom of the linked page is interesting if you don't know much about the Gators. In general, it shows a very well-balanced team. It screams: "smother Frazier!" It also surprised me how much Finney-Smith does overall. Hill has almost as many assists as Wilbekin on the year. Disrupting their rhythmn starting at point guard (like Boat did vs. MSU) will be critical.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

The UConn vs. Fla winner will most likely get Wisky who is a terrible match-up for Kentucky. Cauley Stein's absence will be noticeable this game and the Wisky brand will frustrate Kentucky.

That bodes well for the Fla/UConn winner to win the National Championship from a match-up perspective.

Fla def wins though by 10+ just like all the pundits are predicting ad nauseam. We have NO CHANCE. DOOMMED FOR SURE! (mojo of course ...)

 

[tzznandrew]

The UConn vs. Fla winner will most likely get Wisky who is a terrible match-up for Kentucky. Cauley Stein's absence will be noticeable this game and the Wisky brand will frustrate Kentucky.

That bodes well for the Fla/UConn winner to win the National Championship from a match-up perspective.

Fla def wins though by 10+ just like all the pundits are predicting ad nauseam. We have NO CHANCE. DOOMMED FOR SURE! (mojo of course ...)

We'll see. I didn't see the Michigan game, but one thing that struck me is that Kentucky is getting a favorable whistle. At first I thought it was just disrespect against WSU, but it seems refs are rewarding them for driving and seeking out contact (at least against WSU and Louisville). I don't think that's good basketball, but if any team that gets rewarded for that is going to be in a close game, and likely win.

I hope that's not really the case against Michigan.

 

[KhalidElAmida]

Looking at the numbers for both teams here http://statsheet.com/mcb/games/2014/04/05/2014-04-05_connecticut_vs_florida, it seems like we're very similar in a lot of ways. I'm not good with all the advanced stats, but it seems like we play at a similar pace...

On offense, Florida shoots slightly better on 2-pt FGs, wracks up more assists, and commits slightly fewer TOs.

We're slightly better from 3 as a team, and we're better at FTs (although they foul less than we do, and induce more foul shots than we do overall - so by volume they net out a little closer to us than sheer FT rate disparity would suggest).

Overall, they're a better a rebounding team because of their distinct advantage on the offensive glass (while we have a less distinct advantage on the defensive glass). They have four players that equal or exceed our team leaders in this category: Young (99 O Rebs), Finney-Smith (93), Prather (68), and Yguette (53) vs. Daniels (53) and Brimah (51). This fact could explain their 1.3% overall FG pct advantage -- easy putbacks. I'm sure the fact that they use their bigs to score a bit more than we do helps explain this, too.

We're a much better shot-blocking team, however, almost doubling them up: 5.8 vs. 3.1 BPG.

The "player impact" graphic at the bottom of the linked page is interesting if you don't know much about the Gators. In general, it shows a very well-balanced team. It screams: "smother Frazier!" It also surprised me how much Finney-Smith does overall. Hill has almost as many assists as Wilbekin on the year. Disrupting their rhythmn starting at point guard (like Boat did vs. MSU) will be critical.

Yeah like you said Florida can be dangerous on the O glass. A lot of the damage they do there comes directly from Wilbekin finding a crease, and the help D opening up the glass for their big (particularly Young). I've watched a good amount of them this year and Wilbekin really is the driving force for their offense. Keeping him out of the lane will go a long way in helping keep a body on their bigs and a hand up on their outside shooters. As far as Frazier goes, he can be lethal but is extremely streaky... And if he misses a few shots early on he tends to disappear. If he gets hot early though watch out... When he's feeling it he can be flat out unguardable , kind of like Bazz vs Nova. Like I said though, keeping Wilbekin from penetrating will make Frazier less of a threat

 

[Inyatkin]

We'll see. I didn't see the Michigan game, but one thing that struck me is that Kentucky is getting a favorable whistle. At first I thought it was just disrespect against WSU, but it seems refs are rewarding them for driving and seeking out contact (at least against WSU and Louisville). I don't think that's good basketball, but if any team that gets rewarded for that is going to be in a close game, and likely win.

I hope that's not really the case against Michigan.

I'm done expecting Kentucky to lose at this point. They keep pulling it out. I fully expect them to be playing Monday night

 

[Marat]

For anyone that wants to re-watch the December. UConn vs Florida game, here it is:

 

[jibsey]

Getting Young in foul trouble early would be nice....

 

[tzznandrew]

I'm done expecting Kentucky to lose at this point. They keep pulling it out. I fully expect them to be playing Monday night

Right. I think it's a combination of the kids figuring it out, and the refs giving them a kinder whistle than in the regular season...which doesn't have to be nefarious, we saw it happen with Kemba.

