Houston is a 100% lock. First, Texas wants them in. Well, they don't care about the
University of Houston. They care about Houston...building a campus there. Second, the TX politicians are applying huge pressure to Tech and the TX privates to vote with UT. They will. Third, the B12 rhetoric of late is that the conference is losing recruits to the SEC after A&M's move. To me, that is more on each individual program than the conference as a whole. But they seem to think that adding UH will bring back some exposure and level the recruiting battleground. Fourth, they had the best 2015 football record. The Big 12 seems about as short-sighted and small potatoes as any dead conference ever did and, for that reason, I think 2015 football record will be a metric used.
From there, who knows. Every candidate has its warts. BYU has its honor code and no Sunday play issues. Cincinnati doesn't own its home market. UConn is far away. UCF is 0-12 as a "football school". Memphis has very little fan support and history of success. I guess whichever candidate puts together the best 5 minute YouTube video to sell itself will win.
The question is really will they expand by 2 or 4. Flugs/BTM (whoever he/they are) did raise a good question last night. The Big12's relationship with ESPN is over. It was over the second ESPN finalized plans to launch an ACC Network. ESPN made its choice - they chose to invest in the ACC. That means the B12 needs to look to other outlets. FOX wants in the game as we all know and FOX wants east, not west. Most TV networks do. To me, that would mean UConn is at the top of FOX's list given our market reach. The B12 is talking a lot about "in the air" footprints too - something that UConn dominates amongst the G5. If live sports streaming is in the B12's "2024 and beyond" plans, then UConn is at the top of that list too.
But this thread is about what happens if the B12 expands with the 2016 football season as its top metric. The B12 is romper room and it would not surprise me if they just pick the 2 top 2015 football records and be done with it.
If UConn is passed over, the first thing we have to do is re-open the AAC TV deal. There are 4 "Type A" schools in the old Big East contract that said if any of them left (UConn, Cinci, Houston, UCF) that the contract would be re-opened. If the B12 expands with UH + UC/UCF, then that's grounds for UConn to go back and demand our Tier 3 media rights be returned to us. Right there, that's $9.14M/yr. That payout actually might be more money than what the B12 will pay its new members in a "phase in" period. I highly doubt that B12 Presidents or ADs will want to pay Houston or Cincinnati or Memphis or UCF full load for quite some time, given where their AD budgets are currently sitting. You have to spend money to make money and none of those choices have run an acceptable Power Conference AD budget whatsoever. So, UConn gets its Tier 3 media rights returned, puts over $9M/yr in the bank through the end of the IMG and SNY contracts are complete, and socks away some negotiated exit fee money from the departing AAC schools to support another year or two of P5 AD budget expense. But yes, we will need to subsidize to continue investing in our sports at a power conference level.
Second, Nike apparel contract expires after 2017. This contract negotiation is in David Benedict's wheelhouse. The current deal signed in 2010 pays $2.775M/yr. If we can double that - we have had a BCS bowl and 2 MBB national championships in our current Nike deal - then that will help in the interim.
Third, UConn fans and alumni donor support will be pivotal. I've read a lot of "if we get into the Big 12, I'll donate". Nobody can tell anyone what to do with their money so far be it from me to do the same...but I will anyway.
If you have the money at your disposal now, *now* is the time UConn needs it. Donor support is a very important metric and it is a shame it has taken UConn so long to unite the alumni into one huge donor pool, but alumni is united now. Fans are united now. If we truly want out of this garbage AAC conference, we will be asked to help fund the AD so it can continue to spend on a power conference level and compete for national championships. Does that suck? Sure does. Especially when you consider that fans/alumni from the other candidates don't support their schools and, if they do, their AD budgets are about half the amount of UConn's. But I guess it is what it is.
Fourth, I hope our trio of ADs camp out in South Bend every weekend. Become drinking buddies. Sit together at the same poker table. Spend a few Saturdays together. Schedule some basketball home and homes. Schedule a hoops game at TD Garden or Madison Square. Schedule a football game in New York or Boston or South Bend. Schedule a hockey game at Madison Square Garden or Barclay's. Continue to build a relationship and show ND how much UConn would help enhance their northeast presence. After seeing that, maybe they decide to join the ACC when the time comes. Then we slide in at 16 and never have to worry about CR again in in our lifetimes.