DobbsRover2
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- Aug 27, 2011
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Okay, I couldn't wait any longer for the March-April tourney games to roll around, so I decided to host my own DR2 Fab Fun Feb Frenzy using both Sagarin ratings and the Massey simulator to pit the top 32 teams against each other.
I chose 32 teams and 5 rounds because I'm too lazy to do the full 64, and I used the Sagarin top 32 teams instead of using Massey's because it would pit two Husky teams in the first round, though that almost proved very costly to Geno's crew. I had the first game hosted by the higher ranked team, and then it was neutral settings in the other rounds. No consideration given to the usual Selection criteria other than Sagarin's listings, but it worked out in cool ways. And yeah, got upsets, really surprising scores in a few cases, and results that were pretty similar to what can happen in the real Tournament.
The fun thing about the Massey simulator is that it gives you all the standard matchup evaluations of two teams according to mean, median, and most likely scores. But when you run that one-game simulation, anything can happen, and the more evenly matched the teams are, the more likely the underdog will win, just like in real games. Fans of a certain small team will be tickled orange and black.
UConn's matchups in my run of the Tourney were interesting for a couple of reasons. Here's my FFF results today with winner of Group A vs. D, and B vs. C.
Round 1 of 5 - the Opener
Group A
UConn (1) 87-79 Washington (8) (whew, too much rest from Monday's game)
Stanford (5) 59-43 North Carolina (4)
Florida State (2) 74-62 Nebraska (7)
Louisville (3) 69-64 James Madison (6)
Group B
South Carolina (1) 84-62 Oklahoma (8)
Iowa (4) 83-76 Kentucky (5)
Tennessee (2) 80-63 Texas (7)
Duke (3) 75-67 Florida Gulf Coast (6)
Group C
Notre Dame (1) 94-83 DePaul (8)
South Florida (5) 62-54 Syracuse (4) (AAC tough)
Princeton (2) 61-57 George Washington (7) (GW plays it close despite last night's debacle)
Oregon State (3) 71-54 Texas A&M (6)
Group D
Baylor (1) 84-55 California (8)
Rutgers (5) 66-33 Arizona State (4) (In Stratomatic Baseball, this would be a 6-6-6 roll)
Green Bay 7) 65-49 Maryland (2) (Truly the weird result region)
Mississippi State (3) 70-62 Northwestern (6)
Round 2 - Sweat 16
Group A
UConn 85-54 Stanford (No, this was not a revenge game. Nope, nope, nope.)
Florida State 69-64 Louisville (ACC teams collide)
Group B
South Carolina 83-76 Iowa
Duke 73-58 Tennessee (Who said the Dookies are dead?)
Group C
Notre Dame 77-66 South Florida
Princeton 71-54 Oregon State (Tiger D terrific)
Group D
Baylor 72-67 Rutgers
Green Bay 62-46 Mississippi State (Three mid majors advance to E8
Round 3 - Latte 8 (That time of the morning)
Group A
UConn 78-65 Florida State
Group B
South Carolina 81-69 Duke (SEC team finally gets to FF in the FFF)
Group C
Princeton 62-43 Notre Dame (Who woulda thunk it? But Loyd scores 34)
Group D
Baylor 68-65 Green Bay (Battle of the Bays, and three #1 seeds in FF)
Round 4 - Simmy Finals
A vs D
UConn 90-82 Baylor (Nina Davis shreds Husky D, but UConn holds on)
B vs C
South Carolina 70-67 Princeton (Tiger rampage finally ends)
Round 5 - We Are the Champions
UConn 86-75 South Carolina (A lot closer second time around)
There are of course many options for these sims and unlimited results, but I could live with these.
I chose 32 teams and 5 rounds because I'm too lazy to do the full 64, and I used the Sagarin top 32 teams instead of using Massey's because it would pit two Husky teams in the first round, though that almost proved very costly to Geno's crew. I had the first game hosted by the higher ranked team, and then it was neutral settings in the other rounds. No consideration given to the usual Selection criteria other than Sagarin's listings, but it worked out in cool ways. And yeah, got upsets, really surprising scores in a few cases, and results that were pretty similar to what can happen in the real Tournament.
The fun thing about the Massey simulator is that it gives you all the standard matchup evaluations of two teams according to mean, median, and most likely scores. But when you run that one-game simulation, anything can happen, and the more evenly matched the teams are, the more likely the underdog will win, just like in real games. Fans of a certain small team will be tickled orange and black.
UConn's matchups in my run of the Tourney were interesting for a couple of reasons. Here's my FFF results today with winner of Group A vs. D, and B vs. C.
Round 1 of 5 - the Opener
Group A
UConn (1) 87-79 Washington (8) (whew, too much rest from Monday's game)
Stanford (5) 59-43 North Carolina (4)
Florida State (2) 74-62 Nebraska (7)
Louisville (3) 69-64 James Madison (6)
Group B
South Carolina (1) 84-62 Oklahoma (8)
Iowa (4) 83-76 Kentucky (5)
Tennessee (2) 80-63 Texas (7)
Duke (3) 75-67 Florida Gulf Coast (6)
Group C
Notre Dame (1) 94-83 DePaul (8)
South Florida (5) 62-54 Syracuse (4) (AAC tough)
Princeton (2) 61-57 George Washington (7) (GW plays it close despite last night's debacle)
Oregon State (3) 71-54 Texas A&M (6)
Group D
Baylor (1) 84-55 California (8)
Rutgers (5) 66-33 Arizona State (4) (In Stratomatic Baseball, this would be a 6-6-6 roll)
Green Bay 7) 65-49 Maryland (2) (Truly the weird result region)
Mississippi State (3) 70-62 Northwestern (6)
Round 2 - Sweat 16
Group A
UConn 85-54 Stanford (No, this was not a revenge game. Nope, nope, nope.)
Florida State 69-64 Louisville (ACC teams collide)
Group B
South Carolina 83-76 Iowa
Duke 73-58 Tennessee (Who said the Dookies are dead?)
Group C
Notre Dame 77-66 South Florida
Princeton 71-54 Oregon State (Tiger D terrific)
Group D
Baylor 72-67 Rutgers
Green Bay 62-46 Mississippi State (Three mid majors advance to E8
Round 3 - Latte 8 (That time of the morning)
Group A
UConn 78-65 Florida State
Group B
South Carolina 81-69 Duke (SEC team finally gets to FF in the FFF)
Group C
Princeton 62-43 Notre Dame (Who woulda thunk it? But Loyd scores 34)
Group D
Baylor 68-65 Green Bay (Battle of the Bays, and three #1 seeds in FF)
Round 4 - Simmy Finals
A vs D
UConn 90-82 Baylor (Nina Davis shreds Husky D, but UConn holds on)
B vs C
South Carolina 70-67 Princeton (Tiger rampage finally ends)
Round 5 - We Are the Champions
UConn 86-75 South Carolina (A lot closer second time around)
There are of course many options for these sims and unlimited results, but I could live with these.