Improving Draftability of Top Prospects: Calipari and Ollie

[pj]

John Calipari is the best recruiter every to coach a college basketball program. He has an amazing, amazing track record of bringing top talent to Kentucky.

But what is his record of developing talent? Has he improved his recruits NBA prospects?

And how would Kevin Ollie compare on the same metrics?

I'm a skeptic of the UK idolatry but we need to run the numbers. Here's what I did:
- Track the 247sports composite ranking of every recruit at UK from 2009-present (Calipari's recruits) and UConn from 2013-present (Ollie's recruits)
- Generally, about 2/3 of the 60 NBA draft picks played US high school ball and were ranked by recruiting services. If high school ranks were preserved through college, you'd expect a player ranked 1-20 to become an NBA first round draft pick and a player ranked 21-40 to become a second round draft pick.
- As a general rule, you can translate high school rank to NBA draft position by multiplying by 1.5. So a high school number 2 prospect projects to be an NBA #3 pick, high school number 10 projects to a #15 pick, etc.
- Compare each incoming recruit's high school rank to his NBA pick number. If the NBA pick is 1.5 times the high school rank or less, player gets an OVERPERFORM rating for progressing in college. If the NBA pick is more than 1.5 times the high school rank, player gets an UNDERPERFORM.
- I gave OVERPERFORM ratings to any player drafted regardless of high school ranking; UNDERPERFORM only to players ranked in the high school top 40.

What I found:

Ollie gets 1 UNDERPERFORM (Daniel Hamilton, HS rank 17, draft pick 56). He can pick up an OVERPERFORM this coming May if Amida Brimah (HS rank 241, NBAdraft.net projected draft pick 58) gets drafted. So he's 0-1 with potential to go to 1-1.

Calipari gets 10 OVERPERFORMs and 20 UNDERPERFORMs.

10 Overperformers: Eric Bledsoe, HS 57/NBA 18; John Wall HS 2/NBA 1; Enes Kanter HS 9/NBA 3; Michael Kidd-Gilchrist HS 3/NBA 2; Anthony Davis HS 1/NBA 1; Willie Cauley-Stein HS 43/NBA 6; Devin Booker HS 22/NBA 13; Trey Lyles HS 10/NBA 6; Karl-Anthony Towns HS 5/NBA 1; Jamal Murray HS 10/NBA 7.

20 Underperformers: Darnell Dodson 7/not drafted, Daniel Orton 16/29, DeMarcus Cousins 3/5, Eloy Vargas 16/not drafted, Doron Lamb 23/42, Terrence Jones 8/18, Brandon Knight 5/8, Kyle Wiltjer 20/not drafted, Marquis Teague 7/29, Archie Goodwin 15/29, Alex Poythress 7/not drafted, Nerlens Noel 1/6, Marcus Lee 18/transferred, Dakari Johnson 10/48, James Young 9/17, Aaron Harrison 6/not drafted, Andrew Harrison 5/44, Julius Randle 2/7, Tyler Ulis 19/34, Skal Labissiere 2/28.

For another view of this data, let's add a third category of "performance in line with HS ranking"; and only count as underperformers those who are not drafted. Calipari has a generally excellent track record of maintaining his recruit's expected draft position. Of these 30 players:
- 22 performed in line with expectations based on high school rank.
- 2 significantly overperformed (Bledsoe and Cauley-Stein).
- 6 significantly underperformed. These included 3 undrafted Top 10 rankings (Dodson, Poythress, Aaron Harrison), 2 undrafted top 20 rankings (Vargas, Wiltjer) and 1 transfer who tested the draft and failed (Marcus Lee).

In this alternative view, Ollie has one in line performer (Hamilton) and one potential overperformer this year (Brimah), no underperformers yet.

It's too early to tell how good Ollie will be at developing top players but Jalen Adams, Alterique Gilbert, and Makai Ashton-Langford are all top 40 HS players projected to be 2nd round picks, so we'll know more when they graduate.

Conclusion: I still don't get the Calipari idolatry. He probably doesn't harm his players' prospects but there's no evidence that he helps them either. He's had the luxury of working with top 10 players almost exclusively since arriving at Kentucky and these are very low-risk talents. His recruiting may be slipping a notch, as he's now taking more players in the 20-50 range, so we may get a better measure on his player development skills in 3-4 years. By the same token, it's too early to judge Ollie, but he's beginning to get players in the 20-50 range, and so we'll be able to judge his NBA development ability in 3-4 years too.

 

[intlzncster]

Didn't you already do this in another thread?

 

[auror]

This is a simplistic analysis, but it's a good thing to look at. You need to establish a global average to make any conclusions about Calipari's ability, though. What's the national average rate for HS ranked top 40 to get drafted in the NBA? It's also considerably easier for guys rated highly to fall vs. moving up, since there are more people behind them to move above them.

Basically 22/28 guys he got in who were expected to go to the NBA did so. That seems like a very high rate, to me, but each HS rank slot has a separate probability of making the NBA and you'd have to assess the baseline rate for each ranking slot to honestly evaluate it.

 

[willie99]

Squid has been coaching a long time, it's hard to argue he ever developed talent. Kids who come to him with NBA talent, leave with NBA talent.

Ollie is unknown and young, no data

Calhoun developed more talent than any coach, he coached up talent and he's second to none

 

[UConnSwag11]

Squid has been coaching a long time, it's hard to argue he ever developed talent. Kids who come to him with NBA talent, leave with NBA talent.