 

[NaughtybyNapier]

Yeah like you said Florida can be dangerous on the O glass. A lot of the damage they do there comes directly from Wilbekin finding a crease, and the help D opening up the glass for their big (particularly Young). I've watched a good amount of them this year and Wilbekin really is the driving force for their offense. Keeping him out of the lane will go a long way in helping keep a body on their bigs and a hand up on their outside shooters. As far as Frazier goes, he can be lethal but is extremely streaky... And if he misses a few shots early on he tends to disappear. If he gets hot early though watch out... When he's feeling it he can be flat out unguardable , kind of like Bazz vs Nova. Like I said though, keeping Wilbekin from penetrating will make Frazier less of a threat

Yeah, that makes sense. I'm guessing we'll put RB on Wilbekin and have him go testiculos to the wall, and stash SN on Frazier? As long as Shabazz doesn't drift off when he's on the weak side we should be in decent shape, and it'll save his legs for the jumper / penetration and finish in the 2nd half. He was better vs. MSU, but his foul shots looked extremely flat (i.e., tired legs) down the stretch against ISU.

 

[NaughtybyNapier]

Right. I think it's a combination of the kids figuring it out, and the refs giving them a kinder whistle than in the regular season...which doesn't have to be nefarious, we saw it happen with Kemba.

I know others have mentioned it earlier, but I think it was borne out again against MSU: it seems like our guards are subject to more uncalled-contact the deeper they get. Bazz is especially adept at drawing the whistle (6 fouls induced in the second half on Sunday was a tour de force of this) on the perimeter or at the initial point of penetration, but both guards have been mugged a few times late in games during the tournament with no call. Don't know if it's their size/speed that makes it hard for some officials, but it is frustrating. One very half-baked theory I have is that I think Shabazz so dominates the game on offense that refs sometimes might feel the need to pick their spots in order to feel in control of the game (even by omitting calls). Not sure if you have any theory on this.

 

[tzznandrew]

I know others have mentioned it earlier, but I think it was borne out again against MSU: it seems like our guards are subject to more uncalled-contact the deeper they get. Bazz is especially adept at drawing the whistle (6 fouls induced in the second half on Sunday was a tour de force of this) on the perimeter or at the initial point of penetration, but both guards have been mugged a few times late in games during the tournament with no call. Don't know if it's their size/speed that makes it hard for some officials, but it is frustrating. One very half-baked theory I have is that I think Shabazz so dominates the game on offense that refs sometimes might feel the need to pick their spots in order to feel in control of the game (even by omitting calls). Not sure if you have any theory on this.

I saw what you were saying in the first half, although I thought he got a pretty kind whistle in the second half.

I think it mostly has to do with size. The Harrisons are big, and so when they make contact with a defender even slightly out of position (or just set), the defender is pretty clearly moved. Boat and Shabazz make contact, and the defender can often hold position better. Maybe I'm making that up, but it's as good a guess as I can think of...and I seem to recall Boat and Napier getting swallowed at the rim a number of times.

 

[NaughtybyNapier]

I saw what you were saying in the first half, although I thought he got a pretty kind whistle in the second half.

I think it mostly has to do with size. The Harrisons are big, and so when they make contact with a defender even slightly out of position (or just set), the defender is pretty clearly moved. Boat and Shabazz make contact, and the defender can often hold position better. Maybe I'm making that up, but it's as good a guess as I can think of...and I seem to recall Boat and Napier getting swallowed at the rim a number of times.

Yeah. And I'm certainly not saying they're always getting fouled either, but the size makes a difference in how things are called. Shabazz is sometimes lackadaisical with the ball in traffic and Boatright struggles inside because of his size. Boat's effectiveness has been vastly upgraded by his decision making to not drive too deep, but instead to pull up from 10-12 feet or kick. Opposing guards simply can't stay in front of him -- much less the mismatched bigs that Ollie's perimeter weave often leave on our guards. It's made our offense so much more versatile.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

Yeah, that makes sense. I'm guessing we'll put RB on Wilbekin and have him go testiculos to the wall, and stash SN on Frazier? As long as Shabazz doesn't drift off when he's on the weak side we should be in decent shape, and it'll save his legs for the jumper / penetration and finish in the 2nd half. He was better vs. MSU, but his foul shots looked extremely flat (i.e., tired legs) down the stretch against ISU.

The Napier on Frazier match-up from a defensive perspective does not favor us. Bazz failed to get over Payne screens vs. MSU and Harris hurt us.

 

[KhalidElAmida]

Yeah, that makes sense. I'm guessing we'll put RB on Wilbekin and have him go testiculos to the wall, and stash SN on Frazier? As long as Shabazz doesn't drift off when he's on the weak side we should be in decent shape, and it'll save his legs for the jumper / penetration and finish in the 2nd half. He was better vs. MSU, but his foul shots looked extremely flat (i.e., tired legs) down the stretch against ISU.

Exactly, hopefully that's the gameplan. Frazier tends to just drift around the perimeter, so Bazz won't have to exert much energy defensively. I'm interested to see How they play Bazz too... I doubt they'll want Wilbekin chasing him around all game. I'd expect KO to put Samuel on Wilbekin every once in a while to give Boat a breather. We could even see TS on Prather some if we go small and need to use Giff on one of their big guys.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

The key is slowing down Patric Young. That is the only mismatch they have on UConn.

Young is a very good experienced player that did hurt us in the first game against Florida. Arguably I would rather have Young on the court than Chris Walker right now. Walker is a better defensive player and his length is very disruptive. Chris Walker is the type of guy no one is talking about that all of a sudden breaks out (unexpectedly to some). Similar to Lee @ Kentucky. Finishing at the rim with Walker on the court will be difficult.

I do agree that slowing Young down is important though.