How tough was UConn's 2014-15 schedule?

[Glenn]

I compared UConn's schedule to its schedule over the last seven years using three different metrics. In each case I found that it was a bit easier than previous years, but pretty comparable to the 2008-09 campaign. Even though it was a bit easier, I don't think the schedule was as different from prior years as some would imagine based on all the complaining about our conference schedule.

For each metric the basic data is the Massey ranking at the end of the year, and I assumed a ranking (the # 5 team for example) was the same quality of team in each year. The first metric is how many top 5, top 10, or top 25 teams did we play? I don't care about teams ranked below 25 as we haven't lost to such a creature in 20 years. AS you can see, this year was easier.

The second metric is expected number of wins. For this I used the assumption that we would win 50% of our games against the #2 team, 52% against the #3 team... up to 100% against teams ranked 25 and below. This odds are roughly equal to our historical averages since 1994. As shown in the table below, the expected wins ranges from 26.5 to 28.4. I dropped one game from 2014 to keep the length of the seasons the dame at 30. Of course we had better records than that because we had better than average UConn teams.

The third metric was expected point spread where I estimated that with a regression of the log ranking against actual margins of victory over the past seven years (empirically this generates a point spread of 1 point against #1, 16 points against #5, 30 points against #25 and 48 points against #200). Again our margin of victory would have been expected to be larger this past season than in previous years.

 

[VAUConnFan]

Good Job!

My first exposure to the Massey Ratings:
1. It is nice that a 10 loss team like Stanford can still be a Top 10 Massey team.
2. I am not sold on Princeton at #8.
3. Great to see programs like South Florida, Florida Gulf Coast, Dayton, and George Washington finish in the Top 25.
4. Gotta love Seton Hall at #45. My fingers will be crossed for other once proud programs like Providence, Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion, Virginia, and Long Beach State.

 

[mhshuskies]

UCONN schedule will always be weaker because they never play anyone as good as themselves (except in practice)!!!!!

 

[DavidinNaples]

Glenn,
Really good work... I would slightly disagree w/ conclusion... You are looking at only the regular season schedule, not teams played in the tournaments as well.
I prefer to look at the whole season, every game. Based on the final coaches poll, UConn's 2015 schedule, PLUS tournaments, included the following:

1. UConn played 13 games against the top 25 teams.
2. UConn played the #2, #3 and #4 teams a total of four times. (ND twice)
3. UConn won those four games by a combined 76 points. That's an average of 19 pts/game.
4. Dayton finished #17 and USF was #24.
5. UConn's only loss, in overtime, was to #14, Stanford.
6. Notre Dame (#2), South Carolina (#3) and Maryland (#4) had a combined 9 losses.
7. Baylor (#5), Tennessee (#6) and Florida State (#7) had 15 combined losses.

UConn schedules anyone and everyone they can fit in, given the conference schedule they MUST play.
It would not have mattered if UConn had played every one of the other 24 teams in the poll. The results would have been the same. UConn #1....!!

Go Huskies..!!

 

[UcMiami]

Very Nice!
A few thoughts:
1. I would have liked to see it including the conference tournament since that is part of the pre NCAA picture used to seed teams - it is un-scheduled, but to me is still part of the 'regular' season. Not a big deal and obviously would have hurt Uconn's 2015 strength in comparison to previous years.

2. Based on final polls its is pretty rare for a team to have 4 or 5 games against top 5 teams. For this to happen, a conference has to include another top 5 team - the OBE with Uconn and ND and going back Uconn and Rutgers for a year or two is pretty exceptional in the modern universe. (Throw in a year or two with Louisville? in the final rankings) The OB12 with Oklahoma, Baylor, and Texas A&M is the only conference I can think of in similar ways and that situation only existed for one or two years when all three were strong. The current SEC with SC and TN might rise to that, but they have unbalanced schedules and at least currently TN and SC only play once in the regular season.

3. For Uconn (when they are a strong team) and other top 5 teams, the games against top 5 and top 10 teams are the real measuring sticks for me. In your time frame Uconn has lost 12 games including NCAAs and 10 of those losses are to top 5 teams with the other two being Stanford (#12) this past year and St. John's (#13) in 2011. You can add in the 2008 season and the numbers are 14 losses and 11 top 5, with the other loss to Rutgers (#7)

4. Follow on to #3: That works out to 3 losses to teams outside the top five in 8 years, or basically a single loss every 3 years. Or a loss outside the top ten once every 4 years! The other side is almost 1.5 losses to a team in the top five each year (11 losses in 8 years.)

5. The reason 2009 so closely matches 2015 is that our BE schedule doubled up on Rutgers (#19) still, ND (#22) had yet to hit their current streak of excellence and we only played Louisville (#2) and Pittsburgh (#9) once before the conference tournament. It was also the year before we added Stanford to the regular season schedule (we played them in 2008 but as part of a holiday tournament.)

6. Based on the points in three and four, the weakest schedule in actual 'likely losses' is 2010 as that is the only year we played only one other top 5 team.

7. I'll say again, MOV numbers are really pretty meaningless to me because they are really driven by the coaching decisions and the skill of the bench and not by the strength of the standard rotation for the team. If someone were to calculate MOV by using 21 pts. as the value for all wins by 21 or more points but the actual MOV for all wins by 20 or fewer points I think you would have a more valid calculation for Uconn and most teams. I do find the MOV against top 10/top 25 to be a more interesting evaluation.

 

[triaddukefan]

Very Nice!
A few thoughts:


2. Based on final polls its is pretty rare for a team to have 4 or 5 games against top 5 teams. For this to happen, a conference has to include another top 5 team - the OBE with Uconn and ND and going back Uconn and Rutgers for a year or two is pretty exceptional in the modern universe. (Throw in a year or two with Louisville? in the final rankings) The OB12 with Oklahoma, Baylor, and Texas A&M is the only conference I can think of in similar ways and that situation only existed for one or two years when all three were strong. The current SEC with SC and TN might rise to that, but they have unbalanced schedules and at least currently TN and SC only play once in the regular season.
.

How about the OACC of 2006-2008 ?? Final AP regular season Poll ..... 2006 1) UNC 3) Maryland 4) Duke

2007 1) Duke 2) UNC 6) Maryland


2008 2) UNC 5) Maryland

 

[UcMiami]

How about the OACC of 2006-2008 ?? Final AP regular season Poll ..... 2006 1) UNC 3) Maryland 4) Duke

2007 1) Duke 2) UNC 6) Maryland


2008 2) UNC 5) Maryland

Good point - didn't really think that far back (except to mention the Rutgers situation) but absolutely correct and in a league that included home and home for those teams I believe. The main point was that it is pretty rare, and typically lasts only a year or two. The ND/Uconn situation that ran for 4 years in the league is I think unique, and the fact that the year before ND arrived it was Louisville, and a few years earlier it was Rutgers is just amazing to me. Football really did blow up the greatest women's basketball conference to have ever existed.

Was about to post you left out MD/ND but then realized one is a parvenu in your league and the other departed!

 

[VAUConnFan]

Good point - didn't really think that far back (except to mention the Rutgers situation) but absolutely correct and in a league that included home and home for those teams I believe. The main point was that it is pretty rare, and typically lasts only a year or two. The ND/Uconn situation that ran for 4 years in the league is I think unique, and the fact that the year before ND arrived it was Louisville, and a few years earlier it was Rutgers is just amazing to me. Football really did blow up the greatest women's basketball conference to have ever existed.

Was about to post you left out MD/ND but then realized one is a parvenu in your league and the other departed!

Could not agree more. Football blew up a darn good men's basketball conference as well.