FYI - A bunch of smoke over at the Oklahoma CR Board

[dayooper]

A bunch of talk about Oklahoma leaving soon. First possibility was to the SEC and the next wad they were talking with both the SEC and the Big10. The last was that the SEC had caved and would take Okie St with them.

http://www.landthieves.com/board/sh...nt-Part-IX-Your-Argument-is-Overstated/page74

Two different people with inside "contacts" said almost right after each other that OU was talking with both SEC and Big10.

 

[pj]

It makes sense that the total dismemberment of the B12 would be under discussion. One-off moves are disarranging the college map and are not creating the biggest dollar payout. Managing the disposition of 10 schools at once allows a more rational rearrangement, creating more dollars ... It would explain Boren's recent comments -- the natural impulse of a former politician to get out in front of a parade he sees developing, so that he can claim to be its leader.

I'm guessing:
Texas to the ACC with a ND type deal keeping LHN.
Kansas and UConn to B1G.
OU and one other to SEC
OSU and Baylor to ACC.
Two others to either ACC or Pac, so that there is a voting majority to dissolve B12.
The last two leftovers to either Pac or AAC.

In this scenario I think WVU as the eastern outlier gets into either SEC or ACC.

 

[uconndogs]

Who knows? But, if the Big12 does implode like that I don't see it being a good thing for UCONN. And I think Baylor, TCU and TT would be screwed as well.

 

[pj]

Who knows? But, if the Big12 does implode like that I don't see it being a good thing for UCONN. And I think Baylor, TCU and TT would be screwed as well.

It is an opportunity for UConn. If Oklahoma decided to go B1G, OSU to SEC, that would risk leaving us without a partner, assuming Kansas is an essential bridge to OU. But I don't think it plays out that way.

 

[uconndogs]

My hope under that scenario is that Texas goes PAC, which I think is much better all around fit than the ACC. That potentially opens up both the ACC and BiG for UCONN or at least improves the odds.

 

[NickyNewark]

It is an opportunity for UConn. If Oklahoma decided to go B1G, OSU to SEC, that would risk leaving us without a partner, assuming Kansas is an essential bridge to OU. But I don't think it plays out that way.

Yeah PJ ..by studying Okies CR board their average fan seems to prefer the SEC to rejuvenate their program but Boren and the admins prefer the B1G. They fear Okie St will get an aTm type boost in relevance if thats the way it plays out. The SEC will not double up esp in a low population state like Oklahoma. Either way with Delany opening the NYC office and harping east I think UConn is gonna wrap it up on the eastern seaboard markets and at least 1 western FB power to appease the west although UK with UConn would be really nice for the B1G's hoops profile/image. Its possible in certain scenario's to see over 16 in the power conferences. Anyone interested in CR MUST read LT's..Okies CR board.

 

[uchusky32]

My hope under that scenario is that Texas goes PAC, which I think is much better all around fit than the ACC. That potentially opens up both the ACC and BiG for UCONN or at least improves the odds.

Texas doesn't want pacific time zone games.

 

[billybud]

I don't see a Big 12 breakup any time soon.

* post protected by GOR

 

[Drew]

It is an opportunity for UConn. If Oklahoma decided to go B1G, OSU to SEC, that would risk leaving us without a partner, assuming Kansas is an essential bridge to OU. But I don't think it plays out that way.

I would assume that the B1G will win out for OU. Getting to 16 for the B1g while being able to play UNL again every year would be a big allure for OU IMO

 

[Dooley]

The Big 12 is definitely on borrowed time. They won't expand into new markets to grow their conference (and revenue potential) because they want to continue to divide up an average piece of pie amongst less members. They don't see simple math in that 12 games + 1 high profile game between two good teams > 12 games. They don't have a conference network, but allow one member to play by a different set of rules (amidst a bunch of jealousy and resentment). Their membership is Great Plains centric in low density population areas where, in many towns, cows outnumber people 100:1. They have just 1 shot and 1 shot only at any sort of basketball conference credits come NCAA Tourney time. They have far less schools than any other "power" conference and, therefore, less fans, less alumni, less TV markets, less conference games, less championship games...less everything. They carry a slew of dead-weight "Plus 1s" that, if measured on their own merits/value, would be in the AAC.

If there was ever a conference that has taken a page out of the Big East playbook for conference mismanagement, it is certainly the B12.

 

[J187Money]

Who knows? But, if the Big12 does implode like that I don't see it being a good thing for UCONN. And I think Baylor, TCU and TT would be screwed as well.

