How many games will we win this year?

[06029]

I'm not sure I follow, but is that saying BC is out third toughest opponent next year?

They have them ranked higher than UVA, Cuse and Navy. Not that I agree, but BC does get a bunch back from injury including their best RB, transfer in at QB and if the Uconn logic of the OL being 1 year older and better is carried forward to BC, they have that too. I find it hard to believe in a quantum leap forward fro BC after last season but apparent ESPN does.

 

[DoctorWho85]

They have them ranked higher than UVA, Cuse and Navy. Not that I agree, but BC does get a bunch back from injury including their best RB, transfer in at QB and if the Uconn logic of the OL being 1 year older and better is carried forward to BC, they have that too. I find it hard to believe in a quantum leap forward fro BC after last season but apparent ESPN does.

So the offense that scored 6 point, SIX, at it's spring game with normal scoring, it's going to some how find a way to beat our defense which will be arguably just as good as theirs? And this is why I stopped watching or reading ESPN.

 

[freescooter]

So the offense that scored 6 point, SIX, at it's spring game with normal scoring, it's going to some how find a way to beat our defense which will be arguably just as good as theirs? And this is why I stopped watching or reading ESPN.

Well they are a P5 doncha know. That's worth a touchdown in mouseville.

 

[06029]

So the offense that scored 6 point, SIX, at it's spring game with normal scoring, it's going to some how find a way to beat our defense which will be arguably just as good as theirs? And this is why I stopped watching or reading ESPN.

I didn't say I agreed. But is Uconn's O which was the 1's against the 2's as good as it looked in the spring game? I'm not convinced of that either. Spring games mean nothing (Bama's score was 7-3).

 

[RedStickHusky]

That ESPN assessment is exactly what we should want them to think. Defying expectations will be a lot more fun than simply meeting them.

 

[Afroabe224]

Not sure about that FPI stuff but if our win total O/U = 5, BET THE HOUSE on the over!! #indiacowetrust

 

[huskypantz]

Not sure about that FPI stuff but if our win total O/U = 5, BET THE HOUSE on the over!! #indiacowetrust

How about 1.8 % chance to win the conference? That is worth putting a few bucks on in Vegas.

 

[uconnphil2016]

ESPN's statistics stuff is usually pretty dumb. Anything that gives us a 25% chance of beating BC and 50% chance of beating Cincy (who we literally ALWAYS lose to) I'm not going to pay much attention to

 

[ZOOCONN]

ESPN Power Index Prediction: Connecticut 2016 FPI - Huskies - ESPN

I think the craziest part of this is that we have the same chance of beating USF as we do of beating Houston????

 

[pepband99]

I think the craziest part of this is that we have the same chance of beating USF as we do of beating Houston????

Yeah, when i saw the USF projection, I stopped reading. I don't buy into the hype there at all.

 

[DoctorWho85]

I didn't say I agreed. But is Uconn's O which was the 1's against the 2's as good as it looked in the spring game? I'm not convinced of that either. Spring games mean nothing (Bama's score was 7-3).

I apologize if I implied you agreed, not my intent. It's just frustrating to me (and I'm sure a lot others) that ESPN is right down the road and can't even take the time to properly research the school. I know that's a lot to ask from a network that basically is the TMZ of sports now and only reports Lebron James's shoes, or something about the Golden State Warriors. Do you know how they come to those numbers? I tried googling the metrics and I really couldn't find anything

 

[Husky25]

Makes good sense to me. We're favored in 5 games (albeit very slightly against Navy); we're dogs by 2 points or less in 4 games; and close to a TD dog in 3 games.

Before folks think being a dog at BC is crazy ask yourself this question, what would that defense (which returns this season) have done to our offense last season? If they have any type of offense this season that game is a slug fest.

There is literally no data from which these percentages are reasonably derived. At best, these projections are based on 2015. A year after which coaches changed programs, Seniors have graduated, recruits have yet to reach campus, and nary a down (that counts) has been played.