Ollie is unknown and young, no data

Calhoun developed more talent than any coach, he coached up talent and he's second to none

ollie has also never coached at any level and is still learning... we set a bar for him unfairly after the NC

 

[pj]

Didn't you already do this in another thread?

Not in the same detail. I did reach the same conclusion.

Calhoun developed more talent than any coach, he coached up talent and he's second to none

Calhoun would come out way ahead of Calipari, he'd have a lot of under-40 guys who made the NBA and all his top 20 guys. I would like to see the same analysis for Calhoun. He was a much better developer of talent but not nearly as good a recruiter, he only had a few top 10 guys his whole career.

 

[Tenspro2002]

ollie has also never coached at any level and is still learning... we set a bar for him unfairly after the NC

Shouldn't the bar for this elite program have been a bit higher in the first place when selecting a new coach?

 

[pj]

Shouldn't the bar for this elite program have been a bit higher in the first place when selecting a new coach?

Kevin Ollie is the same age (44) as Jim Calhoun was when he started coaching UConn.

Kevin Ollie's 13 years in the NBA and 7 years coaching at UConn as assistant coach and then head coach are worth more than Jim Calhoun's 4 years experience coaching at Old Lyme High School & Dedham High School, and 14 years coaching at Northeastern.

KO was the best we could do then and he's the best we can do now.

 

[Tenspro2002]

KO was the best we could do then

That's what I take issue with.

A 3x national champion, top 10 program in NCAA history, and the best we could do is an unproven coach that we'd have to make excuses for over the next 5 years and hope he develops?

That's Yankee Conference, small-time thinking.

 

[pj]

That's what I take issue with.

A 3x national champion, top 10 program in NCAA history, and the best we could do is an unproven coach that we'd have to make excuses for over the next 5 years and hope he develops?

That's Yankee Conference, small-time thinking.

I don't think you understand the concepts of (a) loyalty and (b) making an investment in a young guy who has the potential to do for the university over the next 30 years what Jim Calhoun did in the last 30.

 

[upstater]

Shouldn't the bar for this elite program have been a bit higher in the first place when selecting a new coach?

Do you think say Shaka Smart would have lead the 2014 team to a championship?

 

[c29328]

Any analysis of efficiency in developing talent for the NBA has to include their starting point. Calhoun should not get credit for "Coaching up" Andre and Squid shouldn't get credit for coaching up top 25 HS talent. Your process can be beat up a bit but at least it looks at that. I could coach some of Kentucky's talent and get reasonable NBA results. Give Squid credit for getting the, He is outstanding. But you need pretty blurry glasses to think he develops them..

 

[UConnSwag11]

That's what I take issue with.

A 3x national champion, top 10 program in NCAA history, and the best we could do is an unproven coach that we'd have to make excuses for over the next 5 years and hope he develops?

That's Yankee Conference, small-time thinking.

that's also a school coming under intense scrutiny, post season ban, being left out of the aac due to bc and espn, and recruiting sanctions

 

[intlzncster]

Kevin Ollie is the same age (44) as Jim Calhoun was when he started coaching UConn.

Kevin Ollie's 13 years in the NBA and 7 years coaching at UConn as assistant coach and then head coach are worth more than Jim Calhoun's 4 years experience coaching 14 years coaching at Northeastern

Definitely not. JC came in ready made. KO did not. JC had the experience of building teams (at a school without a great tradition), navigating the season, taking them to the NCAAs, and coaching great college players (Reggie Lewis). KO did not.

JC had six regional Coach of the Year awards, a record of 245–138 and remains the institution's all-time winningest coach. KO had nada.

Not even close actually.

 

[pj]

Definitely not. JC came in ready made. KO did not. JC had the experience of building teams (at a school without a great tradition), navigating the season, taking them to the NCAAs, and coaching great college players (Reggie Lewis). KO did not.

Not even close actually.

When did people know that JC had come in "ready made"? Probably in the Dream Season of 1989-90. The corresponding point in KO's career will be the 2020-21 season. After that season, we may look back on 2016-17 as the year when KO grew up as a coach and became a master.

JC had some experience that KO lacked, but KO has experiences that JC lacked, like 13 NBA seasons. You can't say KO's resume is worse.

 

[gtcam]

When did people know that JC had come in "ready made"? Probably in the Dream Season of 1989-90. The corresponding point in KO's career will be the 2020-21 season. After that season, we may look back on 2016-17 as the year when KO grew up as a coach and became a master.

JC had some experience that KO lacked, but KO has experiences that JC lacked, like 13 NBA seasons. You can't say KO's resume is worse.

Are you kidding???? From a coaching standpoint you certainly can

 

[Doctor Hoop]

Squid has been coaching a long time, it's hard to argue he ever developed talent. Kids who come to him with NBA talent, leave with NBA talent.

Exactly.

 

[auror]

It took Calhoun like 12 years to make a Final Four.

 

[Kitaman]

Sorry but Squid ain't as bad a coach or player developer as many would like to think. Sour grapes or whatever if he was so bad at player development the definitive 'word' would certainly be out there, well beyond the Boneyard.

If they come in NBA ready and leave NBA ready, well he did his job and can get credit for not ruining them.

You can tell Cal does not bother me, he's like Coach K back in the 2000s. UConn often beats them heads up, and that's fine with me, especially when the season is on the line.