Although an AAC with those three teams would be much better if we did get screwed.

 

[CTGoonie]

That's not a "bunch of smoke" over at Landthieves. It's just more BS by supposed insiders. That being said I would love to see Oklahoma and UConn to the B1G.

 

[hexlub]

A Big 12 breakup would not be a good thing for us. Put's too many free agents on the map with a much more attractive football resume.

So, if you consider that BYU, Cinc, UCF, Memphis, USF are in the same boat as us, you now throw TCU, TT, OSU, Baylor, etc. in there with us.

Expansion of Big12 is the most stable 'next step' in us moving somewhere.

 

[IMind]

A Big 12 break up would be better for us only in that playing TCU, TT, OSU, KSU, WVU, maybe KS etc is better than playing Tulsa and Tulane. Of course the first rule of CR would mean we'd be stuck in a conference with Tulsa and Tulane while everyone else went off and joined the B-12.

 

[don356]

I think the smartest thing the big 12 could do right now is go to 14 or 16 teams, and let the texas thing go into the wind. If the numbers would work, and i suspect they would, it would kind of force Texas's hand in the long run. If they were to leave, you still have a very good conference. The north/south divisions would work and preserve most of their good rivalries, not to mention increase their footprint.

 

[Dooley]

It makes sense that the total dismemberment of the B12 would be under discussion. One-off moves are disarranging the college map and are not creating the biggest dollar payout. Managing the disposition of 10 schools at once allows a more rational rearrangement, creating more dollars ... It would explain Boren's recent comments -- the natural impulse of a former politician to get out in front of a parade he sees developing, so that he can claim to be its leader.

I'm guessing:
Texas to the ACC with a ND type deal keeping LHN.
Kansas and UConn to B1G.
OU and one other to SEC
OSU and Baylor to ACC.
Two others to either ACC or Pac, so that there is a voting majority to dissolve B12.
The last two leftovers to either Pac or AAC.

In this scenario I think WVU as the eastern outlier gets into either SEC or ACC.

I agree with most of this. Texas clearly wants to keep the LHN and I can't see any conference, other than the ACC, allowing a member to get a sweetheart deal like the one they are giving ND. Texas can keep its LHN, be a full time member in all sports but football, and move towards an ACC/Independent football scheduling arrangement (6 games vs ACC opponents + 6 Indy games) similar to one ND was given.

KU and UConn would bring tremendous value, markets and basketball to the B1G. But I'm guessing that current members will pull hard for a football add. OU fans seem to want to go to the SEC for football reasons but the real money would be in going to the B1G. It might be an unpopular move similar to how Maryland's fans reacted, but they are beginning to see the merits.

OU + UConn delivers everything to the B1G with a nicely wrapped bow. East/West add for schedule balance. Adding OU delivers football for the football fans of the B1G. Adding UConn delivers hoops/winter sports for those B1G fans. OU delivers TV ratings in football crazed OK (and surrounding areas). UConn wraps up the northeast corridor for the B1G forever with the combo of PSU, RU and UConn...the 3 largest schools in the northeast. Neither are AAU but working hard to get there, but both bring terrific academics and are top public schools. Both would come without any kind of school network baggage and "equal revenue division" concerns.

About the only concern with OU is whether or not they would have to drag along their in-state deadweight OSU with them in any sort of a CR move. OSU academics are horrendous and I can't see B1G Presidents approving inviting them. They are also non-AAU but rank 149th (!) and have an endowment on par with us (in the $380M range). A 76% acceptance rate makes Louisville Community College look like an Ivy. If there was any sort of way to convince the SEC into taking them, it might work.

Anyway, my guess for B12 dissolution would be similar to yours.

 

[FDNY99]

I don't see a Big 12 breakup any time soon.

* post protected by GOR

You mean to tell me that FSU won't try to leave the ACC if the ACCN doesn't get off the ground? GOR's are going to be challenged it's just a matter of if it happens in the ACC or B-12 first!

 

[DarthGrumpy]

It appears that OU has reached its breaking point over XII expansion and football playoffs with U Texas. Even the rumor that the XII would consider adding U Houston, which does nothing marketwise for the XII, make it clear that Texas and Texas politicians control the XII. If the XII is locked out fo the football playoff again this season, the XII will collapse. One big question to be resolved is to what degree the 6 states schools are tied to each (Oklahoma & OK State, Kansas & K State, U Texas & Texas Tech) other because I don't see the B1G nor the SEC doubling down on Kansas and Oklahoma. Only the PAC has the room and interest to take on all 6 programs.