Boston College is an early favorite 7 months ahead of time only because of the perceived strength of their conference (They play FSU, Clemson, Vtech, and NC State) and because it is being played in Chestnut Hill.

Sure BC returns a stout defense, but the leader of that defense (and offense for that matter), the man who knew his players the best, the man who called the formations and personnel packages, is gone. so are plus a number of position coaches. How important is the loss of Coach Brown? UConn went from the #5 ranked defense - based on yardage - in 2012 to #27 in 2013 after Brown went to BC. In terms of scoring, UConn went from #27 (<19 ppga) to #86 (>30). BC gave up 15 ppg last year.

The other reason they are favored is because it is a "home game." Dare I say that unless BC restricts ticket sales to credit cards addressed in the 01--- and 02--- zip codes, UConn will make up far more than their allotment of tickets and BC will have a home game in name only.

The only game that I believe UConn has a less than reasonable shot at winning is at Houston. Cinci is at home, so I give UConn a puncher's chance. Navy lost their all-world option QB as well as (I think) their entire starting offensive line. Virginia? Bronco Mendenhall knows UConn, but he has a new roster and it isn't filled with 26 year old men this year. Also, a UConn team built on the back of sophomores went toe-to-toe with BYU last year for 51 minutes and were a bonehead penalty from having a chance at a game tying drive. Familiarity cuts both ways. Temple is a home game plus the owls lost 26 seniors, Tyler Matakevich among them. Finally, and this is just a gut feeling, I think South Florida is grossly overrated.

I think 7-5 should be the floor of expectations. 8-4 is completely reasonable, and dare I say upwards of 10-2 is within reach.

 

[uconndogs]

There is literally no data from which these percentages are reasonably derived. At best, these projections are based on 2015. A year after which coaches changed programs, Seniors have graduated, recruits have yet to reach campus, and nary a down (that counts) has been played.

Boston College is an early favorite 7 months ahead of time only because of the perceived strength of their conference (They play FSU, Clemson, Vtech, and NC State) and because it is being played in Chestnut Hill.

Sure BC returns a stout defense, but the leader of that defense (and offense for that matter), the man who knew his players the best, the man who called the formations and personnel packages, is gone. so are plus a number of position coaches. How important is the loss of Coach Brown? UConn went from the #5 ranked defense - based on yardage - in 2012 to #27 in 2013 after Brown went to BC. In terms of scoring, UConn went from #27 (<19 ppga) to #86 (>30). BC gave up 15 ppg last year.

The other reason they are favored is because it is a "home game." Dare I say that unless BC restricts ticket sales to credit cards addressed in the 01--- and 02--- zip codes, UConn will make up far more than their allotment of tickets and BC will have a home game in name only.

The only game that I believe UConn has a less than reasonable shot at winning is at Houston. Cinci is at home, so I give UConn a puncher's chance. Navy lost their all-world option QB as well as (I think) their entire starting offensive line. Virginia? Bronco Mendenhall knows UConn, but he has a new roster and it isn't filled with 26 year old men this year. Also, a UConn team built on the back of sophomores went toe-to-toe with BYU last year for 51 minutes and were a bonehead penalty from having a chance at a game tying drive. Familiarity cuts both ways. Temple is a home game plus the owls lost 26 seniors, Tyler Matakevich among them. Finally, and this is just a gut feeling, I think South Florida is grossly overrated.

I think 7-5 should be the floor of expectations. 8-4 is completely reasonable, and dare I say upwards of 10-2 is within reach.

Our defense after Brown fell off because we graduated NFL talent by the truckload. l liked brown, but he inherited tremendous talent at UConn.

 

[BugsyCT]

1) Maine (H)--W
2) Navy (A)--L
3) Virginia (H)--W
4) Syracuse (H)--W
5) Houston (A)--L
6) Cincy (H)--L
7) USF (A)--L
8) UCF (H)--W
9) ECU (A)--L
10) Temple (H)--W
11) BC (A)--W
12) Tulane (H)--W

7-5, but optimistic we can find as many as 9 wins if all goes well and the offense improves.

