- Joined
- Dec 2, 2012
- Messages
- 63
- Reaction Score
- 203
I understand your points and I have no specific objections them taken one at a time. Things don't happen in a vacuum though. Are you suggesting the B1G would jeopardize their strong move into the Northeast by pursuing a risky wooing strategy in the Southeast (North Carolina)? That's what I'm objecting to, the idea that the B1G needn't follow a cogent expansion strategy. The B1G has significant unfinished business in the Northeast at the moment. A bi-regional B1G is difficult enough without adding significant risk in the form of a tri-regional strategy. Attempting entrée into the Southeast now puts both the Northeast and Southeast in jeopardy. What happens in New York if the ACC picks up UConn while the B1G is traipsing around the Carolinas? Forget whether UNC would choose to join the B1G in the foreseeable future, why would the B1G put the entire conference at risk with a Carolina strategy?
Does wining and dining the Carolinas, maybe Georgia too, plus Longhorn territory and its northern environs while you haven't even shored up your base make sense to you? I get where the people are but how do you get them in a way that makes sense?
I agree. The B1G does have unfinished business in the NE. And UConn is sitting there like a low hanging fruit for the ACC to pick off the tree, thus shoring up the NE for the ACC.
But what's the B1G going to do?
Absent raiding the SEC, the B1G has no one to pair with UConn right now. Is the B1G really going to be able to successfully raid the SEC? I'm not feeling it.
The B1G will probably have to negotiate its new TV contract with its current 14 members. Right now the rumor out there is that the new contract may be worth $44.5M per school beginning in 2017, presumably increasing each year thereafter because these TV contracts are always back-loaded.
If so, that will get the attention of B12 and ACC schools. If the B1G TV contract is large enough, I think it could be that some B12 and ACC schools might refuse to re-up when the GORs approach the time for renegotiation (around 2020). Taking into account all the variables I know of, I think the B12 is much more likely to re-fracture than is the ACC.
I argue that Kansas would very probably be one of those schools that would refuse to re-up. I then argue that Kansas could peel off Oklahoma, Oklahoma could peel off Texas, and "hello Connecticut, welcome to the B1G" since UConn caps off the northern end of the NE Corridor and has no GOR to deal with. A league of 18 is viable, schedule-wise.
I just don't see how you can get there today, however, since the GORs have all the schools in the B12 and the ACC tied up for awhile.
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