In my imagination, the B1g gets Kansas (15) and Oklahoma (16) immediately on board. That lures Missouri (17) in also. Texas quickly realizes that it is about to become a conference of one and decides that the total value offered by the B1G outweighs any special deals that the ACC and PAC may offer and joins (18). UConn (19) is added to fill in the east and no one complains with OU and Texas now in the fold. A conference spanning from the northeast megalopolis (Boston, NYC, Philly, DC) to Texas is enough for ND to give-up independence and joins as #20. The B1G for football divides into 4 pods, with the East pod consisting of 1) UConn, 2) Rutgers, 3) Maryland, 4) Penn St, 5) ND. The other pods are - North (Ohio St, Michigan, Michigan St, Indiana, Purdue), West (Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa), and South (Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas).

The ACC replaces ND with Cincinnati and then gets to 16 by adding a combination arrangement with Navy (football only plus maybe Lax) and Georgetown (all sports except football). The SEC replaces Missouri with West Virginia (sort of helps with DC, Midwest & profile is similar) and add OK St (#15) and Baylor or TCU (#16) as the Texas market is large enough to support 2 schools and neither would threaten A&M like Texas would. The PAC adds Kansas St (#13), Texas Tech (#14), Colorado St (#15), and BYU (#16) and then down the road adds 4 more to get to 20 (SD St, UNLV, Boise St, and Houston).

 

[Dooley]

A Big 12 breakup would not be a good thing for us. Put's too many free agents on the map with a much more attractive football resume.

So, if you consider that BYU, Cinc, UCF, Memphis, USF are in the same boat as us, you now throw TCU, TT, OSU, Baylor, etc. in there with us.

Expansion of Big12 is the most stable 'next step' in us moving somewhere.

I respectfully disagree. If you disband the B12 then, yes, the heavyweights (OU, UT, KU) will quickly find P4 homes. The rest of the conference would be left to fighting for a spot along with the rest of us. In the meantime, you can put together a pretty nice conference of B12 rejects and old Big East rejects while we all sit and wait for the promotion. A conference with UConn, Cinci, UCF, USF, OSU, ISU, KSU, Baylor, TT, WVU and maybe BYU (if they'd join...and if they do, maybe that lures Boise St and others??) is a helluva lot more fun and exciting than the conference that we currently play in. Would be good for both revenue sports, even if it's a clusterfahq of schools scattered all over the country (which is what we currently play in anyway).

 

[noeynox]

Smoke? All I read is wishful thinking. Man OU fans hate their conference. They give us a run for our money in that department.

 

[Sportsman5]

I respectfully disagree. If you disband the B12 then, yes, the heavyweights (OU, UT, KU) will quickly find P4 homes. The rest of the conference would be left to fighting for a spot along with the rest of us. In the meantime, you can put together a pretty nice conference of B12 rejects and old Big East rejects while we all sit and wait for the promotion. A conference with UConn, Cinci, UCF, USF, OSU, ISU, KSU, Baylor, TT, WVU and maybe BYU (if they'd join...and if they do, maybe that lures Boise St and others??) is a helluva lot more fun and exciting than the conference that we currently play in. Would be good for both revenue sports, even if it's a clusterfahq of schools scattered all over the country (which is what we currently play in anyway).

100% agree. If we sneak into the big 10 as part of a 4 team add or something like that, then obviously that would be ideal. However, unless the big 12 is disbanded and 10+ teams get into the other 4 conferences, then our conference will become stronger by teaming with the best of the ones left. This conference plus ECU and possibly one other is not much of a drop off from what the big 12 currently is from an athletic performance standpoint. Obviously OU and Texas bring better historic brands than some of the others.

 

[Durks07]

Smoke? All I read is wishful thinking. Man OU fans hate their conference. They give us a run for our money in that department.

Someone should go over there and tell them to shut the duck* up and be happy for what they have.

 

[ZooCougar]

If Texas and OU leave, then the Big 12 will seek to regenerate with AAC schools.

 

[31GuardTrap]

Someone should go over there and tell them to shut the duck* up and be happy for what they have.

That would be like telling the NYY to be happy with the 27 trophies they have.

 

[31GuardTrap]

If Texas and OU leave, then the Big 12 will seek to regenerate with AAC schools.

They would add Cincy, Memphis, SMU & UCF, get their CCG and tell UConn to go pound sand