 

[blue93]

1) Maine (H)- W
2) Navy (A)- W
3) Virginia (H)- L
4) Syracuse (H)- W
5) Houston (A)- L
6) Cincy (H)- L
7) USF (A)- L
8) UCF (H)- W
9) ECU (A)- W
10) Temple (H)- W
11) BC (A)- W
12) Tulane (H)- W

I've got us at 8-4. Which means we won't go 8-4.

Sidenote: not sure why so many have us losing to Navy. They lose a ton on offense, and will have little time to gel by the time we get them. I think we win that one fairly easily.

 

[06029]

1)
Sidenote: not sure why so many have us losing to Navy. They lose a ton on offense, and will have little time to gel by the time we get them. I think we win that one fairly easily.

True triple option team that you face once a year that runs its offense to perfection no matter the QB. 12 out of the last 13 seasons at least 8 wins (exception was 2011; 5-7). Away game, week 2. How much of the pre-season do you spend on defending the option versus prepping your D for the full season? Fairly easy win? Love the pre-season optimism but easily might be the wrong word. It is potentially the hardest road game of the year because that stadium is always full.

 

[freescooter]

To me Navy is a winnable game next year. Yea the option can cause all manner of problems but that quarterback was so far above average that replacing him will be very tough. There are other ones I worry about like Temple and at ECU more than Navy.

 

[jdb50]

Most likely losses are at Houston and S. Florida. At BC will be a tough assignment and until I see our offense in action I put this in the loss column. Winning all home games like we have done before is quite possible this year. So 9-3 is within reach. Could be a fun ride.

 

[RedStickHusky]

Interesting. Always hard to prognosticate because the other teams get to vote but it looks like the swing games, at least in terms of BY perception are Navy, and USF and then ECU and BC on a second tier. Personally, I like what Niamutololo does, and I'd be surprised if Navy drops off much; on the other hand, while USF may continue to be improving, I think we will too. That game was a tale of two halves last year and they got us with a half-time adjustment (pound the rock) that we couldn't counter. Those games both look competitive to me but I think USF is the more winnable. 'Cuse, and Va at home and BC anywhere are all statement games; gotta have two of those, although three would put us at the upper end of projections. I'm sticking with 7-5 as a 'won't be disappointed' Mendoza line; if the program turns a corner on specials and we generate t/o's on defense the ceiling could very well be 10 games. Can't wait to see.

 

[TheDoggPound]

Hardest games are Houston and Cincinnati. We owe South Florida a nice whopping after putting up 600 yards of offense and losing.

 

[uconnphil2016]

I second that. We're going to beat USF after what happened at home against them this past year. We'll be seeking redemption. We owned them in that game. Such a frustrating loss.

 

[weyuo]

There is literally no data from which these percentages are reasonably derived. At best, these projections are based on 2015. A year after which coaches changed programs, Seniors have graduated, recruits have yet to reach campus, and nary a down (that counts) has been played.

Boston College is an early favorite 7 months ahead of time only because of the perceived strength of their conference (They play FSU, Clemson, Vtech, and NC State) and because it is being played in Chestnut Hill.

Sure BC returns a stout defense, but the leader of that defense (and offense for that matter), the man who knew his players the best, the man who called the formations and personnel packages, is gone. so are plus a number of position coaches. How important is the loss of Coach Brown? UConn went from the #5 ranked defense - based on yardage - in 2012 to #27 in 2013 after Brown went to BC. In terms of scoring, UConn went from #27 (<19 ppga) to #86 (>30). BC gave up 15 ppg last year.

The other reason they are favored is because it is a "home game." Dare I say that unless BC restricts ticket sales to credit cards addressed in the 01--- and 02--- zip codes, UConn will make up far more than their allotment of tickets and BC will have a home game in name only.

The only game that I believe UConn has a less than reasonable shot at winning is at Houston. Cinci is at home, so I give UConn a puncher's chance. Navy lost their all-world option QB as well as (I think) their entire starting offensive line. Virginia? Bronco Mendenhall knows UConn, but he has a new roster and it isn't filled with 26 year old men this year. Also, a UConn team built on the back of sophomores went toe-to-toe with BYU last year for 51 minutes and were a bonehead penalty from having a chance at a game tying drive. Familiarity cuts both ways. Temple is a home game plus the owls lost 26 seniors, Tyler Matakevich among them. Finally, and this is just a gut feeling, I think South Florida is grossly overrated.

I think 7-5 should be the floor of expectations. 8-4 is completely reasonable, and dare I say upwards of 10-2 is within reach.

I agree. I see Houston as a hornet's nest and if UConn somehow pulls a win out of that dog & cat fight it would be highly unexpected. Players will be limping onto the plane after that brawl and I think that is where the real losses will pile up. Who comes out of that still healthy and who does not? That is the real question.

USF?? They'll be going through pretty much the same gauntlet as the Huskies so it's gonna be a tough one to call till you see who's still healthy on each side and which team has momentum versus who is struggling coming into that week.

Virginia, I see a win there for the Huskies. They get the Cav's coming to the Rent after traveling to Oregon the week before. UConn comes home after enduring the triple option minus an All American QB and Virginia comes in licking their wounds after dealing with projected #18 Oregon's ever ready offense. The Huskies won't put up offensive numbers like the Ducks can but UConn's front seven on D should create new and even more intimidating nightmares for the Cav's than Oregon's did the week before.

Cincy is gonna be another knock down drag out brawl because after that AAC basketball tourney classic a month ago the Bearcats have definitely moved into the most heated rivalry the Huskies, or dare I say any two American schools have since the creation of the AAC. What two other schools have more disdain for each other in the AAC? Should be a good one. Advantage Cincinnati not just on revenge factor but the fact that UConn went to Houston the week before and the Bearcats were home vs USF.

UConn is going to have one, maybe two of those WTF!! How did you lose that kind of games mostly caused by a still struggling to find their rhythm offense. Could be Navy, could be BC. Could even be Syracuse or Temple but even though the team is maturing they still haven't showed(especially to themselves) that they are a "winning" program yet. They'll take a couple steps closer this year. 7-5 or 8-4, sure. A bowl win, you bet!! Go Huskies!!

 

[BlueDogs]

Start here - I HATE BC with a passion. That said, many are marking BC down as a W and I don't care how bad they are on paper, they are going to fight tooth and nail to come out with a W against us at Chestnut Hill. If they lose to us up there, the world ends. I still predict a W but not an easy one.

 

[uconndogs]

Start here - I HATE BC with a passion. That said, many are marking BC down as a W and I don't care how bad they are on paper, they are going to fight tooth and nail to come out with a W against us at Chestnut Hill. If they lose to us up there, the world ends. I still predict a W but not an easy one.

Totally agree. BC has a losing season and loses to us at Alumni, the Daz is toast.

 

[HuskyHawk]

with commentary

1) Maine (H)--W...enough said
2) Navy (A)--W...actually hoping the QB drop off is huge, but none of us knows
3) Virginia (H)--L...we will lose to one of the ACC teams(just how life works big picture) and it cannot be 'cuse or BC.
4) Syracuse (H)--W...See directly above
5) Houston (A)--L...sometimes revenge does matter.
6) Cincy (H)--L...we are 2-9 against them and lost the last 5. I'll pick a win after we have shown anything against them.
7) USF (A)--L...might be better than we think
8) UCF (H)--W...might be worse than we think (if possible)
9) ECU (A)--W...?????
10) Temple (H)--L...they might not be as good, but they beat us EASILY last year, did not look like they broke a sweat doing it, and the 27-3 score could have been much worse. Even if they are not as good, did the gap close that much?
11) BC (A)--W...once again, enough said
12) Tulane (H)--W...home win to wrap it up

My prediction: 7-5 (4-4)

This is where I am with one exception, I think we get one more win against UVA, Temple or USF. Not sure where it comes.